证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·金融产品 金融产品跟踪周报 权益 ETF 系列：关注结构变化，行情可能临 近变盘点 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 基金配置建议： 风险提示：1）模型基于历史数据测算，未来存在失效风险；2）宏观经济 不及预期；3）发生重大预期外的宏观事件。 2025 年 07 月 12 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 执业证书：S0600524120016 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -2% 5% 12% 19% 26% 33% 40% 47% 54% 61% 非银金融 沪深300 2025-07-12 《国有险企长周期考核细则落地，充 分发挥险资长期资本优势》 2025-07-12 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 2024/7/12 2024/11/10 2025/3/11 2025/7/10 ◼ A 股市场行情概述：（2025.7.7-2025.7.11） ◼ 主要宽基指数涨跌幅：排名前三名的宽基指数 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassed 3500 points, reaching a high of 3512.67 points, the highest intraday level in nearly eight months, but closed at 3493.05 points, down 0.13% [1][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell slightly by 0.06% to 10581.8 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.16% [1] - Total A-share trading volume was 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 528 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The market showed sector divergence, with Wind's multi-financial and education indices leading gains, while precious and base metals indices saw significant declines [1] - Notable concept indices included Kimi, short drama games, and chicken industry indices, which rose by 2.22%, 2.13%, and 1.71% respectively, while rare earth, insurance, and GPU indices fell by around 1.8% [1][4] Investment Sentiment - Southbound funds showed a net inflow of approximately 9.256 billion Hong Kong dollars, indicating a willingness to invest despite the overall market decline [2] - Analysts suggest that while the risk of a significant market pullback is relatively low, further upward movement requires more fundamental support [2][12] Recent Trends - From July 1 to July 9, the Shanghai Composite Index, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.41%, 1.47%, and 1.11% respectively [6] - The construction materials, comprehensive, steel, banking, and media indices were the top five performing sectors during this period, with gains of 6.65%, 6.18%, 5.55%, 4.67%, and 3.75% respectively [10] Fund Flows - There has been a noticeable increase in fund inflows into thematic ETFs, with several ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [11] - The A-share financing balance has remained above 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating strong leverage sentiment among investors [11] Future Outlook - Analysts emphasize the importance of fundamental improvements for sustained market growth, with a focus on high ROE assets as a favorable investment strategy [12][13] - The current market environment is seen as a good opportunity for long-term investments, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, which are expected to yield significant returns over time [13]

- The report mentions the construction of an "industry crowding monitoring model" to track the crowding levels of Shenwan first-level industry indices on a daily basis. The model identifies industries with high crowding levels, such as utilities and building materials, and those with lower levels, like automobiles and food & beverage. It also highlights significant daily changes in crowding levels for industries like real estate and utilities[6] - Another model mentioned is the "premium rate Z-score model," which is used to screen ETF products for potential arbitrage opportunities. The model employs rolling calculations to identify ETFs with potential risks of price corrections[6] - The industry crowding monitoring model evaluates crowding levels based on daily fund flows and crowding metrics, providing insights into industry trends and fund allocation changes over recent trading days[6] - The premium rate Z-score model calculates Z-scores for ETF premium rates, identifying deviations from historical averages that may signal arbitrage opportunities or risks[6] - The industry crowding monitoring model is qualitatively assessed as effective for identifying industry trends and fund allocation shifts, aiding investors in decision-making[6] - The premium rate Z-score model is qualitatively evaluated as useful for detecting arbitrage opportunities and potential risks in ETF pricing[6] - The industry crowding monitoring model highlights utilities and building materials as having high crowding levels, while automobiles and food & beverage exhibit lower levels. Real estate and utilities show significant daily crowding level changes[6] - The premium rate Z-score model identifies ETFs with potential arbitrage opportunities based on deviations in premium rates, though specific Z-score values are not provided in the report[6]

证券研究报告：金融工程报告 发布时间：2025-07-07 研究所 分析师:肖承志 SAC 登记编号:S1340524090001 Email:xiaochengzhi@cnpsec.com 研究助理:李子凯 SAC 登记编号:S1340124100014 Email:lizikai@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《 谷 歌 推 出 Gemini Robotics On- Device 大模型，快手开源 keye-VL 多模 态模型——AI 动态汇总 20250630》 - 2025.07.02 《指数创下年内新高但与题材炒作存 在较大割裂，银行 ETF 获大幅净流入— — 行 业 轮 动 周 报 20250629 》 - 2025.06.30 《ETF 资金大幅净流入金融地产，石油 油气扩散指数环比提升靠前——行业 轮动周报 20250629》 – 2025.06.23 《融资资金持续大幅净流入医药，GRU 行业轮动调出银行——行业轮动周报 20250615》 – 2025.6.16 《资金博弈停牌个股大幅流入信创 ETF，概念轮动速度较快——行业轮动 周报 20250608》 - 2025.06.0 ...

近期获杠杆资金连续融资净买入的ETF基金有70只，居前的为券商ETF（7天）、科创板人工智能ETF（6天）、旅游ETF（5天）、消费电子ETF富国（5 天）、科创板50ETF（4天）等，分别净买入8597.21万元、995.75万元、969.53万元、148.68万元、5898.58万元。其中，科创板50ETF近4天获杠杆资金加速 买入，近4天杠杆资金累计流入5898.58万元。 近期获杠杆资金连续融券净卖出的ETF基金有11只，居前的为沪深300ETF（7天）、上证50ETF（5天）、沪深300ETF（4天）、证券ETF（3天）、中证 1000ETF（2天）等，分别净卖出554.45万元、2508.39万元、4039.92万元、583.29万元、9312.01万元。其中，中证1000ETF近2天获杠杆资金加速流出，近2 天杠杆资金累计流出9312.01万元。 2025年7月4日，共204只ETF基金获融资净买入，27只ETF基金融券净卖出。融资净买入金额超500万元的有36只，黄金ETF(518880.SH)、可转债 ETF(511380.SH)、恒生科技指数ETF(513180.SH)、政金债券ETF(5 ...

| | | | | | | NED 第1章 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 净流入额(亿元) | 基金份额变化(亿份) | 总规模(亿元) | 涨跌幅 (%) | 基金管理人简称 | | 511360.OF | 海富通中证短融ETF | 8.25 | 0.07 | 506.49 | 0.02 | 海富通基金 | | 513180.OF | 华夏恒生科技ETF | 6.82 | 9.7 | 289 | -0.56 | 华夏其余 | | 511260.OF | 国泰上证10年期国债ETF | 6.34 | 0.05 | 147.57 | 0.01 | 国泰基金 | | 513130.OF | 华泰柏瑞南方东英恒生科技ETF | 6.34 | 9.16 | 267.41 | -0.57 | 华泰相瑞喜舍 | | 513980.OF | 景顺长城中证港股通科技ETF | 5.01 | 7.09 | 149.97 | -0.56 | 景顺长城基金 | | 159792.OF | 富国中证港股通互联网ETF | 4.63 | 5. ...

【导读】 昨日 股票ETF资金净流出126亿元 中国基金报记者 天心 7月1日（本周二），7月首个交易日A股市场整体平稳，三大指数涨跌互现，两市成交1.5万亿元。 部分资金选择获利出局，股票ETF当日资金净流出126亿元 。 科创50ETF，以及半导体ETF、国防军工ETF等 净流入居前 ； 中证A500、 沪深300、上证50等宽基指数净流出较多，跟踪中证A500指数的ETF单日合计净流出近70亿元。 股票ETF资金净流出126亿元 Wind数据统计，截至7月1日，全市场股票ETF达到1129只（含跨境ETF，下同），总规模为3.59万亿元。 资金流向 数据 显示，7月1日市场震荡之际，股票ETF净流出超126亿元。 头部基金公司中，7月1日， 易方达基金旗下的人工智能ETF净流入1.3亿元、最新规模居同类第一 ； 科创板50ETF净流入1.2亿元，黄金 ETF净流入0.9亿元，机器人ETF易方达净流入0.2亿元，红利低波动ETF净流入0.2亿元。 华夏基金 旗下 ETF中， 中证500ETF华夏和科创50ETF单日净流入居前，分别 为 4.29亿元和3.44亿元，最新规模分别达136.26亿元和 829. ...

另外，上半年有16家基金公司旗下的ETF新增总规模超过百亿元，其中华夏基金新增931.70亿元，目前以 7513.36亿元的ETF管理规模排在所有基金管理人之首，ETF市场马太效应愈来愈烈。 7只股票型ETF获百亿增长 Wind数据显示，今年上半年，股票型ETF区间净流出了近50亿元，但仍然有部分宽基ETF和行业主题ETF的规模 获得了逆势增长。 其中，沪深300ETF华夏是今年上半年获得净流入最多的股票型ETF，基金份额增长81.38亿份，区间净流入金额 高达303.17亿元。此外，华泰柏瑞、易方达、嘉实旗下的沪深300ETF也获得了资金的大举申购，区间净流入金 额分别达到153.25亿元、150.49亿元、117.7亿元。 除了沪深300ETF外，上证50ETF、中证500ETF、中证1000ETF等宽基产品也备受资金青睐，其中华夏上证 50ETF、南方中证500ETF、华夏中证1000ETF分别获得92.83亿元、69.35亿元、59.28亿元的净流入。 而华夏基金的机器人ETF，则摘得今年上半年净流入最多的行业主题ETF桂冠，吸金104.09亿元。此外，易方达 的人工智能ETF、富国的军工龙头ETF、 ...

Core Insights - A total of 171 ETF funds experienced net inflows from financing, while 38 funds saw net outflows from securities lending [1] - The top five ETFs with significant net inflows include Convertible Bond ETF, Nasdaq Technology ETF, Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, Military Industry Leader ETF, and Hong Kong Internet ETF, with net inflows of 197 million, 116 million, 112 million, 56.3 million, and 44.8 million respectively [1][3] - Conversely, the ETFs with the highest net outflows from securities lending include CSI 1000 ETF, CSI 500 ETF, and CSI 300 ETF, with net outflows of 144.3 million, 72.4 million, and 15.6 million respectively [1][5] Financing and Securities Lending Trends - Recently, 78 ETFs have seen continuous net inflows from leveraged financing, with the top performers being Securities Insurance ETF, Bank ETF, Low Volatility Dividend 50 ETF, Broker ETF, and France CAC40 ETF, accumulating net inflows of 24.5 million, 371 million, 79.9 million, 66.7 million, and 42.9 million respectively [1][6] - In terms of net outflows from leveraged securities lending, 16 ETFs have been identified, with the leading ones being CSI 500 ETF, Convertible Bond ETF, and CSI 300 ETF, which experienced net outflows of 218 million, 20.9 million, and 2.3 million respectively [1][6] Long-term Trends - Over the past five days, 58 ETFs have recorded net inflows exceeding 5 million from leveraged financing, with Bank ETF, Nasdaq Technology ETF, Military Industry Leader ETF, Convertible Bond ETF, and Securities ETF leading the way with net inflows of 371 million, 287 million, 164 million, 149 million, and 119 million respectively [1][6] - In the same timeframe, 8 ETFs have seen net outflows from leveraged securities lending exceeding 5 million, with CSI 500 ETF, CSI 1000 ETF, and CSI 300 ETF being the most affected, showing net outflows of 218 million, 191 million, and 24.2 million respectively [1][10]

2025年上半年收官，ETF半程赛的最新战况也随之尘埃落定。 其中，沪深300ETF华夏是今年上半年获得净流入最多的股票型ETF，基金份额增长81.38亿份，区间净流入金 额高达303.17亿元。此外，华泰柏瑞、易方达、嘉实旗下的沪深300ETF也获得了资金的大举申购，区间净流 入金额分别达到153.25亿元、150.49亿元、117.7亿元。 另外，上半年有16家基金公司旗下的ETF新增总规模超过百亿元，其中华夏基金新增931.70亿元，目前以 7513.36亿元的ETF管理规模排在所有基金管理人之首，ETF市场马太效应愈来愈烈。 Wind数据显示，今年上半年，ETF总规模突破4万亿大关，达到4.31万亿元，与去年年底相比增长了15.57%， 其中增长幅度最大的是债券型ETF，年内规模增长了120.71%，达到3839.76亿元，宽基ETF虽然环比增幅仅有 2%，但截至今年上半年末的最新规模为2.23万亿元，依然占到ETF总规模的半壁江山。 从单只产品的情况来看，上半年共有18只ETF规模增长超过百亿元，其中7只为股票型ETF，且这些产品主要 以沪深300ETF等宽基产品、机器人ETF等行业主题产品为主。 ...