本周稍早，加拿大总理马克·卡尼会见了汽车行业高管，讨论如何帮助受美国关税冲击的汽车工厂。卡 尼会见了加拿大汽车制造商协会的领导层及其成员高管，该协会包括通用汽车、Stellantis和福特。据政 府声明称，他们讨论了与美国的谈判以及在7月21日前达成贸易协议的工作。"卡尼确认，政府的重点仍 然是为加拿大工人和产业争取最好的待遇。" ...

市场消息：美国与瑞士之间的贸易协议可能包含药品关税方面优惠待遇的条款。 ...

与美国的贸易谈判仍在进行中。 印度官员：只有利益得到满足，才能在7月9日前与美国达成贸易协议。 ...

印度官员：只有在符合利益的情况下，与美国的贸易协议才会在7月9日之前达成。 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia is confident in reaching a "bold" trade agreement with the United States, covering key minerals, energy, defense cooperation, and market access as the deadline for tariff increases approaches [1] - The Indonesian government commits to implementing near-zero tariffs on over 1,700 goods, which accounts for nearly 70% of total U.S. imports, including electronics, machinery, chemicals, medical supplies, steel, agriculture, and automotive sectors [1] - Indonesia aims to reduce the threatened 32% tariffs by the U.S. to below the 20% rate recently granted to Vietnam, as the U.S. is Indonesia's second-largest export market after China [1] Group 2 - The agreement includes measures such as granting U.S. buyers priority procurement rights, enhancing foreign ownership reviews in supply chains, and ensuring a secure and transparent supply of raw materials for U.S. critical industries, particularly in the nickel sector [5] - Indonesia plans to increase imports of U.S. natural gas and agricultural products to bolster its food and energy security, while also exploring commercial cooperation with U.S. companies in areas like aircraft procurement and maintenance services [5] - The Indonesian government intends to relax localization requirements, strengthen intellectual property protection, and open the national payment gateway to U.S. service providers, aiming to provide "fairer treatment" for American companies [6]

Core Points - Indonesia plans to implement near-zero import tariffs on over 1,700 products, covering nearly 70% of U.S. imports, aiming to avoid a 32% tariff threat from the U.S. [1][2] - The proposed "bold trade agreement" includes key minerals, energy, defense cooperation, and market access, with a focus on enhancing supply chain security for U.S. industries [3][4] - Indonesia aims to increase imports of natural gas and agricultural products from the U.S. to enhance food and energy security [3] - The Indonesian government plans to expand military equipment purchases from the U.S. to solidify its position as a reliable defense partner in the Indo-Pacific region [4] - A memorandum of understanding worth $34 billion is set to be signed, involving investments in U.S. agricultural and energy products valued at $15.5 billion [4] Summary by Categories Trade Agreement - Indonesia expresses confidence in reaching a comprehensive trade agreement with the U.S. before the upcoming tariff deadline, focusing on critical sectors [1][2] - The agreement aims to provide favorable access for U.S. buyers in key mineral sectors, particularly nickel, which is essential for battery production [3] Tariff Strategy - The Indonesian government is taking steps to avoid the imposition of a 32% tariff by the U.S. by reducing tariffs on a significant portion of imports [1][2] - The current baseline tariff of 10% is set to increase if no agreement is reached before the deadline [2] Economic Cooperation - Indonesia is committed to providing fair treatment for U.S. companies by easing localization requirements and enhancing intellectual property protection [4] - The government is exploring commercial cooperation with U.S. companies, including potential aircraft purchases and maintenance services [3][4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The gradual elimination of uncertainties due to trade friction is expected to create investment opportunities for leading textile manufacturing companies with high-quality overseas production capacity and strong vertical integration [4][8] - The preliminary trade agreement between the US and Vietnam is seen as a positive development, with expected lower tariff rates than previously anticipated, which will benefit textile and apparel export companies [8] - The report emphasizes that the trade friction will not diminish the global competitiveness of China's textile and apparel industry but will instead enhance the risk resistance and global management capabilities of true industry leaders [8] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Shenzhou International (02313, Buy), Huayi Group (300979, Buy), and Weixing Co., Ltd. (002003, Buy) for investment opportunities in the second half of the year [4] - Other companies to watch include Bailun Oriental (601339, Not Rated), Jingyuan International (02232, Not Rated), and Jiansheng Group (603558, Not Rated) [4] Trade Agreement Insights - The US-Vietnam preliminary trade agreement is expected to result in a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports, which is better than the previously proposed 46% [8] - Vietnam has become a significant supplier of textiles and apparel to the US, with exports totaling nearly $137 billion last year, making it the largest supplier after China [8] - The report anticipates that other Southeast Asian countries will also benefit from favorable tariff levels, which will enhance their export competitiveness [8] Industry Development Implications - The report highlights the positive implications of reduced trade uncertainties for the normal development of the industry and the timely execution of orders by major clients [8] - Companies that have completed overseas capacity layouts and possess high vertical integration are expected to perform better in the current environment [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold prices are restricted by improved market risk appetite due to trade agreements and export restrictions relief. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties and the potential passage of the Trump administration's bill, gold prices are expected to oscillate. Silver prices break through the $87 per ounce mark but may not continue unilateral upward movement because of the impact on interest - rate cut expectations. In the long - term, considering the trade war background, possible Fed rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **内外盘金/银15点价格**: On July 3, 2025, London gold spot was $3362.28 per ounce, London silver spot was $36.76 per ounce, COMEX gold was $3372.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $37.03 per ounce. Compared with July 2, gold prices rose by about 0.9% and silver prices by about 2.2% - 2.4%. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase [5]. - **价差/比价跟踪**: As of July 3, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was -$1.92 per gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active spread was -$20 per kilogram. Compared with July 2, the gold spread decreased by 19.0% and the silver spread increased by 53.8%. The gold and silver price ratios also changed to different extents [5]. Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 2, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 947.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 14846.12421 tons. COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions also changed compared with July 1, with some positions showing a decline [5]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On July 3, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 18456.00 kilograms, showing no change compared with July 2, and SHFE silver inventory was 1340792.00 kilograms, up 0.16%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% [5]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - **Rates and Indexes**: On July 3, 2025, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, down 0.03% compared with July 2. The dollar index was 96.78, up 0.14%. Other rates such as the 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYMEX crude oil also showed different percentage changes [5]. Market News - **Trade and Policy News**: Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, with Vietnam imposing tariffs on exports to the US and opening its market. The US lifted export restrictions on Chinese chip design software and removed a restrictive license requirement for ethane exports to China. The Trump administration's "big and beautiful" bill advanced in the House of Representatives. US economic data such as non - farm payrolls, manufacturing PMI, and factory orders were released, and the US Treasury Secretary hinted at possible Fed rate cuts [5].

美国目前只和英国、越南两国敲定贸易协议，另与中国达成框架协议。 特朗普当地时间7月2日表示，美国已经与越南达成贸易协议。特朗普随后又发帖文称，越南所有对美出口 商品将面临至少20%关税，并对美国"完全开放市场"。 其他贸易伙伴，如日本、欧盟等，仍在与美国谈判以敲定协议。 关税大消息。 美国总统特朗普表示，会在今日（7月4日）起向各国发出信件，具体说明有关国家货物进入美国时将面对 的关税税率。他在前往艾奥瓦州前向记者表示，每次将有10个国家收到有关信件，信中提及的关税税率为 20%至30%。 美国财长贝森特表示，将有约100个国家面对10%对等关税，并预计下周三（7月9日）对等关税宽限届满 前有一系列的贸易协议公布。美国4月公布对等关税政策时，获10%基准对等关税税率的国家及地区有 123个。他还说，未来几天将有大量消息。 特朗普多次威胁，若无法在下周期限前与美国达成贸易协议，将单方面设定关税。特朗普最早在4月2日宣 布激进的"对等"关税，但很快就宣布暂停90天，给各国协商的时间，这段期间的税率是10%。 综合自：央视新闻、新华社、券商中国、CCTV国际时讯等 责编：李丹 校对：刘星莹 版权声明 当地时间7月1 ...

据环球网报道，在美国单方面设定的7月9日这一同多国谈判的最后期限即将到来之际，欧盟委员会主席 冯德莱恩当地时间周四（3日）在丹麦的一场新闻发布会上称，由于欧盟与美国贸易的规模和复杂性， 在这段时间内达成详细协议是"不可能的"。欧盟希望在下周的最后期限前与美国达成一项粗略的"原则 性的贸易协议"，该协议与此前英国与美国达成的协议类似。欧盟委员会贸易和经济安全委员谢夫乔维 奇目前正在美国就该协议进行谈判。 ...