国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 纯碱：供应、 库存 05 纯碱：价格、 利润 06 01 玻璃：供应 端情况介绍 02 玻璃：价格 与利润 03 玻璃：库存 及下游开工 光伏玻璃： 价格与利润、 04 CONTENTS 产能与库存 玻璃观点：中期震荡市 第一，短期现货偏弱，全国各个地区玻璃价格普遍下跌。就中期而言需要注意6月地产偿债高峰因素、湖北仓 单定价对盘面压制因素，暂不宜对玻璃过度高看，但低位下跌空间也有限，长期看需要注意09合约作为一个 旺季合约，盘面定价却亏损幅度较大，玻璃未来波动率或较大； 第二、趋势上多头交易的核心支撑主要在政策端未来可能因地产收储、政府财政支持，政策资金保障加强后 保交楼落地预期增强、现货价格较低，处于历史价格25%分位以下、厂家长期亏损、09合约旺季预期； 第三、空头交易房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is not permanently bullish or bearish, and under policy support, it is trending positively. The key lies in adapting to the new normal and patiently waiting for recovery opportunities [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Country Garden announced the third extension of the restructuring support agreement deadline for qualified creditors, indicating ongoing challenges in debt restructuring [2]. - The company is under significant pressure from two fronts: ensuring home delivery and debt restructuring, which are critical for its survival [2]. Group 2: Home Delivery Efforts - Country Garden emphasized that home delivery remains its top priority, with over 600,000 homes delivered in 2023 and a target of 210,000 homes in 2025 [4][5]. - The company’s land reserve with pre-sale permits has decreased significantly, down 73% from 2022, indicating a tightening of available projects for delivery [4]. - The company plans to focus on home delivery in the first half of 2025, with a balanced approach in the second half to ensure operational stability [5]. Group 3: Debt Restructuring - Over 70% of holders have joined the offshore debt restructuring agreement, which could potentially reduce debt by $11 billion [6][11]. - The restructuring plan includes options such as cash buybacks and forced conversion of debt into equity, with varying recovery rates based on the chosen option [11][12]. - The company faces significant challenges, including a cash outflow situation and a substantial decline in sales, which fell by 73% year-on-year in 2024 [15]. Group 4: Financial Health - As of the end of 2024, Country Garden's cash and cash equivalents were at 29.9 billion yuan, with ongoing asset sales to meet obligations [5][15]. - The company reported a net loss, leading to a decline in total equity to 51.25 billion yuan, with negative equity of 7.2 billion yuan for the parent company [15][16]. - The company’s inventory value accounts for nearly 57% of total assets, with significant impairment losses recognized in recent years [16]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The management expresses confidence in navigating the current market challenges, emphasizing the importance of adapting to the new market normal and waiting for recovery opportunities [17].

"武鸣灵水小镇什么时候能交房？" 这曾经是一个很难回答的问题，也是在后台私信里被问得最多的一个问题。 而现在可以回答了。正逢端午佳节，灵水小镇B4号楼的业主喜提新房，迎来了人生中非常重要的一桩盛事，从此结束了那条曲折迂回的交房之路。 "6月1日交付北区B4栋2单元" 一纸通知传来，武鸣灵水小镇北区B4栋270户兑现整体交付。 这是南宁市平稳基金组织项目复工之后的第一次交付。 交付成果如何？ 5月31日上午，项目北区异常热闹，一大批业主如约而至。在交付现场，工作人员热情且耐心引导，业主们有序地办理着资料核对和收房手续。 跟着业主的脚步，一起来揭晓。 01. 不负期待 灵水小镇B4号楼兑现交付 "5月31日交付北区B4栋1单元" 作为2025年项目拿下的第一个保交楼成果，B4号楼交付表现如何？ 当那串意味着尘埃落定的钥匙交到手中的那一刻，有业主情不自禁露出了笑容。带着欣喜的心情，业主们络绎不绝来到了自家楼下。 抬眼望去，B4号楼巍然矗立，呈现着恢弘磅礴的气势，在周边一片还未完工的楼栋之间格外瞩目。 进入单元楼之后，可以看到首层大堂已经完成精装修，其他楼层公共区域同样焕然一新，光洁透亮的地面和墙壁明示着这里经历过多 ...

Group 1 - The recent land supply market in Haikou has been quiet, while Sanya has been actively listing land for sale, with a total of approximately 673.72 acres offered in the last two weeks [1][3] - Two new residential land plots have been listed in Sanya, with a combined area of about 127.72 acres and a starting price plus construction costs exceeding 2.4 billion [1][5] - The new land listings require bidders to have backgrounds as Fortune 500 companies or state-owned enterprises, indicating a focus on quality and stability in the bidding process [1][5] Group 2 - The first plot, DA02-17-01, is approximately 26.17 acres with a mixed-use designation, now primarily residential, and has a starting floor price of 15,015 yuan per square meter, totaling 810 million [3][5] - The second plot consists of two parts: C-03 for residential use with a starting floor price of 10,461 yuan per square meter, and D-09-02 designated for affordable housing with a significantly lower starting price of 5,802 yuan per square meter [5] - The requirement for developers to undertake public service and affordable housing construction is a common practice in Hainan, aimed at ensuring both financial viability and social responsibility [5]

Core Viewpoint - Country Garden Services has implemented multiple risk control measures in response to its financial arrangements and support for property delivery commitments [1][2]. Financial Arrangements - Country Garden Services announced a loan agreement with two companies, providing a total of 1 billion RMB in revolving loans, aimed at supporting property delivery efforts [2]. - The loan will be funded from internal resources and is secured by shares held by the major shareholder, Yang Huiyan [2][3]. - The loan has a term of 5 years with an annual interest rate of 5%, which is higher than typical bank interest rates, potentially benefiting the company's cash reserves [4]. Shareholder Protection Measures - The two companies involved in the loan hold significant shares in Country Garden Services, with a combined total of approximately 16.26% of the company's shares pledged as collateral for the loan [3]. - In case of default, dividends from the pledged shares can be used to pay interest, and the company has the option to buy back the pledged shares at a price below net asset value [3]. Business Impact - As the construction and delivery of properties under Country Garden accelerate, the management area for Country Garden Services is expected to increase, leading to higher revenue from property management services [4]. - For the fiscal year 2024, Country Garden Services reported total revenue of 43.99 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while gross profit decreased by 3.8% [4]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, Country Garden Services' stock price fell by 5.41%, trading at 6.65 HKD [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Lianxiang Intelligent Home Co., Ltd., is actively engaged in the wall fabric and curtain manufacturing industry, which is closely tied to the real estate market dynamics in China. The company is implementing a share repurchase plan and has proposed a cash dividend distribution to its shareholders, reflecting its commitment to returning value to investors. Financial Data - As of March 31, 2025, the company has repurchased 4,484,912 shares, accounting for 4.33% of its total share capital [5] - The total amount spent on share repurchases is approximately RMB 17.49 million, with a maximum repurchase price of RMB 17.20 per share [7] - The proposed cash dividend is RMB 1.00 per share, totaling approximately RMB 9.91 million, based on the adjusted total share capital after accounting for repurchased shares [13][34] Industry Overview - The wall fabric and curtain industry is significantly influenced by the real estate market, with a direct correlation to residential sales area and transaction volume [15] - In 2024, the sales area of new residential properties decreased by 14.1%, and the sales amount dropped by 17.6%, indicating a challenging market environment [16] - The "guarantee delivery" policy introduced by the central government aims to stabilize the real estate market, which may positively impact the demand for interior decoration materials like wall fabrics and curtains [17] Company Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the wall fabric industry, holding key positions in various industry associations [22] - The main business activities include the research, production, and sales of seamless wall fabrics and curtains, as well as decoration and renovation services [23] - The company has established a stable procurement and production model, ensuring quality control and efficient supply chain management [24][25] Market Trends - The wall fabric and curtain market is expected to grow due to increasing consumer demand for decorative materials and the ongoing urbanization process in China [18] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards more functional and aesthetically pleasing products, with wall fabrics gaining popularity over traditional wallpaper [19] - The overall construction and decoration industry is projected to benefit from government policies aimed at enhancing housing supply and improving living conditions [20][21]

Group 1 - Poly Development has accelerated its land acquisition pace, with significant investments in cities like Xiamen and Hangzhou since April, surpassing its total land acquisition amount for the first quarter [2][3] - In a competitive bidding process, Poly Development won a key residential land parcel in Hangzhou for 4.537 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 58.8% and a floor price of 51,611 yuan per square meter, setting a new record for the area [2] - The company also acquired land in Xiamen for 3.414 billion yuan with a premium rate of 12.34%, and another parcel in Hangzhou for 4.25 billion yuan with a premium rate of 17.73% [2] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, Poly Development's equity land acquisition amount was 12.1 billion yuan, indicating that the investment in the three parcels in April (12.201 billion yuan) exceeded the total for the quarter [3] - Alongside land acquisitions, Poly Development is also engaging in financing activities, having received approval for a convertible bond issuance of up to 8.5 billion yuan to fund 15 real estate projects in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [3] - The recent actions of Poly Development reflect a strategy to strengthen its project reserves in core cities and capitalize on market opportunities amid improving policy support and market confidence [3]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue in 2024 decreased by 24.23% year-on-year, but gross profit margin and net profit attributable to shareholders improved due to enhanced cost management and project management capabilities [2][3] - The asset-liability ratio rose to 93.97%, with short-term debt accounting for 96.01% and a cash ratio of only 0.15 [3] - Accounts receivable increased by 51.32% year-on-year, indicating a need for improved management of customer payment terms [5][6] Business Strategy - The company aims to increase the revenue share from low-altitude infrastructure construction, which currently represents a small portion of its business [3] - Plans to enhance digitalization in traditional business areas to improve efficiency and potentially exit low-margin sectors like residential renovation [4][5] - The company is actively working to diversify its client base, as the top five clients account for 86.53% of sales [6] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on differentiating itself in a weak construction market by leveraging its qualifications and successful project experience to build trust with clients [6] - It is committed to expanding its presence in the central and western regions of China, while currently having no overseas market plans [7] Regulatory Compliance - The company has maintained cash dividends over the past three years, totaling less than 30 million, which complies with relevant regulations [4][5] - It is responding to the EU carbon tariff requirements by enhancing supply chain management and selecting low-carbon suppliers [4]

4月23日晚间，保利发展（600048）公告，公司向特定对象发行可转换公司债券的申请已获得中国证券 监督管理委员会同意注册批复，成为资本市场首单成功获批的现金类定向可转债项目。 保利发展本次定向可转债的拟发行总额不超过85亿元(含本数)，募集资金拟用于北京、上海、佛山等城 市的15个"保交楼、保民生"相关的房地产开发项目。本次定向可转债将有效满足募集资金投资项目的资 金需求，为公司补充经营发展所需资金。同时，本次融资也将有助于保利发展优化资本结构和债务结 构，更好匹配发展新模式的要求，为行业树立标杆，有效增强市场信心。 保利发展表示，本次定向可转债的成功注册，不仅对公司发展有着积极作用，在推动资本市场改革创 新、促进房地产行业平稳发展、保障与改善社会民生等方面同样具有重要意义。 据了解，保利发展本次定向可转债为资本市场首单注册的现金类定向可转债项目，是定向可转债在并购 重组运用之后，在再融资领域的一次新的尝试，为房企上市公司融资提供了新的融资渠道选择，也为投 资人提供了更多元的投资选择。 在行业发展层面，保利发展本次定向可转债是中国证监会2022年"资本市场支持房地产市场平稳健康发 展"政策精神的延续，表明监 ...

证券代码：600340 证券简称：华夏幸福 公告编号：2025-013 华夏幸福基业股份有限公司关于控股 子公司不再纳入合并报表范围的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性及完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示: ● 华夏幸福基业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股子公司廊坊京御房地产开发有限公司（以下简 称"廊坊京御"）与香河嘉华房地产开发有限公司、北京贯天德俊科贸有限公司（以下简称"香河嘉 华"、"贯天德俊"，合称"合作方"）签订项目投资合作协议及补充协议（以下简称"合作协议"），共同 投资大厂回族自治县裕坤房地产开发有限公司（以下简称"大厂裕坤"或"项目公司"）。廊坊京御与合作 方拟就项目公司经营管理事项签署补充协议，约定廊坊京御在股东会的51%表决权调整为以其持有大厂 裕坤40%的股份行使表决权，董事会席位调整为2名。因上述调整，公司不再拥有对大厂裕坤的控制 权，故其不再纳入公司合并报表范围； ● 本次事项不构成关联交易，也不构成《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》规定的重大资产重组情形； ● 本次事项已经公司第八届董事会第三十次会 ...