当下，美国正深陷"关税—通胀—衰退"三角困局。在这个历史 转折点上，中国打出的这张牌可谓中美博弈下的政策组合拳 ——它是一次有力度的"宽信用+对冲风险"组合。 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 非常时期非常政策。 当美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿反复强调"需要更多数据"，而人民币汇率在"五一"假期表现出足够 的底气时，中国央行率先出手，宣布"双降"（降准与降息），宽松政策先于美联储落地。 5月7日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局（下称"金融 监管总局"）、中国证券监督管理委员会三大金融管理部门联合发布"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳 预期"的措施。 中国人民银行宣布，下调政策操作利率10个基点，下调再贷款利率0.25个百分点，下调个人住房公 积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，将科技创新与技术改造再贷款额度从5000亿元提升至8000亿元，设 立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等10项增量政策。 这10项政策可归为三大类：一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，直接增加流动性供应，降低存款 准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；二是价格型政策，7天期逆回购 利率下调10个 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a "double reduction" policy, which includes a cut in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, ahead of the Federal Reserve's actions, indicating a proactive approach to monetary policy [1][2] - The PBOC announced a 10 basis point reduction in policy operation rates and a 0.25 percentage point cut in both the re-lending rate and the personal housing provident fund loan rate, alongside increasing the re-lending quota for technological innovation from 500 billion to 800 billion yuan [2][3] - A total of ten new policies were introduced, categorized into three types: quantity-based policies to increase liquidity, price-based policies to lower funding costs, and structural policies to support key sectors such as technology and consumption [2][3] Group 2 - The financial regulatory authorities in China are set to introduce eight new policies aimed at adapting financing systems to new real estate development models and supporting small and micro enterprises [3][4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting long-term capital inflow, with measures including enhancing operations by the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. and reforming the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3][4] - The coordinated efforts of the three major financial management departments reflect a break from previous market concerns regarding delayed or hesitant policy responses [3][5] Group 3 - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by a "tariff-inflation-recession" triangle, which is challenging the independence of monetary policy and creating initial cracks in the dollar's hegemonic foundation [5][6] - The Chinese government's recent policy measures are seen as a strategic move in the context of U.S.-China economic negotiations, aiming to create a "policy buffer" ahead of high-level talks [6][7] - The A-share market responded positively to the policy announcements, indicating market confidence in the measures taken, although the reaction was more rational compared to previous policy-induced exuberance [6][7]

二、稳定股市、楼市是金融政策重要着力点 证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2024 年 05 月 07 日 "双降"后债市怎么走 国务院新闻办公室于 2025 年 5 月 7 日（星期三）上午 9 时举行新闻发布会， 请中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管理委员会负责人介 绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。对于债市投 资者来说有哪些需要关注的重点，接下来我们将进行分析。 一、降准降息落地，货币政策加码宽松以稳定经济 在本次答记者问中，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示要进一步实施好适度宽松的 货币政策，人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有 三大类共十项措施。其中包括降低存款准备金率 0.5 个百分点，预计将向市场提 供长期流动性约 1 万亿元。下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，预计将带动贷款市场 报价利率（LPR）同步下行约 0.1 个百分点。 由于美国滥用关税政策，并对我国出口造成一定负面影响，4 月制造业 PMI 下 行至了 49%，回落至荣枯线以下。货币政策有必要加码宽松从而稳定经济，通 过降准可以为银行体系提供长线资金，有利于降低银行负债成本，并促进信贷 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is still in a bull market despite perceptions to the contrary, as indicated by the current credit cycle phase [2][3][5] - The current phase is identified as "tight monetary + loose credit," which has been ongoing for three years, leading to a bull market in bonds and a potential for stock market growth [5][6] - Evidence of a shift towards a loose credit cycle includes government policies aimed at increasing liquidity in the economy, such as lowering consumer loan rates and facilitating low-interest loans for technology companies [6][7] Group 2 - The bull market does not imply that all stocks will rise uniformly; historical examples show that even in bullish conditions, a significant percentage of stocks can decline [9] - Institutions have better access to information and resources compared to retail investors, making their stock selections more reliable [9][11] - Monitoring institutional trading behavior is crucial for identifying potential investment opportunities, as active institutional inventory data correlates with stock price performance [11]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a narrow range of consolidation on April 28, with bank stocks strengthening, as China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank reached historical highs during the session [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.2% to 3288.41 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.62% and 0.65% respectively, with the CSI A500 down by 0.25% [1] - A-share trading volume was 1.08 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - As of April 28, 2025, a total of 4706 listed companies in A-shares had disclosed their Q1 reports, with 2121 companies reporting a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for approximately 45.07% [1] - Dongwu Securities analyzed that the medium-term outlook for China's monetary policy is leaning towards "loose monetary" [1] - The People's Bank of China implemented an excess renewal of MLF in April, signaling liquidity adjustment and potentially paving the way for "moderate easing" [1] Group 3 - The A500 ETF fund (512050) tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry balanced allocation and leading selection, covering all sub-sectors [2] - The fund utilizes a cyclical sampling method to maintain dynamic balance, closely tracking changes in China's economic structure, and integrating value and growth attributes [2] - This approach aims to help investors smooth out style-switching volatility and achieve one-click allocation of core A-share assets [2]

分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-04-28 研究所 政治局会议明确以国内政策的确定性对冲外部不确定性。存在增 量的要点主要是：创设新的结构性货币政策工具，提及设立服务消费 与养老再贷款；设立新型政策性金融工具，用途是支持科技创新、扩 大消费、稳定外贸等；加大高品质住房供给；持续稳定和活跃资本市 场。所以，会议并未提到前期市场预期的财政政策的总量扩容，以加 快政策的落地实施为主，增量信息需要关注政策性金融工具等，以往 这一工具主要针对投资需求，并且历史上的"宽信用"效果较好，本 次针对科技、消费和外贸等发力。 MLF 操作和关键会议之后，债市对于货币宽松的想象空间反而缩 小了。MLF 和买断式回购可能对降准有替代作用，但其并未具备降准 在总量货币政策中的鲜明信号意义。会议之后，对于货币政策，依然 是降准可以期待，降息比较遥远的状态，对于债券交易而言，似乎与 会议前变化不大。 流动性维持稳定，短端不再调整，已经是后续想象中较为不错的 情况。银行负债和流动性内生环境的修复仍在继 ...

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In February, the social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion RMB, which is 737.4 billion RMB more year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.2%[4] - New RMB loans added in February were 650.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 326.7 billion RMB year-on-year[4] - Corporate loans increased by 1.04 trillion RMB in February, a year-on-year decrease of 540 billion RMB[3] Group 2: Household and Corporate Loan Performance - Household loans showed a net decrease of 389.1 billion RMB, which is a reduction of 201.6 billion RMB compared to the previous year[3] - The performance of short-term household loans was better than that of medium and long-term loans, with short-term loans decreasing by 2.74 billion RMB[3] - Corporate medium and long-term loans saw a decrease of 750 billion RMB year-on-year, attributed to accelerated debt replacement and slow recovery post-Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M2 growth rate remained stable at 7% in February, while M1 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%[5] - The increase in non-bank deposits was 2.8 trillion RMB, which is 1.7 trillion RMB more year-on-year[5] - The necessity to boost demand is highlighted, with potential for structural interest rate cuts and increased personal consumption loan issuance[5]