1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was in high - level oscillation yesterday. Wind All - A dropped 0.68% with a trading volume of 3.28 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24%, the CSI 500 Index declined 0.97%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.57%, and the SSE 300 Index increased 0.1%. Recent economic regulation policies provide fundamental support. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP last week, which helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long - run. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading may increase risk - aversion sentiment. The market is in high - level oscillation with increased short - term volatility, and the risk of a significant index decline is low in the medium - to - long - term. The overall view is "oscillation" [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.20%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.02%. The central bank conducted a 1505 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase on January 26. After the central bank's structural interest - rate cut, fiscal policies continue to exert force. In the context of continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the driving force for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest - rate range oscillation continues. The overall view is "relatively strong" [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 26, 2026, compared with January 23, IH rose 0.67% (20.4 points), IF increased 0.22% (10.2 points), IC dropped 2.17% ( - 188.2 points), and IM declined 2.67% ( - 227.4 points) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.57% (17.4 points), the SSE 300 increased 0.10% (4.5 points), the CSI 500 fell 0.97% ( - 83.5 points), and the CSI 1000 declined 1.24% ( - 105.3 points) [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03% ( - 0.026 points), TF dropped 0.03% ( - 0.03 points), T declined 0.01% ( - 0.015 points), and TL rose 0.19% (0.21 points) [4]. 3.2 Market News - The ChiNext Index fell more than 1%, the SSE Composite Index dropped 0.2%, and the SZSE Component Index declined 0.81%. Sectors such as semiconductor chips, commercial spaceflight, robotics, and AI applications led the decline. Nearly 4000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets fell [6]. - In 2025, domestic residents' travel trips reached 65.22 billion, an increase of 9.07 billion compared with the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. Among them, urban residents' domestic travel trips were 49.96 billion, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; rural residents' domestic travel trips were 15.26 billion, a year - on - year increase of 22.6% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Contract Trends**: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts from January 2025 to January 2026 [8]. - **Basis Trends**: Charts present the trends of the current - month basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM from January 2025 to January 2026 [9][11]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Contract and Yield Trends**: Charts display the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts and treasury bond spot yields from January 2025 to January 2026 [15]. - **Basis, Spread, and Interest - rate Trends**: Charts show the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest - rates from January 2024 to January 2026 [16][19][23]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - **Exchange - rate Trends**: Charts illustrate the trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange - rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen from January 2025 to January 2026 [25][26][29][30]. 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [32]. - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market fund - flow tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Ningbo Bank and Industrial Bank, expecting their stock prices to outperform the CSI 300 Index by over 20% within the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated that there is still room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, with a commitment to continue a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [9][10]. - Ningbo Bank reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 8.01% and a net profit growth of 8.13% for 2025, with significant increases in intermediary business income by 30.72% and total assets growing by 16.11% [12]. - Industrial Bank's revenue and net profit showed slight increases of 0.24% and 0.34% respectively, with total assets surpassing 11 trillion yuan and a stable non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.08% [12][13]. - The report highlights a recovery in bank holdings by active management funds, with a slight increase in the proportion of bank sector holdings to 1.06%, indicating potential for further investment [22]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - Pan Gongsheng emphasized the need for a flexible and effective use of monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and RRR reductions, to ensure liquidity remains ample and aligns with economic growth expectations [9][10]. Bank Performance - Ningbo Bank's strong performance is characterized by a low NPL ratio of 0.76% and a high provision coverage ratio of 373%, indicating robust risk management [12]. - Industrial Bank's performance is stable, with a focus on maintaining asset quality and a solid provision coverage ratio of 228% [12][13]. Market Trends - The banking sector saw a slight increase in active fund holdings, suggesting a potential recovery in investor confidence and interest in bank stocks [22]. - The report notes that the banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices experienced declines, with the banking index down by 2.70% [23].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Guangdong Branch reported that in 2025, the social financing scale in Guangdong reached 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 366.1 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating enhanced support for the real economy [1] - By the end of 2025, the balance of loans in Guangdong reached 29.9 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, with a credit structure continuously optimizing [1] - The balance of deposits was 38.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, reflecting a recovery in deposit growth [1] Financing Structure and Policy Tools - The Guangdong Branch focused on four key areas: technological innovation, consumption, characteristic industries, and foreign trade, utilizing structural monetary policy tools effectively [2] - A special quota of 20 billion yuan was allocated for supporting agriculture and small enterprises, guiding financial institutions to innovate products and services [2] - In the technology innovation sector, a 20 billion yuan "Yue Ke Rong" quota was established to support credit products like intellectual property pledge loans and technology achievement transformation loans [2] Consumption and Industry Support - A 20 billion yuan "Huan Xin Loan" quota was introduced to stimulate consumption in sectors such as automotive, home appliances, and hospitality, aligning with the province's "old for new" policy [3] - The "Yue Hui Loan" with a 20 billion yuan quota was designed to support characteristic industries, implementing tailored service systems for various sectors [3] - A 20 billion yuan "Yue Trade Loan" was launched to facilitate cross-border trade financing, supporting foreign trade enterprises in new markets [3] Future Directions - The People's Bank of China Guangdong Branch plans to implement various policies to enhance the effectiveness of structural monetary policy tools and promote effective domestic demand [4] - There will be a focus on directing more resources towards key areas and weak links in Guangdong, reinforcing financial support for the recovery of the real economy [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Shenzhen Branch reported that the social financing scale in Shenzhen exceeded 630 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of over 150 billion yuan year-on-year, with direct financing accounting for about 40% of the total, reaching a historical high [1] Financing Overview - By the end of 2025, Shenzhen's total deposits and loans ranked third among major cities in China, with a total deposit balance of 14.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, and an increase of over 1 trillion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, which is an increase of 800 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - The total loan balance reached 9.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, and an increase of 482.84 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, which is an increase of over 200 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Corporate loans increased by 289.66 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 164.04 billion yuan, making it the main driver of credit growth [1] Credit Structure - By the end of 2025, loans for technology, green, and digital economy industries accounted for a higher proportion of total loans, increasing by 1.9, 3.3, and 1.4 percentage points respectively compared to the end of 2024, effectively supporting the transition to high-end, intelligent, and green production [2] - The balance of loans to the private economy reached 4.35 trillion yuan, accounting for 43.7% of total loans, while inclusive small and micro loans amounted to 2.01 trillion yuan, significantly supporting the development of Shenzhen's private economy [2] Technological Financial Services - The establishment of a systematic technology financial service mechanism has effectively supported the development of new productive forces, with the issuance of technology bonds by non-financial enterprises in Shenzhen totaling 44.15 billion yuan, ranking second among cities in China [3] - By the end of 2025, the balance of technology loans reached 2.28 trillion yuan, with policies incentivizing banks to support technological innovation and transformation, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 54.5 billion yuan in related loan issuance [3] Structural Financial Tools - In 2025, various structural tools incentivized local financial institutions to issue loans in relevant fields exceeding 210 billion yuan, marking a historical high [4] - The balance of loans incentivized by technology innovation and transformation re-loans reached 70.6 billion yuan, benefiting 2,996 technology enterprises and 137 technology transformation projects, ranking among the top cities in China [4] - Carbon reduction support tools have financed a number of green infrastructure and small clean energy projects, with cumulative carbon reduction loans exceeding 20 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1] Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC aims to maintain ample liquidity and align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, indicating room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates this year [1] - The PBOC will enhance the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the comprehensive financing costs low [1] Structural Policy Focus - The PBOC will optimize the design and management of structural monetary policy tools, guiding financial institutions to increase support for major strategies, key areas, and weak links [1] - Recent monetary policies have been released to optimize the elements of structural monetary policy tools [1] Financial Market Stability - The PBOC emphasizes maintaining stable financial markets, managing expectations, and ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable at a reasonable level [2] - There will be a focus on strengthening supervision across various markets, including bonds, foreign exchange, and gold [2] Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC plans to optimize the monetary policy target system, reducing emphasis on quantitative targets and allowing for more effective interest rate adjustments [3] - A market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism will be established to improve the flow from central bank policy rates to market rates [3] Macro-Prudential Management - The PBOC will enhance monitoring and assessment of systemic financial risks, recognizing the strong correlation between economic operations and financial risks [4] - The scope of macro-prudential management will be expanded to include financial markets, non-bank financial institutions, and internet finance [4] Tool Development and Legal Framework - The PBOC will enrich and standardize macro-prudential management tools, ensuring a comprehensive management process [5] - Legislative efforts will be made to strengthen the legal framework for macro-prudential policies and enhance coordination with monetary and micro-prudential regulations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China Shenzhen Branch will continue to strengthen the collaboration between industry, finance, and fiscal policies to support the high-quality development of Shenzhen's economy [4][8]. Financial Performance - As of the end of 2025, Shenzhen's total deposits and loans ranked third among major cities in China, with a total deposit balance of 14.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and an increase of over 1 trillion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, which is 800 billion yuan more than the previous year [3][7]. - The total loan balance reached 9.97 trillion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, with an increase of 482.84 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, which is over 200 billion yuan more than the previous year [3][7]. Structural Policy Tools - In 2025, the scale of loans issued by financial institutions in Shenzhen through various structural tools exceeded 210 billion yuan, marking a historical high [3][7]. - The re-loan for technological innovation and transformation reached 70.6 billion yuan, benefiting 2,996 technology enterprises and 137 technology transformation projects, ranking first among all cities in China [3][7]. - Loans for service consumption and elderly care exceeded 80 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the total in Guangdong Province [3][7]. - Carbon reduction support tools have issued over 20 billion yuan in loans to support green infrastructure and small-scale clean energy projects [3][7]. Future Directions - The People's Bank of China Shenzhen Branch will focus on implementing structural monetary policy tools effectively, leveraging Shenzhen's advantages in private SMEs and active R&D [4][8]. - There will be an emphasis on enhancing policy publicity, project reserves, and financing connections, utilizing fiscal subsidies, guarantees, and risk cost-sharing measures to amplify policy incentives [4][8].

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2] - The PBOC plans to flexibly use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity [2] - There is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions this year, with an emphasis on managing interest rate policies to keep financing costs low [2] Structural Policies - The PBOC has introduced a series of structural monetary policies, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools [3] - The PBOC has set up a dedicated 1 trillion yuan relending facility for private enterprises and increased the relending quota for agricultural and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan [3] - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial markets and manage expectations, ensuring the RMB exchange rate remains stable [3] Real Estate Market - The real estate market in 2025 is expected to stabilize with four positive signals, including a noticeable stabilization in sales scale for new and second-hand homes [4] - There is increasing differentiation among cities and regions, with some core cities showing signs of activity in the real estate market [4] - Inventory levels have shown a certain degree of decline, contributing to the overall market recovery [4] Investment and Innovation - A strong domestic demand market is crucial for promoting technological innovation, as it attracts global resources, talent, and capital [5] - A domestic company with leading foundational model capabilities could benefit from a stronger consumer environment, enhancing subscription revenue and model investment interactions [5] AI and Technology Developments - Baidu has officially released the Wenxin large model 5.0, which supports various forms of information understanding and output [6] - Baichuan Intelligent has launched the Baichuan-M3 Plus, which significantly reduces the hallucination rate in medical scenarios and introduces evidence anchoring technology for verifiable medical judgments [8] Market Regulations - The State Administration for Market Regulation has prohibited certain gas companies from establishing joint ventures, marking a significant enforcement of antitrust laws in the public utility sector [15] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, encouraging participation in centralized procurement [13] International Investment Trends - The Swedish largest private pension fund has sold a significant portion of its U.S. Treasury holdings due to concerns over the unpredictability of the U.S. government and rising debt levels [20] - Chinese enterprises are expected to maintain healthy and orderly development in foreign investments, with direct investments reaching $174.38 billion in 2025, a 7.1% increase from the previous year [14]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will advance six key areas to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2] - The first area focuses on optimizing the monetary policy target system, particularly intermediate variables, and reducing emphasis on quantitative targets to enhance the role of interest rate adjustments [1] - The second area involves improving the mechanism for the issuance of base currency with Chinese characteristics, gradually utilizing government bond transactions in liquidity management to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] Group 2 - The third area aims to enhance the market-oriented interest rate formation, adjustment, and transmission mechanisms to ensure smooth transmission from central bank policy rates to market benchmark rates and various financial market rates [2] - The fourth area seeks to improve the structural monetary policy tool system to better guide and incentivize financial institutions in optimizing loan allocations [2] - The fifth area focuses on refining the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, maintaining market determination of the exchange rate while ensuring exchange rate flexibility and preventing excessive fluctuations [2] - The sixth area emphasizes increasing policy communication and transparency, establishing a credible, normalized, and institutionalized market communication mechanism [2]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations [1] - The PBOC plans to flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - There is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year, and the PBOC will ensure effective execution and supervision of interest rate policies to keep the comprehensive financing costs low [1] Group 2 - The PBOC has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and established a dedicated 1 trillion yuan refinancing for private enterprises [2] - The PBOC has increased the refinancing quota for agricultural and small enterprises by 500 billion yuan to 4.35 trillion yuan and for technological innovation and transformation by 400 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan [2] - The PBOC aims to maintain stable financial market operations, manage expectations, and keep the RMB exchange rate stable at a reasonable and balanced level [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector is expected to maintain a steady credit growth throughout the year, with corporate loans being a significant support for the "opening red" of credit in January, which is seen as a barometer for financial support to the real economy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Credit Growth and Corporate Loans - In December 2025, new RMB loans increased by 910 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan, while the balance growth rate reached 6.4% [1]. - Corporate loans are anticipated to continue supporting credit growth, with an expected increase in social financing of approximately 5.5 trillion to 5.6 trillion yuan in January 2026, a year-on-year increase of about 300 billion yuan [2]. - Analysts predict that corporate loans will perform slightly better than the previous year due to factors such as a later Spring Festival, increased working days, and a robust project reserve [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Margins - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies, including a 25 basis point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, which is expected to enhance banks' willingness to lend in key areas [4]. - Despite ongoing pressure on interest margins due to potential rate cuts, the optimization of funding costs is expected to support a narrowing of the interest margin decline [4][5]. - Analysts indicate that the net interest margin has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with expectations of a significant reduction in the margin decline in 2026 [5]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Risks - The overall asset quality of banks is expected to remain stable, with corporate asset quality benefiting from the steady progress of debt resolution [5]. - Non-performing loan ratios for several banks, including Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China CITIC Bank, indicate a stable asset quality, with ratios of 1.26% and 1.15% respectively [5]. - Retail non-performing loan risks are anticipated to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring the real estate market and residents' income expectations [5].