Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the divergence in the performance of gold and silver ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with gold remaining stable while silver continues its historic upward trend, reaching a peak of $61.60 per ounce [1] - The primary driver for silver's price increase is the reduced opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets due to lower interest rate expectations, coupled with tight supply conditions supporting its price [1] - Silver is experiencing dual support from both investment and industrial demand, while gold appears more cautious as it awaits the outcome of the interest rate decision [1] Group 2 - Investors are advised to be cautious of a potential "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario following the interest rate decision, particularly regarding silver's possible technical correction after significant price increases [2] - UBS analysts note that the surge in silver prices above $60 per ounce has attracted more short-term speculators and trend followers, reflecting the tight physical supply in the silver market [2] - Silver prices have surged 113% this year, driven mainly by increased industrial demand, declining inventories, and its designation as a critical mineral by the U.S. [2] Group 3 - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is characterized by high uncertainty due to the absence of key economic data caused by a government shutdown and notable internal disagreements within the decision-making body [3] - While the market anticipates a nearly certain interest rate cut, there is a possibility that Fed Chair Powell may adopt a "hawkish cut" strategy, signaling a more cautious future policy outlook even while implementing a rate reduction [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 90% probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but concerns about persistent inflation may lead to a more hawkish tone in the FOMC statement and Chairman Powell's press conference [1][3] Economic Data and Rate Cut Expectations - The October JOLTs job openings data showed 7.67 million positions, exceeding expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market [3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is currently at 87.4%, but there are risks of a "hawkish cut" where Powell may emphasize inflation risks, raising the bar for future easing [3][4] Geopolitical Risks and Gold Support - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East issues, continue to provide safe-haven support for gold [3] - Despite short-term fluctuations in risk sentiment, long-term uncertainties are expected to support gold prices [3] Central Bank Gold Demand - Global central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 16 consecutive months [3] - The World Gold Council projects that global central bank gold purchases will remain high through 2026, providing structural support for gold prices [3] Dollar and Gold Price Dynamics - Weak U.S. economic data and rising rate cut expectations are putting pressure on the dollar, which in turn supports gold prices [3] - However, the risk of profit-taking due to rapid short-term price increases in gold should be monitored [3] Federal Reserve Communication and Market Impact - The upcoming policy statement may emphasize "uncertainty" regarding future paths and reiterate "data dependence," which could signal a more cautious approach to rate cuts [4] - Any new language regarding the "magnitude and timing of adjustments" could indicate a more hawkish stance, potentially supporting the dollar and suppressing gold prices [4] Internal Disagreement within the Fed - There may be a "dual divergence" within the Fed, with some members favoring no change and others advocating for larger cuts, reflecting high uncertainty in policy paths [4] - Powell's communication style post-rate cut will be crucial, as any emphasis on inflation risks could reverse current dovish sentiment, leading to a rebound in the dollar and higher bond yields, which would pressure gold and silver prices [4] Technical Analysis of Gold - Current gold prices are around $4199.29 per ounce, with resistance at $4220 and support near $4150 [2][6] - Short-term trading dynamics indicate a potential for upward movement if key resistance levels are broken, but caution is advised due to the risk of a pullback [6]

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 美联储将在北京时间12月11日降息25个基点的概率接近9 0%，市场还预 计，主席鲍威尔更可能采取 "鹰派降息"策略，即宣布降息25个基点，但 通过措辞强调后续降息门槛提高，以平衡内部分歧。鲍威尔将于2026年5 月卸任美联储主席一职，无论继任者是谁，20 26年转向宽松降息已成定 局，分歧在于节奏和幅度 。 市场目前预计美联储降息25个基点的概率接近90%，什么原因？ 美联储将于北京时间 12月11日凌晨公布议息会议结果。芝加哥商品交易所（CME ）FedWatch工具显示，截至12月8日，市场押注美联储12月降息25个基 点的概率接近90%，主要因近期美国就业数据疲软、通胀温和及经济放缓信号增强。 就业表现较为疲软。 受美国政府 "停摆"43天影响，美国一些关键的就业数据没有公布。被市场称为"小非农"的ADP就业报告显示，美国11月ADP就业人 数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，预估为增加5000人，前值为增加4.2万人。 美国 ADP就业数据由美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布，每月公布一次，通常在每月第一个周三发布。 通货膨胀温和。 由于美国政府一度 "停摆" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum, influenced by market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and supply dynamics [1][2]. Group 2 - As of December 10, London copper prices remained stable, slightly below record highs, with a 0.68% increase to $11,565 per ton [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 0.23% decrease in the main copper contract, closing at 91,850 yuan per ton [1]. - Speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options by 4,155 contracts to 62,397 contracts as of the week ending November 4 [1]. Group 3 - Overseas aluminum suppliers have raised their quotes for shipments to Japan in Q1 2024, with premiums of $190-203 per ton over LME spot prices, marking an increase of 121%-136% compared to Q4 2023 [2]. - In LME base metals, three-month aluminum rose by 0.37% to $2,867 per ton, while zinc, lead, nickel, and tin also saw price increases [2]. - In Shanghai, the main aluminum contract fell by 0.25% to 21,935 yuan per ton, while other metals like zinc and nickel also experienced declines [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, amidst high uncertainty due to government shutdown and internal disagreements within the Fed [3] Group 1: Market Overview - The current trading price of silver is $60.92 per ounce, with a daily high of $61.60 and a low of $60.47 [1] - The silver T+D price is 14,377 yuan per kilogram, while paper silver is priced at 13.857 yuan per gram [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The upcoming FOMC meeting is characterized by significant uncertainty, with expectations for a rate cut juxtaposed against potential cautious signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell [3] - President Trump is conducting final interviews for the next Fed Chair, with Kevin Hassett being a leading candidate, despite concerns about his close ties to the President [3] Group 3: Silver Trading Strategy - Silver prices have shown a strong bullish trend, with resistance at $61.50, supported by dynamic support above the EMA50 [4] - A drop below $60.30-$60.20 could attract new buyers, while a breach of the $60.00 psychological level may lead to long positions being liquidated, potentially pushing prices towards the $58.80-$58.85 range [4]

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：山上 美联储将于北京时间周四（12月11日）凌晨03:00公布今年最后一份利率决议。在经历了9月和10月的连 续降息后，市场普遍预期联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将再次降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间 降至3.50%-3.75%。然而，这可能是近年来不确定性最高的一次会议。 由于政府停摆导致关键经济数据缺失，加之决策层内部罕见的分歧，本次会议呈现出复杂的图景：一方 面市场押注降息几乎"板上钉钉"，另一方面美联储主席鲍威尔或将不得不采取"鹰派降息"的策略，即在 降息的同时释放更为谨慎的未来政策信号。 ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月10日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计741845千克，今日仓单较上一 日上涨24057千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报13761元/千克，最高触及14419元/千克，最低触及13735 元/千克，截止收盘报14373元/千克，上涨5.44%。 地区 仓库 期货 增减 上海 中储吴淞 89009 0 外运华东虹桥 91292 0 中工美供应链 411354 12315 合计 591655 12315 广东 深圳威豹 150190 11742 总计 741845 24057 这一数据表明，尽管招聘活动低迷，但劳动力需求依然旺盛，凸显了美国经济的韧性。报告公布后，美 元指数上涨0.1%，收于99.21点，连续两个交易日走强。 这一就业数据并未完全浇灭降息预期。相反，它强化了美联储"鹰派降息"的可能性，即在承认经济强劲 的同时，进行预防性宽松。 【基本面消息】 美国劳工部发布的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）报告成为市场关注的焦点。10月份职位空缺小 幅增加至767万个，远高于经济学家预期的715万个。 ...

金十数据 市场笃定美联储将在周四凌晨降息25个基点，但决策层正面临罕见分歧。流动性与资产负债表问题重回 视野，鲍威尔或为市场带来这一"节日惊喜"！ 美联储将于周四凌晨03：00公布利率决议和经济预期摘要。在经历了9月和10月的连续降息后，市场普 遍预期联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将再次降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至 3.50%-3.75%。 然而，这可能是近年来不确定性最高的一次会议。由于政府停摆导致关键经济数据缺失，加之决策层内 部罕见的分歧，本次会议呈现出复杂的图景：一方面市场押注降息几乎"板上钉钉"，另一方面美联储主 席鲍威尔或将不得不采取"鹰派降息"的策略，即在降息的同时释放更为谨慎的未来政策信号。 "鹰派"共识 尽管此前鲍威尔曾警告12月降息"远非定局"，但近期一系列动向已让市场预期发生决定性转变。CME 的"美联储观察"工具显示，期货交易员认为降息25个基点的概率约为87%。 丹麦银行的分析指出，尽管自10月以来宏观数据缺乏决定性信号，但通胀预期的下降使得即使是鹰派成 员也更能接受再次降息。该行认为，实施一次"鹰派降息"已成为委员会的共识选择。这意味着鲍威尔虽 然会批准降息，但很可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market remains optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with gold prices rising despite strong U.S. employment data, driven by expectations of a rate cut and a surge in silver prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On December 9, gold prices increased by 0.39%, closing at $4206.59 per ounce, while silver prices surged by 4.34%, reaching a milestone of $60.67 per ounce due to supply constraints [2]. - The U.S. job openings report indicated a slight increase to 7.67 million in October, significantly above the expected 7.15 million, highlighting strong labor demand despite a sluggish hiring environment [4]. - Market participants are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with an 88% probability, which is expected to provide further support for gold prices [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Policy Implications - If the Federal Reserve emphasizes economic resilience or persistent inflation during the rate cut announcement, it may lead to a "hawkish rate cut," potentially exerting short-term pressure on gold prices [5]. - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's future policy signals, particularly regarding the 2026 policy trajectory and the pace of global central bank gold purchases, as these factors will influence gold's structural demand [8][9]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks are contributing to gold's appeal, with ongoing tensions in Ukraine and Russia's planned ban on gold bar exports by 2026, which may further support gold prices amid global uncertainties [6]. - The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is increasing due to rising geopolitical tensions, such as border conflicts between countries [6]. Group 4: Oil Market Overview - Oil prices have been under pressure, with WTI crude oil falling by 0.78% to $58.28 per barrel, influenced by the recovery of Iraqi production and significant declines in U.S. crude oil inventories [9][11]. - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a substantial decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.8 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, which may provide short-term support for oil prices [9][11].

基本面： 周三（12月10日）亚市早盘，现货白衣交投于61.15美元/盎司附近。基本面消息市场普遍预期，美联储将于当地时间周三（12月10日）宣布降息25个基点， 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。近期疲弱的劳动力数据似乎压倒了通胀担忧，为降息提供了依据。白银价格表现更为强劲，上周五上涨 2.6%，上周累计上涨4%，盘中一度触及每盎司59.32美元的纪录高点。今年迄今白银价格已飙升98%，主要受到供应短缺及被列入美国关键矿产清单等因素 推动。铂金价格持稳，钯金小幅上涨。，市场对此次降息的定价概率已接近90%。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的声明以及主席鲍威尔随后举行的新闻发 布会，将成为判断2026年政策走向和影响市场情绪的关键。 周二现货白银大涨逾4%，在供应紧张的情况下升破每盎司60美元的里程碑，再度刷新历史高点，这也带动金价上涨，市场普遍预计美联储周三降息，吸引 逢低买盘支撑金价，不过周二出炉的美国职位空缺数据好于市场预期，美元指数延续反弹走势，美债收益率刷新三个月高点，这令黄金多头有所顾忌。 美联储的货币政策始终是黄金市场的重要风向标。此次为期两天的FOMC会议将于12月10日结束， ...