Core Viewpoint - The actions of Trump to attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook may mark a turning point, leading to a gradual "Trumpification" of the Federal Reserve by 2026 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Independence - If Cook is forced to leave, the independence of the Federal Reserve may be compromised, potentially resulting in a steeper yield curve, increased inflation compensation, and higher inflation risk premiums [1] Policy Implications - The current baseline scenario suggests that while there may not be drastic changes in policy and practice, there could be significant breaks from past practices and fundamentally different response functions [1]

Group 1 - The city held an education conference on August 26 to implement Xi Jinping's important speeches on education and to arrange for the construction of a strong education city [1] - The city is focusing on accelerating key project construction to boost high-quality economic and social development, emphasizing the "project first" concept [2] - In Suqian, over 10,000 homeowners are receiving "warm red envelopes" as part of a community initiative to convert surplus funds from property management into cash benefits for residents [3] Group 2 - JD.com is set to open four discount supermarket stores in Suqian on August 30, each exceeding 5,000 square meters and offering over 5,000 SKUs to meet one-stop shopping needs [4] - A new round of household surveys has been initiated by the National Bureau of Statistics, involving sample rotation in Suqian to gather data for national decision-making [5] - The 10th round of the Jiangsu City Football League successfully completed ticket reservations and lottery draws for six matches on August 26 [6] Group 3 - On August 26, fuel prices were lowered, with gasoline and diesel prices reduced by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively, resulting in savings of 7 yuan for a full tank of 92-octane gasoline [7] - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid ongoing tensions regarding interest rate policies [8] - Former Sinaloa cartel leader Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada Garcia pleaded guilty in the U.S. and faces life imprisonment, highlighting ongoing issues related to drug trafficking [9]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint highlights the unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for more "Trump-aligned" appointees, which could lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts next year [1] - Following the removal announcement, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell, indicating market reactions to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future [1] Fixed Income - The report indicates a cautious approach in the convertible bond market, suggesting a reduction in exposure to high-priced targets while increasing allocations to ETFs to balance risks [2][3] - The 10-year government bond yield increased from 1.745% to 1.785%, reflecting market adjustments [2] Industry Insights - Longi Green Energy's Q2 performance showed a reduction in losses, with production capacity gradually increasing, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Zhuhai Guanyu's mobile phone shipments saw significant growth, aligning with expectations, and the company is rated as a "buy" [4] - Hunan YN's profit forecast for 2025-2027 was adjusted downwards due to lithium carbonate price pressures, but the company maintains a "buy" rating based on its market position [7] - The report on Aima Technology indicates a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2026, but the company is still rated as a "buy" due to its strong market position and ongoing product development [9] - The report on Yutong Bus highlights performance driven by exports, with expectations for a strong second half of 2025 [10] - The analysis of Minsheng Health indicates stable growth in traditional products and clear growth in probiotics, suggesting a positive outlook for future growth [13] - The report on Ganfeng Lithium indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, but the company is still rated as a "buy" due to its global resource layout [20] - The report on Jianghuai Automobile indicates a strategic partnership with Huawei and ongoing collaborations with other tech firms, maintaining a "buy" rating despite competitive pressures [22] - The report on Yingjia Wine suggests a focus on mid-range products, with expectations for improved performance following inventory clearance [23]

美国总统特朗普宣布罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）风波持续发酵。 当地时间8月26日，美联储首次就此作出回应，强调《联邦储备法》赋予理事的长期任期和解职保护机 制，并明确表示库克将通过司法途径捍卫其职位。 美联储发言人表示："库克已通过其私人律师表示，她将立即在法院对该行为提出挑战，并寻求司法裁 决，以确认她作为经参议院确认的美联储理事继续履职的权利。美联储将一如既往地遵守法院裁 决。"他补充说："理事的长期任期和解职保护是重要保障，确保货币政策决策基于数据、经济分析以及 美国人民的长期利益。" 在美联储发言人和库克律师相继表态后，特朗普26日也在媒体前作出回应。他强调将遵守法院对库克去 留的最终裁决："我会遵守法院的决定，是的，我会遵守法院。"不过，他随即补充称，美联储理事 会"很快将由更多我任命的人选占据多数"。 在法院裁定前，库克的职位并未发生变化，她仍将参加9月16日至17日的下一次利率决策会议。市场人 士表示，此案已超越个案，成为对美联储独立性制度的直接挑战。 独立性之争推向司法 美联储则表明，不会接受总统单方面决定，而是等待司法机关裁定。司法部尚未对库克采取行动，使得 其去留悬而未决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and could lead to significant legal battles and market disruptions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, marking the first time a sitting president has removed a Fed governor in its 111-year history [1][2]. - Trump cited allegations of fraud related to Cook's mortgage applications as justification for her dismissal, claiming it undermines her credibility as a financial regulator [2][3]. - Cook, appointed by President Biden, has stated that Trump lacks the legal authority to dismiss her and has no intention of resigning [2][3]. Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's actions are seen as a significant challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve, with potential implications for its decision-making and credibility [2][3]. - If successful in removing Cook, Trump could appoint another governor, potentially shifting the balance of power within the Federal Reserve [3]. - Legal experts suggest that Trump's dismissal may face challenges in federal court, as Federal Reserve governors can only be removed for "just cause" under U.S. law [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Context - The dismissal comes amid Trump's ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which he believes is necessary for economic growth [4]. - Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicate that a rate cut may be forthcoming, which has led to market speculation about upcoming monetary policy changes [4]. - The situation has drawn criticism from political figures, who argue that Trump's actions are an attempt to deflect blame for economic challenges facing the country [4].

据知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普希望迅速宣布接替美联储理事会丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的候选人。 他在白宫对记者说："我们有一些非常优秀的人才能担任这个职位。" AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 "我们需要100%光明磊落的人，而她似乎不是。" 据知情人士透露，特朗普在决定尝试罢免库克之前，曾与包括白宫幕僚长苏西·威尔斯（Susie Wiles）和 财长贝森特在内的一小部分顾问进行了磋商。 美联储周二在一份声明中表示，将遵守法院对库克的任何相关裁决，并重申其独立性。美联储发言人表 示，库克周二结束出差后已返回华盛顿，美联储将推迟就库克是否能继续任职做出任何决定，直至法院 做出澄清。 特朗普在试图罢免库克时，援引了美国联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普尔特（Bill Pulte）的指控。普尔特 称，库克在2021年分别为位于密歇根和亚特兰大的两处房产申请抵押贷款，并在间隔14天提交的文件 中，都将其描述为自己的主要住所。 特朗普表示，他可能会任命其亲密经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）来取代库克。 本月早些时候，总统已提名米兰填补美联储理事会的另一个席位，但该席位的任期将在明 ...

特朗普解雇美联储理事库克被指"非法" 新华社华盛顿8月26日电 美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克。 这一被媒体称为"史无前例"的做法引发争议，库克回应称特朗普无权解雇她，将继续履职。 特朗普当天在其社交媒体上一封致库克的信中表示，鉴于库克"在金融问题上存在欺骗行为且可能构成 犯罪"，其诚信度令人怀疑。 解雇库克的决定还加剧外界对美联储丧失独立性的担忧。库克2022年被美国前总统拜登提名、经国会批 准出任美联储理事，也是美联储首位非洲裔女性理事。若她最终被解雇，特朗普有权提名继任者重塑美 联储理事会。美联储现任7名理事中，有两人为特朗普提名。 美国布鲁金斯学会高级研究员阿伦·克莱因表示："这是对美联储独立性的致命一击。特朗普的意思是， 美联储应不惜一切代价执行他的意志。" 近期，特朗普因不满美联储不肯配合他降低基准利率，多次猛烈抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，并呼吁他提前 卸任。库克曾表示，特朗普正在推进的贸易政策可能会抑制美国生产力，并可能迫使美联储在一个效率 下降的经济环境中提高利率，以遏制通胀。 库克通过律师阿贝·洛厄尔回应称，特朗普总统将其解雇缺乏法律依据及相关权力。"我将继 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, being the first such dismissal in over a century [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Implications - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump over the dismissal, citing that the Federal Reserve Act allows for removal only under "just cause" [2]. - The Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to fulfilling its legal responsibilities and adhering to any court rulings [2]. - Legal experts suggest that proving Cook's alleged mortgage fraud in court will be a significant challenge for the Trump administration [6]. Group 2: Political Motivations and Future Appointments - Trump indicated he has candidates in mind to replace Cook, aiming to secure a majority on the Federal Reserve Board [3][5]. - The current composition of the Federal Reserve Board includes members appointed by previous administrations, with only two being Trump appointees [4]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates has been a driving factor behind the dismissal [4][5]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Experts warn that if Trump's dismissal of Cook is upheld, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence [7][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining stable and unbiased monetary policy, free from political pressures [7].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months despite ongoing inflation risks, causing short-term market volatility [1] - The U.S. labor market appears deceptively stable, with a slowdown in labor participation and job demand contributing to a "peculiar balance" [1] - Concerns about stagflation arise as the market fears a combination of weak economic growth and high inflation, reminiscent of past economic conditions [2] Group 2 - The potential loss of Federal Reserve independence raises concerns about aggressive rate cuts, influenced by political pressures from the Trump administration [2] - The current economic environment may provide a window of opportunity for China and other emerging markets, as U.S. rate cuts could lower financing costs and enhance economic activity [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. dollar system may prompt a shift towards the internationalization of the renminbi, as global capital seeks safer assets [3]

外媒报道指出，特朗普政府正研究对地区联邦储备银行施加影响，尤其是地方联储主席的选拔方式。目 前，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)由7名理事和5位地区联储主席组成，其中地方联储主席并非由 总统提名，也无需参议院确认。消息人士称，库克被罢免的消息公布后，多位地方联储主席紧急通话， 担忧这可能是白宫进一步削弱央行独立性的信号。 根据《联邦储备法》，总统只能在"有因"的情况下罢免理事，但"有因"的定义从未在国会中得到明确， 法院过往也多将其限定于玩忽职守、失职或渎职等在任期间的不当行为。而特朗普引用的理由是库克在 担任密歇根州立大学教授期间涉嫌伪造抵押贷款记录。分析人士指出，这些指控并未进入司法程序，且 发生在库克进入美联储之前，能否构成"有因"仍存在重大争议。 摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli指出，这类指控通常不适用于"在职保护条款"。同时，近期最 高法院在扩大总统对独立机构成员的罢免权时，也特意将美联储排除在外，凸显此案的特殊性。 如果法院最终支持特朗普的举措，他将有机会进一步改造美联储。近期理事阿德里亚娜·库格勒已宣布 辞职，而美联储主席鲍威尔的任期也将在明年5月到期。若库克被迫离职，特 ...