第十九届深圳国际金融博览会暨2025中国金融机构年会日前在深圳举行。在"中国银行业年会"分论坛上，阳光保险集团首席经济学家邱晓华发表题为"中国经济 分析与展望"的主题演讲。 邱晓华指出，过去一年，中国经济顶住了复杂的外部压力，以及内部转型升级的阵痛，在风浪中实现了稳中有进的发展，全年有望实现年初制定的5%左右的GDP增 长目标。 他认为，这份成绩单背后对应四个关键因素：宏观政策积极有为；深化改革和扩大开放持续释放制度红利；消费继续发挥"压舱石"作用；外部冲击的时效性特征使 进出口波动得到缓冲。 展望未来，邱晓华从经济周期、科技革命与地缘政治三个维度进行了深刻剖析。他表示，虽然前行路上仍面临挑战，但中国经济正在积蓄新的发展动能，未来发展 前景值得期待。 自身周期视角：第四次经济调整接近尾声 从中国经济自身的发展周期回顾，改革开放以来的历程并非一帆风顺，而是经历了数次起落调整。 邱晓华在演讲中清晰地梳理了前三个主要周期：80年代末的价格改革闯关、90年代末的亚洲金融危机以及2008年的国际金融危机，每一次中国经济都通过政策的优 化和改革开放的深化，成功走出了困境，并迈上了新的发展台阶。 他认为，当前中国经济正处在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying logic of fiscal work and the role of local governments in China's economic development, as highlighted in the book "Being Involved" by Professor Lan Xiaohuan [3][4][6]. Group 1: Understanding Fiscal Work - The book reveals that fiscal work is not merely about managing numbers but is essential for understanding government behavior, development strategies, and resource allocation [4][5]. - It encourages a shift from a technical focus on budget reports to a deeper analysis of policy implications and their alignment with national governance modernization [3][4]. Group 2: Enhancing Budget Supervision - The analysis of local government competition and incentive mechanisms is crucial for effective budget supervision, emphasizing the need for proactive guidance and early warning systems [4][5]. - Understanding the deep-seated mechanisms behind local government debt is essential for developing sustainable budget management practices [5]. Group 3: Aligning with National Development Goals - The book outlines the transition from a production-oriented government to a service-oriented and innovative government, urging budget supervision to focus on strategic national priorities [6][7]. - It highlights the importance of ensuring that budget allocations are aligned with key national strategies such as technological self-reliance and green transformation [6]. Group 4: Commitment to People's Welfare - The narrative stresses that all economic actions of the government should ultimately benefit the people, reinforcing the need for budgetary decisions to prioritize public welfare [7][8]. - It calls for a focus on the sustainability of social policies and the effective implementation of fiscal measures that directly impact citizens' lives [7].

央视网消息：在2025年年初的时候，记者分别采访了国内外的各金融机构，当问到他们如果用一个 关键词形容中国经济时，他们都选择了"韧性"这个词。而展望2026年，当记者再次问到这个问题时，他 们会给出怎样的答案呢？ ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions have released strategy reports for 2026, indicating that China's economy will continue to show steady growth next year [1][2]. Economic Growth Outlook - There is a positive consensus among various institutions regarding China's economic trajectory in 2026, driven by policy support, structural upgrades, and the release of potential [2]. - Morgan Stanley predicts moderate growth for China's economy in 2026 under a backdrop of appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing [2]. - UBS expects more precise policy support in 2026, contributing to resilient economic activity [2]. Export and Manufacturing Resilience - Exports remain a core support for economic growth, with strong resilience observed in manufacturing and exports [3]. - Analysts from various institutions believe that China's "going global" strategy will further enhance profit growth opportunities for enterprises [3]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - The potential of the domestic market is accelerating, with a series of consumption-boosting policies expected to play a key role in expanding domestic demand [4]. - The rise of new consumption sectors is injecting fresh momentum into economic growth, with a focus on brands gaining market recognition and expanding overseas [5]. Key Economic Themes - Resilience, innovation, stability, and openness are identified as key themes for the Chinese economy [6]. - The shift from traditional factor-driven growth to technology-driven growth is highlighted, with a focus on emerging technologies like AI and quantum technology [6][7]. - The stability of domestic policies is seen as a solid foundation for innovation and a crucial guarantee for steady economic progress [8]. Financial Sector Insights - Institutional openness and sustainable development concepts are viewed as vital for the continuous vitality of China's economy in the context of open cooperation [9].

央视网消息：最新出炉的经济数据显示，今年前十月，外商投资和铁路货运等领域成绩喜人，中国 经济韧性十足。 ...

央视网消息：11月17日，多部门公布1至10月经济数据，显示中国经济持续呈现稳中向好的态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic downturn in China is primarily driven by the adjustment in the real estate sector, which has significant implications for overall economic performance. Stabilizing the real estate market and activating consumer demand are essential for economic recovery [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Real Estate - Real estate contributes up to 60% of China's GDP, and its decline directly affects overall economic performance [3][8]. - A rough estimate indicates that for every 100 yuan decrease in property value, household consumption decreases by 14 yuan, leading to a significant reduction in GDP [3][4]. - The real estate sector's investment in 2023 has dropped by 10% year-on-year, dragging down GDP by 1.5 percentage points, with related industries contributing to a total impact of 25% on GDP [8]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - A proposed "dual pillar policy" includes issuing 3,000 yuan unconditional consumption vouchers totaling 4 trillion yuan, equivalent to 3% of GDP, to stimulate consumer spending [8]. - Establishing a national real estate restructuring trust company funded by the central government is recommended to manage industry risks and prevent crisis escalation [8]. - Historical evidence from 2020 shows that consumption vouchers effectively revitalized the economy post-lockdown, suggesting a similar approach could yield positive results on a national scale [8]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite current challenges, China's supply side remains robust, with growth in sectors like telecommunications, integrated circuits, and online sales [6]. - The economy's underlying strengths include a large market of 1.4 billion people, a complete industrial system, and ongoing technological investments, providing a solid foundation for recovery [11]. - The economic slowdown is viewed as a temporary issue rather than a chronic problem, with the potential for rapid recovery if key variables are stabilized and demand is activated [11].

本报讯 （记者毛艺融）11月14日，毕马威发布2025年四季度《中国经济观察》报告（以下简称"报告"）。报告指出，2025 年前三季度，中国经济实际GDP同比增长5.2%，高于去年同期0.4个百分点，完成全年5%左右增长目标的进度良好。 产出方面，报告提到，展望下一阶段，内需回升将带动生产修复。伴随政策性金融工具的投放与使用，制造业投资、基建 投资需求回升，相关投资所需设备器具、上游建材等产品有望迎来新一轮生产扩张。 （编辑 郭之宸） 消费方面，报告提到，前三季度服务消费表现维持较强韧性。此外，新型消费业态蓬勃发展，数字消费增长强劲。展望四 季度，在线上"双十一""双十二"等促销活动与线下中秋国庆等假期消费的共同提振下，消费市场仍有一定支撑。预计服务消费 仍是四季度消费增长的重要拉动力。 投资方面，报告提到，展望下一阶段，制造业投资表现有望在四季度迎来修复。在政策支持引导下，基建投资与房地产投 资也将逐步回升，步入新稳态。 ...

Core Points - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) emphasizes the theme "New Era, Shared Future," showcasing China's commitment to open cooperation and its vibrant market potential [1] - The expo, initiated by Chinese President Xi Jinping, represents a significant decision for promoting a new round of high-level opening-up and is a major initiative for China to actively open its market to the world [1] Group 1 - The number of participating enterprises at the expo has reached a historical high, reflecting the robust vitality of China's large-scale market [1] - The CIIE is the world's first national-level exhibition focused on imports, highlighting China's unique position in global trade [1] - The event serves as a platform for economic integration between China and the global economy, facilitating dialogue and collaboration [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrated resilience and progress in the first three quarters of 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.2%, reflecting strong internal dynamics and effective policy responses to external challenges [1][2][18]. Economic Performance - GDP exceeded 100 trillion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, which is an acceleration compared to previous periods [2]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, remaining stable throughout the year [2][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with core CPI rising by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in demand [2][17]. Structural Quality - The proportion of high-tech manufacturing value added reached 16.7%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, showcasing a shift towards higher quality growth [3]. - Green energy production and consumption are increasing, with significant growth in new energy vehicles and other green sectors [4][9]. Innovation and Development - Major technological advancements were noted, with high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 9.6% and 9.7% respectively [7]. - The innovation index of China entered the global top 10 for the first time, highlighting rapid improvements in innovation capabilities [7]. Employment and Income - The per capita disposable income of residents grew by 5.2%, aligning with economic growth, indicating effective measures in safeguarding livelihoods [4][11]. - Employment stability was supported by economic growth and the expansion of the service sector, which accounted for 58.4% of GDP [14]. Price Trends - CPI showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, primarily influenced by food and energy prices, while core CPI indicated a recovery trend [16][17]. - The government is expected to implement policies to stabilize prices and enhance consumer demand [17][20]. Future Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain stability and progress, supported by strong internal dynamics and proactive macroeconomic policies [18][20]. - Continued emphasis on high-quality development and structural reforms will be crucial for addressing challenges and sustaining growth [20].