骤变的地缘格局、复杂的营商环境和潜在的文化与技术壁垒，都对企业出海构成巨大挑战。 面对世界百年变局与中国式现代化的交汇，中国企业正经历从"产品出海""品牌出海"到"生态出海"的跨 越。然而，骤变的地缘格局、复杂的营商环境和潜在的文化与技术壁垒，都对企业出海构成巨大挑战。 为确保海外征程行稳致远，企业必须将风险管理提升至战略高度，构建一套前瞻性、系统化、坚韧的风 险应对体系。这不仅关乎企业自身兴衰，也是服务国家构建新发展格局、深度参与全球治理的战略所 需。当前的核心任务，是深刻洞察风险本质，并以前瞻眼光和系统思维，为驾驭未来的风浪奠定坚实基 础。 中国企业出海的发展阶段与动力演化 自2001年入世以来，中国企业出海经历了从试探性布局到战略性行动的历史性跨越。根据《中国对外直 接投资统计公报》的数据，2024年末中国对外直接投资存量达31399.3亿美元，较2002年增长105倍；在 全球排名方面，中国已从第25位跃升至稳居前三，境外企业总数以平均年增10.4%的速度升至5.2万家， 海外雇佣总人数突破502万人。另外澎湃研究所整理的2015~2024年中国对外投资存量总额占比的分布 数据显示，投资布局的区域特征 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for significant growth and innovation, with China expected to dominate the global market by 2025, capturing nearly 70% of the power battery market and approximately 90% of the energy storage battery shipments [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, China's power battery global market share is projected to approach 70%, while energy storage battery shipments are expected to reach around 90% [2]. - The past year has seen remarkable performance from China's lithium battery industry in the global market, reflecting not just numerical growth but also an enhancement in overall competitiveness [2][3]. - The penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market has surpassed 50%, with exports doubling, indicating a fundamental shift in market dynamics [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The lithium battery sector is experiencing diverse breakthroughs, with advancements in liquid, semi-solid, and solid-state batteries, indicating a strong push towards marketization [3]. - Continuous investment in R&D across the supply chain is leading to innovations in materials, processes, and system integration, paving the way for energy transformation and a zero-carbon future [3]. - The industry is moving towards a more structured and optimized ecosystem, with safety and cost becoming critical metrics for development [3]. Group 3: Future Expectations - The year 2026 is anticipated to mark a new chapter focused on "value cultivation and resilience building," moving away from competitive exhaustion towards a more sustainable industry value chain [4][5]. - There is an expectation for breakthroughs in battery and material recycling technologies, which could enhance resource security and reduce dependency on critical minerals [5]. - The globalization of the lithium battery industry is evolving from basic product exports to a more integrated ecosystem, emphasizing standard recognition and collaborative policy frameworks [5]. Group 4: Industry Collaboration - The leading advantage of China's lithium battery industry relies on a cooperative and value-sharing approach that aligns with global energy transition needs [6]. - The industry is encouraged to pursue long-term strategies that emphasize quality, sustainability, and technological excellence, contributing to a robust future for the lithium battery sector [6][7]. - The call for reduced short-term profit-seeking behavior in favor of collaborative innovation reflects a shift towards a more resilient and forward-thinking industry mindset [7].

首次覆盖，给予"增持"投资评级。我们预计公司2025-2027 年分别可实现归母净利润42.53/46.50/50.99 亿元，同比增长37.2%/9.4%/9.6%。我们对公司传统冷配和汽车热管理业务进行分部估值，并考虑到AH 股溢价，对应合理市值为1433 亿元人民币；而三花智控H 股市值为1408 亿元港币，参考2025 年12 月26 日港币兑人民币汇率为0.9067，仍有12.3%上涨空间，首次覆盖，给予"增持"投资评级。 风险提示：原材料价格波动风险；汇率波动风险；人形机器人行业发展进度不及预期。 成熟业务：公司传统制冷和汽零业务保持领先地位。公司深耕传统制冷配件几十余载，多种产品在行业 市占率位居前列；制冷配件业务25H1 收入占比达64%，为公司第一大营收来源。随着内销空调等家电 保有量提升，出海市场空间广阔，有望刺激制冷配件需求，而公司有望凭借行业优势地位保持业务稳健 增长。汽零业务方面，公司凭借制冷配件多年积淀进行底层技术迁移，在份额高度集中的全球热管理市 场中，三花多品类份额居前，深度绑定国内外知名传统燃油车及新能车的核心整车厂商，获得客户广泛 认可。 新兴业务：储能＆机器人业务打开成长 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. has suspended the Section 301 investigation into China's shipbuilding and maritime industries, indicating a significant shift in the U.S.-China trade war and revealing a complex negotiation between the two nations [1][3] - The U.S. has agreed to cancel certain tariffs and relax export controls, while China has adjusted its countermeasures and committed to deeper cooperation in areas like fentanyl control and agricultural trade [3][5] - The suspension of the 301 investigation is symbolic, as China's shipbuilding industry has grown its global market share from 35% to nearly 50% over the past five years, challenging U.S. dominance [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. decision to suspend the "50% penetration rule" in export controls reflects a recognition that excessive regulation has backfired, as U.S. companies are calling for a relaxation of restrictions due to the importance of the Chinese market [5][7] - The trade dynamics suggest that there are no clear winners in the tariff negotiations, with the U.S. maintaining a 24% tariff while canceling a 10% fentanyl tariff, indicating a complex balancing act [3][5] - The geopolitical context, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, has prompted the U.S. to stabilize relations with China, while China is leveraging this opportunity to tie economic negotiations to global governance issues [5][7] Group 3 - The current pause in hostilities is temporary, with a one-year limit on the suspension of measures, indicating that the U.S. strategy towards China has not fundamentally changed [7][9] - The future of U.S.-China relations is likely to be characterized by a "competitive cooperation" model, with intense competition in high-end manufacturing and digital trade, alongside limited collaboration on issues like climate change and public health [7][9] - Chinese companies are encouraged to seize this opportunity to enhance core technologies in shipbuilding and logistics, while also focusing on domestic demand and innovation to withstand external pressures [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) plays a crucial role in promoting dialogue, trade, and cooperation among member economies, which is beneficial for advancing globalization [1]. Group 1: APEC's Role and Impact - APEC facilitates sustainable development and regional economic prosperity through collaboration among member economies [1]. - The organization maintains the momentum of globalization by creating platforms for dialogue and promoting trade liberalization and economic integration [1]. - APEC encourages flexible discussions on emerging issues, such as artificial intelligence, to enhance mutual understanding and cooperation [1]. Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - The region faces challenges such as escalating geopolitical conflicts and rising economic growth uncertainties [1]. - Strengthening trade facilitation and digital transformation can enhance the resilience and stability of the Asia-Pacific economy in an inclusive manner [1]. - APEC aims to enhance cooperation on practical issues like trade digitalization and mutual recognition agreements, helping businesses reduce costs and develop better [1]. Group 3: U.S.-China Relations - The U.S.-China relationship is multifaceted, with shared interests in areas such as health, aging, education, and the digital economy [1]. - APEC provides a favorable platform for dialogue among the U.S., China, and other member economies on a wide range of topics, fostering a prosperous future for the Asia-Pacific region [1]. Group 4: Future APEC Meetings - In 2026, APEC will once again be hosted by China, which is expected to bring new energy and enthusiasm to the organization [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan (02517), has initiated a significant step in its global expansion by launching its Hong Kong operations center, which is expected to enhance its global market engagement and strategic planning [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Guoquan's stock price increased by over 5% in the afternoon trading session, reaching a price of 3.83 HKD, with a trading volume of 106 million HKD [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The Hong Kong operations center, officially opened on October 21, marks a systematic advancement in Guoquan's globalization efforts, leveraging Hong Kong's position as an international financial and trade hub [1] - The center will serve as a strategic hub for global market engagement, coordinating global strategic planning and overseas partner connections [1] Group 3: Financial Actions - On September 25, Guoquan announced a board resolution to utilize up to 100 million HKD of its own funds for the repurchase of H-shares in the open market [1] - The company indicated that its current stock price does not adequately reflect its intrinsic value and business prospects, and the buyback reflects management's confidence in the company's long-term development [1] - The repurchase is expected to enhance shareholder returns through share cancellation or treasury stock [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent actions taken by the Dutch government against Anshi Semiconductor, a Chinese-controlled company, highlight a significant contradiction in their approach to international trade and investment, particularly in the context of reliance on Chinese resources for high-tech industries [1][10][19] Group 1: Government Actions - The Dutch government conducted a rapid national security review of Anshi Semiconductor, completing the process in just three days, which included the immediate transfer of control without allowing the company to voice objections or participate in hearings [3][6] - The actions taken by the Dutch authorities involved a complete takeover of the company, stripping the original shareholders of their management rights and reducing their stake to a mere symbolic share [3][6] Group 2: Impact on Industry - The takeover of Anshi Semiconductor poses a significant risk to the European high-tech industry, particularly in the semiconductor sector, where many companies are already facing chip shortages [10][12] - The reliance on Chinese resources, especially rare earth elements critical for high-tech manufacturing, creates a paradox where the Netherlands seeks cooperation with China while simultaneously undermining Chinese investments [8][10] Group 3: Trust and Investment Climate - The swift and aggressive actions against a Chinese company raise concerns about the trustworthiness of the European investment climate, as it contradicts the previously emphasized principles of rule of law and market economy [10][15] - The incident could deter future foreign investments, as companies may fear similar actions could be taken against them, leading to a decline in international investment confidence [15][21] Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - The actions taken by the Netherlands may exacerbate divisions within the EU regarding trade policies with China, as different member states have varying stances on cooperation versus confrontation [12][19] - The shift in focus from regulatory frameworks to resource control indicates a changing global landscape where countries that can secure stable supply chains will hold more power [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported steady revenue growth and significant profit increase in the first half of 2025, driven by both classic and innovative game offerings [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.89% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 950 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.41% [1] Group 2: Product Development and Innovation - The company focused on the classic "Legend" category and launched several new products, including "Dragon Valley World" and "Digital Monster: Source Code," which performed well in app store rankings [1] - The company has multiple new titles approved for release, expected to launch in the second half of this year and early next year [1] Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - Industry experts believe that the launch of new products by leading companies will significantly impact the competitive landscape as the industry recovers [2] - The company is diversifying its product portfolio to mitigate risks associated with single-category reliance and enhance its resilience against market cycles [2] Group 4: Global Expansion - The company reported overseas revenue of 202 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 59.57% [2] - The RPG title "MU Immortal" topped the iOS RPG free charts in multiple countries, indicating strong international performance [2] Group 5: IP Strategy - The company is diversifying its IP strategy by developing original IPs and incorporating well-known IPs like "King of Fighters" and "Ultraman" into its offerings [3] - The focus is on creating a multi-channel distribution strategy to reach a broader audience across different age groups [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining (601899) expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting approximately 232 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of about 54% [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zijin Mining anticipates a net profit of around 232 billion yuan, up from 151 billion yuan in the same period last year, representing an increase of approximately 81 billion yuan [1] - The company expects a net profit of about 130 billion yuan for Q2 2025, which is an increase of approximately 28 billion yuan compared to Q1 2025's 102 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of about 27% [1] - Zijin Mining forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, of approximately 215 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, up from 154 billion yuan year-on-year, marking a 40% increase [1] Sales and Production - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the rise in sales prices of gold, copper, zinc, and silver, along with production increases of 10% for copper and 17% for gold [1] - In Q1 2025, Zijin Mining reported an operating revenue of 789.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.55%, and a net profit of 101.67 billion yuan, reflecting a 62.39% year-on-year growth [2] - The company noted that the increase in production and operational management capabilities contributed to the growth, with gold and copper production rising by 2% and 3% respectively compared to Q4 2024 [2] Strategic Initiatives - Zijin Mining is accelerating its globalization efforts, announcing plans to acquire 100% equity of the Kazakhstan RG gold mine project for 1.2 billion USD [2] - The RG gold mine is characterized by a large resource base, long service life, mature processing technology, and strong profitability, with expectations for immediate contribution to production and profits [2]

Core Insights - The company reported retail sales growth for its brands in Q2 2025, with Anta brand showing low single-digit growth, FILA brand achieving mid-single-digit growth, and other brands experiencing a significant increase of 50-55% [1] - For the first half of 2025, Anta brand retail sales grew in the mid-single digits, FILA brand saw high single-digit growth, and other brands reported a growth of 60-65% [1] Group 1: Anta Brand Strategy - Anta is implementing a "store type revolution" driven by DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) strategies, focusing on precise matching of "different people, different places, different products" [1] - The store network has evolved into a matrix of five differentiated store types, including Arena, Palace, Elite, Standard, and Basic, tailored to various regions and shopping districts [1] Group 2: FILA Brand Strategy - FILA maintains a high average price strategy in the mid-to-high-end market, with a product price range of 800-1200 RMB, strategically positioned against competitors priced at 600-1000 RMB [1] - The brand is agile in adjusting its product and operational strategies, focusing on high-margin, well-designed trendy sports items while reducing inefficient SKUs [1] Group 3: Other Brands and Market Position - During the 618 shopping festival, FILA ranked first in categories such as sports shoes and sports dresses, and second in sports polo shirts and t-shirts, with the latter showing nearly 10% year-on-year growth [2] - Other brands are collaborating effectively, with Descente opening a significant store in Huamao Center to reach high-net-worth consumers, and Kelong launching a new line of minimalist and functional outdoor apparel [2] - Anta's acquisition of German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin is aimed at advancing its global strategy, particularly in the European market [2] Group 4: Financial Adjustments - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 78.6 billion RMB, 87.8 billion RMB, and 98.1 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting uncertainties in the consumer environment [2] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.5 billion RMB, 15.6 billion RMB, and 17.3 billion RMB, with corresponding EPS of 4.82 RMB/share, 5.56 RMB/share, and 6.16 RMB/share [2]