上周（4月28日-5月2日）国际黄金市场波动加剧，贸易战走向扰动市场风险偏好并对金价构成剧烈影 响。亚洲时段的动能加持有所削弱，无论是期货市场还是ETF均呈现边际流出。 市场观点方面，五一假期前后（4.28~5.5）黄金市场呈现了先抑后扬的V型走势，在关税变局的影响 下，市场风险偏好大幅变动，也带动黄金波幅明显放大。 经历4月的快速拉涨后，黄金价格需要时间来进行消化整理，而近期逆风因素开始显现，关税博弈中特 朗普政府不断释放缓和信号，以及美国4月制造业PMI、非农就业数据小幅超预期，风险偏好的回升及 降息预期的回落短期压制金价表现。同时，亚洲区的获利了结资金也同步出现，时段内引领涨势的情况 不再，期货持仓一周内降幅近10%，国内各黄金ETF持仓也在呈现边际流出。 部分避险资金再次回到黄金市场 进入五一假日后段，国际金价于3200美元附近企稳，并快速回升至3300美元上方。前半段假日内引领风 险偏好回升的因素包括美国和乌克兰达成资源开发和重建协议；特朗普政府宣称将与韩国、日本和印度 有潜在的贸易协议，以及重要的与中国方面的接洽开始发生。但这一切在5月5日发生了戏剧性的转变， 首先是日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact both the U.S. and global economies, balancing inflation control and employment promotion [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee consists of 12 members who vote on interest rate adjustments based on economic data such as GDP, CPI, and unemployment rates [1] - Interest rate policies have a "domino effect" on global capital markets, influencing the dollar and exchange rates, stock and bond markets, and commodity prices [1] Group 2 - An increase in interest rates typically strengthens the dollar, attracting international capital back to the U.S., while a decrease weakens the dollar, benefiting risk assets and currencies of commodity-exporting countries [1] - High interest rates can suppress corporate financing and consumer credit, potentially leading to a correction in U.S. stock markets, while low rates can stimulate stock market growth but may create asset bubbles in the long term [1] - Gold prices are negatively correlated with the dollar index, with significant fluctuations observed during periods of aggressive interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3 - During a rate hike cycle, the cost of holding gold increases, leading to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets to interest-bearing assets like U.S. Treasuries, putting pressure on gold prices [2] - In a rate cut cycle, declining real interest rates and expectations of dollar depreciation can significantly boost the demand for gold as a store of value [2] - The platform "领峰贵金属" offers a compliant and secure trading environment, efficient trading tools, and professional services to help investors navigate the changing market conditions [2]

2025年美联储5月议息会议将有两大关键看点：政策利率决定以及鲍威尔新闻发布会。调查显示，美联 储5月维持利率不变的概率高达96.8%，降息25个基点的概率为3.2%。目前市场普遍预计，美联储美联 储将在此次会议上维持利率不变，其原因在于，一方面，美国劳动力市场仍保持韧性，为美联储维持利 率提供了支撑；另一方面，通胀虽有所降温但仍具一定粘性，且需关注关税等政策对通胀及经济增长的 影响。不过，也有分析人士认为，若美国经济数据持续改善，可能出现要求更激进加息的声音，但当前 这种可能性较小。无论最终决策如何，议息结果都将影响着金价短期内出现较大波动性。 对于黄金投资新手而言，了解美联储议息动向不仅能洞悉宏观经济趋势，更能为把握黄金行情提供重要 依据。为此，领峰环球黄金平台将通过下文简单介绍美联储此次会议召开的背景和市场预测情况，以便 投资者更好地把握议息风波下的黄金行情。 一、宏观经济背景与市场动态 2025年4月国际市场经济数据喜忧参半：部分发达经济体通胀有所回落，而新兴市场则受原材料价格波 动影响风险加剧。美国方面，劳动力市场稳健，4月非农就业人数大超预期增加17.7万，失业率维持 4.2%，劳动力参与率上升。 ...

每经编辑 毕陆名 北京时间5月7日上午，现货黄金日内大跌2.00%，报3361.82美元/盎司。截至发稿，现货黄金跌近1.6%，现报3376.2美 元/盎司。 | | 现货黄金 V A XAU | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3376.20 + | | | -54.16 -1.58% | | | | | 09:57:22 | | 开盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 昨收 | | 3433.19 | 3434.69 | 3360.18 | 3430.36 | | 分时 王日 | 分钟 日线 周线 月线 | | MA VIP | | | | | A 3500.54 | | | | | 3465.45 | | | | | 3430.36 | 回收业务也异常活跃。一名黄金回收商介绍，从4月中旬开始，黄金回收的规模就在激增。尤其是黄金回收价格一度 攀升至800元/克以上，不少客户排队预约回收黄金。"五一"假期回收的规模也很大，忙到"手软"，单日回收量达平时 的2倍。 在采访中，多数消费者对于黄金投资的态度保持理性。他们认为，黄金已经处于历史高位，短期内价格起起伏伏很正 常，从长期来看黄金作 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices has led to banks raising the minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investor behavior [1][2][3] Group 1: Bank Adjustments - China Merchants Bank (CMB) has raised the minimum investment threshold for gold accounts from 800 RMB to 1000 RMB, marking a 25% increase [1] - This is the fourth increase by CMB in 2023, and it is the largest adjustment to date [2] - Other banks, such as Everbright Bank and Bank of China, have also raised their minimum thresholds, with Everbright Bank increasing it from 700 RMB to 1000 RMB, a nearly 43% rise [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The frequent adjustments in investment thresholds are attributed to significant fluctuations in gold prices and regulatory requirements [3] - Analysts predict that gold prices may rise, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 2025 price forecast from $3300 to $3700 per ounce, and UBS estimating a potential price of $3500 per ounce within the next 12 months [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Experts suggest that the recent price corrections in gold may provide a buying opportunity for investors, despite the risks associated with short-term volatility [4] - It is recommended that investors limit their gold asset allocation to no more than 20% of their total assets and avoid leveraged operations [4]

5.7黄金行情走势分析： 黄金技术面分析：突发重大消息，中美准备关税和谈，重大利空，黄金早盘3438美元一线跳水60多美 元，日内应该触顶了；如无重大利多推动，早盘高点3438不应再突破，否则一旦突破3500必定会破，只 是3500以上走多远则不清楚。黄金早盘自3438位置开启回撤，当前预计早盘先止跌于3350支撑区域，短 期而言，要留意黄金周线是否会构成黄昏之星形态。一旦黄昏之星结构形成，则黄金将极大概率确认阶 段性见顶，并在配合周线顶背离的情况下出现大幅度的回撤行情！不过，日线走势反复较大，还是要重 点关注消息面对走势的影响！ 早上黄金开始砸盘，速度太快，除非提前挂单，否则空单根本没有机会进场。现在第一波下跌3360基本 上到位，接下来反弹关注3400附近，也就是3438-3360的黄金分割位61.8%位置。市场有些消息主宰多 空，趋势的不像往常。连续的上涨或者下跌，多数都是消息主宰一天就已经走出足够的涨跌幅。所以金 价的表现是非常靓眼！流动性够高，今天开始看空调整！ 换资前言： 早安，屏幕前的你，只要还有明天，今天就永远是起跑线。聪明的人看得懂,精明的人看得准,高明的人 看得远。不要为这个市场而惊叹，要 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government has decided to engage in talks with the U.S. based on a thorough assessment of global expectations and domestic interests, with Vice Premier He Lifeng leading the discussions [2] - The Chinese economy has shown a strong start in 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, and the government aims for a growth target of around 5% for the year [6] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has released a model rental contract to enhance clarity and risk prevention in urban housing leases, aiming to optimize the utilization of existing housing resources [8] Group 2 - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant increase in engineering project investments, with 18,000 projects reported in March alone, accounting for 46.5% of the total for the quarter [10] - The People's Bank of China conducted a total of 9.05 billion yuan in standing lending facility operations in April, with interest rates set to maintain stability in the money market [11] - The tourism market experienced a notable rebound during the "May Day" holiday, with 314 million domestic trips taken, reflecting a 6.4% increase year-on-year, and total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8% [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led multiple commercial banks to raise the minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation products, prompting investors to be cautious about investment risks [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Investment Thresholds - A major state-owned bank has increased the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products from 750 yuan to 850 yuan, effective April 23 [1]. - A joint-stock bank has raised the minimum investment for regular gold accumulation from 700 yuan to 1000 yuan, while maintaining the additional purchase amount at 100 yuan [1]. - Since March of this year, the minimum thresholds for gold accumulation products across various banks have ranged from 750 yuan to 1000 yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The increase in minimum investment thresholds is attributed to a continuous rise in gold prices, with both London cash and Shanghai gold prices increasing by over 20% this year [1]. - The gold accumulation business is popular among small investors due to its flexibility and convenience, allowing for both active and regular accumulation through digital banking channels [2]. - Investors are advised to be aware of the inherent risks associated with gold accumulation products, which are linked to gold price fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events, central bank purchasing behaviors, and market sentiments [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Future Outlook - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term holding strategy for gold and consider dollar-cost averaging to mitigate investment costs [3]. - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish, driven by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and ongoing global central bank purchases of gold [3]. - Despite the positive outlook, gold prices may experience significant short-term volatility, necessitating careful risk management and investment strategy formulation [3].

Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in gold prices have surprised many, with prices rising sharply after a brief decline following the May Day holiday [2][3] - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic data from the U.S., and central bank purchasing behavior [5][6] Price Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22 to $3220 per ounce by May 4, marking an 8% decrease [2] - Following the holiday, gold prices rebounded sharply, with spot gold rising over $80 to exceed $3360 per ounce on May 6, representing a 2.75% increase in just one day [3] Factors Behind Price Changes - The announcement of a 100% tariff on imported films by Trump led to a sell-off in U.S. entertainment stocks, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold [5] - Mixed economic indicators from the U.S., including a decline in GDP and rising unemployment claims, have shifted expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakening the dollar and increasing gold demand [5] - Geopolitical instability, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, has further driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [5] Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally have increased their gold purchases, with a reported 12% increase in gold buying in Q4 2024 compared to the previous year [6] - India's gold reserves now account for over 9% of its total reserves, indicating a trend of reducing reliance on the dollar and increasing demand for gold [6] Implications for Retail Investors - The volatility in gold prices poses risks for retail investors, as rapid price changes can lead to significant losses [7] - While some consumers have taken advantage of lower prices to purchase gold jewelry and bars, the resale value of such items often does not match the purchase price, making it a less favorable investment [7] - The fluctuations in gold prices serve as a reminder of the complexities of financial markets, suggesting that investors should seek expert analysis before making investment decisions [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in gold purchases resembles past speculative behaviors in other asset classes, indicating a potential market top rather than a genuine investment opportunity [2][4][25]. Group 1: Market Behavior - The gold market is experiencing a frenzy, with many consumers rushing to buy gold as prices drop, reminiscent of past speculative bubbles in stocks and cryptocurrencies [2][4]. - Recent price fluctuations have led to a rush of buyers, with individuals believing they are capitalizing on low prices, despite historical data suggesting otherwise [10][12][25]. - The behavior of consumers in the gold market reflects a common psychological phenomenon known as FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), driving them to make impulsive buying decisions [25][27]. Group 2: Investment Misconceptions - Many consumers mistakenly equate purchasing gold jewelry with making a sound investment, failing to recognize the high costs associated with jewelry and the difficulty in liquidating such assets [14][16]. - The distinction between investment-grade gold (like bullion) and jewelry is crucial, as the latter is primarily a consumer good rather than an investment vehicle [16][27]. - The perception of gold as a safe-haven asset is challenged by the reality that its price is influenced by various external factors, including monetary policy and geopolitical events, rather than just supply and demand [17][19][22]. Group 3: Historical Context - Historical trends indicate that when retail investors, particularly less informed ones, begin to flood into the gold market, it often signals a peak in prices [25][32]. - The article highlights past instances where mass buying by consumers led to significant price declines, suggesting that current behaviors may lead to similar outcomes [25][32]. - The current price of gold, while lower than its recent highs, is still significantly above historical lows, raising questions about the wisdom of current buying patterns [10][12][30].