炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在2026节点增长大会的活动现场，中关村龙门投资董事长、昆仑学堂联合创始人、清华大学教授徐井宏面对满场创业者与投资人，带来了一场关于"穿越 周期"的深度分享。从宏观经济与周期本质，到人类未来三大走向，再到创业者的核心素养，这位深耕创投领域30年的"老兵"，用朴实却深刻的洞察，拆 解了当下的迷茫与未来的机遇。 "人类社会自有史以来，从未有一天像今天这样物质丰富、科技发达。"徐井宏开篇便抛出一个矛盾的现实：想吃啥有啥、想去哪去哪，科技几乎能满足所 有需求，但现场调研显示，仅十分之一的人对2025年感到"特别满意"，三分之一觉得"还凑合"，剩下的都陷入了"没劲""困惑"的情绪中。 他给出的答案，藏在"期待感"里："人们是带着对'明天会更好'的憧憬。"过去几十年，中国经济的高速增长（曾达百分之十几）让所有人习惯了"向上 走"的节奏。 徐井宏说道，现在正处于收缩向复苏过渡的阶段，"今年资本市场、消费市场已略有抬头趋势，挺过这一段，活下来的人就能抓住新机会"。 谈及穿越周期的核心能力，徐井宏提炼出未来企业必须具备的三项能力，简洁却直指本质： 深耕主 ...

来源：观点地产网 观点网讯：1月4日，刚退休的沃伦·巴菲特首次接受CNBC专访，确认格雷格·阿贝尔已全面接管伯克希 尔·哈撒韦决策权，并断言公司"极可能100年后仍在运营"。1月1日，巴菲特正式结束60年CEO生涯，将 职位交予阿贝尔，首个交易日伯克希尔股价下跌1.4%，市值缩水约40亿美元。 尽管2025年5月官宣退休后伯克希尔累计跑输标普500约3个百分点，部分投资者质疑新管理层能否维持 投资溢价，巴菲特仍强调集团多元业务与资本文化足以穿越周期，自己未来仅以董事身份列席股东大 会，不再登台发言。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 巴菲特在访谈中盛赞阿贝尔效率："他一周能办成的事，我花一个月都未必能做到。"并表示愿将个人资 金托付其管理。 ...

记者丨李振 编辑丨蒋韵 谈及广东，人们总是最先想到"经济第一大省"的标签。作为经济总量占全国比重长期保持在10%以上的省份，广东是全国经济当之 无愧的"领头羊"。 看总量，广东GDP连续36年居全国首位，也是首个突破14万亿元的省份；看增量，广东GDP自2019年起接连跨越10万亿元、11万亿 元、12万亿元、13万亿元、14万亿元五道大关。 一个较为客观的评价：经济体量大，意味着高速增长的难度也更大，"经济增长的每一个点都来之不易"。对广东而言，增长不仅比 过去难，也比其他省份难。 但越是在新旧动能交替的关键阶段，越能催生出一种穿越周期的能力。作为经济大省，广东当仁不让地担负起为全国发展大局挑大 梁的重任，在很长一段时间以来，凭借完整产业链构成的"超级生态"、1.5亿实时人口支撑的"超级市场"、千行百业融合催生的"超级 场景"，拼出了一个基础稳、结构优、活力足、潜力大的基本面，奠定了穿越周期的信心与底气。 穿越周期的广东"进化论" 长期以来，传统产业撑起了广东经济的高速增长奇迹。 广东十大战略性支柱产业集群中有6个属于传统产业范畴，汽车家电、石化纺织、钢铁建材、机械等占规模以上制造业增加值比重超 七成，利税 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for investors in a volatile market environment, emphasizing the need for a balance between idealism and cautious rebalancing [2][3] - A roundtable dialogue at the "2025 Asset Management Summit" aimed to address these challenges and explore future trends in investment strategies [2] Group 1: Market Perspectives - Key themes for 2025 include confidence, value resonance, rebalancing, and the concept of "hubification" in asset management [4][5] - Confidence is highlighted as a crucial element in the market, with one expert stating that "confidence is more important than gold" [4] - The idea of rebalancing encompasses not only the expected returns of stocks and bonds but also the structure of long-term funding sources and household assets [4] Group 2: Strategies for Navigating Cycles - Experts shared their principles for navigating market cycles, emphasizing the importance of trend allocation, risk avoidance, and the construction of resilient investment systems [5][6] - One expert proposed a twelve-character guideline: "allocate trends, trade cycles, avoid risks," focusing on the need to leverage economic growth potential while managing market volatility [5] - Another expert stressed the importance of diversification, strict risk control, and disciplined rebalancing to withstand market shocks [6] Group 3: Integration of Active and Quantitative Investment - The discussion highlighted the trend of integrating active investment with quantitative methods, driven by the need for improved decision-making efficiency in a fast-paced market [7] - One expert noted that the efficiency of market pricing has increased, necessitating the use of models and algorithms in active investment strategies [7] - The shift from reliance on star fund managers to a more systematic approach was emphasized, with a focus on understanding macroeconomic trends [7] Group 4: Impact of Artificial Intelligence - The panelists expressed a cautious yet optimistic view on the role of artificial intelligence in investment, recognizing its potential to transform decision-making processes [8] - AI is seen as a powerful tool for enhancing investment models, but experts warned against over-reliance on opaque algorithms [8] - Collaboration with advanced AI-driven investment firms was suggested as a way for asset management institutions to leverage AI capabilities [8] Group 5: Changes in Investor Behavior - The article notes a shift in investor behavior towards more rational decision-making, with a greater focus on asset allocation and the stability of management institutions [9][10] - There is a growing trend towards products that accept some volatility for higher returns, reflecting a more nuanced risk appetite among investors [10] - The categorization of investors into three distinct groups based on their experiences and knowledge highlights a significant change in market dynamics [10]

Core Insights - The forum focused on the theme "Asset Management Towards Excellence: Smartly Initiating a New Journey," discussing global asset management market trends and high-quality development paths [2] - Three core transformations are reshaping China's 210 trillion yuan asset management industry: continuous improvement of regulatory frameworks, deep restructuring of asset structures, and increasingly rational investor behavior [2][5] Group 1: Regulatory and Market Environment - Continuous improvement of regulatory frameworks is expected to lay a solid institutional foundation for high-quality development in the next decade [2] - The scarcity of quality assets is being revalued by the market, indicating a shift in asset structure [2] - The stability of the renminbi and the diversity of asset types in China are advantageous for global investors seeking diversified asset allocation and risk dispersion [5] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Market Dynamics - The long-term outlook for China's capital market is positive, but short-term volatility risks must be monitored [7] - Future core asset allocation directions include self-controlled and trendy consumption, mergers and acquisitions of leading enterprises, innovation in traditional industries, and the relocation of quality enterprises [7] - The complexity of the macro environment is increasing, creating both opportunities and higher demands for the asset management industry's transformation and high-quality development [8] Group 3: Wealth Management and Asset Allocation - Wealth management demand is evolving towards diversification and personalization, prompting changes in the asset management industry's value chain and business models [13] - The definition of "stability" in wealth management is being re-evaluated, with different institutions having varying focuses on absolute and relative returns [16] - Effective asset allocation strategies should include a comprehensive analysis of asset classes and correlation, avoiding reliance on single strategies to mitigate extreme risks [17] Group 4: Technological Impact and Future Outlook - The integration of active and quantitative investment strategies is essential in the fast-paced information environment, requiring systematic approaches to keep up with market pricing [12] - Artificial intelligence is recognized as a significant tool in investment but should be applied cautiously to avoid over-reliance and loss of process control [12] - The forum concluded with a consensus on the need for the asset management industry to inject long-term growth confidence into the market and contribute to high-quality economic development [17]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the challenges of navigating through economic cycles and highlights the importance of trend allocation, trading cycles, and risk avoidance in investment strategies [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - It is essential to allocate resources based on favorable industry trends, economic growth potential, and the continuous growth trajectory of high-quality companies [1] - The market experiences different phases of volatility, and investors should leverage these cycles effectively [1] Group 2: Risk Management - Risk avoidance is considered a fundamental principle, especially during extreme market conditions [1] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a rational and calm approach to seize future market opportunities, prioritizing preservation of capital before seeking profits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of 汇川技术 (Inovance Technology) from a leader in industrial control to a dual leader in both industrial control and automation, highlighting its resilience through economic cycles [4]. Group 1 - In 2016, it was predicted that 汇川技术 could become a great enterprise capable of navigating through economic cycles [4]. - The company has successfully transitioned from being known solely for industrial control to excelling in both industrial control and automation, referred to as "双王并进" [4].

Core Insights - The essence of the cyclical nature of industries and companies is highlighted, emphasizing that every industry experiences cycles of excess and competition, and companies either thrive or perish within these cycles [1] Group 1: Historical Development - From 1995 to 1999, the company was founded during a challenging period in the coking industry, establishing its first demonstration project and adopting innovative operational strategies to gain a competitive edge [2] - Between 2000 and 2009, the company expanded rapidly, becoming the largest independent coke producer globally, with revenues increasing from 0 to 141 billion yuan, a 501-fold growth [3] - From 2010 to 2021, the company faced price declines but adapted through transformation and strategic acquisitions, achieving a revenue of 81 billion yuan in 2021, a 473% increase from 2009 [4] Group 2: Future Strategy - From 2022 to 2025, the company aims to build a global presence, with significant investments in Indonesia and the establishment of overseas subsidiaries, enhancing its market reach and operational capabilities [5][6] - The company plans to leverage its experience and capabilities to create a globally recognized "industry + service" group, focusing on enhancing its leadership in the coking and chemical industries while pursuing low-carbon transitions [7][8] - The company is committed to a comprehensive digital transformation, aiming to integrate its operations and enhance efficiency through advanced technologies and management practices [9] Group 3: Social Responsibility and Sustainability - The company is dedicated to achieving carbon neutrality and promoting low-carbon production practices, positioning itself as a global leader in green energy and chemical production [9][10]

Core Insights - The essence of any industry is cyclical, competitive, and prone to excess, as articulated by Yang Xuegang, Chairman of Xuyang Group, reflecting the company's journey over 30 years [1] Group 1: Historical Development - From 1995 to 1999, Xuyang was established during a challenging period in the coking industry, pioneering the first coking project in Hebei and significantly reducing production costs through innovative strategies [2] - Between 2000 and 2009, Xuyang capitalized on the industrialization wave in China, becoming the largest independent coking producer globally, with revenues soaring to 14.1 billion yuan, a 501-fold increase from 1999 [3] - From 2010 to 2021, Xuyang faced price declines but adapted through transformation and innovation, achieving a revenue of 81 billion yuan in 2021, a 473% increase from 2009 [4] Group 2: Future Strategy - From 2022 to 2025, Xuyang is focusing on global expansion, with significant projects in Indonesia and the establishment of a comprehensive supply network across multiple countries [5][6] - The company aims to enhance its competitive edge by integrating various business segments, including coking, chemicals, hydrogen energy, and new materials, while transitioning to an innovation-driven model [6] - Xuyang's future plans include a seventh five-year development plan (2026-2030) to solidify its position as a global leader in the "industry + service" model, emphasizing digital transformation and low-carbon initiatives [7][8] Group 3: Operational and Financial Management - Xuyang is committed to optimizing its operational management through the "Xuyang Cloud" platform, enhancing efficiency across the entire supply chain [8] - The company is focused on improving its financial health by managing cash flow effectively and maintaining a robust asset-liability structure [9] - Xuyang aims to fulfill its social responsibility by promoting low-carbon production and contributing to global industrial upgrades [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The two-wheeled electric vehicle industry in China is undergoing technological upgrades and market restructuring, driven by policy support, with leading companies like Yadea Holdings gaining significant market share and profit margins [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The new national standard is a core policy driving sales growth and industry concentration in the electric two-wheeler sector [1] - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated market demand, confirming the logic of industry acceleration [1] - The Hong Kong stock market is favoring brands with "through-cycle" characteristics, with Yadea Holdings being a prime example due to its resilient performance and strategic initiatives [1] Group 2: Company Positioning - Yadea has a strong industry leadership position, with cumulative global sales exceeding 100 million units and maintaining the number one market share for eight consecutive years [2][4] - The company's scale advantage enhances its supply chain management capabilities, reinforcing profit resilience and enabling it to capitalize on policy benefits [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Yadea achieved revenue of 19.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%, and a net profit of 1.65 billion yuan, up 59.5% [5] Group 4: Technological Innovation - Yadea has invested over 5.93 billion yuan in R&D since its listing in 2016, leading the industry and driving technological competition [7] - The company holds over 2,000 patents and continues to innovate in core technologies, creating a strong technological ecosystem that raises barriers for competitors [8] Group 5: Global Expansion - Yadea's global strategy focuses on integrated research, production, supply, sales, and service, allowing for refined overseas expansion [9] - The company has established ten smart production and research bases globally, exporting products to over 100 countries and regions [11] Group 6: Brand and Service Strategy - Yadea emphasizes brand emotional connection and quality service, shifting the competitive landscape from purely technical specifications to user experience [12] - The company has built a global network of over 40,000 service outlets, enhancing its service response mechanisms and focusing on user-centric brand missions [16] Group 7: Market Leadership - Yadea maintains a leading market share of 26.3% and a domestic sales growth rate of 41.1%, significantly outperforming the industry average [17] - The company's ability to convert policy benefits, technological advancements, and overseas production into quantifiable growth momentum is expected to enhance market expectations for its future value growth [17]