自特朗普总统4月2日宣布加征关税后大跌以来，美股几乎收复了所有失地。但华尔街策略师并不相信股 市会继续走高。 Truist联席首席信息官Keith Lerner周一在给客户的一份报告中写道："与(市场)低点不同，市场目前消化 的'坏消息'要少得多，而目前的前景仍高度不确定，如果市场收到一些坏消息，缓冲空间就会减少。" 自4月8日美股触底以来，标普500指数上涨了11.5%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了约14.4%，道琼斯工业平 均指数上涨了约7.7%。4月9日，特朗普总统暂停关税为期90天，引发了股市上涨。但股市自那以来一 路走高，股票策略师指出，市场叙事并没有太大变化。 关税政策的不确定性依然很高，企业盈利的前景仍是一片混乱。经济学家认为，美国经济衰退的可能性 一直在上升。这可能意味着，在另一个催化剂出现之前，股市不会有太大的上涨空间。 摩根士丹利首席投资官Mike Wilson周日在致客户的报告中称，他预计标普500指数近期将在5000 - 5500 点区间交投。Wilson认为，与中国达成一项"实质性"降低实际关税税率的关税协议，可能是推动该指数 在5500点上方持续一段时间所需要的。美联储的降息——假设降息 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price opened under pressure from moving averages, showing a slight decline of 0.28% to $3307.89 per ounce, with a high of $3327.91 and a low of $3305.61 [1] - The gold market is expected to experience volatility, with resistance levels identified at $3340-42 and $3330-32, while support is noted at $3299 and $3305 [3] Group 2 - Melanie Baker from Royal Asset Management anticipates two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with signs of economic slowdown expected in the second half of the year [2] - Joerg Kraemer from Deutsche Bank emphasizes the need for the European Central Bank to act swiftly to address potential supply shocks and rising inflation, arguing against the reliance on mid-term forecasts [2]

受全球贸易前景不确定性的影响，惠誉评级近期大幅下调了世界经济增长预测0.4个百分点，预计今年 世界经济增长将跌破2%。若不计疫情影响，这将是2009年以来最弱的全球增长率。 惠誉评级首席经济学家布莱恩·库尔顿（Brian Coulton）在接受第一财经记者专访时表示，预计到今年 第四季度，美国经济同比增幅将放缓至0.5%以下。 "虽然不是经济衰退，但也放缓至爬行速度。当增长如此疲软时，无须太多额外的负面冲击就会将美国 推入衰退区域。"库尔顿补充道。 库尔顿认为，短期内，关税将导致美国的商品供应受到更多限制，并预测未来12个月核心消费品价格将 显著上涨。与此同时，关税不确定性叠加通胀、通胀预期飙升，"短期内伴随美国经济前景恶化，美联 储紧急降息的可能性很小。" 同时，他还对特朗普政府寻求对各国实现贸易平衡的执念感到"非常奇怪"，并认为这在实际操作中无法 实现，"若耐克工厂继续在越南生产运动鞋，越南将继续对美国保持贸易盈余，事实就是如此。" 库尔顿认为，中国经济有足够的勇气来应对特朗普的关税政策，"中国对欧洲和美国的出口体量相当， 并且对其他新兴市场经济体的出口也非常可观。中国本土价值链也在不断提升。"他解释称， ...

Economic Data Release - The U.S. is set to release key economic data that may impact market dynamics, including April ADP employment numbers, Q1 GDP, and March PCE [1] - The consensus expectation is for April ADP employment growth to decrease from 155,000 to 115,000 [2] Labor Market Insights - The JOLTS job openings fell to 7.19 million, the lowest since September 2020, indicating weakened labor demand due to employers postponing spending plans [2] - Layoffs in March doubled compared to the previous year, largely due to government efficiency actions [2] GDP Forecasts - The preliminary estimate for Q1 GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.3%, the slowest since early 2022, with some economists predicting a contraction of up to 2.4% [4] - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened to a record $162 billion in March, indicating significant economic impact from trade dynamics [3][4] Inflation Indicators - The median forecast for March core PCE is a month-over-month increase of 0.08%, down from 0.4% in February, while overall PCE is expected to decrease by 0.1% [5][6] - Despite the anticipated slowdown in inflation, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may exacerbate price pressures [7] Market Reactions - A potential unexpected contraction in the U.S. economy could heighten recession fears and influence aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8] - The market remains cautious ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll data, limiting directional bets [8]

美国4月消费者信心指数降至5年来最低值 中新社华盛顿4月29日电 (记者 沙晗汀)世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)当地时间29日公布数据显 示，美国4月消费者信心指数降至86，是自2020年5月以来的最低值。 数据显示，4月美国消费者信心指数为86，较3月数据下降7.9，该指数已经连续5个月下降。 具体来看，基于消费者对当前商业和劳动力市场状况评估的现状指数为133.5，较3月数据下降0.9。基于 消费者对收入、商业和劳动力市场状况短期展望的预期指数为54.4，较3月数据下降12.5，为自2011年10 月以来的最低值。通常情况下，如果该指数低于80，则预示着接下来将进入衰退。 数据显示，各年龄和收入群体消费者信心指数几乎都出现下降，其中35岁至55岁消费者和家庭年收入超 过12.5万美元消费者信心指数降幅最大。 世界大型企业联合会经济学家吉夏尔(Stephanie Guichard)表示，4月消费者信心指数降至新冠疫情期间 水平，消费者对未来收入、商业和劳动力市场均持悲观态度。其中，32.1%的消费者认为未来6个月就 业岗位会减少，该比例接近2009年4月经济危机时数据。 美媒认为，个 ...

Group 1 - The dynamic changes in the gold-oil ratio reflect market risk appetite, macroeconomic expectations, and geopolitical developments, serving as a leading indicator of the macroeconomy and a warning tool for systemic risks [2][3] - Historically, the gold-oil ratio has remained stable between 10 and 25 since 1970, with significant increases above 25 often preceding major financial or geopolitical events [2][6] - A significant rise in the gold-oil ratio typically indicates heightened market risk aversion and expectations of economic slowdown or recession [6][16] Group 2 - The gold-oil ratio reached historical peaks during various crises, such as 41.4 during the 1973 oil crisis and 30 during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, reflecting the interplay of geopolitical tensions and economic instability [7][10][12] - Recent increases in the gold-oil ratio are attributed to rising market risk aversion, expectations of economic recession, and weakened oil supply-demand dynamics, particularly influenced by U.S. tariff policies [16][17] - The U.S. tariff measures have escalated trade tensions, leading to downward revisions in global economic growth forecasts and increased concerns about oil demand [18][21] Group 3 - Financial institutions have adjusted their global oil demand growth forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs predicting a reduction of 300,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 400,000 barrels per day for 2026 due to trade tensions [21] - OPEC+ has entered a production increase phase, with plans to exceed market expectations, further exacerbating concerns about oil supply surplus [22][27] - The current oil price is under pressure from three main factors: escalating U.S. tariff policies, pessimistic oil demand outlook, and OPEC+ production increases [27][28]

智通财经APP获悉，美国商品贸易逆差在3月份出人意料地扩大至历史新高，因企业继续抢在关税生效 前进口商品，这预示美国第一季度经济产出数据可能将受到重大拖累，单月进口规模激增可能是美国企 业在关税生效前确保商品和材料供应的最后一搏。最近的预测数据显示美国经济疲软之势难以避免，许 多经济学家大幅下调了美国2025年GDP增速预期，一些经济学家甚至预测美国经济在2025年将陷入衰退 境地。 美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，3月份美国商品贸易赤字环比意外增长9.6%，达到1620亿美元。由于 进口在美国国内生产总值(GDP)核算中被计为负项，这一数据暗示美国政府将于美东时间周三公布的一 季度GDP初值将比经济学家们此前的普遍预期更为疲弱甚至有可能陷入负增长，并且已经促使多位经济 学家在创纪录的逆差数据公布后下调第一季度美国GDP以及2025年美国GDP预估。 当天公布的另一份报告显示，特朗普政府的关税政策同样令美国企业与普通家庭对经济前景和财务状况 的看法大幅恶化。美国谘商会(Conference Board)公布的统计数据显示，4月美国消费者们对未来六个月 的预期指数降至2011年以来最低水平。 美国商品贸易逆差扩大 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% at 40,527.62 points, the S&P 500 up 0.58% at 5,560.83 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.55% at 17,461.32 points [2] - International oil prices fell significantly, with Brent crude down 2.51% to $64.21 per barrel and WTI crude down 2.63% to $60.42 per barrel, marking the lowest closing prices in two weeks [11][10] Trade Negotiations and Economic Outlook - Market attention is focused on trade negotiations, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra stating that no trade agreement will be reached before Trump's announcement [4] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.8%, citing strong import growth and accelerated inventory accumulation [4] - A recent poll indicated that 59% of Americans believe the Trump administration has worsened the economic situation [8] Technology Sector Developments - Meta has launched a standalone AI application aimed at competing with ChatGPT, utilizing its Llama AI model and featuring a Discover feed for user interactions [7] - Major tech stocks saw mixed performance, with Tesla rising over 2% and Facebook increasing by 0.85% [5]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 4 月 30 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 2024 年 12 月 18 日美联储鹰派降息利空落地之后，金价在中国印度年底节日 消费旺季预期、特朗普 2.0 新政不确定性引发避险需求、美国经济短期滞涨风险 上升、特朗普交易热潮降温等因素影响下重新开始新一轮上涨，并重返 2024 年 3 月份以来的中级上涨通道；4 月初特朗普对等关税远超市场预期，金融市场大幅 波动导致投资者抛售包括黄金在内的金融资产，伦敦黄金一度在三个交易日内从 3168 美元/盎司调整至 2956 美元/盎司；而在市场波动性以及金融市场抛压逐步 减弱之后，来自全 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government's inconsistent tariff policy has led global investors to avoid U.S. dollar assets, raising concerns about a potential recession in the U.S. economy [1][2] - Deutsche Bank reported that foreign investment in U.S. assets has sharply declined over the past two months, with no signs of recovery even as market conditions appeared to improve [1] - Barclays Bank warned that the risk of a U.S. economic recession is increasing, attributing the slowdown to various factors, including the ambiguous signals from the U.S. tariff policy [2][3] Group 2 - George Saravelos from Deutsche Bank has shifted from a bullish to a bearish outlook on the dollar since February, warning that the tariff policy could lead to a significant sell-off of U.S. assets [1][2] - Saravelos predicts that by 2027, the euro will rise to 1.30 against the dollar, and the dollar will fall to 115 yen against the Japanese yen [2] - Barclays Bank's analysts expect that hard economic data will eventually reflect the negative impacts of tariffs, leading to a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy and potential recession in the coming quarters [3]