2025年05月21日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：弱势震荡，关注矿端成交情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势格局，逢高布空 | 6 | | 多晶硅：仓单环比增加，关注市场情绪变动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 21 日 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 2）3 月 3 日加拿大安大略省省长福特针对美国关税威胁，提出安大略省的矿产也是关税斗争的关键， 或将停止向美国出口镍。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 商 品 研 究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T- ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China Shaanxi Branch is focusing on five key financial areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance to support the high-quality economic development of Shaanxi Province [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework and Implementation - A comprehensive policy framework has been established, including the issuance of the "Overall Implementation Plan for Financial 'Five Major Articles'" and specific plans for each financial area [2]. - A regular financing docking mechanism has been set up to enhance financial service levels, requiring local branches and financial institutions to create a collaborative list of policies, products, enterprises, issues, and party-building tasks [2]. - Assessment and evaluation mechanisms have been improved, including the issuance of notifications for green finance evaluations and the promotion of successful practices [2]. Group 2: Progress in Financial Areas - In technology finance, a partnership with Xi'an University of Electronic Science and Technology has been formed, resulting in the release of 1,000 projects for technology transformation and 1,000 innovative enterprises [3]. - As of March 2025, the balance of loans to technology enterprises reached 414.603 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.07% [3]. - In green finance, the balance of green loans reached 804.264 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [3]. - Inclusive finance initiatives have led to a balance of loans to private enterprises of 1.22 trillion yuan, growing by 11.15%, and loans to small and micro enterprises of 613.553 billion yuan, increasing by 17.19% [3]. - In pension finance, efforts have been made to enhance financing services for the elderly, with a proposed financing amount of 18.1 million yuan identified through visits to 37 elderly care institutions [3]. Group 3: Future Directions - The People's Bank of China Shaanxi Branch plans to focus on key areas and weaknesses, enhancing financial services for the real economy [4]. - Collaboration with industry authorities will be strengthened to ensure policy coherence and effectiveness [4]. - The bank aims to leverage structural monetary policy tools to guide financial institutions in increasing credit resources and optimizing credit structures [4].

Group 1 - The core idea is the promotion of the "Three Reservoirs + Carbon Reservoir" initiative in Ningde, focusing on transforming forest resources into active assets through innovative green financial services [1][2][3] - The Ningde branch of the People's Bank of China is actively guiding financial institutions to provide tailored financial services for forestry operations, enhancing the utilization of forest resources [1][2] - As of March 2025, local financial institutions have issued loans totaling approximately 2.26 billion yuan to support the construction of pumped storage projects, significantly contributing to local economic development [2] Group 2 - The introduction of the "Lin e Loan" program allows forestry operators to access financing based on non-standard production factors and forestry operation certificates, facilitating easier and more affordable loans [3][4] - A total of 50 forestry operation certificates have been issued, with "Lin e Loan" credit amounting to 32.55 million yuan and a usage balance of 24.78 million yuan [3] - The Ningde branch has collaborated with multiple departments to establish a financial credit construction plan for new agricultural and forestry entities, resulting in credit agreements totaling 339 million yuan [4] Group 3 - The initiative includes the deployment of 170 financial officers to rural areas to enhance financial literacy and support local forestry and agricultural operations [5] - Financial officers have successfully facilitated loans for various agricultural projects, including a 300,000 yuan loan for a kiwi farm to expand production [5] - The "Carbon Sink" financing model has been introduced, allowing for the use of expected carbon credit revenues as collateral for loans, promoting sustainable economic practices [6][7] Group 4 - The "Carbon Sink Loan" program has issued loans totaling 24.32 million yuan, benefiting 79 forestry households and promoting green financial services [7] - The program aims to convert ecological resources into tangible financial benefits for farmers and small enterprises, supporting the development of sustainable agricultural practices [7]

Core Viewpoint - New County has developed a "green capital" model that integrates ecological protection with economic development through an innovative chain of "resource assetization - asset capitalization - capital industrialization" [1][4] Group 1: Ecological Resource Utilization - The establishment of a cooperative by Zhang Si'en in Xihewan Ancient Village allows villagers to invest old houses in tourism projects, resulting in an average daily income of 7,000 to 8,000 yuan during peak seasons [1] - The village now hosts over 60 agritourism and homestay businesses, receiving 500,000 visitors annually and generating over 50 million yuan in total revenue [1] Group 2: Agricultural Innovation - The development of a medicinal herb, Tianma, in Kafang Township has led to a yield of 1,500 kg per acre, netting around 30,000 yuan annually after costs, while creating 320 jobs and increasing income for 60 impoverished households [2] - The successful registration of the geographical indication trademark for "Xincounty Kudzu Powder" has enabled local businesses to secure 1.34 million yuan in credit loans through trademark pledge financing [2] Group 3: Green Finance Development - The first forest carbon sink insurance in Xincounty utilizes satellite remote sensing technology to monitor carbon accumulation, providing compensation based on actual carbon values, thus enhancing risk management for forestry operators [3] - The integration of ecological resource capitalization and sustainable value realization mechanisms has transformed the county's 78.6% forest coverage into tangible economic benefits [3][4]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance its capital market by expanding the financial value chain, including the promotion of RMB internationalization, the establishment of a gold market, and the development of non-ferrous metal storage [1][6] - The government plans to innovate in new financial sectors such as fintech, virtual assets, stablecoins, and green finance, with a legislative framework for stablecoins expected to be proposed soon [1][6] - The strategy includes supporting mainland enterprises in their internationalization efforts, providing a platform and professional services to facilitate their global expansion [1][6][7] Group 2 - Hong Kong's capital market has seen significant growth, with total fundraising exceeding 170 billion HKD in the first four months of the year, a threefold increase compared to the same period last year [3][4] - The banking sector has also shown resilience, with total deposits increasing by approximately 7% last year and an additional 3.5% this year [3][4] - The city is positioned as the largest offshore RMB hub, handling 80% of offshore RMB transactions, with over 1 trillion RMB in accumulated funds [6][7] Group 3 - The government emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and predictable business environment to attract foreign investment, especially amid global uncertainties [3][4] - There is a focus on developing new products and markets, including virtual assets and commodities, to enrich Hong Kong's financial ecosystem [4][6] - The government is also facilitating the establishment of mainland enterprises in Hong Kong, allowing for easier transitions and operations through new policies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Wuhan Weinan Battery Asset Co., Ltd. (Weinan) has successfully navigated financial challenges by innovatively utilizing asset-backed notes (ABN) to secure funding for its electric vehicle battery leasing business, thus enhancing its operational efficiency and sustainability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Weinan is a private enterprise focused on the management of electric vehicle battery assets, which involves purchasing batteries from manufacturers and leasing them to electric vehicle owners [1]. - The company faced significant financial difficulties two years ago due to a mismatch between asset acquisition and funding, requiring substantial upfront investments in batteries [1]. Group 2: Financing Strategy - In April 2022, Weinan issued the first green battery ABN in the interbank market, raising a total of 400 million yuan with a priority issuance interest rate of 3.12% [2]. - The company has since issued three ABNs totaling 1.4 billion yuan, with one of them being the first globally certified climate bond for electric vehicle batteries [2][3]. Group 3: Market Impact - The issuance of ABNs allowed Weinan to convert future rental income from battery leases into immediate cash flow, thus avoiding the need to sell its core assets [3]. - The ABN structure shifted the focus from the company's creditworthiness to the quality of cash flows generated from battery assets, attracting a wider range of investors [8][9]. Group 4: Industry Context - The successful issuance of ABNs aligns with the growing trend of green finance in China, supported by government policies aimed at promoting sustainable development [6][7]. - The total issuance of green debt financing tools in China has exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust market for green financial products [9]. Group 5: Future Prospects - Weinan plans to issue unsecured ABNs in the interbank market, reflecting the company's confidence in its operational performance and debt repayment capabilities [12].

Core Viewpoint - The financial institutions in Foshan are actively promoting green finance, with a significant increase in green loan balances and innovative financial products aimed at supporting low-carbon transitions in traditional industries and fostering new green industries [1][2]. Group 1: Green Loan Growth - As of March 2025, the green loan balance in Foshan reached 246.56 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.5% and a growth of 15.7% since the beginning of the year [1]. - Since 2024, Foshan's financial institutions have processed 1.03 billion yuan in green bill rediscounts, supporting traditional industries like building materials and textiles in their low-carbon transitions [1]. Group 2: Innovative Financial Products - Foshan's financial institutions have diversified their green finance offerings, introducing products such as energy revenue rights pledge loans, photovoltaic loans, green transformation upgrade loans, and carbon reduction-linked loans [2]. - The Bank of Communications Foshan Branch has implemented a sustainable development-linked loan scheme, allowing a ceramic company to reduce its loan interest rate by 10 basis points upon meeting specific carbon emission targets [2]. Group 3: Carbon Reduction Initiatives - Foshan's banks have issued 1.61 billion yuan in loans for emerging green projects, including distributed photovoltaics and clean energy generation, which are expected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 337,000 tons [1]. - The local financial institutions have signed credit agreements totaling 170 million yuan with ceramic industry associations and enterprises to support their green transformation [2]. Group 4: International Green Trade Support - Foshan has initiated a pilot program for mutual recognition of carbon labels between Guangdong and Hong Kong, providing comprehensive financial services for enterprises in carbon footprint accounting and energy-saving technology development [3]. - This initiative has helped local companies enhance their green product attributes and improve international market recognition, breaking down barriers to green trade [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the insurance asset management industry Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased, while the number of registrations continued to decline. The registration scale grew by 9.32% year-on-year to 185.596 billion yuan, primarily due to the growth in asset-backed plans and equity investment plans [7][8] - The report highlights a significant decline in debt investment plans, with both the number and scale dropping sharply. The debt investment plans accounted for 72.94% of the total registrations, but this figure represents a year-on-year decrease of 13.33% [8][11] - The report emphasizes the increasing focus on urban renewal projects and the supportive policies from the government, which may present investment opportunities for insurance asset management firms [7][37] Summary by Sections Product Operation Analysis - In Q1 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased, driven by growth in asset-backed plans and equity investment plans. The number of registrations decreased by 17 to 85 [8] - Debt investment plans saw a significant decline, with a registration scale of 99.775 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 27.19% [11] - The report indicates that the focus of debt investment plans is shifting towards the East China region, with Anhui province leading in investment allocation [13][16] Institutional Operation Analysis - In Q1 2025, Huatai Asset Management led in the registration scale of debt investment plans, while Minsheng Tonghui Asset Management ranked first in the number of asset-backed plan registrations [31][33] - The report notes that the insurance asset management industry is experiencing a head effect, with some institutions demonstrating strong product operation capabilities [44] Industry Policy Review - The report discusses the government's emphasis on urban renewal and the introduction of policies to attract social capital for infrastructure projects, which may benefit insurance asset management firms [37][38] - It highlights the ongoing support for green finance initiatives, encouraging the issuance of green bonds and asset-backed securities [43][44] Observations and Outlook - The report anticipates that the innovative product business in the insurance asset management industry will face challenges in 2025, but it remains a crucial financing tool. The focus will likely shift towards structured product issuance [44][45] - The report suggests that insurance asset management firms should pay attention to urban renewal projects and green finance opportunities as potential areas for investment [44][45]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the insurance asset management industry Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased, while the number of registrations continued to decline. The registration scale grew by 9.32% year-on-year to 185.596 billion yuan, primarily due to the growth in asset-backed plans and equity investment plans [7][8] - The report highlights a significant decline in debt investment plans, with both the number and scale dropping sharply. The focus of investment has shifted towards the East China region, with the transportation sector remaining the largest investment target [9][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and city investment policies, which are expected to create investment opportunities for insurance asset management in urban renewal projects and industry transformation [7][37] - Green finance policies continue to support qualified green industry enterprises in issuing green bonds and asset-backed securities, indicating a growing space for green asset securitization projects [7][43] Summary by Sections Product Operation Analysis - In Q1 2025, the registration scale of innovative products in the insurance asset management industry increased, driven by growth in asset-backed plans and equity plans. The number of registrations decreased, with debt investment plans still accounting for over 70% of the total but on a downward trend [8][29] - The report notes that the debt investment plan registration scale and number have significantly decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 27.19% and 29.55% respectively in Q1 2025 [11][12] - The focus of debt investment plans has shifted towards the East China region, with Anhui province leading in investment share [13][16] Institutional Operation Analysis - In Q1 2025, Huatai Asset maintained a leading position in the registration scale of debt investment plans, while Minsheng Tonghui Asset led in project registration numbers for asset-backed plans [31][33] - The report indicates that the insurance asset management industry is experiencing a head effect, with some institutions showing strong product operation capabilities and capturing a significant market share [44] Industry Policy Review - The report discusses the recent urban renewal and city investment policies aimed at attracting social capital and promoting collaboration between government and private investments [37][38] - It highlights the regulatory support for green finance, encouraging the issuance of green bonds and asset-backed securities, which aligns with the growing focus on sustainable investments [43][44] Observations and Outlook - The report anticipates that the innovative product business in the insurance asset management industry will face pressure in 2025, but it remains a crucial financing tool. The focus will likely be on structured product issuance and green finance opportunities [44][45] - The report suggests that while the supply of innovative products may decrease, they will continue to be an important investment category for insurance funds, particularly in the context of low interest rates and ongoing debt resolution policies [44][45]

Core Insights - The cherry harvest season in Pingyi County, Shandong Province, has resulted in a significant economic boost, with over 5,000 tons produced annually and generating more than 40 million yuan in revenue [1] - The local agricultural bank has played a crucial role in supporting farmers through tailored financial products and services, facilitating a total of 2.71 billion yuan in policy loans this year [2] - The bank's innovative financing solutions have contributed to the growth of the cherry industry and related sectors, with 2.98 billion yuan allocated to new agricultural entities and 4.72 billion yuan supporting industrial clusters [3] Financial Support and Services - Pingyi Agricultural Bank has established a comprehensive support system for farmers, including specialized loans like "Greenhouse Loans" and "Agricultural Machinery Loans," ensuring timely funding for essential agricultural inputs [2] - The bank has implemented a dual-channel service model, combining online and offline services, with 186 customer managers providing on-the-ground support and 367 financial service points established across the county [4] - As of April this year, the bank's total loan balance reached 15.023 billion yuan, with 1.5 billion yuan specifically allocated to the cherry industry [4] Industry Development and Innovation - The bank has introduced innovative financial products such as "Agricultural Insurance Loans" and "Intellectual Property Pledge Loans," fostering the development of 32 demonstration farms [3] - The integration of green finance principles has led to 2.25 billion yuan in loans for ecological agriculture projects, promoting the synergy between green economy and cultural tourism [3] - The cherry industry has become a symbol of rural revitalization, with local farmers experiencing improved livelihoods and economic stability through the support of the agricultural bank [5]