Core Viewpoint - The production service industry has five strategic functions that are crucial for economic development and should be given high importance [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Functions of Production Service Industry - The production service industry is a growth driver for GDP and often becomes the largest sector in developed economies [1]. - It serves as the driving force for high-quality development in manufacturing and is the largest sector for unicorn companies globally [1]. - The production service industry is a growth engine for service trade, with insufficient development in China leading to a reliance on imported production services [1]. - It forms the basis for high added value in products, as seen in the example of a smartphone where a significant portion of the price is derived from production services [2]. - The production service industry is essential for the development of total factor productivity, requiring knowledge and talent-intensive inputs [2]. Group 2: Current Status and Future Goals - Despite significant achievements in manufacturing, China lags in the production service industry, reflected in five weak indicators: low GDP share, low service trade share, low manufacturing profit margins, low proportion of unicorns, and low total factor productivity [3]. - The goal for the period from 2021 to 2040 is to address these weaknesses by focusing on the development of the production service industry to promote high-quality manufacturing and the healthy development of new productivity [3].

Core Insights - The production service industry is a crucial growth engine for global GDP and should be prioritized for development [1][2][14] - China has achieved over 30% of global manufacturing output, leading in several key sectors while still lagging in the development of the production service industry [2][15][18] Group 1: Strategic Functions of Production Service Industry - The production service industry enhances the quality and efficiency of manufacturing, serving as the largest growth segment of GDP [1][7] - It acts as a driving force for high-quality development in manufacturing and is a significant contributor to the emergence of unicorn companies [9][11] - The industry is a key component of service trade, with China's service trade share being significantly lower than the global average [11][12] - It underpins high value-added products, with substantial contributions to the profit margins of manufactured goods [12][13] - The production service industry is essential for improving total factor productivity, which is currently lower in China compared to developed economies [13][18] Group 2: Current State and Future Projections - China's production service industry accounts for approximately 27% to 28% of GDP, which is lower than the 40% to 50% range seen in developed countries [18][20] - The industry is projected to grow to 35% of GDP by 2040 and 40% by 2050, while manufacturing is expected to maintain a share of around 25% [2][20] - The manufacturing sector has transitioned from "catching up" to "leading" in several areas, yet the production service sector remains a notable shortcoming [15][18] - The current profit margins in China's manufacturing sector are lower than those in developed countries, indicating a need for improvement in the production service industry [18][19]

Group 1 - The 2025 Beike Finance Annual Conference opened with the theme "China's Economy: Co-Growth of Openness and Resilience" [2] - The conference featured discussions on the importance of production service industries in driving new productive forces and technological innovation [8][9] - The launch of the "Technology Capital Co-Innovation Plan" by Beike Finance aims to foster collaboration between technology and capital [16] Group 2 - Reports released at the conference highlighted the increasing deployment of AI applications in businesses, with 89.84% of surveyed companies utilizing AI in various operational aspects [16][17] - The "Haidian is the 'Source' Report" outlines Haidian District's role as a global AI innovation hub, emphasizing talent density and institutional innovation [16] - The second edition of the "China AI Large Model Evaluation Report" indicates a 22.9 percentage point increase in media professionals using large models, with significant potential for efficiency improvements [17]

Economic Overview - China's economy has consistently crossed significant milestones, reaching an estimated GDP of around 140 trillion yuan in 2023, with an increment of over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to the combined GDP of Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong provinces [2] - The average economic growth rate over the past four years has been 5.5%, with China contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [2] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand has played a crucial role, contributing an average of 86.4% to economic growth over the past four years [3] - Final consumption's contribution to economic growth averaged 56.2%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the previous five-year period [3] Investment Contributions - Capital formation from investments contributed an average of 30.2% to economic growth over the past four years [4] - Significant investments in high-tech industries and infrastructure have been made, with approximately 780,000 affordable housing units constructed, addressing housing issues for over 20 million people [4] Innovation and High-Tech Development - China is transitioning from a global manufacturing hub to a global innovation center, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 42% and digital economy core industries growing by 73.8% [5] - R&D expenditure reached 3.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.68% of GDP, with enterprises contributing over 77% of this investment [5] Service Sector and Productivity - The development of the productive service sector is closely linked to improvements in production efficiency and value [6] - There is a focus on enhancing the share of productive services in GDP from 27%-30% to 35% during the next five-year period, which is expected to lead to a more rational industrial structure [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a growth rate above 5% in the first half of 2024, demonstrating resilience despite external uncertainties and internal challenges [1][2][4]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2024, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2][4]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in May 2024 increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth since 2024 [1][3]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales for the first five months of 2024 was 5% [3]. External Trade - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in the first five months was 1.3%, with exports growing by 6% [2]. - Factors contributing to export growth include increased non-U.S. exports, "export grabbing" effects, and "price-for-volume" strategies in U.S. exports [2][4]. Consumer Policies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted retail sales, with furniture, communication, and home appliance retail sales growing over 20% [3]. - In 2024, the central and local governments allocated approximately 170 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy, expected to raise retail sales growth by over 1 percentage point [3]. Investment and Consumption Outlook - There is a need to stimulate both consumption and investment in high-tech sectors and productive services [5]. - The focus should be on stabilizing domestic consumption and investment, with an emphasis on the real estate market and capital market stability [5]. Structural Reforms - The current economic strategy emphasizes the need to shift from investment and export-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth [6][7]. - Reforms in fiscal and tax systems are necessary to enhance local governments' incentives to boost consumption [7]. Monetary Policy - There is still room to lower the reserve requirement ratio, and stabilizing asset prices should be included in monetary policy considerations [7].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a modern agricultural product circulation system centered in Zhuhai marks a significant step towards enhancing the efficiency and modernization of agricultural product distribution in the Pearl River West region and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [1][2]. Group 1: Agreements and Collaborations - Multiple strategic cooperation agreements were signed, including a framework agreement for the construction of the Zhuhai West Agricultural Product Circulation System and the establishment of the Greater Bay Area Agricultural Product Supply Guarantee Fund [1]. - Key stakeholders involved in the agreements include Zhuhai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Shenzhen Agricultural Investment Group, and various agricultural state-owned enterprises from the region [1][2]. Group 2: Modernization and Transformation - The modernization of the agricultural product circulation system is viewed as a profound transformation of the productive service industry, shifting Zhuhai's role from a "production base" to a "circulation hub" within the Greater Bay Area [2][4]. - The construction of the circulation system aims to integrate agriculture with food processing, logistics, and e-commerce, thereby forming a more complete industrial chain and enhancing the agricultural value chain [2][4]. Group 3: Technological Integration - The new circulation system will leverage technologies such as IoT, big data, and artificial intelligence to create a digital, intelligent, and green agricultural product circulation framework [4][6]. - The model proposed includes a core hub market, production distribution centers, and diverse sales terminals to improve the last-mile service of agricultural product distribution [4][5][6]. Group 4: Financial Support and Investment - The Guangdong Provincial Agricultural Fund, in collaboration with other entities, has initiated the Greater Bay Area Agricultural Product Supply Guarantee Fund to support the construction of the circulation system [8]. - The total investment for the Zhuhai West Agricultural Product Logistics Trading Center project exceeds 2.6 billion yuan, with an expected annual transaction volume of over 4 million tons and a transaction value exceeding 20 billion yuan [9]. Group 5: Regional Impact and Goals - The establishment of the circulation system is expected to significantly enhance the supply guarantee capabilities of the Greater Bay Area's agricultural product supply chain, addressing the growing demand for high-quality agricultural products [9]. - The project aims to fill the gap in comprehensive agricultural product circulation hubs in the Pearl River West region, thereby improving regional agricultural distribution and cold chain capabilities [9].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Experts believe that the foreign trade environment remains uncertain in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand as the core policy direction to cultivate more growth momentum and endogenous power [1][5] - The cumulative GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is likely to reach around 5.2%, supported by consumption [1][5] Group 2: Consumption Policies - Suggestions include optimizing holiday arrangements, such as increasing holidays in the second half of the year and implementing paid leave systems to boost service consumption recovery [2][6] - The government has allocated a total of 162 billion yuan in central funds to support the "old-for-new" consumption policy, with an additional 138 billion yuan expected to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters [6] Group 3: Income and Consumption Dynamics - Improving residents' disposable income is crucial for transforming consumption into a new economic engine, with a focus on increasing the proportions of fiscal spending on public services, residents' consumption in total demand, and disposable income in the national economy [9][10] - Wage income constitutes a significant portion of residents' disposable income, and enhancing wage growth is essential for sustained income improvement [9][10] Group 4: Service Consumption Potential - The service retail sector showed a growth rate of 5.0% in the first quarter, indicating the potential for service consumption to be a key driver for boosting overall consumption [11] - The Ministry of Commerce has proposed 48 measures to enhance service consumption, covering various sectors such as dining, tourism, and new business models [11] Group 5: Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is identified as a key area for development, with a focus on nurturing leading enterprises similar to Huawei and Apple [12][13] - The productive service sector is projected to grow from 27% in previous years to 31% in 2024, highlighting its importance in the modern economy [12][13]

Group 1 - The forum focused on the theme of "Steady Navigation of China's Macroeconomy," with various experts sharing their insights [1] - Huang Qifan emphasized the importance of productive services in enhancing manufacturing efficiency and technological progress, highlighting its role across the entire industrial chain [2] - The CMF report suggested increasing economic growth momentum and improving the channels for economic benefits to reach the public, with specific directions including structural transformation from manufacturing to services and urbanization potential [2]

作 者丨周潇枭 编 辑丨季媛媛 图 源| 2 1世纪经济报道 6月21日，中国人民大学中国宏观经济论坛（CMF）2025年中期论坛在京举行，本期论坛聚 焦"稳舵远航的中国宏观经济"。 重庆市原市长黄奇帆在论坛上发言表示，未来五年的"十五五"期间，中国经济进入到全力推 动新质生产力发展的阶段。抓好新质生产力，从增量上，要抓好中央提出的15个战略新兴和 未来产业；从存量上，就是现在100多亿工业制造业产值，要着力抓好绿色、低碳化和数字智 能化的发展，用绿色低碳和数字智能赋能融合到存量的生产力体系。在服务业方面，要着力 抓好生产性服务业。生产性服务业有十个大类，分别是技术开发和创新、物流配套服务、金 融服务、检验检测认证服务、绿色低碳服务、数字化服务、销售和售后服务、品牌广告和知 识产权服务、会计和法律等专业咨询服务、人才培养和管理服务等。 黄奇帆表示，生产性服务业不仅是制造业高科技发展的温床、土壤，也是新质生产力发展的 温床、土壤。生产性服务业还自带光环，直接就是GDP的增长极、独角兽的主要板块，是服 务贸易发展的基础，是高端装备附加值最主要的来源，是全要素生产率的组成部分。 "中国的生产性服务业，前两年的数据是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum emphasizes the need for a stable economic environment in China, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the production service industry as key drivers for economic growth [1][3][10]. Group 1: Production Service Industry - The production service industry is crucial for improving manufacturing efficiency and technological advancement, spanning the entire industrial chain [3]. - There is a call to elevate the share of the production service industry from 27%-28% to 35% over the next decade, which would contribute to a more rational industrial structure and high-quality development [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Stability - The current economic landscape faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand and low prices, necessitating a rich toolbox of monetary policy to support stable economic growth [4][6]. - The establishment of a digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai is part of the strategy to enhance monetary policy tools [6]. Group 3: International Competition and Foreign Investment - The international competitive landscape has shifted from vertical to horizontal division, with increased competition from domestic firms leading to the exit of some foreign companies [7][9]. - There is a recognition of the need to improve the investment environment to attract foreign investment, despite the challenges posed by the changing competitive dynamics [8]. Group 4: Domestic Demand Expansion - The need to address the shortfall in domestic consumption is highlighted, with a focus on increasing residents' income and enhancing service consumption [11]. - Policies should ensure that fiscal spending growth outpaces nominal GDP growth to effectively stimulate total demand [11]. Group 5: Stabilizing Enterprises - Stabilizing enterprises is deemed essential for achieving broader economic stability, with recommendations for improving business conditions and market environments [12][14]. - Enhancing enterprise vitality through property rights protection and reducing administrative monopolies is crucial for fostering a competitive market [14].