1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the yields of Treasury bond cash bonds weakened collectively, with the 1 - 7Y yields rising by about 1 - 3.75bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 3.40 and 3.80bp to 1.83% and 2.11% respectively. Treasury bond futures declined significantly across the board, with the TS, TF, T, and TL leading contracts falling by 0.04%, 0.15%, 0.27%, and 0.86% respectively. The weighted average rate of DR007 fluctuated around 1.48%. Domestically, in August, China's CPI decreased slightly year - on - year, the core CPI continued to rise, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow. The export growth slowed down in August, and exports to the US continued to decline under the influence of high tariffs. In August, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but remained below the boom - bust line, the supply and demand improved marginally, the non - manufacturing PMI expanded faster, and the composite PMI remained above the boom - bust line, with overall stable production and business activities. Overseas, the US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000 people in the year to March this year. Combined with the sharp rise in the unemployment rate in August, the market generally priced in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation in September, providing room for China's overall easing policy. Recently, the bond market has been weak under the influence of market risk preference and the public offering fund fee reform draft for comments, being more sensitive to negative factors and deviating from the fundamental logic in the short term, driven by pessimistic sentiment. Strategically, it is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and make band allocations after stabilization; also, pay attention to the opportunity of expanding term spreads brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Volumes - T main contract: The closing price was 107.490, down 0.27%, and the trading volume was 95,849, an increase of 26,161 [2] - TF main contract: The closing price was 105.425, down 0.15%, and the trading volume was 64,907, an increase of 11,273 [2] - TS main contract: The closing price was 102.350, down 0.04%, and the trading volume was 31,051, an increase of 3,470 [2] - TL main contract: The closing price was 114.760, down 0.86%, and the trading volume was 169,437, an increase of 36,249 [2] 3.1.2 Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.60, down 0.04; T12 - TL12 spread was - 7.27, up 0.67 - T2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.23, up 0.05; TF12 - T12 spread was - 2.07, up 0.14 - TF2512 - 2509 spread was - 0.14, down 0.05; TS12 - T12 spread was - 5.14, up 0.26 - TS2512 - 2509 spread was 0.03, up 0.01; TS12 - TF12 spread was - 3.08, up 0.12 [2] 3.1.3 Futures Positions - T main contract: The open interest was 204,788, an increase of 5,153. The top 20 short positions were 190,291, an increase of 6,293; the top 20 long positions were 194,998, an increase of 6,337; the net short position of the top 20 was 194,998, a decrease of 44 - TF main contract: The open interest was 121,420, an increase of 562. The top 20 long positions were 120,902, a decrease of 1,725; the top 20 short positions were 125,444, a decrease of 2,505; the net short position of the top 20 was 4,542, a decrease of 780 - TS main contract: The open interest was 66,548, an increase of 182. The top 20 long positions were 55,679, a decrease of 208; the top 20 short positions were 58,147, a decrease of 443; the net short position of the top 20 was 2,468, a decrease of 235 - TL main contract: The open interest was 133,236, an increase of 8,947. The top 20 long positions were 118,312, an increase of 6,312; the top 20 short positions were 124,106, an increase of 6,855; the net short position of the top 20 was 5,794, an increase of 543 [2] 3.2 Bond Market 3.2.1 CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds declined, such as 220017.IB (6y) at 105.9237, down 0.1905; 220019.IB (6y) at 99.0955, down 0.2378; etc [2] 3.2.2 Active Bonds - The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year active bonds remained unchanged, while the yields of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds increased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, and 1.10bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates 3.3.1 Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight silver - pledged repo rate was 1.3882%, up 8.82bp; the Shibor overnight rate was 1.4250%, up 0.60bp; the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5097%, up 5.97bp; the Shibor 7 - day rate was 1.4490%, down 1.80bp; the 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate was 1.5000%, up 1.00bp; the Shibor 14 - day rate was 1.5010%, up 0.10bp [2] 3.3.2 LPR Rates - The 1 - year LPR was 3.00%, unchanged; the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 304 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 229.1 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day [2] 3.5 Industry News - In August, the consumer market was generally stable, with the CPI unchanged month - on - month and down 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI rose 0.9% year - on - year, with the increase expanding for the 4th consecutive month. The PPI was unchanged month - on - month, with the year - on - year decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points to 2.9% [2] - The Minister of Finance reported on the budget implementation this year, stating that fiscal policies have been more proactive, and the next step is to make full use of proactive fiscal policies to support employment and foreign trade, cultivate new driving forces for development, improve people's livelihood, prevent and resolve risks, and improve fiscal governance [2] - From March 2024 to March 2025, the US private non - farm employment decreased by 880,000, with employment in trade, transportation, and public utilities, professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and government departments all decreasing [2]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 据新华社，受国务院委托，财政部部长蓝佛安作了关于今年以来预算执行情况的报告。报告指出，今年 以来，财政政策更加积极、接续发力，预算执行和财政运行总体平稳。报告介绍了落实十四届全国人大 三次会议预算决议情况，提出下一步财政重点工作安排：用好用足更加积极的财政政策，全力支持稳就 业稳外贸，加快培育壮大发展新动能，进一步保障和改善民生，持续用力防范化解重点领域风险，不断 提升财政治理效能和水平，严格落实过紧日子要求。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth and enhancing people's well-being, with a call for stronger fiscal and financial policies to unleash domestic demand potential [1][2][4] - A series of fiscal measures, including the allocation of 300 billion yuan in special government bonds for consumption upgrades, are being implemented to stimulate consumer spending [1][2] - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies aims to support consumer spending and stabilize market expectations [2][4] Group 2 - The government is focusing on innovative consumption scenarios to meet the diverse and multi-layered consumer demands, promoting new growth points in consumption [3] - Specific policies are being introduced to enhance sports consumption, recognizing its potential and broad consumer base, with financial support for related service providers [3] - The optimization of consumer services is crucial for ensuring that policies effectively benefit consumers, with a focus on simplifying processes for accessing financial support [4]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - After the summer holiday, domestic travel demand has significantly decreased, with subway passenger volume growth at -0.68% year-on-year and -7.25% month-on-month as of September 6[2] - In August, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.952 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% and a month-on-month increase of 6.4%[2] - Export resilience is noted, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaging 1978.4, down 1.15% month-on-month but up 0.54% year-on-year[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production generally declined in the first week of September, with average blast furnace operating rates down 3.09 percentage points to 80.38%[3] - The chemical industry shows a significant downturn, with PTA production and operating rates down 7.76% and 11.71 percentage points respectively, falling below 70% for the first time this year[3] - The construction sector remains sluggish, with rebar operating rates averaging 42.28%, down 1.6 percentage points[3] Price Performance - Pork prices have seen a narrowing decline, while fruit and vegetable prices have risen, with key monitored vegetable prices up 3.47% and fruit prices up 1.28% as of September 5[3] - WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.38% and Brent crude by 1.01% as of September 5, reflecting a general decline in black commodity prices[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated, with 820 billion yuan in special bonds and 2.671 trillion yuan in regular bonds issued this week, achieving 70.6% of the annual issuance target[3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to restart government bond purchases, signaling a more accommodative monetary policy[3] International Macro - The U.S. labor market shows significant weakness, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[1] - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 is high due to ongoing economic slowdown and policy pressures from the Trump administration[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report After continuous upward movement, high - level hot sectors such as AI have recently adjusted, and together with the shrinking market trading volume, the short - term index faces certain adjustment pressure. However, in the long - run, policies still support the capital market, and the main strategy is to go long on dips [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: The Chinese President proposed to build an AI application cooperation center; the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held a meeting; the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of repurchase operations; Wu Qing aimed to consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In July, industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment from January to July increased by 1.6%, and retail sales rose by 3.7% year - on - year. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points. In July, M1 and M2 growth rates were 5.6% and 8.8% respectively. The social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, and exports and imports increased by 7.2% and 4.1% respectively [10]. - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: In August, the stock market rose significantly, causing the 10 - year Treasury bond rate to rebound and the credit bond rate to decline, with a lower credit spread and loose liquidity [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long - term due to medium - low valuation and long - term discount; hold IF long positions for six months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3857.93, up 7.97%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 12696.15, up 15.32%, etc. [14]. - **Futures Market**: IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed varying degrees of increase [15]. 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: In Q2 2025, GDP growth was 5.2%. In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%. In July, consumption growth was 3.7%, exports increased by 7.2%, and investment growth was 1.6% [31][34][37]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the revenue growth rate was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the net profit growth rate was 2.5% year - on - year and down 1.0% quarter - on - quarter [40]. 3.4 Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate rebounded, and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate is presented in the chart [43]. - **Credit Environment**: In July 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates were 5.6% and 8.8% respectively. The social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, mainly due to government bonds and bill financing growth, while resident and corporate credit data declined [54]. 3.5 Capital Flows - **Inflow**: This week, 20.528 billion shares of partial - stock funds were newly established, and ETF trading volume increased rapidly. In August, the margin trading balance increased by nearly 300 billion yuan, reaching a record high [60][63]. - **Outflow**: In August, major shareholders had a net increase of - 34.467 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 7 [66]. 3.6 Valuation - The price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 11.83, 13.85, 32.09, and 44.68 respectively; the price - to - book ratios (LF) were 1.29, 1.44, 2.13, and 2.37 respectively [70].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite facing severe external conditions, Bosnia's economic growth remains resilient, with a projected acceleration to 2.5% in 2024 and a return to a potential level of 3% by 2027 [1] - The report highlights that consumption levels were suppressed in the first quarter due to political uncertainty, but high-frequency indicators show a recovery in consumption starting from the second quarter [1] - Overall inflation is expected to rapidly decline to 1.7% in 2024 from 6.1% in 2023, before rising to 2.3% in May 2025, with core inflation stabilizing around 4% [1] Group 2 - The report identifies several downward risks to Bosnia's economic outlook, including trade uncertainties, a slowdown in the European economy, commodity price volatility, tightening global financial conditions, and escalating political tensions [2] - It emphasizes the need for Bosnia's fiscal policy to focus on medium-term consolidation, rebuilding buffer space, and improving the quality of public spending, supported by a strong structural reform agenda [2] - The report suggests that Bosnia should promptly implement priority actions for anti-money laundering organizations to avoid being placed on a gray list, which could hinder its ability to gain further growth benefits [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Invesco Great Wall Zhi Yuan Mixed A Fund (017860) reported a profit of 50.86 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net value growth rate of 8.66% [2] - As of September 3, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 0.823 yuan, and the fund manager, Han Wenqiang, has managed four funds that have all yielded positive returns over the past year [2][5] - The fund's one-year compounded unit net value growth rate reached 44.81%, the highest among its peers, while the lowest was 18.14% for another fund managed by the same manager [2][5] Group 2 - The fund's weighted average price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 24.5 times, which is lower than the peer average of 26.16 times [10] - The weighted average price-to-book ratio (LF) is about 1.34 times, compared to the peer average of 2.38 times, and the weighted average price-to-sales ratio (TTM) is around 0.65 times, against a peer average of 2.05 times [10] - From a growth perspective, the fund's weighted revenue growth rate (TTM) for the first half of 2025 was -0.06%, and the weighted net profit growth rate (TTM) was -0.07% [16] Group 3 - As of June 30, 2025, the fund's total assets amounted to 652 million yuan, with a total of 4,971 holders owning 857 million shares [31][34] - The fund's turnover rate over the last six months was approximately 147%, consistently lower than the peer average [37] - The fund has a high concentration of holdings, with the top ten stocks accounting for over 60% of the portfolio for nearly two years [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a band - trading approach for treasury bond futures. It indicates that the bond market may enter a period of oscillation as the 10 - year treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.75%. It advises against chasing high prices and recommends taking profit on previous long positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Conditions - On Thursday, treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow intraday fluctuations. Medium - and long - term bonds closed higher, while short - term bonds weakened at the end of the session. Spot bond yields first declined and then rose, with most turning upward by the end of the day. The open market had a net withdrawal of 20.35 billion yuan, and the funds were loose, with DR001 remaining at 1.31% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - The second group leader meeting of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank aims to jointly ensure the better implementation of fiscal and monetary policies - Bloomberg reported that China is considering measures to curb stock market speculation and seek stable development of the A - share market - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested starting interest rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The opening of spot bonds continued the upward trend from the previous day's close, driving treasury bond futures to open higher. Then, each variety basically maintained a narrow - range shock. The A - share market fell for the third consecutive day, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by up to 2% during the session, and the previous hot sectors experiencing greater declines. However, the bond market did not gain more upward momentum. After the futures market closed, spot bonds weakened, indicating a lack of further upward drivers in the bond market [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2512 was at 102.44 (unchanged), TF2512 at 105.745 (up 0.055), T2512 at 108.27 (up 0.15), and TL2512 at 117.4 (up 0.37) - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 429 to 76,004 hands, TF by 3,428 to 142,981 hands, T by 4,090 to 217,136 hands, and TL decreased by 2,021 to 140,684 hands - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) was - 0.0299 (down 0.0074), TF basis (CTD) was 0.0269 (down 0.0577), T basis (CTD) was 0.3866 (down 0.0537), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.8792 (up 0.1384) - **Trading Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume increased by 5,941 to 31,545 hands, TF by 501 to 62,934 hands, T decreased by 2,944 to 83,913 hands, and TL decreased by 21,692 to 135,244 hands [4]

Group 1 - The recent performance of the euro against the dollar has been "lackluster," leading to doubts about the sustainability of the rebound, but market sentiment is not as pessimistic as it seems, indicating a potential for further upward movement after adjustments [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy is increasingly perceived as dovish, suggesting a shift towards easing and rate cuts, which diminishes the dollar's attractiveness as investors reassess their expectations for interest rate differentials [1] - Structural issues in the U.S. economy are causing investors to question how long the dollar can maintain its strength, indicating a shift in market sentiment from reliance on the dollar to caution regarding its future performance [1] Group 2 - In the Eurozone, while short-term economic data is not impressive, Germany's plans to increase fiscal spending are seen as a potential game-changer, which could lead to a re-evaluation of the euro's value in the market [3] - If Europe implements more aggressive fiscal policies alongside previous trade progress with the U.S., the euro could be viewed as an asset with recovery potential rather than just a defensive currency [3] - Analysts generally expect the euro to reach 1.20 against the dollar by the end of the year, with potential for further gains in the coming years, which could attract more investment at lower levels [3] Group 3 - The current market atmosphere indicates that while there are risks of a decline for the dollar, the euro is viewed as bullish in the medium to long term, though short-term movements require patience and caution [4] - This period may represent a "prelude to a significant directional change" in the market, suggesting that a more substantial trend may be developing [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The futures index still has support [3]. 3. Key Points from Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Index Data - On September 3, all four major futures index contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped 0.96%, IH dropped 1.29%, IC dropped 1.3%, and IM dropped 1.22% [1]. - The total trading volume of futures indices rebounded on this trading day, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 876 lots, IH increased by 5491 lots, IC decreased by 6690 lots, and IM increased by 551 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 11,866 lots, IH decreased by 7211 lots, IC decreased by 9914 lots, and IM decreased by 2021 lots [1][2]. 3.2 Basis of Futures Indices - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM are presented in the report, showing the differences between the spot and futures prices [1]. 3.3 Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures - The changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members in various futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) are provided, including the increase or decrease in long and short positions and the net changes [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank held its second meeting to discuss issues such as financial market operations, government bond issuance management, central bank bond trading operations, and the improvement of the offshore RMB government bond issuance mechanism. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16% to 3813.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.95%. The A - share trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan, down from 2.91 trillion yuan the previous day [6].