Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant turmoil following a massive sell-off of over 80,000 bitcoins, valued at approximately $9 billion, which has sparked debates about the conflict between belief and reality in the crypto space [1][10]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The sell-off, attributed to a prominent figure from the "Satoshi era," has raised concerns about market stability, yet surprisingly, the bitcoin price briefly surged by over $5,000, stabilizing around $119,000 [1][3]. - Analysts speculate that the transaction may have been conducted privately through institutional arrangements, mitigating the potential market impact of the $9 billion sell-off [3]. Group 2: Community Response - The event has ignited intense discussions on social media, with contrasting views emerging between the "faithful" and the "realists," leading to a charged atmosphere [3][5]. - Some community members argue that the sell-off could be related to estate planning rather than a loss of faith in bitcoin, citing ongoing purchases by other early investors as evidence [6]. Group 3: Bitcoin's Identity Crisis - The sell-off has prompted a broader discussion about bitcoin's identity, with some asserting that it has evolved from a niche experiment to a mainstream asset, while others view this as a sign of its success [8][10]. - Concerns have been raised about the sustainability of bitcoin mining, as diminishing rewards and reduced transaction volumes could threaten the network's security and stability [8]. Group 4: Future Implications - The event is seen as a reflection of bitcoin's evolution from a geeky experiment to a complex asset class, suggesting that the departure of early investors may signal the beginning of a new chapter [10][12]. - The ongoing debates and market fluctuations indicate that the cryptocurrency landscape remains unpredictable, with potential for significant changes ahead [12].

Group 1 - The core idea revolves around Sun Yuchen's strategic move to take his blockchain platform Tron public on NASDAQ through a reverse merger, leveraging the current popularity of stablecoins and cryptocurrencies [1][2][5] - The company he targeted for the reverse merger is SRM Entertainment, which had a revenue of only $4.31 million and a loss of $4.33 million last year, but saw its stock price surge by 647% in one day following the announcement [2][5] - The transaction involves SRM receiving a $100 million equity investment to support Tron’s financial management plan, and after the deal, SRM will be renamed "Tron Inc." with Sun Yuchen becoming an advisor [2][5] Group 2 - The operation is backed by Dominari Securities, which has connections to the Trump family, raising questions about the influence of political relationships in this business maneuver [4][5] - Sun Yuchen has previously invested $75 million in a cryptocurrency project associated with the Trump family and has been recognized as a significant figure in the crypto space by Eric Trump [5][6] - The SEC had previously filed a lawsuit against Sun Yuchen for selling unregistered securities, but the lawsuit was paused, allowing this operation to proceed [5][6] Group 3 - Sun Yuchen is known for his marketing prowess, having gained fame through high-profile publicity stunts, such as purchasing a lunch with Warren Buffett for $4.568 million and buying a banana artwork for $6.24 million [6][9] - He is set to become the youngest Chinese space traveler at 35, having purchased a ticket for a Blue Origin flight, which he frames as part of a larger narrative connecting cryptocurrency and space exploration [11][12] - Tron has become a significant player in the crypto market, with over 313 million global users and locked assets exceeding $20 billion, making it the second-largest blockchain after Ethereum [15][16]

【黄金期货行情表现】 在高利率环境和全球化重构的大背景下，黄金的定价机制正在由传统的以实际利率为核心向以央行购金 为核心，央行购金的行为是关键，背后是"去中心化"、避险需求的集中体现。货币属性方面，特朗普的 大而美法案顺利通过，美国债务问题有望加重，导致美元的货币信用出现裂痕，在去美元化进程中黄金 的去法币化属性凸显。金融属性方面，在全球高利率环境下，黄金作为零息债对债券的替代效应减弱， 对美债实际利率的敏感度下降。避险属性方面，地缘政治风险边际减弱，特朗普的关税政策加剧全球贸 易紧张，市场避险需求仍在，成为阶段性推升黄金价格的重要因素。商品属性方面，中国实物金需求明 显上升，央行从去年11月重启增持黄金，已连续增持八个月。目前来看，推升本轮金价上涨的逻辑没有 完全逆转，美联储的利率政策和关税政策可能是短期扰动因素，预计今年的利率政策会更加谨慎，关税 政策和地缘政治冲突的演变主导着市场避险情绪变化。根据美国最新数据，非农数据显示劳动力市场韧 性较强，非农就业人口超过市场预期，失业率下降至4.1%。6月PCE数据显示通胀数据放缓，核心PCE 同比上涨2.8%，超过市场预期，PCE同比上涨2.6%，超过市场预期， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, rolled steel, and glass are rated as "High - level Volatility"; Rebar (RB2601) and Iron Ore (I2601) suggest a strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai Composite 50 is rated as "Rebound"; CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are rated as "Volatility"; 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds are rated as "Volatility" (10 - year is "Decline"); Gold is rated as "High - level Volatility"; Silver is rated as "High - level Decline" [2][4] - **Light Industry**: Pulp is rated as "Correction"; Logs are rated as "Volatility"; Oils and Fats (including soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) are rated as "Volatility with an Uptrend Bias"; Meal (including soybean meal and rapeseed meal), soybean No.2, and soybean No.1 are rated as "Volatility" [5] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Volatility with a Downtrend Bias" [8] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Volatility"; PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "Wait - and - See" [10][11][12] 2. Core Views - The overall performance of the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, which may lead to a continued weakening of market trading enthusiasm. Policy - related production cuts and restrictions in the future need to be closely watched [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations in the second half of the year, and to promote investment and consumption [4] - The logic driving the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed, but short - term fluctuations may be affected by the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies [4] 3. Summary by Industry Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments are increasing, and supply remains abundant. Although recent arrivals have declined, they are expected to rebound seasonally. Iron ore fundamentals are currently stable, but there are risks of policy - driven production cuts and restrictions. A strategy of "Long RB2601, Short I2601" is recommended [2] - **Coal Coke**: The exchange has adjusted the trading limit for coking coal due to recent sharp price increases. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced resources has decreased. Coke has seen four consecutive rounds of price increases, and there is an expectation of a fifth round [2] - **Rolled Steel**: In the off - season, building material demand has declined, and steel inventories have started to rise from a low level. The short - term steel industry still has expectations of stable growth, and the same "Long RB2601, Short I2601" strategy is recommended [2] - **Glass**: Supply remains low, and market sentiment has improved, leading to increased downstream stocking. However, real - estate demand is still weak, and long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting emphasized efforts to achieve annual goals. Market upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields on 10 - year treasury bonds have declined, and the central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations. Market interest rates have rebounded, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [4] - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics. Although there are short - term pressures, the upward - driving logic has not reversed. Silver has declined due to factors such as the Fed's non - interest - rate - cut decision and hawkish remarks [4] Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost of pulp has decreased, and the paper - making industry's demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand situation is weak, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6] - **Logs**: Log demand is in the off - season, but furniture exports are favorable. The cost of logs is rising, and supply pressure is not significant. Log prices are expected to remain stable with some volatility [6] - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil may slow down, and demand is recovering. Domestic oil inventories are increasing. Oils and fats are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to soybean weather and palm oil production and sales [6] - **Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is weak. However, weather conditions in the US soybean - growing areas may provide some support, and soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6] - **Soybean No.2 and Soybean No.1**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with attention to US soybean weather, soybean arrivals, and Sino - US trade negotiations [6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply of live pigs is increasing. High - temperature weather restricts consumption demand, and slaughterhouse operating rates are expected to decline slightly, with pig prices likely to fall week - on - week [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather and the Thai - Cambodian conflict, and demand from the tire industry is mixed. Rubber inventories at Qingdao Port are decreasing, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm [10][11] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: PX supply is tight in the short term, and prices follow oil prices. PTA supply recovery is slow, and demand is weakening. MEG supply pressure is increasing. PR and PF are facing cost and demand challenges, and all are in a wait - and - see situation [10][11][12]

Group 1: Regulatory Framework - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" officially implemented on August 1, allowing institutions to apply for licenses [1] - The ordinance requires a minimum capital of 25 million HKD and mandates 100% asset backing for stablecoins [1][10] - Issuers must ensure that stablecoins are redeemable at face value within one working day, addressing investor protection concerns [10] Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of June 2023, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies exceeded 3 trillion USD, with stablecoins reaching approximately 260 billion USD, a growth of over 40 times since 2020 [2] - Stablecoins have become essential for internal transactions in the cryptocurrency market due to restrictions on fiat and crypto exchanges [2] - The demand for stablecoins is expected to grow significantly, particularly in cross-border payments and gaming sectors [5][19] Group 3: Technological and Operational Aspects - Stablecoins are built on public blockchain technology, with Ethereum and TRON being the most prominent platforms [3] - Financial institutions like JPMorgan and major credit card companies have already integrated stablecoin solutions into their operations [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry expert predicts that within five years, compliant stablecoins will gradually replace SWIFT for peer-to-peer payments, leading to significant changes in the financial system [19] - The development of stablecoins is seen as a strategy to bolster the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy [17][18]

Core Insights - IOTA celebrates its 10th anniversary alongside Ethereum, marking a decade of evolution in blockchain technology and its applications in various sectors [1][2] - The project has established itself as a significant player in decentralized infrastructure, focusing on real-world applications and partnerships with governments and enterprises [1][12] Group 1: Evolution and Current Position - IOTA has transitioned from a niche project to a key player in financial innovation, data security, and global trade digitization [1][2] - The launch of the Rebased mainnet upgrade and the TWIN digital trade infrastructure highlights IOTA's commitment to enhancing its ecosystem and real-world applications [1][5] Group 2: Ecosystem Development - IOTA's ecosystem includes diverse modules such as DeFi, RWA, NFT, GameFi, and Meme, creating a comprehensive financial service framework [6][10] - The introduction of Pools as a decentralized exchange (DEX) and Deepr as a lending platform enhances liquidity and user experience within the IOTA ecosystem [6][7] Group 3: Real-World Applications - TWIN, launched in May 2025, aims to improve global trade transparency and efficiency through decentralized data exchange [13][14] - TLIP focuses on enhancing cross-border trade logistics, particularly in Africa, by simplifying information exchange and promoting international trade [14][20] Group 4: Compliance and Global Strategy - IOTA emphasizes compliance as a critical factor for establishing trust with governments and institutions, having achieved various certifications and partnerships globally [18][19] - The project has made significant strides in the MENA region, Europe, North America, and Africa, aiming to expand its reach and influence in the blockchain space [19][20] Group 5: Technological Advancements - The Rebased mainnet upgrade introduced a dual smart contract ecosystem, enhancing IOTA's performance, security, and developer accessibility [23][24] - IOTA's network can handle over 50,000 transactions per second (TPS) with sub-second confirmation times, making it suitable for high-frequency trading [24] Group 6: Developer Engagement and Community - IOTA has launched multiple hackathons and grant programs to foster developer engagement and support innovative projects within its ecosystem [38][43] - The IOTA token ($IOTA) plays a crucial role in the ecosystem, with over 80% circulation, indicating strong liquidity and community involvement [48]

Core Concept - The article discusses the rise and significance of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset that operates independently of central banks and government institutions [1]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Cryptocurrencies - Cryptocurrencies are digital assets based on blockchain technology, with Bitcoin being the most representative example [1]. - Key features of cryptocurrencies include being digital, decentralized, cryptographically secure, and utilizing blockchain technology for transparent transaction records [1]. Group 2: Motivation Behind Cryptocurrency Creation - The invention of cryptocurrencies was motivated by a loss of trust in traditional financial systems, especially after the 2008 financial crisis, leading to the desire for a currency system independent of banks and governments [1]. Group 3: Bitcoin Transaction Mechanism - Bitcoin transactions differ from traditional banking as they are decentralized and rely on a distributed network rather than a central authority [3][5]. - Each Bitcoin transaction is recorded in a "block," and multiple blocks form a "blockchain," which is a shared ledger maintained by all network participants [4][5]. Group 4: Bitcoin Mining and Supply - Bitcoin is generated through a process called "mining," where miners solve complex mathematical problems to validate transactions and earn new bitcoins as rewards [6][7]. - The total supply of Bitcoin is limited, making it akin to "digital gold" [7]. Group 5: Other Cryptocurrencies and Their Functions - The success of Bitcoin has led to the emergence of various other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Ripple, each serving different market needs [7][8][10]. - Ethereum, for instance, supports decentralized applications through its smart contract platform, expanding the use cases of blockchain technology [8][9]. Group 6: Future Trends in Cryptocurrency - Key trends in the cryptocurrency space include the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), increasing institutional adoption, technological upgrades to address energy consumption and transaction speed, and the establishment of regulatory frameworks [10][11]. - The disruptive potential of cryptocurrencies lies in their ability to reconstruct trust systems and provide individuals with financial freedom, prompting traditional finance to evolve [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore - Oscillation; Coal and coke - Uptrend; Rolled steel - Oscillation; Glass - Uptrend; Soda ash - Bullish [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50 Index - Rebound; CSI 300 Index - Oscillation; CSI 500 Index - Oscillation; CSI 1000 Index - Oscillation; 2 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 5 - year Treasury bond - Oscillation; 10 - year Treasury bond - Rebound; Gold - Oscillation; Silver - Bullish operation [3][4][6] - **Light Industry**: Pulp - Correction; Log - Correction [6] - **Oil and Fat Industry**: Soybean oil - Oscillation and correction; Palm oil - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed oil - Oscillation and correction [6] - **Feed Industry**: Soybean meal - Oscillation and correction; Rapeseed meal - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 2 - Oscillation and correction; Soybean No. 1 - Oscillation and correction [8] - **Agricultural Products Industry**: Live pigs - Oscillation and weakness [8] - **Soft Commodities Industry**: Rubber - Oscillation; PX - Wait - and - see; PTA - Wait - and - see; MEG - Wait - and - see; PR - Wait - and - see; PF - Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views - The black industry is affected by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand situation varies by product [2]. - The financial market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the start of the full - island customs closure operation in Hainan Free Trade Port, and central bank operations. The upward momentum of the market weakens, and risk preferences decline [3][4]. - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and the Fed's interest rate and tariff policies, as well as geopolitical conflicts, affect the market sentiment [4][6]. - The pulp and log markets show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to correct [6]. - The oil and fat and feed markets are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and trade agreements. After previous rises, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term [6][8]. - The live pig market is affected by factors such as temperature, slaughter enterprise procurement, and supply - demand relationship. The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may also weaken [8]. - The rubber market is affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - The polyester industry is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and cost. Most products are in a wait - and - see state [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipping volume increases, and the supply is still abundant. In the short term, the fundamentals are acceptable, but in the medium and long term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It follows the trend of finished products, and attention should be paid to the support at 800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coal and Coke**: The expectation of anti - involution policies and supply - side policies boosts market sentiment. After the second price increase, the cost of coke still has pressure, and the market's bullish expectation is enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [2]. - **Rolled Steel (Thread Steel)**: The "anti - involution" policy stimulates supply - side sentiment, but the overall demand is weak. In the short term, it is supported by policies, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand side has weakening real demand but strong speculative demand. The supply side has increasing production pressure. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - **Soda Ash**: It is bullish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the real demand and supply - side trends [2]. Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market upward momentum weakens, and it is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [3][4]. - **Precious Metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. In the short term, it is affected by the Fed's policies and geopolitical factors. Silver is bullish [4][6]. Light Industry - **Pulp**: The cost price decline weakens the support for pulp prices. The paper industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure, and pulp prices are expected to correct [6]. - **Log**: The supply pressure is not large, but the anti - involution sentiment weakens, and log prices are expected to correct [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: Supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand. Although supported by the bio - diesel expectation, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [6]. Feed Industry - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, Soybean No. 1**: Affected by factors such as US soybean production, inventory, and trade agreements, prices may oscillate and correct in the short term after previous rises [8]. Agricultural Products Industry - **Live Pigs**: The average transaction weight may decline slightly, and prices may weaken due to factors such as supply increase and demand suppression by high temperatures [8]. Soft Commodities Industry - **Rubber**: Affected by weather, production, demand, and inventory, prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Most products in the polyester industry are affected by supply - demand and cost factors and are in a wait - and - see state [10].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of stablecoins has attracted significant investor interest, but it has also led to a resurgence of financial scams, with fraudsters exploiting the appeal of stablecoins to lure investors into traps [1][2][7] Group 1: Scam Tactics - Common scams include "fake airdrops," where fraudsters create deceptive links that mimic legitimate airdrop promotions, leading to phishing attacks [2][3] - Another prevalent scam involves impersonating investment experts, where victims are drawn into high-risk projects under the guise of low-risk, high-return opportunities [2][3] - The "Xinkangjia" scam is highlighted as a major case, involving over 200 million investors and more than 10 billion yuan in losses, showcasing the scale of such fraudulent activities [3][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory bodies in various regions, including Beijing and Shenzhen, have issued warnings about the illegal activities associated with stablecoins, emphasizing that all financial activities under the guise of stablecoins are illegal in mainland China [7][8] - Despite the warnings, some investors misinterpret regulatory alerts as signs of opportunity, ignoring the associated risks [7] Group 3: Technical Challenges - The use of stablecoins, particularly USDT, complicates the tracking of fraudulent funds due to their anonymous nature and the ability to use mixing services to obscure transaction trails [4][5] - Legal experts note that while blockchain transactions can be traced, the use of mixing tools can sever the connection to the original source, making recovery of lost funds extremely difficult [5][6] Group 4: Investor Behavior - Many investors continue to engage in high-risk schemes, often referred to as "stupid games," despite previous losses, indicating a persistent belief in recovering their investments through new projects [5][6] - There is a growing concern about "secondary scams," where fraudsters exploit victims' desperation to recover losses by offering dubious recovery services [6]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Upward [2] - Coking coal and coke: Upward [2] - Rolled steel: Stronger [2] - Glass: Upward [2] - Shanghai Composite 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index Futures/Options: Sideways [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bonds: Sideways [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Stronger Sideways [4] - Silver: Stronger [4] - Pulp: Sideways Upward [6] - Logs: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Palm oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Rapeseed oil: Sideways Correction [6] - Soybean meal: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 2: Sideways Upward [6] - Soybean No. 1: Sideways Upward [6] - Live pigs: Sideways Weaker [7] - Rubber: Sideways [9] - PX: Wait - and - See [9] - PTA: Wait - and - See [9] - MEG: Wait - and - See [9] - PR: Wait - and - See [9] - PF: Wait - and - See [9] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities including black industry products, financial futures, precious metals, agricultural products, and chemical products. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy expectations, cost changes, and geopolitical situations to predict the price trends of these commodities [2][4][6][9]. Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased, with subsequent supply remaining abundant. During the industrial off - season, steel production decreased, but hot metal production rose. Port inventories slightly increased. In the short - term, influenced by policies and sentiment, prices rose strongly, breaking through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Anti - involution policy expectations are fermenting, making coking coal and coke the leading varieties in the black sector. After the second price increase, coke still faces cost pressure, and the market has a stronger expectation of future price increases. With hot metal production remaining high, the coke fundamentals are healthy, and the futures prices are expected to be stronger in the short - term [2]. - **Rolled steel**: The "anti - involution" policy has boosted supply - side sentiment. Although the central urban work conference was below expectations, the expectation of stable growth in the steel industry continued to push up market sentiment. During the off - season, construction material demand declined, but steel profits were okay, and inventory pressure was not significant [2]. - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" trading may continue. The demand for glass deep - processing orders weakened slightly, but speculative demand was strong. Supply is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the supply side. In the long - term, the real estate industry is in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to rebound significantly [2]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The previous trading day saw increases in major stock indices. Some sectors had capital inflows while others had outflows. China's economic data reflects resilience, and market risk - aversion sentiment has eased. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bond prices are rebounding slightly. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Influenced by factors such as the US debt problem, trade tensions, and increased Chinese physical gold demand, the logic for the current gold price increase remains valid, and it is expected to be in a stronger sideways trend [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The spot market price is stable. The decrease in raw material prices weakens cost support. The paper industry is in a low - profit state, and demand is in the off - season. Affected by the anti - involution policy, pulp prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Logs**: The daily shipping volume of logs at ports has increased. The supply pressure is not large, and cost support has strengthened. Affected by the anti - involution policy, log prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in June, but inventory increased. The increase in US biodiesel production supports soybean oil demand. Domestic oil inventories are rising, and after the previous increase, prices may correct in the short - term [6]. - **Meals**: The estimated US soybean production decreased, but the increase in end - of - year inventory exceeded expectations. The good growth of US soybeans and the positive bio - fuel policy support soybean prices. Domestic soybean imports are large, and meal prices are expected to be sideways upward [6]. - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing. The average settlement price of slaughter enterprises has slightly increased, but the price is in a downward trend. With sufficient supply and weak consumption, the average price of live pigs may decline in the future [7]. Soft Commodities and Chemicals - **Rubber**: Rainy weather in major rubber - producing areas has affected raw material supply. The tire industry's capacity utilization rate has a structural recovery, but is restricted by market demand. Rubber inventories are in a state of adjustment, and rubber prices are expected to be in a wide - range sideways trend [9]. - **PX**: In the short - term, the PX supply - demand remains tight, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - **PTA**: The cost is volatile, the supply has increased, and downstream demand has decreased. The price follows the cost in the short - and medium - term [9]. - **MEG**: The recent arrival volume is small, and port inventories are slightly decreasing. The supply pressure has eased, and the price is in a stronger sideways trend in the short - term [9]. - **PR and PF**: Affected by the macro - environment and market sentiment, the polyester bottle - chip and polyester staple - fiber markets are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [9].