2月4日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。 特朗普表示，美国和中国都是伟大的国家，美中关系是世界上最重要的双边关系。我同习近平 主席有着伟大的关系，我很尊重习近平主席。在我和习近平主席引领下，美中在经贸等领域进 行了良好互动。我乐见中国成功，美方愿与中方加强合作，推动两国关系取得新发展。我重视 中方在台湾问题上的关切，愿同中方保持沟通，在我任内保持美中关系良好稳定。 来源丨新华社 习近平指出，过去一年，我们保持着良好沟通，在釜山成功会晤，为中美关系领航把舵，受到 两国人民和国际社会欢迎。我高度重视中美关系。新的一年，我愿同你继续引领中美关系这艘 大船穿越风浪、平稳前行，多办一些大事、好事。美方有美方的关切，中方有中方的关切。中 方言必信，行必果，说到做到。只要双方秉持平等、尊重、互惠的态度相向而行，就可以找到 解决彼此关切的办法。今年中美两国各自都有不少重要议程，中国"十五五"开局起步，美国将 迎来建国250周年，两国将分别主办亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议、二十国集团领导人峰 会。双方要按照我们达成的共识，加强对话沟通，妥善管控分歧，拓展务实合作，不以善小而 不为，不以恶小而为之，一件事一件事去做，不 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the U.S. economy and U.S.-China relations. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The Federal Reserve is expected to adjust its monetary policy, with two interest rate cuts anticipated in 2026, reducing the benchmark rate from 3.5-3.75% to 3.0-3.25% [2][3][6]. 2. **Balance Sheet Reduction**: The reduction of the balance sheet may be delayed until 2027, which could lead to decreased market liquidity and impact equity markets negatively in the short term [1][2][6]. 3. **Internal Consensus on Rate Cuts**: There is a consensus among Federal Reserve board members regarding interest rate cuts, with four members explicitly supporting them, while opinions on balance sheet reduction are divided [3][5]. 4. **Impact of New Fed Chair**: The selection of Walsh as the new Fed Chair is seen as a move to signal the independence of the Federal Reserve and enhance the credibility of the U.S. dollar [5][20]. 5. **U.S.-China Relations Stability**: Short-term stability in U.S.-China relations is expected, with negotiations in April 2026 likely to cover investment, agricultural procurement, financial openness, exchange rate transparency, and supply chain issues [1][9][18]. 6. **Geopolitical Risks**: The likelihood of severe conflict between the U.S. and China is low, which is viewed positively for financial markets [7][18]. 7. **Tariff Policies**: The U.S. has implemented various tariffs under Section 232, affecting products like steel, aluminum, and automobiles, with potential future investigations into other sectors [12][21]. 8. **Market Reactions**: The market anticipates that Walsh's policies will initially pressure equity markets due to reduced liquidity but may stabilize the dollar and support the bond market in the long run [6][20]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Negotiation Strategies**: The U.S. may use the 301 and 232 investigations as leverage in negotiations with China, particularly regarding compliance with trade agreements [10][11]. 2. **Regulatory Developments**: New regulations limiting cooperation between U.S. and Chinese pharmaceutical companies are not yet fully implemented, with updates expected by December [17]. 3. **Long-term Economic Dependencies**: The economic interdependence between the U.S. and China suggests that a complete breakdown in relations is unlikely, despite ongoing tensions [18][21]. 4. **Future of Gold and Silver Prices**: The volatility in gold and silver prices is attributed to the declining credibility of the dollar, with potential for recovery if the new Fed Chair maintains professional integrity [22].

杨禹评论员个人简介、研究方向与核心演讲主题 一、个人简介 杨禹，1969年7月9日出生于北京，毕业于首都经济贸易大学，现任中央电视台特约评论员、中国发展改革报社副社长，兼任中国经济传媒协会理事会特邀副 会长。他拥有近30年新闻从业经验，曾担任《中国经济导报》新闻中心主任，主导全国两会、中央经济工作会议等重大报道，并获全国新闻论文大赛金奖、 中国新闻奖三等奖等荣誉。2009年起成为央视特约评论员，出镜《朝闻天下》《新闻联播》《焦点访谈》等栏目，以权威解读和亲和风格著称，被誉为"央 视评论五虎将"之一，并获《新周刊》"2010中国电视榜"推委会特别大奖。 二、研究方向 杨禹的研究领域聚焦于 时政、经济与社会发展，具体包括： 宏观经济政策与改革：深度解析国家宏观调控、产业政策及经济形势，如"十五五"规划、高质量发展、民营经济等。 小城镇与区域发展：作为国家发改委城市和小城镇发展改革中心研究员，长期研究城镇化、城乡融合及区域协调发展。 中国式现代化进程：从政治、经济、社会多维度解读中国式现代化的内涵与路径，强调"强国建设、民族复兴"的核心目标。 新闻传播与政策解读：探索时政新闻的传播方法论，倡导"权威性与亲和力并存" ...

在当日举行的国防部例行记者会上，有记者问，据报道，美国防部发布2026年国防战略报告，提出在亚 太"以实力而非对抗"慑止中国，要与中国军队开展广泛交流，确保对华战略稳定，寻求"体面的和平"， 同时在第一岛链构建拒止防御体系，确保地区军力平衡。请问对此有何评论？ "青山遮不住，毕竟东流去。"蒋斌表示，事实早已证明，任何遏制围堵中国的企图都不可能得逞，相互 尊重、和平共处、合作共赢才是中美正确相处之道。中方愿同美方一道，推动中美关系稳定发展，同时 坚定维护自身主权、安全、发展利益。 （来源：天津日报） 蒋斌说，希望美方树立客观理性对华认知，坚持不冲突不对抗的底线，停止渲染所谓"中国军事威胁"， 停止煽动阵营对抗，停止在涉及中方核心利益的问题上说一套做一套，以实际行动推动两军关系健康稳 定发展。 转自：天津日报 新华社北京1月29日电（记者 王春涛）国防部新闻发言人蒋斌29日表示，任何遏制围堵中国的企图都不 可能得逞，相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢才是中美正确相处之道。 ...

【#美报告称中国是其面对最强大国家##美国防报告承认中国实力世界第二# 】日前，美国发布2026年 国防战略报告，不再把中国定位为"步步紧逼的威胁"，而是追求和中国建立"相互尊重的关系"。中国政 法大学副教授何涛表示，这份报告意识形态对抗的色彩明显淡化了，美国已经越来越开始承认中国既有 的强大实力，报告里明确地讲，中国无疑已经是世界第二强大的国家，而且还是美国自19世纪以来面对 过最强大的国家。（央视《海峡两岸》） ...

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者徐奇渊 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报 道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的必读刊物。 文/中国社会科学院美国研究所研究员 徐奇渊 20 26年达沃斯论坛落幕，人们意识到，一个以交易、筹码、不确定性和 多极博弈为特征的新时代已然开启，"中国"一词高频出现在各类分论坛中 ——正如资深观察者所言："中国没有占据舞台，却占据了坐标系"。 从1月19日至23日，笔者随团参加了在瑞士达沃斯举办的世界经济论坛。由于行程1月初才最终确定，只能预订到距离会场较远的酒店，距离会场两小时车 程（每天往返四小时），不过每晚价格仍约2800元。头一天上山的途中，笔者还遭遇了比往年更严格的安检，抽查过程用了半个多小时。价格如此之高， 安检如此之严，这次论坛注定不平凡。 果然，论坛甫一开幕便呈现出两个截然不同的叙事维度：一边是科技巨擘们对人工智能（AI）未来的热烈畅想——英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调，AI正成为新 的基础设施，而且已经触发"人类史上最大规模的基础设施建设"。马斯克的意外 ...

1月26日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者提问，我们注意到自上月公布新版《国家安全 战略》以来，美国明显加大了对西半球的投入。近日美国国会众议院"中国特设委"主席莫伦纳率团访问 巴拿马等中美洲多国，声称是"为应对中国对当地的胁迫、施压和干预，对抗中国影响力"等，并要在巴 拿马运河港口运营等经贸安全领域竞赢中国。中方对此有何回应？ 郭嘉昆强调，中方坚决反对美国个别政客对中美洲国家同中国的正常交往指手画脚，有关言论是彻头彻 尾的谎言谬论，只能镜像其自身意识形态偏见和冷战思维。 郭嘉昆指出，中方始终秉持相互尊重、平等互利、开放包容、合作共赢的原则，同中美洲国家开展友好 合作，为当地人民带来了实实在在的好处，受到有关国家的欢迎。"我们敦促美方政客停止操弄涉华议 题，多做有利于促进地区发展繁荣的事。" 1月26日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。有记者提问，我们注意到自上月公布新版《国家安全 战略》以来，美国明显加大了对西半球的投入。近日美国国会众议院"中国特设委"主席莫伦纳率团访问 巴拿马等中美洲多国，声称是"为应对中国对当地的胁迫、施压和干预，对抗中国影响力"等，并要在巴 拿马运河港口运营等经贸安全领域 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 U.S. Defense Strategy Report reflects a shift in language regarding China, indicating a potential easing of tensions and a focus on mutual respect in bilateral relations [2][3] Group 1: U.S. Defense Strategy Priorities - The report outlines four main priorities: safeguarding U.S. homeland security and interests in the Western Hemisphere, deterring China in the Indo-Pacific through strength rather than confrontation, increasing the responsibility of U.S. allies and partners, and fully strengthening the U.S. defense industrial base [1] - The prioritization of these issues indicates a recalibration of U.S. interests rather than a simple fluctuation in attitudes towards China, emphasizing a reassessment of the costs and benefits of global strategic expansion [1] Group 2: China’s Position and Response - The report marks a significant change in the U.S. stance towards China, no longer emphasizing the "China threat" but rather recognizing China as a "definite power" in the Indo-Pacific, which may open avenues for cooperation in various fields [2] - Despite the U.S. adjustments, China remains committed to its core interests and principles, particularly regarding Taiwan, which is viewed as an inseparable part of its territory [3] Group 3: Ongoing Strategic Dynamics - The essence of U.S. strategic containment towards China remains unchanged, necessitating vigilance and awareness of ongoing military confrontations in the Indo-Pacific [4] - China continues to advocate for peaceful development and resolution of international disputes through dialogue, contrasting with the U.S. approach centered on deterrence and confrontation [4] Group 4: Future of U.S.-China Relations - The relationship between the U.S. and China is crucial, and both nations should aim to be partners and friends, respecting each other's core interests and development paths to foster a stable foundation for cooperation [5] - Focusing on building a new type of major power relationship based on mutual respect and cooperation is deemed essential for the benefit of both nations and the global community [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Oil and Fat Industry**: The potential positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on CBOT soybean oil is countered by the approaching Chinese New Year, which reduces the likelihood of continuous long - position trading. The soybean oil basis may still decline in the short term. Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short - term correction. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with limited upside potential in the short term [1]. - **Cotton Industry**: US cotton is in a low - level oscillation. The high cotton consumption due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills in China, along with the expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area, provides strong support for Zhengzhou cotton. Attention should be paid to the support level around 14,500 [2]. - **Sugar Industry**: Internationally, raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are likely to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the approaching end of Chinese New Year stocking and lack of upward drivers, but some support from prices below production cost and a positive commodity market atmosphere [3]. - **Jujube Industry**: With the market focusing on peak - season consumption, the spot price of jujubes is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [4]. - **Apple Industry**: As the Chinese New Year stocking period arrives, the market in some apple - producing areas is warming up. The futures price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and some short - position exits [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch Industry**: In the short term, the tight supply of corn and pre - festival stocking demand support price increases, but the continuous policy - driven corn release and limited high - price transmission restrict the upward space [7]. - **Pig Industry**: The spot price of pigs has strengthened, but the supply pressure is expected to increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is likely to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [10]. - **Meal Industry**: US soybeans are oscillating strongly. The domestic meal market is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space due to factors such as low first - quarter arrival expectations and high - level inventory decline [13]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg supply is stable, and the demand may weaken. As egg prices reach a high level, there is a risk of price correction if the terminal digestion ability is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 23, 2026, soybean oil futures (Y2605) increased by 0.12%, palm oil futures (P2605) decreased by 0.38%, and rapeseed oil futures (OI2605) decreased by 0.12% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35%, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.22%, and the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% [1]. - **Basis**: The soybean oil basis decreased by 7.75%, the palm oil basis increased by 53.85%, and the rapeseed oil basis remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The soybean oil inventory in Chinese coastal crushing plants is at a high level since 2022, the palm oil inventory in Chinese ports is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing [1]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, cotton 2605 decreased by 0.24%, cotton 2609 decreased by 0.17%, and ICE US cotton decreased by 0.11% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% [2]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: The circular inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, and the consumption of cotton by downstream spinning mills is high [2]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, sugar 2605 increased by 0.43%, sugar 2609 increased by 0.33%, and ICE raw sugar decreased by 1.54% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.19% [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative sugar production in China decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, jujube 2605 increased by 0.63%, jujube 2607 increased by 0.51%, and jujube 2609 increased by 0.44% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Cangzhou's top - grade jujubes increased by 0.11%, and the prices of first - grade and second - grade jujubes remained unchanged [4]. - **Inventory**: The number of jujube warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the number of effective forecasts increased by 6.68% [4]. Apple Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, apple 2605 increased by 0.48%, and apple 2610 increased by 0.63% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The basis decreased by 3.57% [5]. - **Inventory**: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - **Corn**: On January 26, 2026, corn 2603 increased by 0.22%, the basis decreased by 9.09%, and the north - south trade profit increased by 90.91% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: Corn starch 2603 increased by 0.23%, the basis decreased by 3.57%, and the starch - corn 03 spread increased by 0.36% [7]. Pig Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, the main pig contract increased by 5.31%, pig 2605 decreased by 0.38%, and pig 2603 decreased by 0.30% [10]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions showed different changes [10]. - **Industry Data**: The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.79%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 5.45% [13]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 0.67%, and the basis increased by 5.56% [13]. - **Soybean**: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 0.86%, and the basis decreased by 16.30% [13]. Egg Industry - **Futures Prices**: On January 26, 2026, egg 03 decreased by 1.58%, and egg 04 decreased by 1.15% [14]. - **Spot Prices**: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.87%, and the basis increased by 26.72% [14]. - **Industry Data**: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 3.33%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.31%, and the egg - feed ratio increased by 17.36% [14].

根据《华尔街日报》的报道，特朗普政府近期解雇了两位与中国科技政策紧密相关的官员——莉兹·坎农及其副手。她们隶属于负责保障美国国家安全的商 务部工业与安全局（BIS）下的信息与通信技术服务办公室。坎农推行的政策主要是限制中国科技的发展，这令许多美国鹰派人士感到震惊和忧虑，他们认 为这可能暗示特朗普在对华谈判中将表现出一定的软化态度。 这一决定背后，存在两个深层次原因。首先，是为即将到来的访华铺平道路。特朗普早已明确表示，他计划在四月份访问中国，并希望通过此次会晤增强个 人的公信力和执政能力。尤其是在美国面临经济挑战的背景下，与中国的贸易往来无疑是一项重要机会。同时，他也希望借此为即将到来的中期选举积累政 治资本。解雇这两名官员，显然是特朗普为访华营造良好氛围的一步棋，期望在谈判桌前取得实际成果。 对我国而言，这一事件提醒我们必须保持清醒。在感受到美国政策微调的同时，我们仍需对其潜在战略意图保持警惕。历史经验告诉我们，外交关系中的频 繁变化往往伴随着新的挑战与试探。因此，在当前国际环境下，我国需要稳重，坚持自己的核心利益，并与美国进行务实对话，争取在未来的谈判中占据主 动。 总的来说，特朗普解雇反华官员这一举动似 ...