虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 每当市场出现亏钱效应，投资者总会陷入这样的灵魂拷问：A股的牛市还在吗？ 2024年9月，A股在极度悲观的预期下迎来了大幅反弹。从波浪理论视角来看，这一反弹正是牛市启动第一 波 （1浪） 的典型特征——悲观预期的修复与估值的回归，在这之后就是2浪的调整。 以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 当2浪的调整结束且未创新低时，市场开始企稳并逐渐回升。在这一阶段，敏锐的投资者已开始察觉基本面 正在改善，并逐步进场。此时，股市上涨的动力逐渐由基本面支撑，投资者信心恢复。因此，3浪通常是五 浪上涨中持续时间最长、幅度最大的阶段。 显然，眼下我们仍然处于2浪漫长的调整中，这一调整幅度远超过市场预期，已经让不少投资者陷入疑惑： 牛市是否依然存在？ 调整虽未结束，但形势也没有想象中那么悲观 。 市场情绪进入降温模式 2024年底，随着Deepseek的横空出世和春晚机器人的亮相，AI的技术革命终于为A股市场吹响了号角。正如 洪灏老师所说，Deepseek的崛起打破了美国科技股 ...

Core Insights - The future of AI will favor companies with strong scenarios, data, and customer bases, while those lacking these elements may be quickly disrupted [1] - China's technological advantages are built on a robust manufacturing industry, a large domestic market, and a significant engineering workforce [1][14] - The real estate market in China may reach its final clearing phase by 2025, with a significant reduction in inventory over the past four years [21][22] - The investment strategy emphasizes selecting companies with at least 15% growth potential over three years [1][47] Group 1 - The valuation levels of representative technology companies in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are no longer at the bottom, with some entering a "brave game" phase [1] - Despite the rise in the market due to the emergence of DeepSeek, opportunities in the technology sector are expected to continue to emerge [1][7] - The current investment opportunity cost in both A-shares and H-shares is low, with many stocks still at long-term valuation bottoms [2] Group 2 - The portfolio is primarily focused on high positions with minimal adjustments, concentrating on Hong Kong stocks while reducing positions in less elastic sectors [3][4] - The stock allocation in the portfolio is over 80%, with convertible bonds making up about 16%, and a significant concentration in the communication, chemical, and electronics sectors [4] Group 3 - China's technological breakthroughs are the result of decades of accumulation, particularly in the AI field, which is expected to see significant developments by 2025 [6][7] - The demand-side advantages in AI applications position China favorably against the U.S., which leads in supply-side capabilities [7][10] Group 4 - The real estate market's supply-demand relationship is expected to gradually balance at low levels, with a significant reduction in inventory since 2020 [22][28] - The structural differentiation in real estate investment returns will determine price performance, with rental yields currently low [25][26] Group 5 - The key to stable growth in China lies in stimulating domestic demand, which requires an increase in consumer income and confidence [30][32] - Structural macro policies aimed at boosting consumption will gradually be implemented, but will take time to materialize [33][36] Group 6 - The investment strategy focuses on high positions and identifying a "anchor" asset that is less likely to lose value in the current environment [58][59] - The portfolio has been adjusted to reflect changes in market conditions, particularly in the technology sector, with a notable increase in holdings of Hong Kong internet stocks [50][52] Group 7 - The valuation gap between China's "terrific 10" and the U.S. "MAGA 7" is narrowing, but the technological content of Chinese companies is still relatively lower [68][70] - The current market dynamics suggest that while some sectors may be undervalued, it is essential to analyze specific structures within the "East rises, West falls" narrative [72][75] Group 8 - The current phase in the Hong Kong technology sector is not yet a time for profit-taking, as AI applications continue to evolve [76] - The performance of Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies has garnered market attention, with no significant bubble observed in valuations [78]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513820) has seen significant inflows, with nearly 90 million yuan in net inflows over the past 12 days, driven by strong dividend announcements from major companies like China Mobile and strategic partnerships with Alibaba [1][4][9]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Inflows - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (513820) has rebounded, currently up 0.63%, and has experienced a premium widening to 0.26% [1]. - The fund has accumulated nearly 90 million yuan in net inflows over the last 12 days, bringing its total size to over 2 billion yuan [1][9]. - The ETF has attracted over 560 million yuan in inflows over the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [9]. Group 2: Company Announcements and Dividends - China Mobile has announced a substantial dividend of over 50 billion yuan, making it the "dividend king" with a total dividend payout of 514 million yuan [4]. - A total of 17 constituent stocks of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF have announced their 2024 financial results, with a combined dividend payout of 286.9 billion Hong Kong dollars [4]. - The dividend yield of the ETF is currently at 7.71%, leading among major dividend indices [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Market Trends - China Mobile has entered into a strategic partnership with Alibaba to collaborate on digital infrastructure and AI data centers [4]. - The recent issuance of the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Innovation and Development of Intelligent Computing Cloud Industry (2025-2027)" in Shanghai aims for the industry to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2027, indicating growth potential for cloud service providers like China Mobile and China Unicom [3]. - Insurers have been actively increasing their stakes in high-dividend stocks, with over 10 instances of stake increases this year, reflecting a trend towards stable cash returns [6][7].

Economic Performance - In January-February, general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, a significant drop of 2.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9% year-on-year, down 6.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating weakened economic recovery momentum[4] - Local government fund budget revenue dropped by 10.7% year-on-year, a decline of 15.6 percentage points from the previous month[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - Future fiscal policy will focus on enhancing social security systems to boost consumer spending and support economic transformation[5] - The current fiscal expenditure growth rate is 3.4%, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in fiscal support[4] Real Estate Market - New and second-hand housing sales have shown continuous improvement, suggesting that the real estate market's drag on the economy may be less severe than last year[7] - The performance of the real estate market is expected to provide support for year-on-year economic growth rates[7] Technology Sector Trends - Recent trading around technology stocks has shown signs of retreat, with a shift towards dividend and cyclical stocks reflecting a decrease in risk appetite[10] - The market's focus may shift towards undervalued cyclical stocks during the adjustment phase of technology stocks, indicating a potential change in investment strategy[10] Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China announced a net injection of 630 billion yuan through MLF operations, marking the first net injection since July of the previous year[11] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate, with a slight adjustment in the pace of balance sheet reduction, reflecting increased uncertainty in the economic outlook[15][16]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Dividend Index ETF (513630) has seen continuous net inflows for five days, indicating strong institutional interest in dividend assets [1] - As of March 21, 2025, the ETF's latest scale reached 9.488 billion yuan with 7.117 billion shares, making it the largest among Wind's cross-border strategy index ETFs [1] - The ETF has attracted a total net inflow of 350 million yuan over the past five days, with a peak single-day inflow of 170 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Over 120 A-share listed companies announced cash dividend plans alongside their 2024 annual reports, with 13 companies offering dividend yields exceeding 3% [2] - Despite a cooling trend in dividend asset markets, the stable profitability and low valuation of these assets provide a safety margin, suggesting a favorable time for repositioning in the dividend sector [2] - Morgan Asset Management has launched a series of international "Dividend Toolbox" funds, offering diversified dividend investment solutions covering A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Asian markets [2] Group 3 - The Morgan Asia Dividend Fund focuses on high-dividend assets in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, and has won the "Golden Bull Overseas Mutual Fund" award for three consecutive years [3] - The Morgan CSI A50 ETF targets core A-share assets and has implemented a quarterly mandatory dividend mechanism, accumulating nearly 100 million yuan in dividends for 2024 [3] - The Morgan CSI A500 ETF also features a quarterly dividend mechanism and is among the first index funds included in personal pension plans, providing more investment options for individual pension investors [3] Group 4 - In the context of a new normal in interest rates, Morgan Asset Management aims to identify relatively "certain" quality asset investment opportunities, leveraging its global market insights and research capabilities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and strategies of various "Fixed Income +" funds in the current market environment, highlighting their unique risk-return characteristics and providing insights for investors to consider different options for asset allocation [2][15]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Strategies - The article highlights four funds with different strategies: 1. Huaan Enhanced Income Bond focuses on "Fixed Income + Convertible Bonds" 2. Huatai-PB Dingli Flexible Allocation Mixed focuses on "Fixed Income + Cyclical Stocks" (mainly gold stocks) 3. E Fund Rui Jin Mixed focuses on "Fixed Income + Dividends" 4. China Merchants Anyang Bond focuses on "Fixed Income + Quantitative Stock Selection" [2]. - Huaan Enhanced Income Bond, managed by Zheng Weishan, achieved a 1-year return of 11.41%, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 5.86%, ranking in the top 2% of its category [3][4]. - Huatai-PB Dingli Flexible Allocation Mixed, managed by Zheng Qing and Dong Chen, reported a 1-year return of 6.72%, with a flexible bond portfolio primarily consisting of financial bonds [7][8]. - E Fund Rui Jin Mixed, managed by Yang Kang, achieved a 1-year return of 10.90%, focusing on high-dividend assets and actively adjusting stock positions based on market conditions [10][11]. - China Merchants Anyang Bond, managed by Yin Xiaohong and Cai Zhen, reported a 1-year return of 9.72%, utilizing a "Fixed Income + Quantitative" strategy to balance risk and return [12][14]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Asset Allocation - Huaan Enhanced Income Bond has shifted its bond holdings to focus on convertible bonds, maintaining over 70% in this asset class since 2023, which provides both defensive and offensive characteristics [3][5]. - Huatai-PB Dingli's bond holdings are primarily in financial bonds, with a flexible allocation strategy that adjusts based on market conditions, aiming to capture opportunities in a declining interest rate environment [7][8]. - E Fund Rui Jin Mixed employs a strategy focused on high-dividend stocks, adjusting its equity positions based on specific market indicators to optimize returns while managing risk [10][11]. - China Merchants Anyang Bond utilizes a quantitative approach for stock selection, focusing on industry rotation and maintaining a balance between different sectors to adapt to market changes [13][14]. Group 3: Conclusion and Investor Considerations - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying strategies of "Fixed Income +" funds, as different approaches can lead to varying performance outcomes, allowing investors to find suitable products based on their risk preferences and investment goals [15].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious but optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2024, indicating a potential for structural opportunities to increase compared to 2023 [1][2] Core Views - The report identifies three main perspectives on the A-share market: 1. The market is expected to stabilize, avoiding extremes of caution or exuberance seen in previous years [1] 2. Market fluctuations are anticipated to be more frequent but with smaller amplitudes, with a better environment expected in the second half of the year [2] 3. The importance of bottom-up stock selection is expected to rise, contrasting with the previous year's focus on top-down macro strategies [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The report posits that the significant market bottom occurred in September of the previous year, with limited chances of returning to that level in the next 1-2 years [1] - It anticipates a return to normal risk preferences, with structural opportunities likely to increase in 2024 [1] Market Rhythm - The report notes that the market's rhythm in the previous year was characterized by significant ups and downs, while this year is expected to have quicker changes with smaller fluctuations [2] - The second half of the year is projected to have a better market environment compared to the first half [2] Asset Allocation - The report emphasizes a shift from top-down macro strategies to bottom-up stock selection, indicating that last year's major events have already occurred, leading to a focus on ongoing trends rather than new turning points [3] - It highlights three key investment themes for the year: 1. Not all growth stocks are worth buying, with a focus on technology growth in the first half and renewable energy manufacturing in the second half [4][11] 2. Some resilient external demand should still be considered [11] 3. Dividend assets are viewed as offering structural opportunities rather than a broad trend [12] Sector Performance - The report indicates that the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sector has seen significant trading volume, accounting for approximately 46% of the A-share market recently [6] - It draws parallels to the market conditions of 2013, where the overall index remained flat while certain sectors, like the ChiNext, experienced substantial growth [6][10] Policy Support - The report suggests that policy support will continue to be a trend, with themes such as mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and debt repayment expected to remain relevant [13]

近日，中国保险资产管理业协会公布了2025年第一期保险资产管理业投资者信心调查结果。本次调查共有120家保险机构参与，包括36家保险资产管理机构和84 家保险公司。 调查结果显示，多数保险机构对2025年债券市场、A股市场均持较乐观态度。 据金融监管总局官网披露，截至去年四季度末，保险公司资金运用余额33.26万亿元。 2025年，保险机构看好沪深300和中证A500相关股票，看好电子、银行、计算机、公共事业、家用电器、食品饮料、通信和国防军工等行业，关注新技术、红利资 产和高分红高股息等投资领域，认为企业盈利增速以及消费、地产复苏情况是影响2025年A股市场的主要因素。 基金投资方面，保险资管机构倾向配置的类型依次为指数型基金、股票型基金、纯债基金、固收+基金。保险公司倾向依次为股票型基金、混合偏股型基金、二级 债基、指数型基金。 境外投资：债券受青睐 资产配置偏好：债券仍是首选 在资产配置偏好上，调查结果显示，债券仍然是我国保险机构2025年首选的投资资产，其次是股票和银行存款。 多数保险机构预期2025年各类资产配置比例与2024年基本保持一致，超过半数的保险机构有可能适度或微幅增加债券和股票投资。 多 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong investment rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly for the traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) sector, which is expected to benefit from multiple factors in 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The TCM sector is anticipated to experience a gradual reduction in performance pressure in 2025, driven by factors such as improved earnings, favorable policies, decreasing costs, rising demand, and consolidation within the industry [4][6]. - The report identifies five main investment opportunities within the TCM sector, including high-end OTC products, state-owned enterprise reforms, hospital-based TCM, dividend-paying assets, and turnaround situations for struggling companies [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Outlook - The TCM sector faced overall revenue decline in 2024, with a total revenue of 270.61 billion yuan, down 3.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 29.88 billion yuan, down 8.55% year-on-year [10]. - The number of companies forecasting negative net profit growth in 2024 is 22 out of 34, while only 12 companies expect positive growth [16]. 2. Policy Developments - The third batch of national TCM procurement results showed an average price reduction of 63%, but the impact on listed companies is limited due to the small number of affected products [20]. - A new essential drug list is expected to be released in 2025, which may include more TCM products, enhancing their market presence [24]. 3. Cost Factors - The TCM material price index has been declining since July 2024, which is expected to alleviate cost pressures for TCM companies and improve their gross margins starting in 2025 [28]. 4. Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in flu cases has driven demand for related treatment products, leading to a quicker clearance of inventory for cold and cough medications [34]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The TCM industry is experiencing frequent mergers and acquisitions, which are likely to enhance industry concentration and provide performance flexibility for related listed companies [39]. 6. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights five key investment themes: 1. High-end OTC TCM products, particularly those using natural bezoar as a key ingredient, are expected to see improved margins as supply stabilizes [45][54]. 2. State-owned enterprise reforms are anticipated to yield positive changes in management and strategic planning [7]. 3. Hospital-based TCM products are expected to gain market share due to regulatory support [7]. 4. Companies with strong cash flow and high dividend potential are viewed favorably [7]. 5. Companies currently facing challenges are expected to improve as inventory pressures ease [7]. 7. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Kunming Pharmaceutical, Tongrentang, Darentang, Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical, Dong'e Ejiao, China Resources Sanjiu, Yunnan Baiyao, Tianshili, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, and others for potential investment opportunities [4].

平安人寿表示，本次举牌农业银行H股股票的资金来源是平安人寿的保险责任准备金。参与此次举 牌的关联方为平安资管，是公司的受托方，也是由同一控股股东中国平安控股的公司。平安资管通 过竞价交易方式买入农业银行H股股票。截至2025年2月17日，平安人寿持有农业银行H股股票的账 面余额为64.63亿元，占上季度末总资产的比例为0.14%。 截至2024年12月31日，平安人寿权益类资产账面余额为9611亿元，占2024年三季度末总资产的比例 为20.96%。截至2024年9月30日，平安人寿总资产为48258.96亿元，净资产为3176.13亿元，综合偿 付能力充足率为200.45%。 平安人寿四度举牌银行股 在举牌农业银行H股不久前，平安人寿已举牌三家银行股。 2月24日，中国保险行业协会官网显示， 中国平安旗下子公司平安人寿 发布关于委托投资农业银行 H股股票举牌的信息披露公告。 平安资管受托平安人寿资金，投资于农业银行H股股票，于2月17日 达到农业银行H股股本的5%，触发平安人寿举牌。 这是去年底平安人寿举牌工商银行H股、今年1月份举牌邮储银行H股、招商银行H股后，近期第四 次出手举牌银行股。 以每股4.51 ...