Core Viewpoint - DBS maintains a "Hold" rating on Longyuan Power (00916, 001289.SZ) due to subdued growth prospects, adjusting the target price for H-shares from HKD 6.7 to HKD 7.2 and for A-shares from RMB 16.6 to RMB 17.5, with a forecasted profit decline of approximately 2% in 2025, followed by a rebound of 7% in 2026 [1] Group 1 - Longyuan Power has implemented several strategies to mitigate the impact of declining electricity prices, including participation in green electricity trading, strategic transactions in high-price areas, and increasing the proportion of long-term electricity sales contracts [1] - The company's wind power electricity price has only decreased by 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, while the photovoltaic electricity price remains relatively stable [1] - Longyuan Power has adjusted its growth strategy to focus on enhancing the efficiency of existing projects, prioritizing the development of high-return new projects, and emphasizing quality over scale expansion [1] Group 2 - The company is estimated to add 5 GW of installed capacity this year, slowing down to 2.8 GW next year [1] - In the first half of this year, the company's electricity generation increased by 12.5% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, leading to a 3.4 percentage point upward adjustment in the annual electricity generation growth forecast to approximately 12% [1] - Consequently, profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 3% to 6% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant drop in new installations of solar and wind power in June, suggesting that the supply-side pressure is easing, and green electricity is expected to experience a reversal [2][10]. - The increase in the proportion of renewable energy is expected to stimulate the demand for flexible power generation, benefiting coal-fired power plants and aiding in the absorption of renewable energy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the power sector, particularly coal-fired power companies with resilient quarterly performance and leading firms in flexible coal-fired power transformation [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of June 30, the total installed power generation capacity in the country reached 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. Solar power capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, up 54.2%, and wind power capacity was 570 million kilowatts, up 22.7% [7][13]. - In June, new installations of solar and wind power dropped significantly, with solar power adding 14.36 GW and wind power adding 5.11 GW, down 78.56% and 21.21% respectively from May [7][13]. - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 162 hours year-on-year to 1504 hours [7][13]. Electricity Demand - In June, the total electricity consumption increased by 5.4%, with the first, second, and third industries, as well as residential electricity consumption, showing growth rates of 8.7%, 2.4%, 7.1%, and 4.9% respectively [7][10]. - The third industry's electricity demand showed resilience, with internet and related services growing by 27.4% year-on-year [7][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coal-fired power companies such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Baoneng New Energy, as well as leading firms in flexible coal-fired power transformation like Qingda Environmental Protection [2]. - It also suggests prioritizing undervalued green electricity operators, particularly in the Hong Kong market, and companies with high stock project ratios and short-term revenue certainty [2]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of July 21-25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, while the electricity and public utilities sector index fell by 0.03%, underperforming the broader market [55][56].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the green electricity trading market in Guangxi has seen significant growth since its launch in 2022, with a trading volume of 10.415 billion kWh by June 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 105.07% [1] - The rapid development of renewable energy is a key driver for the increase in green electricity trading volume, with renewable energy installed capacity reaching 53.29 million kW, a year-on-year growth of 70.7%, accounting for 48.5% of the total installed capacity in Guangxi [1] - The average trading price of green electricity has decreased by 27.15% year-on-year, shifting the market from being policy-driven to demand-driven, with traditional industries and foreign trade enterprises showing increased enthusiasm for green electricity consumption [1] Group 2 - Liu Zhou Guoxuan Battery Co., Ltd. is actively expanding its overseas market by exporting new energy vehicle batteries to countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand [2] - The company has consumed 21.226 million kWh of green electricity, which has helped reduce carbon emissions by 8,584 tons, enhancing its international competitiveness through green electricity consumption [2]

Core Viewpoint - The development of renewable energy in Guizhou is significantly advancing, with substantial investments and technological innovations leading to increased green electricity generation and utilization. Group 1: Investment and Infrastructure Development - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the Southern Power Grid Company has invested over 40 billion yuan in Guizhou to enhance the transmission of renewable energy, establishing a robust channel for green electricity [1] - As of June this year, the installed capacity of renewable energy in Guizhou reached 31.58 million kilowatts, surpassing thermal power to become the largest energy source in the region, accounting for 39.5% of the total [1] Group 2: Technological Innovations - Guizhou's power grid has developed automatic voltage control technology to stabilize the consumption of renewable energy, achieving a closed-loop system for 57 renewable energy stations by 2023 [2] - By 2025, Guizhou aims to achieve full coverage of centralized renewable energy automatic voltage control, reducing electricity wastage by over 100 million kilowatt-hours annually and maintaining a renewable energy utilization rate above 98% [2] Group 3: Industry Applications and Market Potential - The introduction of green electricity technology is transforming various industries in Guizhou, such as the promotion of electric brewing standards in the liquor industry and the development of mobile transformers to support tea production [3] - From January to May this year, the volume of green electricity traded in Guizhou reached 3.358 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a year-on-year increase of 210.16% [4] - Companies are increasingly favoring green electricity for its cost-saving benefits related to carbon tariffs and its alignment with market trends, enhancing their competitive edge [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy Grid-connected Electricity Prices" (Document No. 136) aims to clarify the trading rules and pricing mechanisms for new energy in both spot and medium-to-long-term markets, with varying execution policies across different provinces [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have already released implementation plans that require all new energy project grid-connected electricity to enter the market, establishing a sustainable pricing settlement mechanism [1]. - Shandong Province has issued draft proposals indicating that new energy projects will participate in market trading, which could significantly influence the national new energy market [2]. - There is uncertainty regarding the entry of distributed energy into the market, as some provinces have not clearly differentiated between centralized and distributed energy in their local policies [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Document No. 136 encourages a dual-track approach for spot and medium-to-long-term markets, allowing for price fluctuations between industrial peak prices and new energy cost returns [3]. - The current trend shows a significant decline in electricity prices in the spot market due to the increasing scale of new energy installations and falling coal prices, with some medium-to-long-term prices dropping to 20% below the benchmark price [3]. - The new policy stipulates that electricity included in the sustainable pricing settlement mechanism cannot simultaneously earn green certificate revenues, leading to a choice between compensation income and green certificate income for power generation companies [3][4]. Group 3: Green Certificate Market - The anticipated reduction in the availability of green certificates due to the new policy could significantly impact export-oriented companies and regions that rely on purchasing green certificates to meet renewable energy consumption responsibilities [4]. - The price of green certificates has surged from around 2 yuan per certificate in January to over 8 yuan following the release of Document No. 136, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4].

Summary of Conference Call on Guangdong's 136 Document Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Guangdong electricity market and the implications of the recently released 136 Document, which outlines policies for renewable energy projects in the region [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Flagship Pricing and Volume**: The flagship pricing and volume can be seen as a form of off-market subsidy, distinguishing it from on-market contracts [2]. 2. **Project Execution Terms**: The execution terms for existing and new projects are aligned with current policies, with specific durations set for offshore projects (14 years) and other new projects (12 years) [3]. 3. **Electricity Submission Requirements**: Participants must submit a percentage of their installed capacity based on historical utilization hours, with a maximum submission cap of 90% [4][27]. 4. **Market Participation**: The document emphasizes that if a project does not meet certain criteria (observable, measurable, adjustable, controllable), it may lose its eligibility to participate in bidding [7][8]. 5. **Settlement Rules**: The settlement rules for bidding outcomes are complex, involving calculations based on actual electricity generation and adjustments for green electricity trading [9][10]. 6. **Differences with Shandong**: Guangdong's approach requires all electricity to participate in daily submissions, contrasting with Shandong's model, which does not require such participation [12][13]. 7. **Regional Market Development**: The long-term goal is to establish a unified regional electricity market involving Guangdong and surrounding provinces, enhancing inter-provincial trading dynamics [21][22]. 8. **Impact of Supply and Demand**: The pricing dynamics will be influenced by supply and demand relationships, with potential adjustments to annual contracts based on market conditions [24][26]. 9. **Encouragement of Offshore Wind**: There is a potential differentiation in policies for offshore wind projects, which may receive more favorable treatment compared to other renewable sources [46][47]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Risk Management**: The document outlines the risks associated with market participation, particularly regarding forecasting accuracy and the financial implications of deviations from expected generation [14][15]. - **Investment Recovery Period**: The investment recovery period for projects is set between 8 to 12 years, reflecting the varying conditions across different types of projects and locations [42][43]. - **Future Clarifications**: There is an expectation for further clarifications regarding the treatment of existing projects and their integration into the new market framework [34][35]. This summary encapsulates the essential discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the implications of the 136 Document on the Guangdong electricity market and its future direction.

Carbon Neutrality Policy - The "14th Five-Year" green report highlights significant progress in green development, with forest coverage exceeding 25%, contributing to a quarter of the global greening area [4] - Air quality has improved, with 87% of days classified as good, a 3% increase from the previous five-year period [4] - The clean energy generation capacity has surpassed coal power, establishing the world's largest clean power system, with one-third of electricity being green [4][5] Zero Carbon Park Initiative - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other departments, has issued a notice to promote the construction of zero-carbon parks, focusing on energy structure transformation and resource conservation [6] - Eight key tasks have been outlined for the initiative, including energy efficiency improvements and advanced technology applications [6][9] Green Electricity Trading - A new mechanism for nationwide green electricity trading has been established, allowing renewable energy projects to participate under specific conditions [8] - The trading methods include centralized bidding and bilateral transactions, with a focus on market-driven pricing [8][9] Local Initiatives - Shanghai is developing a "Low-Carbon Lifestyle New Fashion Practice Zone," aiming to set a benchmark for urban low-carbon governance through systematic renovations [9][10] - The project will cover various fields, including low-carbon digitalization and green transportation, serving as a model for other major cities [10] Corporate Practices - Longi has partnered with Rafiqui to enhance the infrastructure for photovoltaic component recycling in Mexico, establishing a closed-loop system for recycling [10] - Changfeng has led the development of China's first ecological grading standard for synthetic leather, aiming to improve environmental performance and competitiveness in the global supply chain [11]

Core Insights - The National Green Power Index has seen a strong increase of 1.18%, with key stocks such as Jingyuntong hitting the daily limit and Lintong New Energy rising by 4.08% [1] - The green power ETF (159625) has also risen by 1.03%, indicating positive market sentiment towards green energy investments [1] Market Performance - The green power ETF recorded a turnover rate of 1.86% with a transaction volume of 5.6891 million yuan during the trading session [3] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume for the green power ETF was 27.9472 million yuan [3] - In the last six months, the green power ETF has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 101 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's share count has grown by 73.2 million shares in the same period, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - As of July 11, 2025, the net value of the green power ETF has increased by 8.98% over the past six months [3] Valuation Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the National Green Power Index is 18.84, which is below the historical average of 19.38%, indicating a low valuation compared to the past three years [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Power Index account for 56.91% of the index, with major players including Changjiang Electric Power, China Nuclear Power, and Three Gorges Energy [4][6] Trading Opportunities - Investors can access investment opportunities through the corresponding green power ETF linked fund (017057) [6]

Core Insights - Guangdong's green electricity trading volume reached 8.29 billion kilowatt-hours from January to June 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 60.2% [1] - The total installed capacity of renewable energy in Guangdong exceeded 78.5 million kilowatts by the end of June 2025, accounting for nearly 33% of the province's total installed capacity [1] - The installed capacity of offshore wind power surpassed 12.51 million kilowatts [1] Group 1: Green Electricity Trading - Guangdong initiated green electricity trading trials in June 2021, with prices dropping to 0.067 RMB per kilowatt-hour by mid-2023 [1] - As of June 2023, 77 new energy stations with a total rated capacity of approximately 5.9 million kilowatts were participating in the spot market settlement [1] Group 2: Electricity Pricing Mechanism Reform - In May 2023, Guangdong's electricity pricing mechanism underwent significant reform, allowing all renewable energy projects to enter the electricity market, with prices determined through market transactions [2] - By the end of June 2023, the number of trading entities in Guangdong reached 85,000, with market-based trading volume accounting for 68% of total electricity consumption [2] Group 3: Green Certificate Trading - The growth in market-based trading volume has led to an expansion in green certificate trading, with a recent contract signed between a Dongguan energy company and an international environmental commodities trader [2] - As of June 2023, the green certificate business covered four countries, with a service volume of 6 million certificates and a trading volume exceeding 6 billion kilowatt-hours, supporting product exports valued at over 30 billion RMB [2] Group 4: Green Electricity Demand - It is anticipated that Guangdong's total green electricity demand will exceed 12 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023, with major consumers concentrated in sectors such as computer communication, electronic equipment manufacturing, and petroleum and coal processing [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a plan to normalize electricity trading across grid operating areas, which will support electricity supply during the summer peak period and explore long-term green electricity trading agreements [1] Group 2 - The implementation of a normalized electricity trading mechanism is expected to enhance the stability and reliability of electricity supply during the summer months [1] - The initiative aims to facilitate the establishment of multi-year green electricity trading contracts, promoting sustainable energy practices [1]