不确定性
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为什么每个人需要再学一次塔勒布
点拾投资· 2025-06-23 05:30
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of compound interest and the need for investors to understand both the benefits of compounding and the inherent uncertainties in the market. It highlights the concept of "antifragility" as proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, suggesting that investors should prepare for low-probability, high-impact events while leveraging the power of compounding to achieve long-term success [4][10]. Summary by Sections Compound Interest and Its Power - Albert Einstein referred to compound interest as the "eighth wonder of the world," exemplified by Warren Buffett's journey of turning $5,000 into $155.9 billion over 68 years [1]. - The article recounts a story by Peter Lynch about Native Americans selling Manhattan for $24 in 1626, illustrating that if they had invested that amount at an annual return of 8%, it could have grown to $30 trillion after 362 years [2]. Investment Philosophy and Uncertainty - Jack Schwager, author of "Market Wizards," emphasizes the importance of staying in the game, as one mistake can end an investor's journey [3]. - The first layer of value investing is understanding the effect of compounding, while the second layer involves recognizing the fragility of the world and preparing for unexpected events [4][5]. Taleb's Antifragility Concept - Taleb's ideas on antifragility and the nature of uncertainty are increasingly relevant in today's volatile environment, where unexpected events can disrupt linear progress [8][10]. - The article discusses the need for investors to "buy insurance" against low-probability events that could have catastrophic consequences, aligning with Taleb's philosophy [8][14]. Wealth Management Strategies - The article highlights the importance of diversification in wealth management, suggesting that it should be done in an "antifragile" manner to withstand market volatility [14]. - It draws parallels between investment strategies and life management, emphasizing the need for a robust approach to health, career, and overall well-being as one ages [16].
印度央行委员巴塔查里亚:持续高企的不确定性仍然是在货币政策宽松节奏上保持谨慎的主要原因。
news flash· 2025-06-20 11:37
印度央行委员巴塔查里亚:持续高企的不确定性仍然是在货币政策宽松节奏上保持谨慎的主要原因。 ...
日本央行行长植田和男:只要相关谈判持续,不确定性就会持续存在。减缓削债步伐可能会放缓市场功能的改善。正在就债券购买问题与政府保持密切沟通。
news flash· 2025-06-17 07:12
Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that uncertainty will persist as long as relevant negotiations continue [1] Group 1 - The potential slowdown in the pace of debt reduction may hinder the improvement of market functions [1] - The Bank of Japan is maintaining close communication with the government regarding bond purchase issues [1]
日本央行行长植田和男:如果关税谈判被推迟,我们对不确定性的看法也将继续存在。
news flash· 2025-06-17 07:09
日本央行行长植田和男:如果关税谈判被推迟,我们对不确定性的看法也将继续存在。 ...
FT中文网精选:失序年代:“特朗普2.0”为当代人种下了怎样的因果?
日经中文网· 2025-06-16 03:46
Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing protests in Los Angeles, highlighting the chaos and disorder under "Trump 2.0," contrasting it with the previous era of uncertainty [3][4]. - It notes that within just six months of "Trump 2.0," various conflicts have emerged, including tensions with Ukraine, international trade, China, Harvard, and California, indicating a significant shift in the political landscape [4]. - The term "disorder" is emphasized as a defining characteristic of the current political climate, suggesting that events are increasingly unpredictable and detached from established norms [4].
欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫:在当前所有不确定性之中,我们只需保持审慎和谨慎。
news flash· 2025-06-11 11:33
欧洲央行管委马赫鲁夫:在当前所有不确定性之中,我们只需保持审慎和谨慎。 ...
巴西财政部副部长Galipolo:谨慎意味着全球和巴西国内的不确定性都很高。
news flash· 2025-06-07 14:34
巴西财政部副部长Galipolo:谨慎意味着全球和巴西国内的不确定性都很高。 ...