Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded after a decline, driven by geopolitical tensions, weakening dollar credit, and central bank gold purchases, despite recent market corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices fell below $4000 but rebounded, with COMEX gold experiencing a four-day decline totaling 3.4% before a V-shaped recovery, surpassing $4080 [1] - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF saw a nearly 2% increase, while the Huaxia Gold ETF rose by 1.2% [1] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) has seen a net inflow of 1.38 billion yuan over 14 consecutive trading days, totaling 8.24 billion yuan since the price peak on October 21 [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs set a gold price target of $4440 for Q1 2026, while Morgan Stanley predicts a rise to $4500 by mid-2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and the reopening of the U.S. government are expected to improve market liquidity [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) is noted for its low comprehensive fee rate of 0.2% and allows T+0 trading [2] - The Gold Stock ETF (159562), which tracks SSH gold stocks, has a similar fee structure and focuses on gold and copper stocks [2]

随着近日市场调整对美联储降息的预期，美债收益率上升，美元上涨，黄金价格也随着承压回落。不 过，高盛认为，支撑黄金的因素直至明年都将继续提供支撑，使得此次回调相对短暂，尤其是考虑到各 国央行仍是大买家。 美东时间周一，高盛在分享给客户的研究报告中写道： "上周黄金价格大幅上涨，上周一亚洲交易时段内一度以垂直走势上涨约25美元，随后上涨近6%，但在 上周五金价出现回调，跌落至约4100美元。上周一价格的上涨时间、幅度和速度与亚洲央行的买入行为 相符。" 高盛分析师表示，他观察到全球央行的黄金购买量仍在持续增加，并将持续强劲态势直至明年。 分析师们写道： "我们的现状预测显示，今年9月份全球央行的黄金购买量为64吨（8月份为21吨），11月央行的购买量 可能仍在持续。我们仍认为，央行的黄金储备持续增加是一个多年来的趋势，因为各国央行正在多元化 储备以规避地缘政治和金融风险。" 高盛银行预计，从2025年第四季度到2026年，各国央行每月平均将购买80吨黄金。 该银行估计，卡塔尔在9月份购买了20吨黄金，阿曼购买了7吨，中国购买了15吨。 总体而言，各国央行的购金速度使得高盛坚持其预测，即到2026年底，黄金价格将涨 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（11月18日）触底反弹震荡收涨，开盘价4064.06美元/盎司，最高价4081.92美元/盎司，最低价 3997.99美元/盎司，收盘价4052.90美元/盎司。 日内操作区间： 消息面： 根据ADP研究公司周二发布的数据，在截至11月1日的四周内，美国公司平均每周裁减2500个工作岗位。ADP 的每周数据显示，本月许多大公司宣布了裁员计划，其中包括亚马逊和塔吉特。根据人事咨询公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.的一份报告，计划裁员人数创下20多年来任何10月份的最高纪录。 劳工统计局网站上发布的另一份数据显示，在截至10月18日的一周内，初请失业金的人数总计为23.2万人—— 这大致与9月中旬的申请水平一致。 民意调查显示，近一半的在职美国人表示，如果他们现在失业，需要四个月或更长时间才能找到一份类似质量 的工作。这使得那些传统上难以填补职位的雇主掌握了主动权，尤其是对于那些仍受困于大量空缺岗位和疫情 开始以来27%工资涨幅的企业而言。 美国劳工部一位发言人表示，劳工部计划在当地时间周四结束前补齐政府停摆期间缺失的周度初请失业金数 据。发言人Rya ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent net inflow of nearly 1 billion yuan into gold ETF (518800) over five consecutive days reflects growing investor interest amid changing Federal Reserve policies [1] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation, leading to hawkish comments that suppress interest rate cut expectations [2] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 70% to 42%, primarily due to shifts in voting tendencies within the FOMC rather than economic data [1] Group 2 - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe haven, but ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions may continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets [2] - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile, while long-term factors such as the potential for a Fed rate cut cycle, increasing global macroeconomic policy uncertainties, and trends toward de-dollarization may provide support for gold prices [2] - Investors are advised to consider direct investments in physical gold and gold ETFs (518800) that are exempt from value-added tax, as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks experienced a rebound in early trading, with notable increases in share prices for several companies, despite recent declines in international gold prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - China Gold International (02009) rose by 3.37%, trading at 134.9 HKD [1] - Zijin Mining International (02259) increased by 2.57%, trading at 135.9 HKD [1] - Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818) saw a rise of 2.32%, trading at 28.28 HKD [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) grew by 1.8%, trading at 32.84 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - COMEX gold prices recently fell below 4000 USD/ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand and inconsistent expectations regarding U.S. labor market and inflation data [1] - Citic Securities' chief economist noted that the decline in gold prices was due to weakened safe-haven support and uncertainty in economic data releases [1] - Everbright Securities reported that the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, combined with increased global uncertainty, has led to a resurgence in gold ETF investment demand [1] - The trend of central banks increasing gold holdings continues under the backdrop of de-dollarization, with a positive outlook for gold prices [1]

Macro Strategy - Recent international gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, with domestic jewelry gold prices also remaining elevated. There is a new trend in gold consumption favoring lighter products like gold bars. Short-term gold prices are expected to maintain high volatility. Consumers should pay attention to international gold price fluctuations if investing, and choose purchasing timing based on their budget for wearing needs [2][3] - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue reached 18.649 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The national general public budget expenditure was 22.5825 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. Securities transaction stamp duty revenue was 162.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.1% [2] - By the end of 2024, the total asset scale of urban commercial banks in China is projected to be 60.15 trillion yuan, a 134-fold increase since 1995, accounting for 13.53% of the banking financial institutions, with a market share increase of 8.24 percentage points. The non-performing loan ratio is 1.76%, and the provision coverage ratio is 188.08% [2] Industry and Company Medical Services Industry - The medical and biological sector rose by 3.29%, ranking fifth among the 31 first-level industries. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.08%, indicating that the medical sector outperformed the index by 4.37 percentage points [6] - The PE (ttm) of the medical services sector is 33.47X, with a PB (lf) of 3.37X. The PE increased by 0.51X and the PB increased by 0.05X compared to the previous week [7][8] - The TIDES CRDMO market is expected to grow significantly, with the global market projected to increase from 2.1 billion USD in 2018 to 5.5 billion USD in 2023, with a CAGR of 20.9%, and further to 37.3 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 23.8%. The Chinese market is expected to grow from 200 million USD in 2018 to 800 million USD in 2023, with a CAGR of 37.1%, and to 6.2 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 25.5% [9] - Investment recommendations for the medical services sector include focusing on high-growth companies in the ADC CDMO and TIDES CDMO areas, as well as companies in the third-party testing laboratories and consumer medical sectors [10] Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry - The traditional Chinese medicine sector rose by 4.08%, ranking third among secondary sub-sectors. Companies such as Te Yi Pharmaceutical and Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical performed well, while others like *ST Changyao and ST Huluwa performed poorly [12] - The PE (ttm) for the traditional Chinese medicine sector is 29.25X, with a PB (lf) of 2.47X, indicating a slight increase from the previous week [13][14] - The market for traditional Chinese medicinal materials is experiencing volatility, with an overall supply surplus due to increased arrivals from new harvests. Recent weather conditions have also impacted harvesting [15] - The steady advancement of centralized procurement in the traditional Chinese medicine industry aims to reduce patient medication costs and shift competition towards cost control and quality standards [16][17] - Investment recommendations for the traditional Chinese medicine sector include focusing on companies with competitive advantages in product quality and cost, as well as those benefiting from national reforms and centralized procurement policies [18][19]

今年迄今金价已上涨55%，主要受经济与地缘政治担忧、黄金ETF资金流入增加以及对美国进一步降息 的预期推动。（国际财闻汇） 高盛周一表示，各国央行在11月可能继续大量购金，这延续了近年来为分散外汇储备、对冲地缘政治与 金融风险的长期趋势。 高盛预计，9月份央行购金量为64吨，高于8月份的21吨。到2026年底，金价将升至4900美元；如果私人 投资者继续分散投资组合，金价可能会进一步上涨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have been under pressure due to diminishing dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve, with spot gold dropping below $4000 per ounce for the first time since November 10, before recovering slightly to around $4038.677 per ounce [1][4] - COMEX gold also experienced a decline, briefly falling below $4000 per ounce with a maximum drop of nearly 1.9%, but later rebounded to $4040.2 per ounce, reducing the decline to 0.84% [4][5] - Silver prices also faced a decline, dipping below $50 per ounce with a maximum drop exceeding 1%, but later increased to $50.448 per ounce, reflecting a rise of 0.53% [7][8] Group 2 - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed hawkish stances, significantly reducing expectations for a rate cut in December, with the probability of maintaining rates rising above 50% [10][14] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has decreased from 93.7% a month ago to 48.6% [10][11] - Goldman Sachs indicated that central banks may have purchased a substantial amount of gold in November, driven by a trend to diversify reserves against geopolitical and financial risks, projecting gold prices could reach $4900 by the end of 2026 [14]

进入2025年11月18日，炒黄金市场仍备受全球投资者青睐。现货黄金价格近期波动明显，一度逼近4200美元/盎司后，受美联储官员相对谨慎的表态影响， 回落至4010-4100美元附近。最新数据显示，美联储对进一步宽松持审慎态度，部分官员强调需"缓慢推进"政策调整，以平衡就业与通胀风险。这虽短期支 撑美元、压制金价，但从中长期看，地缘不确定性及央行持续购金需求，仍使2025黄金行情分析整体偏向震荡向上。部分专业人士指出，在美联储仍处于渐 进宽松周期的背景下，黄金作为避险资产有望维持较强韧性。 炒黄金价格预测：2025年底金价还能冲高吗？ 当下炒黄金投资者最关注的仍是价格动向。11月以来，美国经济数据相对稳定，削弱了市场对激进降息的预期，导致金价出现阶段性回调。然而，多机构分 析认为，若美联储12月会议保持渐进宽松路径，叠加全球央行购金支撑，2025年底金价或在4000-4500美元区间运行。如何在炒黄金中抓住时机？选对平台 至关重要，它能避免高波动期遭遇执行卡顿或资金隐患，确保交易顺畅。 炒黄金怎么选平台？先看这些核心痛点 针对这些常见需求，香港黄金交易所AA类会员（如金盛贵金属）提供可靠解决方案。例如，金盛贵 ...

受美联储鸽派预期减弱等影响，黄金价格多日承压！ 11月18日下午，现货黄金跌破4000美元/盎司关口，为11月10日以来首次，日内跌超1%。 多名美联储官员发表鹰派立场 12月降息预期大幅下滑 消息面上，近几周，多位在近期会议上支持降息的美联储官员表示，除非有证据表明就业市场恶化或通胀改善，否则将反对进一步降息。 不过，随后金价止跌回升。截至发稿，现货黄金报4038.677美元/盎司，近乎平盘。 | < W | | 伦敦金现 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | 4038.677 | | 昨结 4045.330 开盘 | 4045.330 | | -6.653 -0.16% | | 总量(kq) 0.00 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 4055.320 | 持 仓 | 0 外 盘 | 0 | | 最低价 3997.658 | 增 仓 | 内 盘 0 | 0 | | 分时 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多 | | 0 | | 畳加 | | 盘口 | | | 4093.002 | 1.18% 卖1 4038.860 0 | | | | | ...