Inflation Data - The US July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from the previous value[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous value of 2.9%[1] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3%[1] Component Performance - Food prices showed a month-on-month change from 0.3% to 0%, below the 12-month average of 0.2%[2] - Energy prices decreased significantly, with a month-on-month change from 0.9% to -1.1%[2] - Core services increased by 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the 12-month average of 0.3%[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI announcement, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.29%[3] - Market expectations for a September rate cut rose from approximately 88% to around 96%[3] Future Outlook - The average tariff rate in the US increased from 16.6% to 18.6% as of August 7, the highest level since 1933[4] - Inflation is expected to rise by 1.5-1.8 percentage points due to current tariff policies[4] - Market consensus anticipates a significant rise in inflation starting Q3, with Q4 PCE inflation projected at 3.0% and core PCE at 3.2%[4]

Core Points - The Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, while the EU's GDP increased by 0.3% [1] - Year-on-year, the Eurozone's GDP rose by 1.2%, and the EU's GDP grew by 1.4% [1] - Germany, the largest economy in the EU, saw a GDP increase of 0.2%, while France, Spain, and Italy experienced growth rates of 0.1%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - Ireland's GDP surged by 3.2%, whereas Hungary's GDP contracted by 0.2% [1] - Analysts noted that the latest U.S. tariff policies are impacting global economic development, contributing to uncertainty in the Eurozone [1] - Economic confidence in the Eurozone declined in April, reaching a recent low [1]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. tariffs on domestic retail companies is becoming increasingly evident, with companies like Crocs predicting a decline in revenue due to cautious consumer spending and rising costs associated with tariffs [3][4]. Group 1: Company-Specific Impacts - Crocs anticipates a year-over-year revenue decline in Q3, contrary to analyst expectations of slight growth, attributing this to reduced consumer spending on non-essential items and concerns over price increases [3]. - The company estimates that the new costs from tariffs will reach $40 million in the second half of the year, totaling approximately $90 million for the entire year, equivalent to about 647 million RMB [3]. - Following the announcement, Crocs' stock plummeted nearly 30%, marking its largest single-day drop in 14 years [4]. Group 2: Broader Industry Effects - Nike has indicated that U.S. tariffs will add $1 billion in costs, while GAP expects an increase of $250 million to $300 million [6]. - Deckers, which owns brands like UGG and Hoka, reported a slowdown in U.S. sales growth from approximately 11% to 2.8% and warned of profit margin pressures due to tariff uncertainties [6]. - Deckers' stock fell nearly 20% after the news [7]. Group 3: International Brands - Puma's stock dropped 18.4% on July 25, following a disappointing earnings forecast that projected a "low double-digit percentage" decline in sales and potential operating losses due to U.S. tariffs [9]. - Puma estimates that U.S. tariffs will result in a gross profit loss of about €80 million in FY2025 [9]. - Adidas, despite reporting growth in the first half of the year, anticipates an additional cost of up to €200 million (approximately 157 million RMB) due to tariffs in the remaining part of the year [9]. Group 4: Pricing Strategies - Some companies are absorbing tariff-related costs to maintain market share, while others are considering price increases for U.S. consumers [10]. - Nike announced price hikes for U.S. products in response to tariff impacts, and Adidas also plans to raise prices due to increased costs from tariffs [11]. - Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, indicated that it would adjust prices flexibly in light of tariffs, stating that raising prices is the only option available [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. tariff policy isolates the country from globalization, leading to negative consequences primarily borne by American consumers [1][2] - The U.S. has a limited share in global trade, and if other countries unite, the effectiveness of U.S. protectionist policies will diminish [1] - The immediate consequence of tariffs in the U.S. is an increase in prices, acting as a de facto tax on consumers, with a majority of Americans perceiving tariffs as harmful due to rising living costs [1][2] Group 2 - Tariffs may temporarily protect specific industries like steel and aluminum, but they increase costs across broader supply chains, negatively impacting the overall economy [2] - The Trump administration's tariff policies are unlikely to compel companies to relocate manufacturing to the U.S. due to the current poor state of American manufacturing [2] - The ultimate impact of these policies will depend on the reaction of the American public, particularly in the context of upcoming midterm elections, which will serve as a significant test for the Trump administration [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented tariffs on several trade partners, leading to a downward revision of Japan's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from earlier estimates [1] - Japanese automotive companies, including Toyota, are facing significant profit reductions, with a projected combined operating profit decline of approximately 2.67 trillion yen (about 130.2 billion RMB) for the 2025 fiscal year [2] - Subaru anticipates a 52.7% decrease in net profit for the 2025 fiscal year, projecting a drop to 160 billion yen (approximately 7.8 billion RMB) [2] Group 2 - Japanese electronic component manufacturers reported a 24% decrease in net profit, totaling 183.9 billion yen (around 8.9 billion RMB) for the April to June 2025 period [2] - The uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies is causing Japanese companies to reduce export expectations and investment, contributing to a cautious outlook on growth [3] - The Japanese government is seeking to expand exports, including efforts to restore imports of Japanese agricultural products by South Korea [4] Group 3 - Japan's central and local government fiscal deficit for 2025 is estimated at 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 156 billion RMB), which is an improvement from the previous estimate of 4.5 trillion yen [3] - Toyota is advancing technological innovation with the upcoming launch of "Woven City," aimed at testing autonomous driving technologies and fostering collaboration with other industries [4] - The Japanese government is facing internal policy debates on how to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs, control inflation, and manage interest rate adjustments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The unpredictable tariff and trade policies of the United States are disrupting global markets and impacting domestic companies, particularly those reliant on imported materials and equipment [1] Group 1: Company Impact - Emerald Packaging, a California-based company specializing in agricultural product packaging, is facing production crises due to high tariffs on imported raw materials and equipment [1] - The company has been forced to pause hiring and increase product prices as a direct result of these trade policies [1] Group 2: Industry Implications - The reliance on imports from countries such as India, Brazil, Mexico, and Germany is creating vulnerabilities for U.S. companies in the packaging industry [1] - The situation highlights the broader challenges faced by industries dependent on global supply chains amid changing trade regulations [1]

中新社北京8月8日电 题：二季度多国GDP公布 专家提醒经济增长背后挑战 作者 刘亮 李宫羽 近期，世界主要经济体二季度经济"成绩单"陆续出炉。总体看，在美国关税政策压力下，各国经济受到 的贸易冲击程度不同，经济未能实现"齐步走"。展望后期，受访专家提醒，要警惕美国关税政策后续给 世界经济增长带来的挑战。 各国经济增长未能实现"齐步走" 今年上半年，中国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长5.3%，其中二季度同比增长5.2%、环比增长1.1%。这一 表现优于市场预期，主要得益于出口超预期、贸易结构优化及宏观政策持续显效等多方面因素共同支 撑。 美国二季度GDP环比按年率计算增长3%，扭转了一季度经济环比萎缩0.5%的局面。这主要受美国进口 大幅下降和个人消费支出增加影响，反映了在美国关税政策预期影响下，企业在一季度就提前大量进 口"囤货"以规避成本上升风险，导致二季度美国进口大幅下降。 欧元区经济二季度环比增长0.1%，创下2024年年初以来最低季度环比增幅。受美国关税措施影响，德 国、意大利等欧洲主要经济体出口在二季度受挫，拉低欧元区整体经济增速。其中，德国和意大利二季 度经济环比均萎缩0.1%。 受益于本国消费 ...

Economic Performance Overview - Major economies have shown varied performance in Q2, with the U.S. tariff policy impacting trade differently across countries [1][4] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in H1, with Q2 growth at 5.2% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong exports and macroeconomic policies [2] - The U.S. GDP increased by 3% on an annualized basis in Q2, recovering from a 0.5% contraction in Q1, influenced by a significant drop in imports and increased consumer spending [2] - The Eurozone's economy grew by only 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, the lowest since early 2024, with Germany and Italy experiencing a 0.1% contraction [2] Regional Economic Insights - South Korea's economy rebounded with a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2, supported by increased exports and domestic demand [3] - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.52% year-on-year in H1, with Q2 growth at 7.96%, attributed to accelerated procurement by foreign buyers ahead of potential U.S. tariffs [3] Tariff Policy Implications - Experts warn of the structural changes in supply and demand relationships due to U.S. tariff policies, predicting significant pressure on global economic growth in Q4 and 2024 [4] - Short-term behaviors, such as companies stockpiling goods to avoid tariff impacts, may lead to trade cycle disruptions, which are not sustainable for long-term growth [4] Global Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised global economic growth forecasts for the next two years to 3% and 3.1%, influenced by factors such as preemptive stockpiling by importers and improved financial conditions [5] - Despite the positive adjustments, the IMF cautions that global economic activities remain distorted due to heightened tariff expectations and geopolitical tensions [5] Cooperation and Trade Framework - The IMF emphasizes the importance of pragmatic cooperation among economies to reduce trade barriers, suggesting that a predictable trade framework could enhance global economic growth [6]

Group 1 - Copper prices have experienced two waves of fluctuations since the end of June, with a peak of 80,990 yuan/ton and a low of 77,700 yuan/ton by mid-July, influenced by LME copper inventory pressures and policy announcements from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including non-ferrous metals, which has positively impacted copper prices, indicating potential for further price increases if detailed policies are released [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold three meetings in the second half of the year, with macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. tariff policies, likely to influence copper price expectations [1] Group 2 - CSPT decided not to set a reference standard for copper concentrate processing fees for Q3 2025 due to unsustainable market conditions, while new copper mines are expected to contribute to supply in the second half of the year [2] - The construction of container berths at Ningbo Daxie Port may affect the speed of imported scrap copper arrivals, although an increase in anode plate production is anticipated due to higher procurement by refineries [2] - LME copper inventory has accumulated again, alleviating market concerns, while domestic smelting plants are expected to face a maintenance peak from September to November [2] Group 3 - The U.S. copper tariff policy has led to increased volatility in U.S. copper prices without significantly altering global copper inventory structures [3] - The cable industry is currently in a seasonal downturn, with no signs of accelerated production in the copper tube sector, while the automotive market is experiencing a consumption peak [3] - The financial attributes of copper prices are expected to enhance, leading to a return to a fluctuating market pattern [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has improved, with over 3,300 stocks rising, driven by capital inflow and increased trading volume, leading to a positive performance across major indices [1][2]. Industry Performance - **Top Performing Sectors**: - Defense and Military Industry: Increased by 3.07% due to expectations of order releases following supportive policies from financial institutions [2][3]. - Machinery Equipment: Rose by 1.98% as global mining capital expenditure trends upward and equipment export orders increase [3]. - Coal: Increased by 1.89% with strong futures prices and expectations of supply contraction due to new safety regulations [3]. - **Underperforming Sectors**: - Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology: Decreased by 0.65% due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies and upcoming price negotiations [3]. - Retail: Fell by 0.23% as uncertainties in import costs and a decline in retail sales growth dampen sentiment [3]. - Construction Materials: Decreased by 0.23% as cement prices drop and demand remains weak [3]. Market Focus - The defense and military, machinery equipment, and coal sectors are leading the market due to favorable policies and improving economic conditions, while pharmaceuticals, retail, and construction materials are facing headwinds from regulatory and demand concerns [4]. Future Outlook - The market is currently in a period of intensive earnings disclosures, and the certainty of corporate performance will significantly influence capital allocation decisions moving forward [4].