Group 1: Macroeconomic Background of Fed's Rate Cut - The U.S. economy is slowing down, with a real GDP growth of 2.1% in the first half of the year, below the expected growth of nearly 3% for 2023-2024 and the 2015-2019 average of 2.6%[2] - Employment demand and supply are both weak, with an average of only 27,000 new non-farm jobs added monthly from May to August, and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[2] - Inflation is showing a mixed structure, with stable but high headline inflation, and commodity inflation rising offset by a decline in service inflation[2] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends and Supply-Demand Characteristics - The term premium for U.S. Treasuries has significantly increased, reflecting investor caution towards long-term risks, with 20-year and above Treasuries at historically high premium levels[2] - The supply-demand structure for Treasuries is changing, with the Treasury increasing short-term debt issuance while maintaining stable overall financing[2] - As of September, T-Bills accounted for 21.5% of the total outstanding marketable debt, indicating a shift in financing strategy[2] Group 3: Historical Experience of Rate Cuts and Future Outlook - Historically, in the seven rate cut cycles from 1982 to 2019, the 10-year Treasury yield typically declines before the first cut due to "expectation pricing," but may rebound in the following months[2] - The Fed is expected to be cautious in its rate cut approach, with only one cut likely in October or December this year, and 2-3 cuts anticipated next year, leading to a policy rate around 3% by the end of 2026[2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to fluctuate between 3.9% and 4.3% in the next 1-3 months, and potentially drop to 3.5%-4% in the 3-6 month outlook[2]

Core Points - President Trump is expected to announce a successor to current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the end of the year [1][3] - The range of candidates has been narrowed down to five individuals [3][4] Candidate Summary - The five candidates include Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, and Rick Rieder [3][4] - Waller and Hassett are seen as frontrunners, with both having close ties to Trump [6] - Hassett's close relationship with Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve if he is appointed [6] - Waller has previously criticized the Fed's policies, which aligns with Trump's views [6][7] - Bowman and Rieder are also considered viable candidates, with Bowman opposing many Biden-era regulations and Rieder bringing a fresh perspective from Wall Street [7] Monetary Policy Context - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates, which has influenced the urgency of selecting a new chair [9] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points soon, with the current inflation rate around 3% [10] - The announcement of a new chair typically occurs in the last quarter of the current chair's term to avoid market uncertainty [10]

避险情绪回落 贵金属开启回调 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询资格证号：Z0021675 目录 第一章 综合分析及交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 贵金属基本面数据追踪 13 文 字 色 基 础 色 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 避险情绪回落 贵金属开启回调 ◼【综合分析】 风险事件：上周，近期集中爆发的多个市场风险事件发生了一些边际变化，令贵金属从高位回落。这些变化包括中美之间的贸易关系趋于缓和 ，特朗普称将和习主席见面、并在26年初访问中国；另外，俄乌冲突一度出现泽连斯基称乌克兰已准备好结束俄乌冲突。与特朗普举行会谈 期间，双方同意尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判。由于领土问题一直是俄乌谈判间的核心矛盾之一，所以"尝试以当前前线为基础进行谈判" 意味着针对长达三年半的俄乌冲突问题乌克兰方面做出了一定妥协，因此在消息传出的当天晚上，贵金属出现了罕 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its independence, particularly in the context of U.S. monetary policy and economic conditions. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Challenges to Fed Independence** The Fed's independence is facing significant challenges, particularly from the Trump administration, which is attempting to influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) by appointing representatives aligned with its views [2][8][11] 2. **Impact of New Appointee** The appointment of Stephen Milan, who supports aggressive rate cuts, contrasts sharply with the majority of FOMC members, potentially affecting the decision-making process within the Fed [1][2] 3. **Pressure from Trump** Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to implement substantial rate cuts, claiming that a reduction of 200-300 basis points could save the government $800 billion in interest payments [2][6][8] 4. **Internal Unity Among Fed Members** Despite external pressures, the presence of Milan has seemingly fostered greater unity among existing FOMC members, as evidenced by their voting behavior [2][5] 5. **Historical Context of Fed Independence** Historical precedents, such as the tenure of Arthur Burns in the 1970s, illustrate that a loss of Fed independence can lead to high inflation and unemployment, with gold prices performing exceptionally well during such periods [3][9][10] 6. **Current Economic Indicators** Recent CPI data has come in below expectations, leading to market speculation that the Fed may cut rates twice more in 2025, which has resulted in a decline in short-term interest rates and a rise in long-term rates [4][5] 7. **Miscalculations in Interest Savings** The claim that a 200 basis point cut would save $800 billion is flawed, as only 20% of U.S. government debt is in short-term bills, and the remaining 80% is in longer-term bonds, which are not directly influenced by the Fed [6][7] 8. **Potential Market Reactions** If the Fed loses its independence, historical patterns suggest that gold prices could continue to rise while the dollar index remains weak, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [12] 9. **Future Economic Risks** The risk of high inflation remains a concern if the Fed adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance under new leadership, which could mirror past economic challenges [11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The dynamics of the current market are similar to those observed during the Burns era, with gold prices potentially reaching new highs despite short-term fluctuations [4][10] - The geopolitical landscape and investor sentiment towards the dollar are also contributing factors to the anticipated performance of gold and the dollar index [12]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under direct challenge, with "external" member Miran representing the White House's aggressive rate cut stance, contrasting sharply with the more moderate internal views[4] - In the short term, the Federal Reserve's independence may not be immediately lost due to the unity among "internal" members, despite external pressures[6] - The experience from the Burns era indicates that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could lead to a weaker dollar and a stronger gold market[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Historical Context - During Burns' tenure, the U.S. economy experienced both high inflation and high unemployment, with an average CPI inflation rate of 6.5% and an average unemployment rate of 6.3%[52] - The Federal Reserve's policy rate was reduced by over 200 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 24 basis points during this period[8] - The S&P 500 index declined by 1.7%, and the dollar index fell by over 20%, while gold prices surged by over 425.6%[50] Group 3: Current Federal Reserve Dynamics - The September 2025 dot plot revealed one member advocating for a policy rate below 3%, suggesting a need for rate cuts exceeding 50 basis points in upcoming meetings[19] - The voting dynamics show a split among members, with 9 members supporting a total of 3 rate cuts this year, while 6 members oppose any further cuts[19] - The recent voting results indicate a temporary unity among internal members, with only Miran dissenting on the extent of the rate cut[22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. long-term government bonds remain vulnerable due to concerns over fiscal deficits and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - There is particular concern regarding the 30-year segment of the yield curve, with fears that long-term bond yields could rise rapidly [1] - It is noted that yields could increase by 25 to 30 basis points within just a few days [1]

前言 在联合国大会的演讲台上，特朗普的宣言掷地有声，随之而来的是白宫对历史性经济成就的密集宣传。 但这番自信表态并未赢得普遍认同，反而引发了一场围绕数据真实性的激烈辩论。美联储用持续高企的 核心指标表达质疑，经济学家们直指其数据魔术，普通民众则用日渐干瘪的钱包给出了最现实的回应。 这场看似胜负已分的通胀之战，实则是数据话术与经济现实的剧烈碰撞。 特朗普政府口中的通胀胜利，根基是一组精心挑选的短期数据。 白宫团队反复强调，2025年1月至8月的物价涨幅经年化处理后仅为2.3%，并将其包装成通胀被彻底压 制的铁证。 这种计算方式的逻辑很简单：把八个月的累计涨幅直接乘以12个月与8个月的比例，得出年度化的通胀 率。 美联储的担忧不止于通胀本身。在最近的议息会议纪要中，官员们明确提及劳动力市场出现裂痕：受关 税政策影响，多个进口依赖型行业的企业为转嫁成本，已开始缩减招聘规模甚至裁员。 美国劳工部的修订数据显示，2024年4月至2025年3月的新增就业岗位比最初统计少了91.1万 个，每月实际新增岗位仅7.1万个，较原数据近乎腰斩。 美联储及高盛、摩根大通等权威机构普遍采用年度同比数据，即当月物价与去年同月对比，作为判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, and the implications for the Fed's independence and future monetary policy direction [1][2][3]. Group A: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - The Trump administration has intensified its pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, demanding immediate interest rate cuts and criticizing Powell's cautious approach [3][4]. - Following unsuccessful verbal attacks on Powell, Trump shifted focus to personnel changes within the Fed, aiming to reshape its leadership by targeting other board members [3][4][5]. Group B: Changes in Federal Reserve Leadership - Trump's intervention began with the unexpected resignation of Fed Governor Kugar, which opened the door for Trump to nominate his ally, Milan, to fill the vacancy [4]. - The subsequent targeting of Fed Governor Cook, including criminal allegations against him, illustrates Trump's strategy to exert control over the Fed's board [4][5]. - Trump's public categorization of Fed board members into "Trump" and "Biden" camps indicates a clear intent to influence the Fed's decision-making structure [5]. Group C: Federal Reserve's Power Structure - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is primarily conducted by the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with the Board being the key decision-making body [7][9]. - The Board consists of seven governors, and its decisions significantly influence monetary policy, banking regulation, and financial stability [9][10]. - The FOMC, which includes both Board members and regional Fed presidents, has the authority to set interest rates and conduct open market operations [8][9]. Group D: Potential Policy Changes - If Trump successfully controls the Fed's board, significant policy shifts could occur, including rapid interest rate cuts and expansion of the Fed's balance sheet to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds [15][16]. - Trump's desire for a 3% interest rate cut reflects a broader strategy to stimulate the economy, with expectations of at least 150 basis points of cuts in the near term [16][17]. - The potential for a more accommodative monetary policy could lead to increased financial market activity but may also raise systemic risks in the long term [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts gold prices will rise to $5,000 per ounce within the next 12 to 18 months due to structural deficits in the U.S., inflationary pressures from de-globalization, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, and ongoing global geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - The average gold price forecast for 2026 has been raised by 18% to $4,329 per ounce [1] - Silver price forecast has been increased by 29% to $54.88 per ounce [1] Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Trends - Investment demand for gold is expected to grow similarly to this year, potentially pushing gold prices to $5,000 per ounce [1] - In September, gold ETF purchases surged by 880% year-on-year to a historical high of $14 billion, with total investments in physical and paper gold nearly doubling, exceeding 5% of global stock and fixed income markets [1] Group 3: Short-term Market Risks - The report cautions that the market may consolidate in the short term, highlighting risks such as the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs, potential hawkish shifts from the Federal Reserve if economic data improves, and the impact of U.S. midterm election results on Trump's economic policy implementation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Western Securities indicates that gold prices are currently in the early stages of the "third wave," and as the cracks in U.S. dollar credit continue to expand, a long-term bull market for gold will commence [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The resumption of interest rate cuts implies a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve, which will continue to be undermined in the future, enhancing the reserve value of gold [1] - The current phase is identified as the early stage of a major upward trend in gold prices, referred to as the third wave [1] - Attention should be paid to the potential pullback risks due to speculative funds taking profits [1] Group 2: Investment Vehicle - The gold ETF (518800) holds underlying assets that are gold spot contracts traded on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (AU99.99), directly corresponding to physical gold stored in the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults [1] - Investing in the gold ETF essentially equates to direct investment in physical gold, as its price fluctuations closely follow the AU9999 spot contract, which reflects domestic gold prices [1] - According to the fund contract, the proportion of physical gold held must not be less than 90% of the fund's assets [1]