免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2277 | 13 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -61 | 2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 819092 | 19448 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -90317 | 3480 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 4600 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2310 | 10 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 18 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol has a rebound momentum due to the recent rebound of oil prices and coal, and the impact of maritime new regulations on methanol unloading. However, the upward momentum of methanol is insufficient. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, but it is relatively cheap compared to downstream polyolefins, and there is room for valuation repair. From a driving perspective, after the weakening of macro - impact, methanol returns to its own fundamental pricing. The supply of imports and inland supply recovers quickly, while the demand side has limited room for further improvement, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern and insufficient upward momentum for methanol [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices: MA01 increased from 2327.00 yuan/ton to 2319.00 yuan/ton, up 0.34%; MA05 increased from 2270.00 yuan/ton to 2263.00 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; MA09 increased from 2264.00 yuan/ton to 2259.00 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [1] - Methanol spot prices: In some regions like Guangdong, it increased by 0.11% (from 2292.50 yuan/ton to 2295.00 yuan/ton), and in Hubei, it increased by 0.23% (from 2220.00 yuan/ton to 2225.00 yuan/ton). While in regions such as Shandong, Shaanxi, etc., there was no change [1] - The difference between Taicang spot and MA decreased by 10.50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal spot prices: There was no change in the prices of Ordos Q5500 (425.00 yuan/ton), Datong Q5500 (470.00 yuan/ton), and Yulin Q6000 (480.00 yuan/ton) [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: There was no change in the prices in Hohhot (3.94 yuan/cubic meter) and Chongqing (3.30 yuan/cubic meter) [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 299.70 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 600.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream profit: The profit of Northwest MTO increased by 1.73% (from 577.60 yuan/ton to 587.60 yuan/ton), while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 5.23% (from - 477.57 yuan/ton to - 502.57 yuan/ton). The profit of MTBE increased by 14.36% (from 221.52 yuan/ton to 253.32 yuan/ton), and the profit of acetic acid decreased by 0.53% (from 515.45 yuan/ton to 512.70 yuan/ton) [1] 4. News and Information - Abroad: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. Attention should be paid to the recent natural gas supply [1] - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2269 yuan/ton, closing at 2264 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 607,691 lots and a position of 7,996,440. It was a trading day with volume reduction and position reduction [1]

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The port continued to accumulate inventory this week due to limited overseas plant maintenance and increased arrival pressure. The inventory accumulation rate in the future needs attention. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol production remains at a high level, and the inventory of inland factories continued to rise this week. The low operation rate of MTBE in traditional downstream industries has dragged down the inland demand. Although the methanol production profit has declined, it is still higher than the same period last year [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 futures contracts) [7][9][21]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][30]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [33][35]. 4. Regional Price Differences It shows various regional price differences, like the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [2][37][46]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits The report includes the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [43][53]. Market Data - **Inland Market**: The price of Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged). The production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 580 yuan/ton (+13). The prices of methanol in different inland regions have increased to varying degrees. The inventory of inland factories and the volume of pending orders have both increased. For example, the inventory of inland factories is 370,490 tons (+15,540), and the pending orders of inland factories are 262,180 tons (+12,288) [1]. - **Port Market**: The price of methanol in Taicang is 2302 yuan/ton (+27), and the port inventory has increased significantly. The total port inventory is 581,200 tons (+58,240). The downstream MTO operation rate is 85.19% (+1.37%). There are also changes in regional price differences [2]. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously short - sell for hedging [4].

行业 甲醇日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业 ...

| | | | 甲醇日评20250604:短期反弹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 单位 | | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/30 | 变化值 | 要你值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 元/吨 | | 2289.00 | 2275.00 | 14.00 | 0.62% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 元/吨 | | 2231.00 | 2217.00 | 14.00 | 0.63% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 元/吨 | | 2225.00 | 2208.00 | 17.00 | 0.77% | | | | 元/吨 太仓 | | 2262.50 | 2242.50 | 20.00 | 0.89% | | | | 山东 元/吨 | | 2150.00 | 2150.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 元/吨 | | 2270.00 | 2267.50 | 2.50 | 0.11% | | 及其差 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report suggests that due to the increase in holiday overseas oil prices caused by intensified geopolitical conflicts, methanol is expected to open higher and may have a short - term rebound. However, it lacks upward momentum in the long run. From a valuation perspective, methanol is not cheap compared to upstream coal, and cost collapse still weighs heavily on coal - chemical products. But it is relatively inexpensive compared to downstream polyalkanes, and there is room for valuation repair. In terms of driving factors, after the weakening of macro - impacts, methanol is priced based on its fundamentals. Supply, including imports and inland supply, has rebounded rapidly, while demand has limited room for further growth, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation and insufficient upward momentum. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.61%) to 2275 yuan/ton; MA05 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.67%) to 2217 yuan/ton; MA09 decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.45%) to 2208 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 2242.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 2150 yuan/ton; the price in Guangdong increased by 2.5 yuan/ton (0.11%) to 2267.5 yuan/ton; the price in Shaanxi remained unchanged at 1955 yuan/ton; the price in Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged at 2210 yuan/ton; the price in Hubei remained unchanged at 2245 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton (-0.27%) to 1880 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased by 26.5 to - 32.5 [1]. - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: Coal and natural gas prices remained unchanged, including Ordos Q5500 at 425 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 at 470 yuan/ton, Yulin Q6000 at 492.5 yuan/ton, industrial natural gas in Hohhot at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter, and in Chongqing at 3.30 yuan/cubic meter [1]. - **Methanol Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit remained unchanged at 309.7 yuan/ton; natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 520 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit remained unchanged at 619 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 26.5 yuan/ton (-11.06%) to - 266.07 yuan/ton; acetic acid profit decreased by 2.75 yuan/ton (-0.46%) to 595.43 yuan/ton; MTBE profit decreased by 30 yuan/ton (-9.44%) to 287.76 yuan/ton; formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at - 181.20 yuan/ton [1]. b. Important Information - **Domestic Futures**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2220 yuan/ton, closing at 2208 yuan/ton, rising 7 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 701,459 lots and an open interest of 824,339 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - future is 251 - 256 US dollars/ton, with a lack of active bids and offers. The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 1.3 - 1.6% compared to the previous period, and there were no reported real - deal transactions within the week. For other Middle - Eastern regions, the reference negotiation price of shipments arriving in the far - future increased by 0.5 - 1.1%, and methanol factories in other Middle - Eastern regions intended to set higher prices for product sales. Attention should be paid to the latest methanol tender results and shipping capacity of some factories in other Middle - Eastern regions [1]. c. Trading Strategy - It is expected that the increase in overseas oil prices during the holiday will drive methanol to open higher and may lead to a short - term rebound. However, methanol lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the rebound [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-03甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：内地方面，前期下跌过程中贸易商和下游采购意愿较差，部分产区工厂处于累库状态，且煤制甲醇利润丰 厚下周初上游主动大幅让利刺激出货为主，看空后市情绪下，长协贸易商出货意愿强烈且有做空行为。而鲁北下游 MTBE开工维持低位，周内采购也有减少，下游也顺势压价，上半周销区同步走跌。但随着产销区甲醇价格跌破近一年 来最低点，底部空间下贸易商持货意愿增强以及部分补空单需求下，下半周内地甲醇行情逐止跌回稳。港口方面，亦是 呈现先跌后稳走势，上半周供需面表现偏弱下，期现货价格同步下行，基差亦有走弱，随着美国联邦法院暂停关税政策 ...

| 甲醇日评20250530: 向上动力不足, 偏弱震荡为主 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 2025/5/28 | 单位 | 2025/5/29 | 指标 | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2289.00 | 2279.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 0.45% | 2232.00 | 2222.00 | 10.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 2218.00 | 2206.00 | 元/吨 | 12.00 | 0.54% | | | | | 2230.00 | 2237.50 | -0.34% | 太仓 | 元/呼 | -7.50 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2150.00 | 2155.00 | -5.00 | -0.23% | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2265.00 | 2265.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Recent domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts involve more capacity output than the recovery, leading to a slight decrease in overall production [2]. - Last week, downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined, real - order trading volume decreased, and enterprise pending orders declined, while inland enterprise inventories continued to increase slightly [2]. - Last week, methanol port inventories increased slightly. In the East China region, the load of some downstream enterprises along the Yangtze River recovered, and other mainstream social warehouses had normal pick - up. In the South China region, the pick - up volume of mainstream warehouses was acceptable due to stable local and surrounding demand, and both imported and domestic trade supplies were replenished [2]. - The restart of ethylene plants in East China led to an increase in the operating rate of the methanol - to - olefins industry last week. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2260 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2224 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was - 69 yuan/ton, up 0.6757 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest was 805,879 lots, an increase of 15,591 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 144,747 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 5,997 [2]. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1970 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [2]. - The East - West price difference was 300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was 46 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 258 US dollars/ton, down 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 327 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 230 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 69 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.31 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 32.7 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 16.34 tons, an increase of 0.35 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit was 48.54 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 47.3 tons, a decrease of 8.88 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 38,400 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 87.04%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 50.8%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 9.52%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 91.07%, an increase of 1.36 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 55.35%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The operating rate of olefins was 83.82%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 543 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.73%, a decrease of 1.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.16%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 16.66%, a decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 16.65%, a decrease of 0.59 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of May 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 49.24 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 0.50 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 0.35 tons [2]. - As of May 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 33.60 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 0.07%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 3.52 tons, a decrease of 3.84 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 14.03% [2]. - As of May 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 83.84%, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. The restart of ethylene plants in East China led to an increase in the industry's operating rate [2].