目前，惠誉预计美联储将在9月和12月的货币政策会议上分别降息25个基点，并预计2026年还将进行三 次降息。相关预测基于当前经济数据路径及通胀与就业形势演变。 （文章来源：新华财经） 惠誉评估认为，关税增加引发的通胀上行压力目前仍属"温和"，但预计将在2025年晚些时候加速。该机 构指出："更高的通胀将抑制实际工资增长，并给美国消费者支出带来压力，美国消费者支出在2025年 已明显放缓。" 与此同时，美国就业市场呈现"明显"放缓迹象。惠誉称，这一趋势已在经济"硬数据"中显现，而不仅限 于情绪类调查指标。基于此，该机构判断，劳动力市场的疲软将促使美联储比此前预期更早采取宽松行 动。 新华财经北京9月10日电国际评级机构惠誉（Fitch Ratings）于10日发布最新全球经济展望，上调对2025 年全球GDP增长的预测、但同时指出，与2024年相比，今年全球经济增长将"显著"放缓。 根据惠誉数据，2025年全球GDP增长率预计为2.4%，低于2024年的2.9%；2026年增速预计将小幅放缓 至2.3%，2027年回升至2.6%。本次预测系在综合评估近期经济走势后作出，反映了全球经济整体动能 减弱的态势。 惠誉 ...

任职一年不到，日本首相石破茂还是决意辞职。当地时间9月7日傍晚18时许，石破茂召开记者会，正式确认自己将辞去自民党总裁一职，也将不再担任日本 首相。同时由于执政党自民党及其联盟伙伴在石破茂任内失去了国会两院多数席位，新首相的产生过程面临前所未有的政治挑战。这场政治风暴折射出自民 党内部的深刻矛盾。石破茂政府在物价高涨、美国关税政策等内外交困中黯然退场，为即将到来的权力重组拉开序幕。 被"逼宫" 自民党自1955年成立以来，几乎一直是日本政坛的主导力量。一旦自民党选出总裁，如果彼时自民党在众议院占多数，便会支持其总裁作为首相候选人。所 以，自民党总裁实际上相当于被默认为下任首相。 石破茂去年9月当选自民党总裁，任期至2027年9月。不过，在去年10月底和今年7月20日的众议院和参议院选举中，由自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟均未 过半数议席，创下自民党自1955年成立以来"最差战绩"。 自那以后，要求石破茂下台的呼声愈演愈烈。自民党内反对石破茂留任的部分中层议员已公开对媒体表示，"这一次必须换人，这样下去党派要被他拖垮 了"。这是"倒石破"阵营的坚定立场。据悉，因"政治黑金"事件导致党势低迷的原安倍派议员是逼迫石破 ...

美国StoneX的市场调查负责人罗娜·奥康奈尔：中美双方都理解彼此作为贸易伙伴的重要性， 最终将达成妥协。我认为不会再出现像4月宣布对等关税时那样的冲击。预计到12月底，金价 将朝着3000美元回落…… 9月2日，纽约黄金期货（主力合约月）和伦敦黄金现货价格均创出历史新高。日本经济新闻 （中文版：日经中文网）记者询问了专家对2025年底黄金现货价格的展望。 记者：金价的预期如何？ 罗娜·奥康奈尔 ： 预计到12月底，金价将向3000美元回落。地缘政治风险、美国降息、中央 银行购买黄金等仍将继续支撑金价，但许多因素在2023年下半年至2025年上半年的金价上涨 中得到消化。 罗娜·奥康奈尔（Rhona O'Connell） 美国关税政策的不确定性大部分已被市场考虑在内。中美双方都理解彼此作为贸易伙伴的重 要性，最终将达成妥协。我认为不会再出现像4月宣布对等关税时那样的冲击。 记者：美国的财政恶化不是金价的利好因素吗？ 罗娜·奥康奈尔 ： 是一个上涨因素，但以特朗普减税永久化为核心的大规模减税和支出法案 已于7月通过。这意味着不确定性消失了一项，不会成为市场走势上行的因素。关于债务上 限，共和党在两院中占据多数， ...

特朗普称美联储主席候选人名单缩小至三人 据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普表示，目前美联储主席候选人的名单已缩小至三人。其中包括白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什 以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。 特朗普还表示，他也会考虑美国财政部长贝森特。不过，贝森特表示无意担任这一职位。 数月来，特朗普持续要求美联储降息，由于美联储迟迟不愿降息，特朗普多次炮轰美联储现任主席鲍威尔，一度威胁要解除鲍威尔的职务。 美国失业率创近4年来新高 美联储主席候选人名单已缩小至三人。 美国市场预测平台"卡尔希"网站预测，目前美联储9月降息至少25个基点的可能性为99%。 美国劳工部5日公布的数据显示，8月，美国失业率上升至4.3%，创近4年来新高。 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议。就业数据恶化强化 了市场对美联储降息的预期，分析人士预计美联储或于9月开启新一轮降息。 美国劳工部数据显示，8月，美国失业率较上月上升0.1个百分点至4.3%，创近4年来新高；此外，美国自动数据处理公司4日公布的数据显示，美国8月私营 部门就业人数增加5.4万人，大幅低于市场预期的6.8万人，也显著低于7月修正后的10. ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon has significantly lowered its financial forecasts for fiscal year 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, leading to a sharp decline in its stock price and multiple investment banks adjusting their target prices downward [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, Lululemon reported revenue of $2.525 billion, a year-over-year increase of 6.5%, while net profit decreased by 5% to $371 million [4]. - The company now expects annual net revenue to be between $10.85 billion and $11 billion, down from previous estimates of $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion, and below market expectations of $11.2 billion [3][4]. - Earnings per share are projected to be between $12.77 and $12.97, significantly lower than the analyst expectation of $14.40 [3][4]. Impact of Tariffs - The increase in U.S. import tariffs and the cancellation of the "de minimis" exemption are expected to reduce Lululemon's gross profit by approximately $240 million [4]. - The U.S. government announced on July 30 that it would suspend the tax exemption for imports valued at $800 or less, affecting many of Lululemon's online orders shipped from Canada [4]. Market Conditions - Lululemon's comparable store sales in the Americas fell by 4% in the second quarter, attributed to weak demand in the North American market and increased competition from younger brands like Alo Yoga and Vuori [4][5]. - The overall performance of the athletic apparel market is under pressure, with Lululemon no longer seen as a market challenger but rather as a target for competitors [5]. Broader Industry Context - Other major brands, such as Adidas and Nike, are also facing challenges due to U.S. tariffs, with Adidas reporting significant losses and Nike planning layoffs amid declining revenues [5][6].

Core Points - Japan's manufacturing sector has experienced a significant decline in profits due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with overall regular profits dropping by 11.5% year-on-year for two consecutive quarters [1][4][7] - The non-manufacturing sector, particularly in tourism and services, has shown resilience with a profit increase of 6.6% compared to the previous year [3][4] Manufacturing Sector Impact - The manufacturing sector's regular profits fell sharply, particularly in the transportation machinery sector, which includes the automotive industry, with a decline of 29.7% [4][7] - Other affected industries include steel, which saw a profit drop of 48.2%, and metal products, which experienced a 36.6% decrease [4][7] - The overall regular profit for the manufacturing sector was recorded at 35.8338 trillion yen, marking a historical high for the quarter, but the decline in specific sectors overshadowed this achievement [3][4] Tariff Effects - U.S. tariffs imposed on imported automobiles and key components have significantly impacted Japanese exports, with tariffs on passenger cars rising from 2.5% to 27.5% [7][9] - The steel industry faced additional challenges as U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum products increased from 25% to 50%, leading to losses in the Japanese steel sector [7][8] - In July, Japan's exports to the U.S. fell by 10.1% year-on-year, with automotive exports specifically declining by 28.4% [8][9] Company-Specific Impacts - Major Japanese automakers reported substantial profit losses due to U.S. tariffs, with Honda's net profit plummeting by 50.2% in the latest quarter [11] - Toyota estimated a loss of 450 billion yen in operating profit due to tariffs, with an expected total loss of 1.4 trillion yen for the fiscal year [11] - Other automakers, including Mazda, Nissan, Subaru, and Mitsubishi, also reported significant losses, prompting them to revise their profit forecasts downward [11]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple major German economic research institutions have released autumn forecast reports indicating that Germany's economic growth will only be 0.1% to 0.2% in 2025, which is lower than the summer forecast due to factors such as U.S. tariff policies [1] Economic Performance - The German economy remains sluggish, characterized by insufficient demand in manufacturing and services, ongoing weakness in the construction sector, and a slow recovery in personal consumption [1] Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - The ongoing U.S. tariff policies continue to impact German exports significantly, exacerbating the downward pressure on the German economy [1] - Although the EU and the U.S. have reached a new agreement regarding tariff disputes, the vague content of the agreement and the largely unchanged tax rates mean that the adverse effects on the German economy are unlikely to be alleviated [1]

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil is considering selling its chemical plants in Europe due to multiple pressures including U.S. tariff policies, increased competition from low-cost imports in Asia, and the lingering effects of the 2022 energy crisis on the European chemical industry [1] Group 1: Company Actions - ExxonMobil has engaged in preliminary discussions with advisors regarding the potential sale of its chemical assets in Scotland and Belgium, with a possible transaction value of up to $1 billion [1] - The company has also considered the option of directly closing these plants, although it retains the choice to keep the assets [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The European chemical industry is facing new challenges such as disrupted global supply chains due to U.S. tariffs, delayed orders, and intensified market competition from low-cost Asian imports, which threaten the industry's recovery [1] - Other chemical giants, including LyondellBasell and Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, are also downsizing their European operations, indicating a broader trend in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core issue of the US-Japan trade agreement revolves around a 15% tariff, with Japan interpreting it as an increase for products currently under 15%, while the US views it as applicable to all products [3] - Japan has committed to invest $550 billion, with 90% of the profits going to the US, but there is a disagreement over the control of this investment, as Japan wants to maintain autonomy while the US demands full access to both principal and profits [3] - The cancellation of the planned visit by Japan's economic minister indicates significant divisions between the US and Japan regarding the tariff negotiations [4] Group 2 - The ongoing pressure from the US on Japan and the EU suggests a potential shift in strategy, as both regions begin to resist excessive demands, although the effectiveness of this resistance remains uncertain [5] - The situation highlights a missed opportunity for Japan and the EU to unite against US tariffs alongside China, which has successfully leveraged its rare earth supply to gain leverage over the US [5]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the stock market due to the release of major employment reports, including Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and private-sector payrolls from ADP [1][2] - Weekly Jobless Claims have shown consistency, currently around 230K, with longer-term claims remaining above 1.94 million for 12 consecutive weeks [3] - The Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to show modest job growth of +75K new jobs, which is similar to the previous month's report [4][5] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in response to lower job numbers, indicating that even a surprise increase in job growth would not alter their plans [6] - The S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports for August are anticipated, with S&P expected to remain at 53.3 and ISM expected to rise to 48.5% [7] - Pre-market futures are declining, with major indexes falling below levels from five workdays ago, and bond yields have surged, indicating market volatility [8]