Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton market is affected by multiple factors including domestic demand, international supply - demand changes; domestic cotton spot trading is cold, and the US cotton market shows fluctuations due to supply - demand adjustments [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session decline of 0.63%; CY2509 closed at 19,770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.10% and a night - session decline of 0.35%; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.25%. Trading volume and open interest of CF2509 decreased, while CY2509's open interest increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 25 to 10,769, and effective forecasts increased by 14 to 364; cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 2, and effective forecasts increased by 2 to 2 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Domestic spot prices showed different trends, with some regions rising and some falling. For example, Shandong's price rose by 54 yuan/ton (0.36%), and Hebei's price rose by 59 yuan/ton (0.40%), while the international cotton index M decreased by 0.08% [1] - **Spread Data**: CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton; the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Overall trading was cold, spinners' purchasing willingness was weak, and sales basis was firm. Different regions had different basis quotes, such as 2024/25 southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 mostly quoted at CF09 + 1100 - 1300 [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: Spinners raised yarn prices by 200 - 300 yuan, but sales followed slowly. In the traditional off - season, fabric mills replenished stocks on a need - to - basis, and traders' speculative demand was insufficient. Spinners' operating rates continued to decline, and market confidence was low [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton 12 first fell and then rose. Due to poor weekly sales data, it once hit a one - and - a - half - month low. After the USDA released the June supply - demand report, it rebounded as the USDA lowered the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast to 14 million bales (from 14.5 million bales in the May report) and raised the 2024/25 US cotton exports to 11.5 million bales (from 11.1 million bales in the May report), reducing the 2025/26 ending stocks to 4.3 million bales [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that cotton has insufficient upward momentum. The domestic cotton spot market has average trading, and the cotton - textile market has entered a slack season with weakening trading and mostly falling prices. The ICE cotton rebounded due to factors such as the dollar's decline, crude oil's rise, and concerns about the slow sowing progress [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,275 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% daily decline, and its trading volume was 203,391 lots, a decrease of 60,819 lots from the previous day. CY2507 closed at 19,525 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% daily decline, and its trading volume was 6,105 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day. ICE cotton 07 closed at 66.18 cents/pound with a 1.67% increase [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,102, a decrease of 55 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 374, a decrease of 6 from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,193 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,569 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from the previous day, a - 0.06% decline [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was average, and the spot basis was temporarily stable. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with less than 3.5 impurities was around CF09 + 850, and most quotes of the same quality were above CF09 + 900, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market weakened and entered the slack season. Tightly spun/Compact - spun 21 - 26 count cotton yarns and high - grade 40 count cotton yarns had relatively good sales, while other varieties were sluggish. Prices mostly declined, and spinning mills had difficulty in making high - price transactions and mainly negotiated for sales [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton rebounded, closing with a 1.67% increase. It was affected by the dollar's decline, crude oil's rise, and concerns about the slow sowing progress. As of the week of June 1st, the US cotton sowing progress was 66%, compared with 68% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 69% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 5 月 29 日 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉窄幅震荡调整。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 14572 元/吨，较 上一交易日跌 23 元/吨。20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Cotton shows a volatile trend with a lack of driving forces. The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 closed at 13,410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,400 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. Its trading volume was 173,996 lots, an increase of 8,451 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 760,814 lots, a decrease of 976 lots [1] - CY2507 closed at 19,650 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.33% and a night - session closing price of 19,620 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. Its trading volume was 5,635 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,692 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE Cotton 07 closed at 66.06 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.59% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 11,359 sheets, a decrease of 50 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 327 sheets, a decrease of 21 sheets [1] - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 15 sheets, a decrease of 7 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0 sheets, an increase of 22 sheets [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price in Shandong was 14,618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price in Hebei was 14,514 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The 3128B index was 14,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The international cotton index M was 74.88 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous day [1] - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,771 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the mainstream basis remained firm. The basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 800, and that of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29 - 31B with impurity within 3 was CF09+1300 - 1400. The freight for cotton shipped out of Xinjiang by truck was basically stable [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and trading could be maintained. Yarn prices were mainly stable, but the industry was skeptical about the sustainability of orders and overall confidence was not strong. The all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with obvious insufficient orders and average shipments. Weaving mills' quotations were stable, and actual orders could be negotiated according to quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar [3]

2025 年 5 月 22 日 棉花：震荡走势 缺乏明显驱动 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 CF2509 | 单 位 元/吨 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 0.34% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 13480 | 夜盘涨幅 0.30% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CY2507 | 元/吨 | 13,440 19,735 | 0.38% | 19755 | 0.10% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 66.05 | -0.11% | | - | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | CF2509 | 手 | 315,010 | 171,555 | 754,145 | 4,350 | | | CY2507 | 手 | 5,674 | -1,999 | 18,319 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 11,45 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。USDA5月报：25/26年度产量下降，消费增 加，期末库存不变。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。3月份我国 棉花进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年 度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14577，基差1187（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton declined by over 2% in the week ending May 16, pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and favorable weather in major US cotton - growing areas. The domestic textile industry's operation is stable, but the downstream confidence is weak, with开机率 decreasing due to poor profits and limited new orders. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly driven by market optimism from Sino - US talks, but there is a risk of decline if Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to drop. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 67.61, High at 68.89, Low at 64.75, Close at 65.14, Down 1.58 or 2.37%, Volume 120,492 lots, Volume Change 19,586 lots, Open Interest 113,188 lots, Open Interest Change 7,367 lots - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 12,945, High at 13,480, Low at 12,920, Close at 13,390, Up 440 or 3.40%, Volume 1,295,371 lots, Volume Change 487,287 lots, Open Interest 572,606 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,478 lots - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: Open at 19,205, High at 19,855, Low at 19,160, Close at 19,620, Up 400 or 2.08%, Volume 32,098 lots, Volume Change 9,847 lots, Open Interest 20,605 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,578 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and good weather in major US cotton - growing areas, ICE cotton declined. For the 2024/25 old - crop, USDA raised US cotton exports by 200,000 bales, but less than expected. The estimated ending stocks of 4.8 million bales pressured the July contract. For the 2025/26 new - crop, with a 11.7% year - on - year decrease in area and a 15.2% abandonment rate, production is expected to reach 14.5 million bales, and ending stocks will increase by 400,000 bales to 5.2 million bales [1][5] - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending May 8, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 27,700 tons, up 86% week - on - week and 2% above the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 74,700 tons, down 17% week - on - week and 5% below the four - week average. The total signed sales of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton reached 2.6296 million tons, accounting for 109% of the annual forecasted exports. The cumulative export shipments were 1.997 million tons, accounting for 76% of the total annual signed volume. New flower pre - sales were poor, and Pakistan continued to cancel contracts due to weak domestic demand [6] - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: In February, cotton imports decreased month - on - month, and so did the exports of cotton yarn and textile clothing. As of April 30, the Cotton Corporation of India sold about 200,000 bales of cotton, reducing its inventory to 7 million bales. The arrival volume this season has reached 27.5 million bales. The daily arrival volume is about 27,000 bales, mostly from Maharashtra. In February, raw cotton imports were 49,126 tons, down 17% from January but higher than last year. The cumulative imports in the first seven months of this season reached 439,237 tons, mainly from Australia and the African Franc Zone. In February, raw cotton exports were 37,651 tons, down 8% from the previous month and 69% from February 2024. Bangladesh is the main destination. Cotton yarn exports in February were 92,100 tons, slightly lower than in January and 8% lower than in February 2024. The total cotton yarn exports in the first seven months of this year were 625,064 tons, 8% less than in the same period of 2023/24. Textile exports in February were $2.05 billion, down 6% month - on - month but slightly higher than in February 2024 [8] - **Brazil**: Recent trading was light. CONAB slightly raised the 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 3.905 million tons, mainly due to the increased planting area in Bahia. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton has been sold through primary channels. Farmers are hesitant to sell at current prices. In Mato Grosso, about 16% of the 2026 - season production has been sold. In April, raw cotton exports were 239,145 tons, similar to March and last year. Turkey is the largest buyer, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. The cumulative exports from July to April exceeded 2.55 million tons, more than in the same period of 2023/24 [9] - **Pakistan**: Cotton demand is low. Favorable weather has promoted sowing, but water shortages in some areas of Sindh still hinder field operations. In Punjab, sowing progress is faster than last year, exceeding 60% of the planned target, while in Sindh, the sowing completion rate is 33%. The local cotton market is inactive. Ginning mills are eager to clear inventory, but few spinning mills are willing to buy due to low profits [10] - **Australia**: Cotton exports in March were low. The production report is good, with an expected output of about 5.5 million bales, potentially the highest since 2022/23. However, untimely rainfall during the critical growth period may affect cotton quality, and the market is closely watching the early grading results [10] - **Bangladesh**: Cotton imports in April remained stable. Many spinning mills have good orders and replenishment needs, but difficulties in opening letters of credit still hinder transactions. In April, cotton imports were 148,449 tons, slightly up month - on - month and 12% up year - on - year. African Franc Zone cotton is the main import source, followed by Brazilian and Indian cotton. The total imports in the first nine months of 2024 were 1.25 million tons, up 16% year - on - year [11] - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operation Rates**: As of the week ending May 16, India's textile enterprises'开机率 was 75.5%, Vietnam's was 66%, and Pakistan's was 59% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price and Transaction**: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly in the week ending May 16, but spot transactions became lighter. After Sino - US tariff withdrawals, although some orders returned and backlogged orders were re - shipped, new orders were limited. The profit of downstream industries deteriorated as the price increase of cotton yarn and grey cloth was less than that of cotton, leading to low willingness to replenish raw materials [1][2][12] - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 16, the registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton were 11,548 lots, and the forecasted warehouse receipts were 365 lots, totaling 11,913 lots, equivalent to 500,346 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, 11,015 were Xinjiang cotton and 533 were local cotton [12] - **Downstream Market**: The transaction in the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the week. The prices of 40 - 60 count cotton yarns increased by 300 - 500 yuan/ton. The profit of inland spinning mills was slightly negative, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills was good. Spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory first increased and then decreased, currently at a moderately low level, and the开机率 was stable. The overall situation in the all - cotton grey cloth market improved slightly. After the Sino - US joint statement, some traceable orders returned, but the overall order volume recovery was not obvious. The inventory of grey cloth remained high, and the开机率 of weaving mills was about 50%. Weaving mills were not willing to buy cotton yarn and mainly purchased as needed [13][14] 3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mills' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises'开机率 (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises'开机率 (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are weak. Without new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or major changes in US trade agreements, the upward momentum of ICE cotton is insufficient. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly due to market optimism. If Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to decline, Zhengzhou cotton futures may fall. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Sino - US negotiation has made progress with reciprocal tariff cuts. The USDA May report shows that the 2025/26 cotton production will decline while consumption will increase, and the ending inventory remains unchanged. In April, textile and clothing exports were $24.19 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In March, China's cotton imports were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.4%; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31%. The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2024/25 production at 6.16 million tons, imports at 1.5 million tons, consumption at 7.6 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.31 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - The basis shows that the national average price of spot 3128b is 14,484 yuan, with a basis of 1039 yuan (for the 09 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - The inventory situation: The Ministry of Agriculture's April estimate of the 2024/25 ending inventory is 8.31 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - From the chart perspective, the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions: The net short positions are increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - In terms of expectations, textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year in April, indicating that exports are in a good state. With the Sino - US tariff cuts and last week's interest rate and reserve ratio cuts, there are many short - term positive factors, leading to a rapid rebound in futures. The main 09 contract of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the vicinity of the previous gap, and the selling pressure above has increased, weakening the upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 13,300 - 13,600 in the near future [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - Bullish factors: The previous Sino - US reciprocal tariff increases have been reduced, and there will be a foreign trade restocking period in the next 90 days. The futures price is close to the historical low [5]. - Bearish factors: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, and Europe has introduced a bill to restrict imports [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Production**: In 2025/26, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.314 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9% (- 653,000 tons); India's production is expected to be 5.334 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% (- 109,000 tons); while some regions like 'E' are expected to increase production by 7% (273,000 tons). The total global production is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% (- 710,000 tons) [10]. - **Global Consumption**: In 2025/26, global cotton consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% (304,000 tons) [10]. - **Global Import and Export**: The total global imports in 2025/26 are expected to be 9.759 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% (510,000 tons), and exports are expected to be 9.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% (517,000 tons) [11]. - **Global Ending Inventory**: The global ending inventory in 2025/26 is expected to be 17.065 million tons, with little change compared to the previous year [11]. - **China's Cotton Situation**: In 2024/25 (April estimate) and 2025/26 (May forecast), the beginning inventory is 7.12 million tons and 8.31 million tons respectively; the sown and harvested areas are increasing; the production in 2025/26 is expected to be 6.25 million tons; imports are expected to be 1.4 million tons; consumption is expected to be 7.4 million tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 8.53 million tons [18]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market still lacks upward drivers [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 12,750 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.70%, and its trading volume was 243,543 lots, a decrease of 12,789 lots from the previous day, while the position increased by 343 lots to 758,897 lots; CY2507 closed at 18,790 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.16%, its trading volume was 5,366 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position increased by 1,045 lots to 19,713 lots; ICE Cotton 07 closed at 68.53 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.25% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,040, an increase of 202 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,315, a decrease of 243; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 10, unchanged from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1, an increase of 9 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,848 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 13,663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 77 yuan or 0.56% from the previous day; the price in Shandong was 14,246 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan or 0.45% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; the 3128B index was 14,183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day; the international cotton index M was 74.90 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 1.41% from the previous day; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 22,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous day; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: The basis of domestic cotton spot was temporarily stable. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly around CF09 + 750, and some were quoted higher than CF09 + 850 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly above CF09 + 1000, and a small amount of low - price ones were between CF09 + 950 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang; the transaction basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was partly between CF09 + 1250 - 1300 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was poor, and textile enterprises mainly negotiated sales. The price of cotton yarn was stable with a weak trend, market confidence was insufficient, and the operating rate of textile enterprises continued to decline [2] - **US Cotton Situation**: During the long holiday, ICE cotton rose by more than 3%, mainly due to a sharp increase on May 2nd, benefiting from the optimistic expectation of the trade agreement; the fundamental driving force in the international cotton market was still weak, the weather in the US cotton - growing areas improved, and the weekly export sales data of US cotton was average [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年4月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 棉花现货市场价 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 USDA:4月消费调低，库存增加，略偏空。ICAC:4月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费不 变，期末库存略增，略偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比增12.4%。1-2月份我国棉 花进口15万吨，同比减少56.8%；棉纱进口21万吨，同比减少12.3%。农村部4月24/25 年度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14210，基差1300（09合约） ...