炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 ...

专题：专题：价值重估 行稳致远——年终盘点&2026资本市场展望 但斌 东方港湾董事长 付鹏 著名经济学家 洪灝 著名经济学家、莲华资管管理合伙人 李蓓 半夏投资创始人 李迅雷 中泰国际首席经济学家 林园 林园投资董事长 刘煜辉 著名经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛副理事长 2025年12月31日——过去一年，全球经济格局深度调整，中国资本市场在改革与开放中砥砺前行。在此 背景下，那些洞悉趋势、指引方向的声音，始终是市场重要的风向标。新浪财经以专业视角与客观数据 为基础，正式发布"2025资本市场十大声量人物"榜单，记录下那些在过去一年中掷地有声、影响深远的 思想者。 以下为本次上榜人物（按姓名首字母排序）： 田轩 清华大学国家金融研究院院长、五道口金融学院副院长 邢自强 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家 张瑜 华创证券首席经济学家 ■ 评选规则说明 本次评选严格秉承公平、公正、公开的原则，指标体系在往年基础上进一步优化，以更全面、均衡地衡 量影响力的广度与专业深度。具体依据以下三项指标综合评定： 1．微博综合数据（权重35%） ：基于年总发博量、年总有效阅读量、年总曝光量、年总互动人数及年 总互动量等多维度评估。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Suzhou Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) has successfully supported technology innovation enterprises, with a focus on key industries such as information technology, high-end equipment, new materials, new energy, environmental protection, and biomedicine, marking significant growth in the region's innovation capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Suzhou has 58 listed companies on the STAR Market, ranking third nationally, with a total IPO financing amount of 72 billion yuan [2]. - In the first three quarters of the year, Suzhou STAR Market companies achieved a total operating income of 92.1 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, with over 70% of companies reporting revenue growth [3]. - Notable companies include Arctech and Shengke Communication, both with market capitalizations exceeding 50 billion yuan, while several others fall within the 20 to 50 billion yuan range [3]. Group 2: Industry Composition - Among the 58 listed companies, 29 are in the new generation information technology sector, 9 in high-end equipment manufacturing, 8 in biomedicine, 8 in new materials, 3 in new energy, and 1 in environmental protection [2]. - The strong performance of Suzhou companies is reflected in their inclusion in various STAR Market indices, with multiple firms qualifying for the STAR 50, STAR 100, and STAR 200 indices [3]. Group 3: Innovation and R&D - Suzhou's STAR Market companies collectively invested 8 billion yuan in R&D in the first three quarters, representing an average of 18% of their operating income, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [6]. - The region has established a robust ecosystem for innovation, with significant contributions from enterprises, which account for 95% of R&D investment and 90% of invention patents [6][7]. Group 4: Supportive Ecosystem - Suzhou has created a comprehensive nurturing mechanism for technology enterprises, focusing on different stages of enterprise development, from startup to maturity [8]. - The city has implemented various financial support measures, including a technology credit risk compensation fund, which has helped over 24,300 enterprises secure loans exceeding 120 billion yuan [9]. - The establishment of the STAR Market Enterprise Cultivation Center in 2020 has provided local companies with essential guidance for listing, enhancing their understanding of the STAR Market's positioning and review concepts [10].

Core Insights - The capital market in 2025 is expected to see a significant rise in gold prices, with a notable differentiation between technology and dividend assets, as the global capital market landscape is quietly restructured under the "safety first" principle [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The overall trend for gold prices is projected to be upward, indicating a strong investment opportunity in this asset class [1] - There is a growing divide between technology assets and dividend-paying assets, suggesting a shift in investor preferences and market dynamics [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Ordinary investors often misstep due to psychological traps rather than just information lag, highlighting the importance of understanding behavioral finance [1] - The discussion includes common behavioral pitfalls that investors face, which can lead to poor investment decisions [1] Group 3: Future Strategies - The program provides insights into investment strategies for 2026, focusing on asset allocation among stocks, bonds, and gold [1] - A guide for mental discipline in investing is also presented, emphasizing the need for psychological resilience in navigating the market [1]

证券日报网讯12月30日，成都华微在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司股价受资本市场影响正常波 动，敬请投资者理性投资，注意投资风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is actively monitoring the application and development trends of artificial intelligence (AI) in the capital market, aiming to enhance the application level of AI while ensuring compliance and innovation [1][2]. Group 1: AI Application in Capital Markets - The capital market has shown a positive trend in exploring AI applications, characterized by leadership from the securities industry, followed by funds and futures, with top institutions setting examples [1]. - AI applications have covered core areas such as investment research, financing services, investor services, internal control management, information technology, and regulatory supervision [1]. Group 2: Challenges in AI Application - Challenges include non-unified data standards, insufficient high-quality data sources, and issues related to large models, such as "hallucination" [2]. - The supply and cost pressures of computing power restrict the large-scale and in-depth application of AI technology [2]. - Regulatory frameworks tailored to the characteristics of AI technology are still underdeveloped, and there is a need for improved precision and foresight in regulation [2]. Group 3: Future Directions for AI in Capital Markets - The basic work approach for building a healthy AI ecosystem in the capital market includes promoting innovation alongside regulatory compliance, respecting technological evolution, and collaborating across industry and institutional ecosystems [2][3]. - Key initiatives include establishing a differentiated regulatory framework, promoting pilot projects for "AI + capital markets," and building innovation application verification platforms [3]. Group 4: Institutional Ecosystem for AI - Institutions should develop governance structures and strategic plans that align AI applications with their development [3]. - Compliance with national AI ethical guidelines and social norms is essential to ensure that AI applications adhere to laws and regulations [3]. - Enhancing data governance and using authoritative data sources are critical for improving data quality and supporting AI applications [3]. Group 5: Regulatory Compliance and Risk Management - Institutions must ensure content compliance and establish mechanisms for content verification, especially in high-risk application scenarios [4]. - Strengthening data security management is necessary to prevent risks such as data misuse and information leakage [4]. - A collaborative mechanism involving human oversight and model assistance should be established to mitigate the inherent limitations of AI [4].

Core Insights - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time on August 18 [1] - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Northern Securities 50 have reached new highs this year [1] - The capital market is focused on stability and progress, with improved resilience and risk resistance, leading to enhanced investor confidence and expectations [1] Market Developments - Over 90% of newly listed companies are technology firms or have high technological content [1] - As of the end of November, the scale of public funds reached 37.02 trillion yuan, while private funds reached 22.09 trillion yuan, with the scale of existing private securities investment funds at 7.04 trillion yuan, all hitting historical highs [1] - The total annual dividend amount for A-share listed companies has exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record [1]

"十四五"时期，有着"苏大强"之称的江苏，交出了分量十足的资本市场成绩单——截至12月29日，全省 上市公司家数达721家，总市值攀升至8.9万亿元；"十四五"时期，全省新增上市公司257家，其中约九 成是科技企业或科技含量较高的企业。"十四五"时期，江苏上市公司累计完成首发融资2259.71亿元、 再融资3852.79亿元，为企业技术迭代、产能扩张提供了充足资金"弹药"，有力支持了江苏经济发展。 江苏上市公司群体既担负着引领传统行业转型破局的任务，又承载着科技创新和产业创新深度融合的希 望。展望"十五五"，江苏将继续鼓励上市公司不断做优做强，为"经济大省挑大梁"提供坚实支撑。 (详细报道见A5版) 江苏聚焦产业优势，围绕"1650"现代产业体系、"51010"战略性新兴产业集群体系等，支持江苏上市公 司结构优化，"硬科技"成色持续提升。截至目前，科创板、北交所江苏上市公司分别达115家、56家， 数量稳居全国首位。其中，代表半导体行业的通富微电（002156）、代表生物医药行业的迪哲医药，借 助资本市场，在业务规模上都实现了跨越式发展。 近5年来，江苏资本市场新增披露并购重组1057起，完成573起，完成金 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 刘铁斌表示，面向"十五五"，构建规范、健康的资本市场人工智能生态体系的基本工作思路是，坚 持促进创新与规范监管并重，尊重技术演进规律，从行业生态、机构生态和严守监管要求三方面协 同发力，努力构建"合规有序、创新赋能、风险可控"的发展新格局。 一是构建促进人工智能健康发展的行业生态。包括探索建立差异化分类监管框架，依据人工智能应 用的影响和潜在风险，实施分级分类监管；积极推进"人工智能+资本市场"专项试点，尽快形成可 复制推广的实践案例；布局人工智能中试基地，搭建创新应用验证平台，促进算力、数据、模型等 资源集约共享；推动资本市场智能计算基础设施与法律法规、行情、信息披露等重点领域高质量数 据集建设；加强资源要素支持，研究完善激励措施，强化人才队伍建设，鼓励产学研用协同创新。 二是构建规范应用人工智能的机构生态。刘铁斌表示，健全治理架构和战略规划，统筹业务、科 技、合规、风控等各个条线，确保人工智能应用与机构自身发展相匹配。严格遵守国家人工智能伦 理准则与社会公序良俗，确保人工智能应用始终与法律法规、监管规定、伦理规范保 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Global Manufacturing and Export Trends**: The global manufacturing sector is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, which will support China's exports. The U.S. inventory cycle is entering a replenishment phase, and the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates, which will further boost global industrial production and, consequently, Chinese exports [4][24]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact of U.S. Tariffs**: China has gained significant experience in mitigating the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs, leading to a stable export growth despite tariff increases. Future tariff impacts are expected to diminish further [5]. - **Outbound Capacity Strategy**: The current strategy for outbound capacity focuses on "Belt and Road" countries, aiming to find new demand growth points rather than indiscriminate expansion. This approach is expected to enhance brand penetration and positively impact domestic capital goods and intermediate goods exports [6]. - **Real Estate Market Adjustments**: The real estate sector has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with a negative contribution to fixed asset investment. However, the rate of decline is expected to narrow, although falling property prices and deteriorating household balance sheets may suppress consumer spending [7][8]. - **Durable Goods Subsidy Policy**: The effectiveness of the durable goods subsidy policy is likely to weaken, with recent data showing a negative contribution due to high base effects. Long-term demand may be overstretched, leading to diminishing returns from such policies [10]. - **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: The adjustment in the real estate market affects consumer spending through reduced income and wealth effects. Data indicates a decline in residents' willingness to repay loans and an increase in savings, reflecting a drop in consumer confidence [9]. Additional Important Insights - **Fiscal Policy Challenges**: Broad fiscal revenues are under pressure, with local government debt risks increasing. Central government borrowing is seen as a necessary measure to counteract economic downturns and facilitate fiscal reforms [14][18]. - **Future Economic Growth Targets**: The average GDP growth target before 2035 is set at approximately 4.17%. Short-term adjustments to growth targets for 2026 may occur to alleviate growth constraints [2][19]. - **Investment Focus Areas**: Future investments should prioritize industrial investments over physical assets, with a focus on early-stage technology projects. The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy, potentially involving rate cuts [23][24]. - **Service Sector Growth Potential**: There is significant potential for growth in service sectors such as education, healthcare, and elder care, which are expected to become key drivers of domestic demand in the coming years [12][24]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for 2026 indicates a supportive environment for exports and service consumption, with a focus on fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to stimulate economic growth. The emphasis on strategic investments and service sector development will be crucial for sustaining economic momentum in the face of existing challenges.