2025 年 3 月 27 日 公司研究 经营业绩稳中有进，资产质量保持稳健 ——中国银行（601988.SH）2024 年年报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：5.48 元 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 2,943.88 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 16,132.45 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 4.05/5.6 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 8.72% | 股价相对走势 要点 事件： 3 月 26 日，中国银行发布 2024 年年度报告，全年实现营业收入 6301 亿，同比 增长 1.2%，归母净利润 2378 亿，同比增长 2.6%。加权平均净资产收益率 9.5%， 同比下降 0.62pct。 点评： 盈利增速较前三季度提升 2.1pct，经营业绩稳中有进。中行 2024 年营收、PPOP、 归母净利润同比增速分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for CITIC Bank, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [2][22]. Core Views - CITIC Bank's 2024 performance shows steady growth in revenue and profit, with total operating income reaching CNY 213.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.76%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at CNY 68.58 billion, up 2.33% year-on-year [2][7]. - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.16%, while the provision coverage ratio fell to 209.4%, indicating stable asset quality [2][7]. - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) remained relatively stable, decreasing only 1 basis point to 1.77% compared to the end of 2023, supported by effective cost management on the liability side [7][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: - Total operating income for 2024 is projected at CNY 213.65 billion, with a growth rate of 3.76% [8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach CNY 68.58 billion, reflecting a growth of 2.33% [8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS for 2024 is estimated at CNY 1.23, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 5.87 [8][12]. - **Dividends**: - The annual dividend is projected at CNY 0.3547 per share, with a dividend payout ratio increasing to 30.5% [7][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - **Non-Performing Loan Ratio**: - The NPL ratio is reported at 1.16%, with a slight decrease from previous periods, indicating improved asset quality [7][10]. - **Provision Coverage Ratio**: - The provision coverage ratio stands at 209.4%, reflecting a robust buffer against potential loan losses [7][10]. - **Loan Growth**: - Total loans are expected to grow by approximately 4% annually, with a balanced distribution between corporate and retail loans [7][9]. Future Projections - **Revenue Growth Forecast**: - Revenue growth is projected at 3.6%, 4.1%, and 5.4% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][8]. - **Net Profit Growth Forecast**: - Net profit growth is expected to be 3.4%, 4.6%, and 6.2% for the same years [7][8]. - **Target Price**: - The target price for CITIC Bank is set at CNY 7.98, with a corresponding price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.6x for 2025 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved an operating income of 337.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 148.4 billion, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year [3] - Retail business continues to play a stabilizing role in performance, contributing over 50% to revenue and pre-tax profit [4] - The company’s net interest income decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, while non-interest income grew by 1.4% [4] - The company’s loan growth was 5.8% year-on-year, with corporate and retail loans increasing by 10.1% and 6% respectively [5] - The company’s NIM (Net Interest Margin) for 2024 was 1.98%, slightly down from the previous year [7] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total assets reached 12.15 trillion, with a capital adequacy ratio of 19.05% [11][34] - The report forecasts EPS of 6.05, 6.33, and 6.64 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/B ratios of 0.94, 0.86, and 0.79 [12][34] - The company’s non-interest income showed a slight increase of 1.4%, with net other non-interest income growing by 34.1% [9] - The report indicates a slight increase in the non-performing loan ratio to 0.95% [10] Dividend Policy - The company’s dividend payout ratio increased by 0.3 percentage points to 35.3% for 2024, with plans for a mid-year dividend in 2025 [11] Asset Quality - The company maintains a high provision coverage ratio of 412% and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 3.92% [10][34]

交通银行2024年营收净利双增 现金分红率连续13年 超30% 每经记者 李玉雯 每经编辑 马子卿 近日，交通银行（以下或称交行）披露了国有大行首份2024年年报。2024年交行集团实现净利润（归属 于母公司股东）935.86亿元，营业收入2598.26亿元，均实现正增长。截至2024年末，集团资产总额达到 14.90万亿元，较上年末增长5.98%。 在同日召开的业绩说明会上，交通银行行长张宝江表示，2024年交行业务规模稳步提升，盈利能力保持 韧性，资产质量持续夯实，资本市场对交行的发展成效给予了积极肯定，全年A股和H股股价的涨幅均 超过了40%。 就投资者普遍关注的分红情况来看，交行同步披露了2024年度利润分配方案，加上今年1月已派发的 2024年半年度的股息，交行2024年度全年现金分红比例为32.68%。 "算上这一次分红，交行的现金分红率已连续13年保持在30%以上。"交通银行董秘何兆斌回答《每日经 济新闻》记者提问时表示，按照3月21日收盘价，交行A股的股息率在5.26%左右，H股股息率是5.8%， 交行股票具有很好的投资价值。未来的交行将保持分红政策的延续性、稳定性和可预期性。此外，交行 管理 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) anticipates pressure on net interest margin this year due to a declining interest rate environment, while managing controllable risks in commercial real estate [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The bank's net interest income and net interest margin performed well last year, but the current environment poses significant challenges [1] - As of the end of 2024, customer real estate-related loans totaled HKD 336.2 billion, down 8.5% from the previous year, accounting for 20% of total customer loans, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [1] - Non-residential enterprise loans amounted to HKD 250.9 billion, down 8.8% year-on-year, representing 14.96% of total customer loans, a decline of 1.2 percentage points [2] Group 2: Loan Quality and Risk Management - The bank maintains a non-performing loan ratio of 1.37%, which has increased by 1.24 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to downgrades in loans to certain local SMEs in Hong Kong [2] - The non-performing loan ratio for domestic real estate enterprises is 7.3%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a provision coverage ratio of 85.8%, an increase of 15.7 percentage points [2] - The bank is committed to prudent provisioning policies to ensure adequate coverage and maintains confidence in outperforming the market in terms of overall loan asset quality [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Strategies - The bank's management highlights several pressures faced by developers, including high vacancy rates in office buildings and repayment capacity challenges due to high-interest environments [3] - The bank aims to protect its rights while working collaboratively with clients to find feasible solutions during challenging times [3] - Some developers are converting secured loans into unsecured loans, with pricing strategies being assessed based on market conditions and client situations [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth for the year 2024 is -0.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders shows a growth of +1.2%. The net interest income decreased by 1.6%, but the decline in interest margin in Q4 was better than expected. The year-end non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.95%, with a year-end provision coverage ratio of 412%, indicating a solid risk buffer while slightly reducing provisions to support profit growth [2][6][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Performance - The company's revenue growth for 2024 is -0.5%, with a quarterly growth of +7.5% in Q4. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by +1.2%, with a quarterly growth of +7.6% in Q4. The net interest margin for the year is 1.98%, down 17 basis points year-on-year, while the Q4 margin decreased by 3 basis points, which was better than expected [2][6][12]. Scale - Retail loans accelerated in Q4, with total loans growing by 5.8% for the year and a quarterly increase of 1.9% in Q4. Deposits grew by 11.5% for the year, with a quarterly growth of 4.2% in Q4. The year-end proportion of demand deposits rose to 52.2%, reflecting a recovery in the capital market [12][6]. Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the year is 1.98%, down 17 basis points year-on-year. The Q4 margin was 1.94%, reflecting a 3 basis point decrease. The decline in interest margin was primarily due to lower mortgage rates, while the cost of deposits improved significantly, with the annual deposit cost rate at 1.54%, down 8 basis points year-on-year [12][6]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income grew by 1.4% for the year, driven mainly by investment income. However, net fee income decreased by 14%. Wealth management fees dropped by 23%, although there was a 45% increase in income from selling financial products [12][6]. Asset Quality - The year-end non-performing loan ratio is 0.95%, stable compared to the beginning of the year. The new non-performing loan generation rate for retail loans was 1.60%, with a slight increase in credit card non-performing rates. The provision coverage ratio decreased by 20 percentage points to 412%, indicating a strong risk buffer while supporting profit growth [12][6]. Investment Recommendation - The company exhibits a high return on equity (ROE) of 14.5%, with a strong long-term growth advantage. The expected price-to-book ratios for A/H shares in 2025 are 0.97x and 0.95x, respectively, with a projected dividend yield of 4.8% for both. The report maintains a positive outlook on the valuation recovery of A/H shares and continues to recommend a "Buy" rating [12][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a detailed analysis of China Merchants Bank's 2024 annual report, highlighting the bank's performance in revenue, expenses, asset quality, and capital adequacy, while also noting challenges in net interest margin and fee income [3][21][23]. Revenue Analysis - The total operating income for 2024 was 337.49 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.48% [8]. - Net interest income was 211.28 billion, down 1.58% year-on-year, while fee income fell by 14.28% [8]. - Other non-interest income increased by 34.13% to 54.12 billion, indicating a strong performance in this segment [8]. Expense Analysis - Total expenses and other expenditures decreased by 2.76%, which was better than the analyst's expectation of a decline between 3.16% and 4.81% [4]. - Credit impairment losses for the year were 39.98 billion, slightly below the expected range of 40.3 billion to 42.3 billion [4]. Shareholder Analysis - The top ten shareholders saw a reduction in holdings by the Shanghai Stock Connect, which decreased by 54 million shares, maintaining a 5.04% stake [6]. - The number of shareholders dropped significantly from 522,100 to 459,200, indicating a 12% decline in retail investors [6]. Asset Analysis - Total assets reached 12,152.036 billion, growing by 10.19% year-on-year, with total loans amounting to 6,632.548 billion, a growth rate of 6.07% [14]. - The bank's retail loans maintained a 6% year-on-year growth despite a general slowdown in retail credit demand [14]. Non-Performing Loan Analysis - Non-performing loans increased to 65.61 billion, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter [17]. - The migration rate of normal loans rose to 1.39%, indicating ongoing pressure on asset quality [17]. Capital Adequacy Analysis - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 14.86%, up from 14.73% in the previous quarter, primarily due to regulatory changes [19]. Summary of Key Issues - The bank faces challenges with the asset quality of retail loans, which has shown signs of deterioration [21]. - The net interest margin continues to be under pressure due to declining asset yields and weak credit demand [23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 55 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 showed a slight decline of 0.48% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.22%, indicating a stable fundamental performance [1]. - In Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 7.64%, driven by asset expansion, growth in non-interest income, and cost reduction, despite some pressure from narrowing net interest margins and increased credit impairment provisions [1][12]. - The bank's strong deposit competitiveness is highlighted by a significant increase in deposits, with a year-on-year growth of 245.5 billion CNY in Q4 2024 [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The bank's total revenue for 2024 was 337.49 billion CNY, with a slight decrease from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 148.39 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 1.22% [20]. - The bank's cost-to-income ratio improved to 38.77%, down by 3.68 percentage points year-on-year, indicating effective cost management [13][39]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.93% as of Q4 2024, with slight fluctuations in various loan categories, showing resilience in asset quality [41]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was reported at 411.98%, maintaining a strong buffer against potential credit losses [14]. Loan and Deposit Growth - The average daily balance of interest-earning assets increased by 8.76% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with significant contributions from bond investments and a recovery in credit issuance [2][23]. - Retail loans, particularly mortgage loans, saw a notable increase, with a growth of 32.5 billion CNY in Q4 2024, marking the best quarterly performance since Q3 2023 [2][17]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income showed signs of recovery, with a 53.6% year-on-year increase in other non-interest income in Q4 2024, driven by rising bond investment values [13]. - The bank's fee and commission income decreased by 4% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to previous quarters, indicating a potential stabilization [12][36]. Market Position and Outlook - The bank's strong deposit base and competitive funding costs position it well for future asset growth, despite ongoing pressure on net interest margins [11][18]. - The outlook for 2025 anticipates a revenue growth of 0.61% and a net profit growth of 1.24%, supported by a recovering capital market and improved economic conditions [18][20].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 经营表现稳健，中期分红落地 ——招商银行 2024 年报点评 投资要点 ❑ 招商银行 2024A 利润增速回正，资产质量平稳，2025 年中期分红初步落地。 ❑ 数据概览 招商银行 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 1.2%，利润增速回正；营收同比下降 0.5%，降幅较 24Q1-3 收窄 2.4pc。2024 年末不良率 0.95%，环比 24Q3 末回升 1bp，拨备覆盖率 412%，环比 24Q3 末下降 20pc。 ❑ 息差好于预期 招商银行 2024 年归母净利润同比增长 1.2%，利润增速回正；营收同比下降 0.5%，降幅较 24Q1-3 收窄 2.4pc。从驱动因素来看，除债市表现优异带动其他非 息增速回升外，核心超预期点在于息差拖累改善，支撑盈利增速改善。 招行 24Q4 单季净息差（日均口径）环比小幅下降 3bp 至 1.94%，息差韧性好于 预期。主要得益于负债成本显著改善。①资产端收益率环比下降 16bp至 3.33%， 主要是受 LPR 降息、存量按揭降息等行业共性因素冲击，贷款收益率环比下降 20bp 至 3.70%；②负债端成本率环比改善 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][11]. Core Views - The company's net profit growth has turned positive, with a net profit of 148.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. The revenue for 2024 was 337.5 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, but the fourth quarter showed a revenue growth of 7.5% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company's asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95%, unchanged from the beginning of the year. The credit cost has decreased slightly to 0.65%, down 9 basis points year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has a strong customer base, with retail customers reaching 210 million, including 5.24 million high-net-worth clients, indicating a continuous improvement in customer quality [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 337.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 148.4 billion yuan. The revenue is expected to grow to 343.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 150.8 billion yuan [4][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2024 is 15.1%, and the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025-2027 is projected to be 7.8x, 7.4x, and 6.9x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4]. - The total assets of the company reached 12.15 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with loans totaling 6.89 trillion yuan and deposits of 9.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a steady growth in scale [1][2].