Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [3] - The primary industry added value was 1.1713 trillion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year; the secondary industry added value was 11.1903 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.9%; and the tertiary industry added value was 19.5142 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [3] Financial Data - As of April 2025, the M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating effective monetary policy and financial support for the economy [4] - The social financing scale, M2, and RMB loan growth rates were 8.7%, 8%, and 7.2% respectively, all exceeding nominal GDP growth, demonstrating strong financial support for the real economy [4] Price Indices - In April 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year [4] - The core CPI showed stable growth, and some industrial prices continued to improve year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in market demand [4] Industrial Profit - In the first quarter of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from a 3.3% decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase, driven by policy effects and significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [5]

Inflation Data - April CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected -0.2% and the previous value of -0.1%[11] - April PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, also better than the expected -2.8% and the previous value of -2.5%[11] Economic Stability - The year-on-year CPI remained stable compared to March, with a two-year average growth rate slightly improving to 0.1%[12] - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.1%, recovering from a 0.4% decline in March, outperforming the historical average of -0.1%[12] Core CPI and Demand - Core CPI remained low, indicating weak terminal demand and sluggish consumption, necessitating accelerated domestic demand policies[7] - Food prices showed a seasonal increase, with a 0.2% month-on-month rise, driven by supply factors[12] Policy Response - The Central Political Bureau proposed more proactive macro policies to address domestic demand shortages and external shocks[8] - A package of financial policies was launched in early May, including interest rate cuts and structural tools to stimulate domestic demand[8] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation exceeding expectations, and escalating trade tensions[17] - Ongoing monitoring of policy implementation, US-China tariff negotiations, and fiscal measures is essential for future economic stability[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weekly economic index declined, with the China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) at 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index decreased while the demand sub - index increased, and the supply - demand gap widened [1]. - Production showed a downward trend, with a decline in the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production and a significant drop in the automobile semi - steel tire operating rate [1]. - Infrastructure high - frequency indicators remained flat, with a slight decline in cement shipping and grinding rates and a slight increase in the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate [1]. - The growth rate of commercial housing sales slowed down, and the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [2]. - Consumption increased, with improvements in movie box office and domestic flight execution numbers, but a slight decline in the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [2]. - Exports decreased, as indicated by the sharp decline in South Korea's export year - on - year in early May and the drop in shipping freight rate indices [2]. - The price of pork increased, while the overall agricultural product wholesale price index decreased slightly. Industrial product prices generally declined [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The WEI was 5.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The production sub - index was 5.0%, down 0.6 percentage points, and the demand sub - index was 5.8%, up 0.3 percentage points. The supply - demand gap was 0.8%, up 0.9 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was 2.4%, down 3.4 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.6%, up 0.2 percentage points. The automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 58.4%, down 14.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average daily coal consumption of coastal power plants was 1.1%, down 0.9 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 39.3%, down 1.2 percentage points. The cement mill operating rate was 41.7%, down 1.8 percentage points. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, up 0.5 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 8.1%, up 4.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the floor area of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was - 17.4%, down 15.8 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 43.0%, up 0.8 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of domestic flight execution numbers was 4.2%, up 1.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 2.6%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Exports - South Korea's export year - on - year in early May was - 23.8%, down 43.1 percentage points from late April. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was - 33.6%, down 5.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was - 28.9%, down 4.6 percentage points [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was - 2.6%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.5%, up 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 5.9%, down 2.3 percentage points [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 9.4%, down 0.3 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 24.8%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was - 12.7%, down 0.9 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 21.3%, down 2.0 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 15.8%, down 1.9 percentage points [3].

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.05.13） 宏观及策略研究 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 进出口增速均超预期——2025 年 4 月进出口数据点评 基金研究 国防军工领涨行业 ，公募高质量发展行动方案落地——公募基金周报 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 输入性因素拖累明显——2025 年 4 月物价数据点评 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 1、CPI：食品和出行价格上行 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/05/13） 宏观及策略研究 2025 年 4 月 CPI 同比降幅持平，环比由降转涨。CPI 环比走高主要受食品价格和出行服务价格支撑，其中， 食品价格上行主要与牛肉进口量减少、部分地区 ...

Group 1: US-China Trade Talks - The US and China reached a consensus during high-level economic talks in Geneva, agreeing to cancel or suspend a significant portion of tariffs on each other's goods, with the US committing to eliminate 91% of tariffs and China reciprocating similarly [1][2] - This agreement is seen as a positive signal for global trade, indicating that trade disputes can be resolved through negotiation rather than escalation [1][2] Group 2: Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - In April, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, reflecting a stable price environment despite some fluctuations in specific categories [3][4] - The decline in PPI is attributed to falling international oil prices and price reductions in export sectors, particularly those exporting to the US [4] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Market - In April, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 905,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%, with domestic brands capturing a market share of 72.8% [5][6] - The growth in the new energy vehicle sector is supported by government policies and a shift in consumer preferences, with significant contributions to overall vehicle sales [5][6] Group 4: Alibaba's Organizational Changes - Alibaba has restarted its internal transfer mechanism and is moving away from its "1+6+N" organizational structure, aiming to concentrate resources on core businesses amid changing market conditions [7][8] - This shift is part of a broader trend among large companies to adapt to technological changes and market dynamics [8] Group 5: Apple iPhone Price Adjustments - Apple has reduced prices for several iPhone models in China, with significant discounts ahead of the upcoming "6·18" sales event, indicating a strategy to regain market share amid declining demand [9][10] - The high-end smartphone market is becoming increasingly competitive, with domestic brands gaining ground against Apple, which has seen its market share decrease from 75% to 54% over three years [9][10] Group 6: Japanese Investment Trends - Japanese investors have been actively buying overseas stocks, with net purchases reaching approximately 189 billion USD in April, indicating a shift in investment strategy amid domestic market caution [11][12] - This trend reflects a growing preference among Japanese investors for global diversification and risk management [12] Group 7: Wealth Management Products - The total amount of wealth management products subscribed by listed companies in China has decreased by 24.5% year-on-year, reaching a new low since 2022, driven by economic pressures and cautious corporate strategies [13][14] - The decline in investment in wealth management products is linked to reduced cash reserves and a focus on risk management among companies [13][14] Group 8: Stock Market Performance - On May 12, the Chinese stock market experienced a rally, with significant gains in military and robotics sectors, driven by positive sentiment from US-China trade negotiations [15][16] - The market showed broad-based gains, with over 4,100 stocks rising, indicating a strong recovery in investor confidence [15][16]

东 海 研 究 东 海 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 4月通胀环比回升且符合市场预期 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月CPI同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期。上游端国际大宗商品价格总体有所下降，但 内需型商品价格在基建以及消费等内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不 大，PPI降幅高于市场预期；4月份，消费政策刺激加强而且由于食品价格以及服务价格回 升，CPI环比上升，同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期，但短期通胀仍旧较低。目前随着 天气回暖，基建项目开工有所加快，钢材、水泥等需求逐步恢复，但房地产需求仍旧偏弱， 国内工业品需求整体偏弱；短期随着美国对中国加征高额关税，内需型商品价格在消费等 内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不大。国外由于及OPEC+增产以及美国 关税政策导致需求预期下降，原油价格整体下降；海外商品需求上升、美元走弱以及美国 加征关税导致成本上升，有色价格整体震荡反弹；但4月之后随着美国"对等关税"政策 落地，美国进口成本大幅上升，海外商品价格中枢整体上移。整体来看，上游国际大 ...

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/5/12 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - A - share major indexes closed up collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.82% to 3369.24 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.72% to 10301.16 points, and the Chi - Next Index rising 2.63% to 2064.71 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased slightly, and over 4100 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with power equipment and machinery leading the gains, defense and military industry leading the rise, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors leading the decline [2]. - China's economic fundamentals show that in April, CPI turned from decline to increase month - on - month, with the year - on - year decline unchanged; PPI's month - on - month decline remained unchanged, and the year - on - year decline slightly widened. The CPI - PPI scissors gap widened compared with the previous month, indicating potential pressure on future prices. In terms of trade, in April, China's imports and exports accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared with the first quarter, and foreign trade continued to grow steadily, showing resilience [2]. - The joint statement of the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks was released. The US will adjust the tariff rates on Chinese goods, and China will also adjust counter - tariffs on the US and suspend non - tariff measures, significantly alleviating the short - term risk of trade friction escalation. On May 7, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued a "package of financial policies", sending positive signals of stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations [2]. - Currently, China's economy shows dual characteristics of marginal improvement in the trade environment and gradual recovery of domestic demand. The phased easing of China - US tariffs significantly improves the external environment, and the combination of the month - on - month increase in CPI and the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies promotes the recovery of domestic demand, which may further boost market risk appetite. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF main contract (2506) was at 3853.0, up 47.0; IH main contract (2506) was at 2686.6, up 20.4; IC main contract (2506) was at 5688.0, up 82.8; IM main contract (2506) was at 6037.0, up 93.0 [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1181.2, up 24.6; IC - IF current - month contract spread was 1901.0, up 38.8; IM - IC current - month contract spread was 365.6, up 11.8; IC - IH current - month contract spread was 3082.2, up 63.4; IM - IF current - month contract spread was 2266.6, up 50.6; IM - IH current - month contract spread was 3447.8, up 75.2 [2]. - **Seasonal - to - Current - Month Spreads**: IF seasonal - to - current - month was - 98.4, down 1.8; IH seasonal - to - current - month was - 50.6, up 1.0; IC seasonal - to - current - month was - 261.4, down 14.8; IM seasonal - to - current - month was - 308.2, down 11.6 [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were - 33,290.00, up 1520.0; IH top 20 net positions were - 13,750.00, up 1805.0; IC top 20 net positions were - 14,346.00, up 1511.0; IM top 20 net positions were - 38,107.00, up 3839.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was at 3890.61, up 44.5; the Shanghai 50 index was at 2702.62, up 18.6; the CSI 500 index was at 5793.67, up 72.0; the CSI 1000 index was at 6167.46, up 85.4 [2]. - IF main contract basis was - 82.0, down 44.5; IH main contract basis was - 36.4, down 18.6; IC main contract basis was - 188.9, down 71.9; IM main contract basis was - 222.3, down 85.4 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 13,408.67 billion yuan, up 1184.81 billion yuan; margin trading balance (previous trading day) was 18,040.11 billion yuan, down 47.44 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume (previous trading day) was 1341.36 billion yuan, down 97.47 billion yuan; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume) was 0.0 billion yuan, up 430.0 billion yuan; net inflow of main funds was - 572.37 billion yuan, up 182.71 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 75.98%, up 53.57 percentage points; Shibor was 1.422%, down 0.075 percentage points; IO at - the - money call option closing price (2505) was 23.00, up 14.00; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility was 14.90%, up 1.40 percentage points; IO at - the - money put option closing price (2505) was 37.20, down 31.80; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility was 14.75%, up 1.11 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index was 6.95%, down 19.75 percentage points; trading volume PCR was 60.89%, down 5.20 percentage points; open interest PCR was 74.13%, up 1.49 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 7.50, up 4.30; technical aspect was at 7.60, up 5.40; capital aspect was at 7.40, up 3.20 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods in Executive Order No. 14257 issued on April 2, 2025. 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for the initial 90 days, while retaining the right to impose the remaining 10% of the tariffs on these goods as stipulated in the executive order. It will also cancel the additional tariffs on these goods imposed under Executive Orders No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and No. 14266 on April 9, 2025. China will correspondingly modify the ad - valorem tariffs on US goods in the Tax Commission Announcement No. 4 of 2025, suspend 24% of the tariffs for the initial 90 days, retain the right to impose the remaining 10% of the tariffs, and cancel the additional tariffs on these goods under Tax Commission Announcements No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025. China will also take necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US since April 2, 2025 [2]. - In April, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.1% year - on - year; PPI fell 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [2]. - In the first four months of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 14.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Among them, exports were 8.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.5%; imports were 5.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.2%. In April, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.6%. Among them, exports were 2.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.3%; imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8% [2]. 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On May 13 at 20:30, the US April core CPI year - on - year data will be released. On May 14 at 22:30, the US EIA crude oil inventory data (in 10,000 barrels) for the week ending May 9 will be released [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Deflationary pressures are worsening in China, primarily due to the impact of tariffs on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the overall economic environment [1][7] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains stable at 0.5% year-on-year, indicating some resilience despite broader deflationary trends [2][4] - The PPI has shown a significant decline, with a month-on-month decrease of -0.4%, driven by lower prices in oil, raw materials, and durable consumer goods [3][7] Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - Core CPI year-on-year remained at 0.5% in April, unchanged from March, while month-on-month seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) was 0.7% [2] - Food inflation reached its highest level in five months, primarily due to increased prices for fruit and beef, countering the effects of lower international oil prices [2] PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased to -2.7% in April, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts and weaker final demand [6][7] - Specific sectors such as textiles, wood products, chemicals, rubber, and plastics experienced accelerated price declines, indicating significant exposure to the US market [3][7] Outlook - The PPI is expected to slip below -3% year-on-year from the current -2.7% during the May-July period due to less favorable base effects and continued tariff impacts [4] - Core CPI is anticipated to soften sequentially as the effects of PPI pass through, although year-on-year figures may remain resilient due to a low base [4][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月11日 中国通胀数据快评 4 月国内 CPI 同比延续企稳态势，PPI 同比降幅继续走阔 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 预计5月CPI和PPI同比降幅均扩大。基于高频价格指标的表现，预计5月国内CPI食品价格环比约为-0.5%， CPI 非食品价格环比约为-0.2%，CPI 整体环比约为-0.3%，5 月 CPI 同比或回落至-0.3%；预计 5 月国内 PPI 环比约为-0.2%，5 月 PPI 同比或回落至-3.1%。 4 月中国 CPI 同比延续企稳态势 4 月中国 CPI 当月同比为-0.1%，持平上月；4 月核心 CPI 当月同比为 0.5%，亦持平上月；4 月消费品 CPI 当月同比为-0.3%，较上月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that the recovery of CPI in April is primarily driven by seasonal factors such as food and travel prices, while uncertainties from trade friction and weak recovery of private sector balance sheets are constraining price elasticity. Consequently, there is room for monetary policy to continue its efforts in price regulation in the second half of the year [1]. CPI Analysis - Food price recovery is supported by supply constraints from imports and seasonal factors, with beef prices rising due to drought in South America and a seasonal switch leading to higher fruit and vegetable prices [2]. - Strong travel demand during the Labor Day holiday resulted in a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month, exceeding seasonal expectations, while year-on-year growth remained at 0.5% [2]. PPI Analysis - In April, the PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%, indicating a persistent mismatch between supply and demand [3]. - The delay in the peak construction season, influenced by fiscal policies prioritizing debt repayment and capital injection into small banks, has affected the PPI recovery pace [3]. - The main drag on PPI comes from upstream raw materials and durable consumer goods, exacerbated by trade friction and weak coal demand following the end of the heating season [3]. Policy Implications - The article emphasizes a heightened focus on price regulation by policymakers, with the central bank's unexpected rate cuts reflecting this priority [3]. - The article notes that the uncertainties from trade friction and the weak recovery of private sector balance sheets are significant constraints on price elasticity, suggesting that there is still potential for monetary policy to exert influence in the coming months [3].