Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating potential for excess returns in certain segments under tariff impacts [4][5]. Core Insights - The petrochemical index has historically underperformed the broader market, but segments like refining and oil services have shown periods of excess returns [5][6]. - As of April 11, 2025, refining margins for major domestic refineries reached 767 CNY/ton, with a significant month-on-month increase of 24.16% [9]. - The report highlights that the current procurement of crude oil in China is primarily from Russia and Middle Eastern countries, limiting the impact on refining costs from U.S. imports [9]. - The oil service sector is expected to continue its upward trend due to domestic requirements for increased reserves and production [11]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices closed at 64.76 USD/barrel on April 11, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.25% from the previous week [20]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. decreased to 583, down by 7 rigs week-on-week [30]. Refining Sector - The report notes a recovery in refining profitability, with domestic refining margins improving significantly [9]. - The Singapore refining margin for major products was reported at 9.87 USD/barrel, down by 4.08 USD/barrel from the previous week [9]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, with the average price in East China at 4316.25 CNY/ton, down 11.43% week-on-week [9]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry is currently underperforming but may improve as new capacities are expected to taper off in the coming years [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [16]. - It also suggests looking at companies with high dividend yields like China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [16]. - For the ethylene production segment, Satellite Chemical is highlighted as a key player due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [16]. - In the polyester sector, companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials are recommended as they are expected to benefit from tightening supply-demand conditions [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector, specifically for the "Big Three" oil companies [7] Core Insights - The ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict highlights the importance of energy security, with China's reliance on oil imports projected at 72% and natural gas at 43% for 2024 [1][13] - Oil price volatility is exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropping by 13.3% and 13.6% respectively since the beginning of April 2025 [2][18] - The "Big Three" oil companies are expected to show resilience in earnings despite oil price fluctuations, with projected production increases of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% for China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC respectively in 2025 [3][31] - High dividend payouts and share buybacks are expected to enhance the long-term investment value of the "Big Three" oil companies, with dividend payout ratios of 52%, 69%, and 45% for China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC respectively in 2024 [4][48] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the strategic value of state-owned enterprises in ensuring energy security amid rising import dependence and geopolitical tensions [1][17] Section 2: Oil Price Dynamics - Oil prices are under pressure due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production decisions, with the marginal cost for new shale oil wells estimated at $65 per barrel [2][26] Section 3: Company Performance - The "Big Three" oil companies are projected to maintain profitability with net profit increases of 2.0% for China National Petroleum, 11% for CNOOC, and a 24% increase in upstream EBIT for Sinopec [3][31] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the "Big Three" oil companies and their subsidiaries, as well as leading companies in refining and coal chemical sectors, given the favorable long-term outlook [5]

2025 年 4 月 8 日 公司研究 增持体现大股东发展信心，油价波动期公司经营韧性凸显 ——中国石油（601857.SH/0857.HK）公告点评 要点 事件：公司发布《关于控股股东增持公司股份计划的公告》，控股股东中国石油 集团拟增持公司股份，拟增持金额不少于人民币 28 亿元（含本数），不超过人 民币 56 亿元（含本数）。 点评： 增持彰显大股东对公司发展信心，看好公司长期发展前景。中国石油集团将使用 自有资金，分别通过上海证券交易所交易系统集中竞价方式及香港联合交易所有 限公司系统场内交易方式增持公司 A 股及 H 股股份。综合考虑市场波动、资金 安排、境内外监管要求等因素并为保障本次增持计划顺利实施，中国石油集团及 其全资子公司将自本公告日起 12 个月内完成本次增持计划。本次增持体现了中 国石油集团对公司未来发展前景的信心，表明公司对资本市场的积极态度。 一体化产业链优势显著，油价波动期彰显公司业绩韧性。2024 年布油均价为 79.86 美元/桶，同比-2.8%，公司积极应对形势变化，持续加大勘探开发力度， 深入推进炼化转型升级，依托全产业链优势抵御油价波动，24 年归母净利润同 比+2.0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 420.51 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year. However, in the fourth quarter alone, revenue decreased by 13.94% year-on-year to 94.48 billion yuan, and net profit fell by 18.78% to 21.28 billion yuan [2][6]. - The company's oil and gas net production significantly increased, achieving better performance than market oil price fluctuations, with a total net production of 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high [12]. - The average Brent crude oil price for 2024 was $79.86 per barrel, down 2.81% year-on-year, while the company achieved an average oil price of $76.75 per barrel, a decline of 1.6%, which was less than the Brent price drop [12]. - The company continues to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a major cost advantage in barrel oil production, where the main cost was $28.52 per barrel, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [12]. - Future outlook suggests that oil prices are expected to stabilize at a mid-to-high level, with net production targets set for 2025-2027 ranging from 760 to 830 million barrels of oil equivalent, indicating steady growth [12]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of approximately 44.7% for 2024, with total dividends amounting to about 66.54 billion Hong Kong dollars [12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 420.51 billion yuan and net profit of 137.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.94% and 11.38% respectively [2][6]. - The fourth quarter saw a revenue drop of 13.94% year-on-year and a net profit decrease of 18.78% [2][6]. Production and Cost Management - The total net production reached 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and overseas projects [12]. - The company maintained a competitive cost structure, with a barrel oil cost of $28.52, down 1.1% from the previous year [12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates oil prices to remain above $70 per barrel, with production targets set for gradual increases over the next few years [12]. - The focus on shareholder returns is expected to continue, with a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% in the coming years [12].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in production and has committed to a higher dividend payout ratio [2] - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 420.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.94 billion yuan, up 11.38% year-on-year [7] - The company has maintained a strong operational performance despite challenges such as asset impairment affecting profits [8] - The company has a leading position in the industry regarding reserve and production growth rates, with a capital expenditure of 132.7 billion yuan in 2024, the highest in its history [9] - The company is focused on shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio, with a total dividend of 1.40 Hong Kong dollars per share for 2024, a 12% increase year-on-year [12] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 140.37 billion yuan, 146.32 billion yuan, and 154.52 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.79, 8.44, and 7.99 [13] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 420.51 billion yuan, with a net profit of 137.94 billion yuan, and a basic earnings per share of 2.90 yuan [7][14] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 53.6% for 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 18.5% [14] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 1,056.28 billion yuan by 2024, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 29.0% [16]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a stable performance in 2024, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit, despite challenges in oil prices [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, CNOOC achieved total revenue of 420.506 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.936 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 94.482 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.9% year-on-year and 4.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 21.277 billion yuan, down 18.8% year-on-year and 42.4% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Oil Price Stability - The average Brent crude oil futures price in 2024 remained stable at 79.86 USD per barrel, a decrease of 2.81% year-on-year, while the realized price for CNOOC's crude oil was 76.75 USD per barrel, down 1.6% year-on-year [2]. Production Growth - CNOOC's total oil and gas production reached 727 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company's capital expenditure for 2024 was 132.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year increase, indicating a commitment to maintaining high levels of investment [3]. Dividend Policy - CNOOC maintained a strong dividend policy, with total cash dividends of 61.621 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 45% [4]. - The dividend yield for A-shares was 4.4% and for H-shares was 7.3%, with a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. Investment Outlook - CNOOC is expected to continue benefiting from new project launches, with projected net profits of 132.3 billion yuan, 136 billion yuan, and 140.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.78 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 2.95 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.3X, 9.0X, and 8.8X [5].

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported a revenue of 420.5 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.9 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of about 11% [1] Financial Performance - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 94.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 14% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter; the net profit for the quarter was about 21.3 billion yuan, down 19% year-on-year and 42% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The total dividend payout for 2024 is proposed at 1.4 HKD per share (including tax), with a total dividend payout ratio of approximately 45% [1] Production and Reserves - As of the end of 2024, CNOOC's net oil and gas production reached approximately 727 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, exceeding the initial target of 700-720 million barrels [1] - The company's net proven reserves reached 7.271 billion barrels of oil equivalent, also up by about 7.2% year-on-year, with a reserve life stable at 10 years and a replacement ratio of approximately 167% [1] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - CNOOC's capital expenditure for the reporting period was 132.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 2%, with capital expenditure intensity growing nearly threefold since 2016, at a compound annual growth rate of over 13% [2] - Over the past two years (2022 and 2023), the total cash dividends paid by the company exceeded 163.4 billion yuan, ranking fourth in A-shares and first in the oil and petrochemical sector [2] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the years 2025-2027, subject to shareholder approval [2] Cost Control and Growth - CNOOC has achieved a net production growth of approximately 77% from 2013 to the end of 2024, while the main cost per barrel of oil has decreased by about 37%, demonstrating strong cost control capabilities [2] - The company's oil and gas reserves have increased by over 64% from 2013 to the end of 2024, providing a solid foundation for sustained production growth [2] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a clear growth trajectory with high dividend payouts, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 137.6 billion, 134.2 billion, and 139.6 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company, with current prices at 8.08 CNY and 6.16 HKD respectively [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders of 164.7 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.02% [5][6]. - The report highlights the company's integrated industry chain as a key factor in withstanding oil price fluctuations, with a free cash flow of 104.35 billion CNY for three consecutive years exceeding 100 billion CNY [6][17]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 2,938 billion CNY, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year, while the fourth quarter revenue was 681.7 billion CNY, down 6.70% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the average Brent crude oil price was 79.86 USD/barrel, down 2.8% year-on-year, while the fourth quarter average was 74.01 USD/barrel, down 10.7% year-on-year [6]. - The company’s upstream business benefited from ongoing "increased reserves and production" initiatives, achieving an operating profit of 159.7 billion CNY, up 7.4% year-on-year [7][8]. - The natural gas sales business saw a significant profit increase of 25.5% year-on-year, reaching 54 billion CNY [10]. Segment Analysis - The refining and chemical segment reported an operating profit of 21.4 billion CNY, down 42.1% year-on-year, primarily due to narrowing margins on refined products [11]. - The company processed 1,378.4 million barrels of crude oil in 2024, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, while chemical product sales volume increased by 13.6% [12][13]. Shareholder Returns - The board proposed a final dividend of 0.25 CNY per share, with an annual dividend of 0.47 CNY per share, resulting in a payout ratio of 52.2% [14]. - The total dividend amount is approximately 86.02 billion CNY, with dividend yields of 5.8% for A-shares and 8.2% for H-shares based on the stock price as of March 28 [14]. Long-term Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 173 billion CNY, 178.4 billion CNY, and 182.9 billion CNY respectively, with a continued focus on the potential of the "increased reserves and production" strategy and long-term growth in the natural gas sector [17][18].

2025 年 3 月 30 日 公司研究 24 年归母净利润大涨 11%，产储量再创历史新高 ——中国海油（600938.SH）2024 年报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：25.79 元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 475.30 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 12257.97 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 23.71/34.17 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 5.07% | 股价相对走势 -10% -1% 8% 17% 26% 03/24 06/24 09/24 12/24 03/25 中国海油 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Despite a decline in oil prices, CNOOC achieved steady growth in 2024, with total revenue of CNY 420.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 137.94 billion, up 11.38% year-on-year [1][2] - The company maintained a lower decline in oil prices compared to Brent crude, with an average realized oil price of USD 76.75 per barrel, down 1.55% year-on-year, and a gas price of USD 7.72 per thousand cubic feet, down 3.26% year-on-year [5][8] - CNOOC's net production of oil and gas reached 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 7.20%, indicating continued production growth [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, CNOOC reported revenue of CNY 94.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.94%, and a net profit of CNY 21.28 billion, down 18.78% year-on-year [2][3] - For the full year 2024, the company achieved a basic earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 2.90, an increase of 11.54% year-on-year [1][3] Production and Costs - CNOOC's oil and gas production growth slowed in Q4, with a total production increase of 3.48% year-on-year and 2.78% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The company's oil cost per barrel increased to USD 29.64, reflecting seasonal cost increases due to maintenance and operational workload [3][8] Capital Expenditure and Dividends - CNOOC's capital expenditure for 2024 was CNY 132.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.24%, with a commitment to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for 2025-2027 [8] - The company paid a total dividend of HKD 1.4 per share in 2024, with a dividend yield of 4.89% for A shares and 7.49% for H shares [8] Future Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is CNY 136.44 billion, CNY 142.24 billion, and CNY 149.78 billion, with expected growth rates of -1.1%, 4.3%, and 5.3% respectively [8] - CNOOC aims for stable production growth targets of 760-780 million barrels in 2025, 780-800 million barrels in 2026, and 810-830 million barrels in 2027 [5][6]