2025年12月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：区间震荡，关注大厂复产实际进展 | 4 | | 工业硅：偏弱运行为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注消息面发酵情况 | 6 | 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 04 日 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,870 | -180 | 610 | 2,220 | -3,080 | ...

本报讯 记者周轩千报道 为加强对绿色低碳产业的跨境融资便利化政策支持，以外汇管理服务推动 做好金融"五篇大文章"，经国家外汇管理局批准，国家外汇管理局上海市分局近日在上海全市开展绿色 外债业务试点。截至2025年11月末，3家"双碳"重点企业率先签约"绿色外债"，融资总额超3亿元人民 币，为分布式新能源、储能中心、循环经济等前沿绿色科技项目建设注入强劲动能，试点政策先发示范 效应凸显。 在首批试点业务中，中国银行上海市分行为上海某智能供应链企业完成1500万美元绿色外债签约登 记，企业所借资金用于建立华东运营总部绿色仓储项目，该项目将提升长三角科创走廊智慧供应链产业 发展水平。企业从申请到办结绿色外债签约登记并实现提款，在一个工作日内全部完成。企业负责人表 示："通过绿色外债通道办理业务效率极高，有效提升了跨境资金调度的灵活性，对于企业绿色制造项 目的顺利实施提供了强有力的资金支持。" 记者了解到，为下好绿色外债业务试点"先手棋"，国家外汇管理局上海市分局前期充分发挥"外汇 局+银行+企业"合力，夯实管理基础，提高宣传质效，并主动对接"双碳"产业融资需求，提前做好绿色 外债项目储备，引导企业用好用足试点政策， ...

广义货币(M_2)和社会融资规模增速均保持在较高水平、信贷结构持续优化、贷款利率保持在低位水 平……今年以来，适度宽松的货币政策持续发力，有力支撑经济回升向好。下一步，货币政策将继续发 力，把握好力度和节奏，保持对实体经济的较强支持力度。 金融支持质效提升 "十五五"规划建议提出，实施更加积极的宏观政策，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。今年以来，适度宽 松的货币政策发力显效。金融总量较快增长，10月末社会融资规模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长 8.5%；前10个月社会融资规模增量累计为30.9万亿元，比上年同期多3.83万亿元。与此同时，货币供应 量保持较快增长，10月末，M_2余额335.13万亿元，同比增长8.2%。10月末，人民币贷款余额270.61万 亿元，同比增长6.5%。 "金融总量合理增长为实体经济提供了有力支撑。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。在适度宽松的货 币政策带动下，社会综合融资成本持续下降，为经营主体纾困解难、注入信心。最新数据显示，10月份 企业新发放贷款(本外币)加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；个人住房新发放贷款(本外 币)加权平均利率为3.1%，比上年同期低约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of supporting the real economy and highlights the efforts of China Merchants Bank's Changsha branch in providing comprehensive financial services to enterprises, particularly in cross-border financing and support for small and micro enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Cross-Border Financing - China Merchants Bank's Changsha branch has established a cross-border comprehensive service system to support enterprises in overseas financing, cross-border settlement, and exchange rate risk management, resulting in a significant increase in cross-border loan balances by November 2025 [1] - The branch successfully arranged a 480 million RMB offshore syndicated loan for a green energy project in Kyrgyzstan, marking a breakthrough for Hunan enterprises in Central Asia [1] - The project exemplifies the bank's commitment to green finance and the Belt and Road Initiative, integrating ESG principles into its development strategy [2] Group 2: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - As of November 2025, the bank's inclusive loan balance reached 15.5 billion RMB, with an annual growth rate of 11.8%, serving nearly 18,800 small and micro enterprises [4] - The bank has implemented innovative financing solutions, such as the "Chain Loan" service, which facilitated 3 million RMB in order financing for a small enterprise within one day, addressing cash flow issues [5] - The introduction of the "Science and Technology Talent Loan" in collaboration with Central South University allows for rapid online approval for innovative enterprises, enhancing the bank's support for technology-driven small businesses [5] Group 3: Digital Transformation - The bank is leading in digital transformation through self-developed technology, with products like "Salary Fortune" enhancing operational efficiency for large enterprises by integrating payment and data security features [8] - The "E-Catering" service has supported 396 enterprises and 307,000 employees in Changsha, demonstrating the bank's commitment to empowering small businesses through digital solutions [9] - A dedicated digital empowerment team of 35 members is focused on providing comprehensive support for enterprises' digital transformation needs [9] Group 4: Commitment to Sustainable Development - The bank's initiatives reflect a deep commitment to sustainable development, integrating green finance into its core operations and promoting the use of cross-border RMB [2] - The bank aims to align its strategies with national economic goals, emphasizing the importance of high-quality economic development and the role of financial services in achieving these objectives [9]

Core Insights - The low-carbon transition has become a central strategy for economic and social development in the context of global efforts to combat climate change and promote sustainability [1] - Financial institutions and enterprises are key players in this transition, creating multi-dimensional cooperation spaces that inject strong momentum into the comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society [1] Group 1: Mechanisms of Low-Carbon Transition and Financial Integration - The strategic collaboration between financial institutions and enterprises transcends traditional financing boundaries, forming new cooperative relationships that encompass full value chain services and risk co-governance [2] - Enterprises are shifting from passive participants to proactive innovators seeking green transformation, driven by a scientific climate rule system and the evolving importance of ESG factors as key financial indicators [2] - The financing accessibility for green low-carbon enterprises has significantly improved, with a trend towards longer credit term structures [2] Group 2: Financial Institutions' Role and Policy Guidance - Financial institutions are responding to national policies by integrating green finance into their strategic core, with a clear directive to increase the proportion of green finance in their business scale by 2027 [2] - The implementation of the "Guidelines for Environmental Information Disclosure by Financial Institutions" requires enhanced environmental risk quantification management capabilities, ensuring that funds are directed towards genuine low-carbon projects [4] Group 3: Corporate Perspective on Low-Carbon Transition - Traditional high-energy-consuming enterprises need substantial capital for technological upgrades and comprehensive operational reforms to reduce carbon emissions and achieve green production [3] - Many small and medium-sized enterprises are increasingly adopting digital and intelligent methods to enhance energy efficiency and develop green products, necessitating significant financial support from banks [3] Group 4: Win-Win Cooperation between Banks and Enterprises - The win-win scenario in low-carbon transition is characterized by risk-sharing and benefit-sharing, where banks conduct strict evaluations of low-carbon projects while establishing long-term partnerships with enterprises [4] - Financial institutions can leverage data management and innovative mechanisms to build risk assurance systems, enhancing their understanding of enterprises' operational conditions and transition progress [4] Group 5: Strategic Synergy and Ecosystem Building - Banks should deepen cooperation with enterprises to understand changes in business models and industry characteristics, providing comprehensive services that combine financing and intelligence [5] - Establishing regular high-level communication mechanisms can help avoid misunderstandings and risks due to information asymmetry, particularly regarding climate policy changes [5] Group 6: Financial Innovation and Industrial Upgrading - Financial institutions can support sustainable development through green credit and ESG investment products, which can lower financing costs and enhance social reputation for enterprises [6] - Selective funding support for low-carbon initiatives promotes industrial structure optimization and economic development, while also addressing financing challenges for enterprises [7] - Supply chain finance exemplifies the cooperation model, where banks provide financing to small and medium-sized enterprises within the supply chain, ensuring stability and efficiency [7] Group 7: Enhancing Corporate Vitality and Innovation Potential - Financial institutions are willing to support enterprises' research and innovation activities, becoming risk-sharing partners that drive technological progress and result transformation [7] - By leveraging their expertise, banks can improve enterprises' financial operations and decision-making processes, ultimately enhancing their competitiveness [7]

"十四五"是波澜壮阔的五年，也是极不平凡的五年，我国经济社会发展取得重大成就，经济实力、科技 实力、综合国力跃上新台阶，中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐。 作为金融租赁"领头羊"和金融央企子公司，五年来，交银金租始终坚守金融工作的政治性与人民性，将 国有金融企业担当深度融入业务实践，不仅主动将自身发展嵌入中国式现代化全局，更以自身创新实践 引领行业转型方向，谋势、谋新、谋实，为金融租赁行业高质量发展蹚新路，也为"十五五"时期继续贡 献金融租赁力量奠定了坚实基础。 聚焦租赁本源 奋力书写金融"五篇大文章" 联动产业资源，做深"绿色金融"大文章。"十四五"期间，交银金租依照《上海市转型金融目录（试 行）》指引，发布全国首单转型金融船舶融资租赁业务，助力转型金融工具与船舶融资租赁深度融合。 在"风光储氢"等领域进行重点布局，持续优化绿色租赁产品体系，迭代"优能租1+N"产品模式，成功落 地全国首单采用SPV架构的户用分布式光伏经营租赁项目、公司首单零碳氢氨租赁业务、超级充电站直 租业务，落地首单中资租赁公司绿色银团贷款、全国首单金融机构ESG自贸区离岸债券（明珠债）等， 另外还通过上海融资租赁流转中心成功开展新能源融资 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing's Shapingba District is enhancing financial services through technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance, significantly improving financial resource allocation efficiency and supporting high-quality regional economic development [1] Group 1: Technology Finance - Shapingba District is leveraging technology finance to support the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector, helping companies overcome financing bottlenecks and creating an innovative industrial ecosystem [2] - Financial institutions are implementing targeted strategies, such as supply chain finance, to provide precise financial support to the automotive industry chain, with approximately 8 billion yuan in financial support provided to related enterprises since October last year [2] Group 2: Green Finance - The district is promoting green finance to support the transition to a low-carbon economy, directing credit resources towards green projects and enhancing trade innovation [3] - Key enterprises, such as Chongqing Pan-European Railway Port Management Company, received over 800 million yuan in financial support, contributing to a projected trade scale exceeding 5 billion yuan for the year [3] Group 3: Inclusive Finance - To alleviate financing difficulties for small and micro enterprises, Shapingba District has established a risk-sharing mechanism among government, banks, and guarantee institutions, resulting in 53.4 million yuan in loans to 28 small enterprises [4] - The district has introduced various financial products aimed at reducing financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises, with inclusive small and micro loans reaching 28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5% [5] Group 4: Future Plans - The district plans to continue enhancing high-quality financial development and services, focusing on technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance to stimulate market vitality and support the implementation of major strategies and key industry developments [6]

Core Insights - Chongqing's Shapingba District is enhancing financial services through technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance, significantly improving financial resource allocation efficiency and supporting high-quality regional economic development [1][7] Group 1: Technology Finance - Shapingba District focuses on integrating technology finance into strategic emerging industries, particularly in the intelligent connected new energy vehicle sector, by innovating supply chain finance models [3] - The local bank has provided approximately 8 billion yuan in financial support to the supply chain of leading enterprise Seres, facilitating the establishment of the city's first "New Energy Vehicle Safety Body and Intelligent Chassis Industry Innovation Complex" [3][4] - The introduction of the "Supply Chain e-Sales" platform by a local bank has enabled comprehensive online financing services for enterprises, enhancing the overall financing process [3] Group 2: Green Finance - Under the dual carbon goals, Shapingba District is accelerating its green finance initiatives, directing credit resources towards green trade and energy-saving equipment [5] - The establishment of five foreign cooperation and investment teams aims to strengthen international trade connections, particularly with Africa, Europe, ASEAN, Central Asia, and the Middle East [5] - A local company received over 800 million yuan in loans to support its import and export activities, with the district's trade scale expected to exceed 5 billion yuan for the year [5] Group 3: Inclusive Finance - To address the financing challenges faced by small and micro enterprises, Shapingba District has established a risk-sharing mechanism involving local government, banks, and guarantee institutions [6] - This mechanism has facilitated the issuance of 53.4 million yuan in loans to 28 small enterprises, significantly easing their financial burdens [6] - The district has also attracted fintech companies to create digital financial applications, enhancing service accessibility and risk control efficiency [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The local government plans to continue advancing high-quality financial development and service capabilities, focusing on aligning financial services with national strategies and regional key industries [7] - Shapingba is transitioning from a "financial resource aggregation area" to a "financial value creation hub" driven by technological innovation, green transformation, and inclusive growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Green Finance Ecological Conference in Chongqing highlighted the city's strategic position as a "best testing ground" for green finance, leveraging its ecological significance and industrial transformation needs to promote ecological protection and industrial transition [3][12]. Group 1: Green Finance Strategies - The strategy of "疏堵结合，精准赋能" (combining restriction and precision empowerment) was proposed to address the high proportion of heavy industry in Chongqing, focusing on limiting investments in high-pollution and high-energy consumption projects while providing comprehensive support for transitioning enterprises [3][14]. - The introduction of products like the CGT-ESG bond portfolio aims to guide funds towards low-carbon and environmentally friendly sectors, facilitating the green transformation of industrial enterprises [3][14]. Group 2: Biodiversity Finance - Biodiversity finance is identified as a frontier area, emphasizing the importance of quantifying ecological value and designing financial products that attract social capital, transforming biodiversity protection from a purely philanthropic effort into a source of stable returns [4][15]. - The goal is to create "green assets" that generate cash flow and returns, thereby encouraging broader market participation in biodiversity protection [4][15]. Group 3: Collaborative Development - China Galaxy Securities plans to focus on three strategic areas to support Chongqing's development model of "capital, ecology, and industry": enhancing full-chain services, leveraging technology for precision service, and promoting regional collaboration for carbon reduction and ecological protection [5][13]. - The integration of industrial transformation and biodiversity protection is seen as a way to achieve synergistic effects, with innovative financial tools like "green transition bonds" and "ecological credit loans" being explored to support this dual empowerment [8][16].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong's green finance has rapidly developed, becoming a crucial force in supporting the "dual carbon" goals and the green transformation of the economy, with China Construction Bank's Guangdong branch playing a significant role in this transformation [1][5]. Group 1: Empowering Green Manufacturing - Guangdong's industrial green transformation is vital, with companies like Guanxu Electronics leading the way in producing zero-carbon headphones certified by Sullivan and Beijing Saixi, showcasing technological advantages [1]. - The Construction Bank's Zhaoqing branch quickly formed a service team to address financing needs, providing preferential loans that helped companies meet production demands and enhance growth [2]. Group 2: Supporting Green Infrastructure - Green upgrades in infrastructure are essential for sustainable regional development, exemplified by the Zhuhai Hengqin energy company's project that utilizes waste heat from natural gas power generation for cooling, significantly improving energy efficiency [3]. - The Construction Bank's Zhuhai branch provided 1.8 billion yuan in comprehensive credit to support the energy project, contributing to the development of a low-carbon, efficient "Smart Hengqin" [3]. Group 3: Innovative Green Financing - The Construction Bank's Guangdong branch is expanding financing channels and supporting green transformation through diverse financial tools, including digital RMB green bonds and twin green bonds [4]. - The bank played a leading role in the issuance of the first "green + digital RMB" dual-attribute bond, enhancing the application of digital RMB in green finance [4]. Group 4: Achievements in Green Finance - As of September, the Construction Bank's green loan balance reached 509.7 billion yuan, with an increase of 72.3 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, and green loans now account for 21.6% of total loans [5]. - The bank's systematic strategic layout and effective measures have led to recognition as an excellent performer in green finance services in Guangdong [5][6]. Group 5: Commitment to Green Development - The Construction Bank is integrating green concepts into its operations, establishing green branches and innovation centers, and evolving from a "financial supporter" to a "green practitioner" [6]. - The bank aims to continue enhancing financial service innovation and expanding green investment channels to support the comprehensive green transformation of Guangdong's economy and society [6].