英国央行行长贝利：不确定性将推迟英国企业的投资决策。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：由于不确定性极高，我们必须比以往任何时候都更加关注上行和下行风险。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：许多G7国家认为不确定性非常高。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is currently maintaining a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts due to high levels of uncertainty surrounding economic conditions, particularly influenced by tariff policies [1][2][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is heavily reliant on economic data, and any potential interest rate cuts will depend on clear evidence of the impact of tariffs on the economy, which may not be visible until late in the third quarter [3][4] - There is a significant focus on the balance between inflation and unemployment rates, with the Federal Reserve needing to make difficult trade-offs if both indicators rise simultaneously [4][5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring economic data, particularly the effects of tariffs on consumer spending and unemployment, as well as inflation indicators such as CPI and PCE [5][6] - Long-term inflation expectations are highlighted as a critical concern, with the potential for persistent inflation risks if expectations are not managed effectively [6]

美联储洛根：不确定性和市场波动可能导致消费者减少支出。 ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月28日，美联储公布了联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）5月6日至7日的会议 纪要。这是美国所谓"对等关税"政策宣布实施一个半月后，美联储的第一份会议纪要，以正式文件形式 反映了美联储官员对形势变化的看法，凸显了美联储当前面临的政策困境，讨论了应对策略，强化了会 议声明和美联储主席鲍威尔新闻发布会的政策立场。 孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 面对这一特殊困境，美联储的最佳应对策略只能是保持谨慎，等待观望。"与会者一致认为，鉴于经济 增长和劳动力市场依然稳健且当前货币政策的限制性适度，（FOMC）委员会完全有能力等待通胀和经 济前景更加明朗。在一系列政府政策调整的净经济效应更加明朗之前，采取谨慎态度是恰当的。"这是 对此前美联储及鲍威尔多次强调"不急于降息""等待成本较低""处于有利态势"等观点和态度的延续和强 化，说明尽管美国通胀和失业均有上升风险，但目前美联储更侧重于通胀方面，不降息本身就是控通胀 优先。 2022年至2023年加息期间，美联储是不惜付出衰退代价也要首先把通胀降下来的，那时及此后美联储也 多次强调价格稳定是实现长期可持续就业最大化的根本和前提。5月美联储会议 ...

金十数据5月29日讯，美国联邦法院裁定阻止特朗普总统的全面关税政策，受此影响，美元在早些时候 上涨后出现回落。法国兴业银行的基特・朱克斯在一份报告中表示，考虑到关税最初削弱了美元以及美 国的增长预期，美元对这一消息的"膝跳"式上涨是可以理解的。然而，他表示，这一裁决并非事情的终 结，令人惊讶的新闻还会不断出现。他还称，关税仍有可能实施。我唯一确定的是，已经很高的不确定 性又上升了一个台阶。 法兴银行：美法院阻止特朗普关税政策提高不确定性 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the limitations of economics as a social science, emphasizing that economic theories cannot be permanently validated or invalidated due to the changing nature of human behavior and societal ideas [2][3] - Keynesian economics, which emerged during the Great Depression, highlighted the role of government in stabilizing the economy and addressing issues like insufficient effective demand and unemployment [3][4] - The rise of neoliberalism in the 1970s challenged Keynesian principles, attributing economic stagnation to government intervention rather than market failure, yet Keynesian policies remain relevant during economic crises [4][8] Group 2 - The concept of uncertainty is central to Keynes's theory, influencing his views on money and government as tools to manage economic unpredictability [5][6] - Keynesian policies are particularly effective in addressing liquidity preference traps, where individuals hoard cash during economic downturns, leading to insufficient demand [6][7] - Despite the decline of Keynesianism in the 1970s due to its inability to address stagflation, the theory's focus on short-term stabilization remains significant in guiding macroeconomic policy during crises [8][9]

欧洲央行会议纪要：不确定性、欧元升值以及油气价格下跌，将进一步抑制近期的通胀前景。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of reading as a pathway to growth and understanding, inspired by the thoughts of renowned investors like Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Reading and Interaction - The publication aims to encourage continuous reading and interaction with its audience through book reviews, lists, and excerpts [4][5]. - Readers are invited to engage in discussions on selected themes, with opportunities to receive books based on the quality of their comments [6][11]. Featured Book: "Money and Government" - The highlighted book is "Money and Government" by Robert Skidelsky, which explores Keynesian economics and its relevance in modern times [9][10]. - The book discusses the limitations of economics as a social science, emphasizing that economic theories cannot be permanently validated or invalidated due to the changing nature of human behavior and societal ideas [12][13]. Keynesian Economics - Keynesian thought emerged during the Great Depression, focusing on the role of government in stabilizing the economy and addressing issues like insufficient effective demand and unemployment [13][14]. - Despite facing criticism and challenges from neoliberalism, Keynesian policies remain relevant during economic crises, as they provide tools for counter-cyclical measures [16][17]. Role of Money and Government - The book argues that both money and government are essential tools for managing uncertainty in economic activities, with money serving as a means to maintain value over time [15][19]. - It highlights the concept of liquidity preference traps, where individuals hoard cash during downturns, leading to insufficient demand [15][16]. Critique of Mainstream Economics - The author critiques mainstream economic theories that downplay the role of money and government, arguing that these theories fail to address real-world economic challenges [18][19]. - The discussion includes the historical context of economic events and the ideological biases that shape economic thought, advocating for a reevaluation of the roles of money and government in economic policy [19].