Group 1 - The article discusses how geopolitical uncertainty and tariff policies have led to increased defensive investments by governments and companies, unexpectedly supporting the stock market [2][3] - The European Union has allowed member states to increase defense spending, with Germany planning to raise military expenditure to over 1% of GDP and invest an additional €500 billion (approximately $588 billion) in infrastructure [2] - The Stoxx Aerospace and Defense Index surged 54% in the first half of the year, marking a historic performance with a 74% increase in USD terms [2] Group 2 - There are three potential scenarios regarding the impact of geopolitical and tariff uncertainties on the economy: 1. The market may have already priced in the uncertainties, with a belief that Trump will not reimpose severe tariffs [3] 2. The uncertainties may primarily affect the value of the dollar, as foreign investors show decreased interest in U.S. assets, leading to the worst dollar performance since the Nixon administration [5] 3. The uncertainties could eventually harm the economy as CEOs delay critical decisions, which may suppress corporate investment [6][8] Group 3 - The article highlights a divide between bullish and bearish perspectives, with bulls focusing on current economic conditions and strong corporate investments, while bears emphasize the potential negative impacts of uncertainty on consumer and business sentiment [8] - Concerns are raised about inflationary pressures and growth slowdowns due to tariffs, with some analysts suggesting that now may be an appropriate time to cash out given the high valuations in the stock market [8]

有色金属周报(精炼锡) 特朗普政府对各国加征关税仍存不确定性， 江西及国内精炼锡产能开工率连续回升 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年07月07日 宏源期货 研究所 王文虎 （F03087656，Z0019472） 精炼锡 供给端：缅甸佤邦曼相矿山4月底正式复产后因采矿许可证审批严格和实际获批产能缩减及出口税由现 金税改为实物税致实际产能爬坡缓慢（初期增量不超1万金属吨且需2-3个月传导期），Alphamin Resources于4月9日宣布全球第三大刚果金北基伍省Bisie锡矿分阶段复产（24和25年生产量为1.73与2万吨） 且电力系统修复需3个月以上；中国再生锡7月生产量环比增加；江西及中国（云南）精炼锡产能开工率较 上周升高（持平）；中国精炼锡7月生产（库存）量环比增加（减少）。 需求端：中国锡焊料7月产能开工率（库存量）环比升高（增加），中国焊带7月进口（出口）量或环 比增加（增加），中国镀锡板7月生产量（进口量、出口量）或环比增加（减少、减少）。 投资策略：美国财政赤字扩张与美联储仍存降息预期，中美互征关税缓和与传统消费淡季交织，但是 缅甸佤邦和刚果金锡矿复产预期，国内精炼锡运行产能 ...

有色金属周报(锌) 高锌价抑制消费，沪锌社库累库预期缓慢兑现 2025年7月7日 宏源期货研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美国"大而美"法案通过，6月小非农数据不及预 | | | | | 期，但非农就业数据远超预期，降息预期后移，此外，美 | | | | | 国关税90天缓冲期即将到期，关税不确定性增加。 | | | |  | 原料端：维持趋松预期。炼厂采购仍以国产矿为主，截至 | | | | | 上周，国产锌精矿加工费3,800元/金属吨，进口锌精矿加 | 宏观方面关税不确定性提升，基 | | | | 工费指数环比上涨至66.25美元/干吨，近期港口部分锌矿 | 本面维持供增需弱格局，上周因 | | | | 报价涨至4000元/吨以上，但冶炼厂看涨后续进口加工费， | 锌价高位整理，下游采买减弱， | | | | 接货积极性不高，此外，近期国内西南某矿山7月锌矿招 | 社会库存略有累积，但从整个产 | | | | 标价格为377 ...

一、背景：开源 Web Agent 在艰难任务中的困境与突破 在信息爆炸的时代，传统搜索引擎难以满足用户对深层次、多步骤信息获取的需求。从医学研究到科技创新，从商业决策到学术探索，许多 复杂问题的解决都需要深入的信息挖掘和多步推理。然而，人类在有限时间和精力下很难手工完成如此繁琐的检索与推理过程，这可以说触 及了人类认知的极限。为此，研究者们希望打造能够自主思考、自主决策的智能体，帮助我们应对这些复杂的信息检索任务。 当前开源 Web Agent 在极端复杂任务上表现不佳。OpenAI 提出的 DeepResearch 等闭源系统已经在极复杂的信息检索基准上展示了超越人类 的能力，如在 BrowseComp 任务上取得了 "超人类" 水平的成绩。相形之下，开源模型在这些任务上几乎束手无策：例如在 BrowseComp-en 这样的复杂基准上，已有开源 LLM 与 Web Agent 的准确率几乎为零。这意味着现有训练范式尚未赋予开源模型应对极高不确定性任务所需 的推理模式。简言之，开源智能体一直受困于无法有效降低极端不确定性。 BrowseComp 有多难？下面是一个例子： 有一部 HBO 剧集在 2018 ...

WebSailor团队 投稿 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 在互联网信息检索任务中，即使是很强的LLM，有时也会陷入"信息迷雾"之中：当问题简单、路径明确时，模型往往能利用记忆或一两次搜索 就找到答案；但面对高度不确定、线索模糊的问题，模型就很难做对。 举个例子，我们平常问一个直白的问题（比如"某城市的人口是多少"），搜索引擎一查即可。 但如果问题被设计得非常复杂，比如"这首与南美某首都密切相关的乐曲，其歌词作者在21世纪初获颁当地荣誉称号，其旋律创作者曾就读于 哥伦比亚西部的一所著名艺术学院。这首乐曲叫什么？"，人类和AI都很难直接找到入口。 这类问题需要阅读许多网页、抽丝剥茧地拼凑线索，逐步把迷雾拨开，才能找到答案。这超出了人类有限记忆和注意力的负荷，也远远超出了 普通开源模型的能力范围。 有没有办法让开源的大模型也掌握这种拨云见日的本领？ 阿里巴巴通义实验室最新提出的方案WebSailor通过一整套创新的post-training方法，大幅提升了开源模型在复杂网页推理任务上的表现。 此前开源的Agent在类似BrowseComp这样复杂的、超越人类能力边界的基准上几乎为零，WebSailor成为首个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the decline in futures prices for synthetic rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, alongside a drop in Japanese rubber futures, driven by slowing automobile sales and uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies [1] Group 2 - The synthetic rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are leading the decline in the futures market [1] - Japanese rubber futures are also experiencing a downturn [1] - The future direction of the rubber market is uncertain due to the combination of slowing automobile sales and the impact of U.S. trade policy uncertainties [1]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is causing significant turmoil in global markets, with mixed signals from the Trump administration leading to confusion about the effective dates of tariffs [1][13]. Market Reactions - Asian stock markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 and Thailand's SET index both dropping approximately 0.5%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6% [1]. - U.S. stock index futures also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both down about 0.5% [1]. - Commodity prices generally decreased, with gold dropping over $20 to $3314 per ounce, and copper falling for the third consecutive day to $9821 per ton [1][6]. Commodity Market Impact - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to widespread declines in commodity prices, with iron ore prices in Singapore down 0.3% to $95.60 per ton, and futures for steel in Dalian and Shanghai also declining [6]. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% to $67.8 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% to $64.7 per barrel, influenced by both tariff policies and OPEC+ decisions to increase production [7]. Bond Market Response - There was an increase in demand for safe-haven bonds, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropping nearly 2 basis points to 4.326% [10]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly rose to 97.071, while the euro to dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.1771, close to last week's high of 1.1830 [10].

Group 1: OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations of 411,000 barrels per day [1][3] - This marks a significant shift in OPEC+'s strategy from production cuts to actively ramping up capacity, following the removal of a 2.2 million barrels per day cut agreement in April [3] - The organization is considering another increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September, potentially allowing it to meet its 2023 supply targets a year ahead of schedule [3] Group 2: Global Oil Market Conditions - The global oil market is showing signs of oversupply, with Brent crude futures prices down 8.5% since 2025, influenced by increased production from OPEC+ and other regions [3] - The International Energy Agency anticipates a significant oversupply in the market later this year, with Wall Street predicting oil prices could drop to $60 per barrel or lower in the fourth quarter [3] Group 3: Trade Uncertainty Impact - President Trump's new tariff threats are expected to weaken market risk appetite, with potential tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% affecting a wide range of countries [4] - This uncertainty may disrupt global supply chains and suppress energy consumption demand in major economies, raising concerns about the impact on global economic recovery [4] - The combination of weak demand and increased supply poses significant challenges to the balance of the oil market, with WTI crude falling to $66.50 per barrel [4]

【消息面】 本周（6月30日至7月4日），黄金市场经历了显著波动，价格在创下新高后出现回调，最终录得1.91%的周线涨幅。地缘政治风险缓和、特朗普推 动的关税政策不确定性、美国主权债务担忧以及经济数据的强劲表现共同塑造了金价走势。市场焦点集中于美国非农就业数据、即将到期的特朗 普关税暂停期以及美联储政策前景。 下周市场将迎来多项重要事件，包括澳洲联储货币政策决定（7月8日）、美联储6月FOMC会议纪要（7月9日）以及美国周度初请失业金人数数据 （7月10日）。这些事件可能为市场提供有关货币政策和经济前景的线索，影响金价走势。 【黄金行情走势简析】 【7.7黄金下周一交易建议】 1，黄金稳健上涨3347-3350美元附近空，止损3355美元，止盈看3325美元 2，建议仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎 转自：金都财神A 1，从周线走势看，黄金本周一跌至3247.4美元触底反弹，最高涨至3365.6美元，周线收阳，TRIX趋势指标死叉，KDJ指标死叉，MACD指标绿色 空头动能增量，走势相对偏空，预计黄金走势下周还将震荡下行，后市有望跌至3200美元。 受美国独立日假期的影响，周五黄金波幅不大，亚盘黄金震荡上行， ...

新加坡经济发展局近期发布数据显示，今年5月，新加坡制造业产值同比增长3.9%，虽已连续11个月实 现增长，但5月的增幅相较于此前几个月却有所减缓，折射出制造业的增长动力正在发生变化。 再次，产业结构调整与升级的持续推进对制造业产生一定影响。为提高产业附加值和竞争力，新加坡政 府一直致力于推动制造业的产业结构调整与升级，鼓励企业加大在研发创新、高端制造、智能制造等方 面的投入。近年来，新加坡在精密工程、电子科技、生物医药等高新技术领域取得的发展，正是这一政 策导向成果的体现。然而，产业结构调整是一个长期的过程，部分传统产业在转型过程中可能会面临技 术瓶颈、资金压力、人才短缺等困难和挑战，这也可能导致制造业在短期内出现增长动力转换的阵痛。 因此，有分析认为，尽管新加坡制造业实现了连续增长，但增幅的减缓以及各领域的分化表现，显示出 其面临的复杂形势和潜在风险。未来，新加坡制造业的发展将取决于多种因素的综合作用。一方面，随 着全球科技行业的持续创新和新兴技术的不断涌现，新加坡高科技制造业有望迎来新的发展机遇，进一 步提升其在全球产业链中的地位。另一方面，全球经济环境不确定性加大、贸易保护主义抬头以及市场 竞争加剧等因 ...