2025年，中国发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，支持"两重""两新"(国家重大战略实施和重点领域安 全能力建设、大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新)，其中安排消费品以旧换新资金3000亿元。廖岷介 绍，2026年，将继续安排超长期特别国债，用于"两重"建设和"两新"工作。 中新社北京1月20日电 (记者 赵建华)今年中国继续实施更加积极的财政政策。中国财政部副部长廖 岷20日在北京介绍，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体支出力度"只 增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。同时，持续优化支出结构，确保资金用在紧要处。压减低效无效 支出，把更多的财政资金用在提振消费、"投资于人"、民生保障等方面，多渠道增加居民收入。 当天在国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上，廖岷介绍，更加积极的财政政策取向，为宏观经济顶压 前行、稳中有进提供了重要支撑。2025年，中国赤字率按4%左右安排、比上年提高1个百分点；新增政 府债务规模11.86万亿元(人民币，下同)，比上年增加2.9万亿元，远超前几年的平均水平。发行特别国 债5000亿元，用于补充国有大型商业银行核心一级资本；安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周二铁矿夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、力拓（Rio Tinto）发布四季度产销报告：四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石产量为 8970 | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 偏多 | 万吨，环比增加 6.66%，同比增加 3.70%。四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石发运量为 9130 | | | | | 万吨，环比增加 8.30%，同比增加 6.53%。 | | | | | 3、 1 月 12 日-1 月 18 日，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二螺纹热卷夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、财政部有关负责人介绍，2026 年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要 | | | | | 水平，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black (coking coal and coke) sector is "oscillating weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The double - coking (coking coal and coke) market is expected to be in a short - term weak trend. The market accelerated its decline yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1124.0, a 4.3% decline compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1673.5, a 2.76% decline compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1113.0, a 0.98% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1671.0, a 0.15% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and take promoting price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy, and regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued a notice on measures to support urban renewal, proposing a transitional policy for using existing land and real estate resources to develop supported industries without changing the land - use subject and planning conditions within a certain period [1] - As of the time of the report, the explosion accident at Baotou Steel's plate factory in Inner Mongolia has caused 9 deaths, and the status of 1 missing person is being further confirmed [1] - On January 20, the online auction price of coking coal in the Changzhi Qinyuan market increased. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1598 yuan/ton, with a transaction volume of 30,000 tons, a 19 - yuan increase compared to January 13 [1] Market Logic - The double - coking market accelerated its decline yesterday. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] Trading Strategy - The double - coking market accelerated its decline before the close of the day session yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. Coking coal is expected to show a short - term weak trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on increasing total expenditure while optimizing the structure and effectiveness of spending to support high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - In 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and overall expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending "only increases" and key areas are "only strengthened" [1]. - The proactive fiscal policy in 2025 has played a significant role in achieving economic and social development goals, balancing current needs with long-term sustainability [1][2]. Group 2: Budget and Expenditure - The national general public budget revenue is expected to show a recovery growth trend in 2025, with overall stability in budget execution [1]. - The general public budget expenditure will maintain strong intensity to provide necessary financial support for economic and social development, with expectations of achieving a balance between revenue and expenditure for the year [1]. Group 3: Structural Optimization - The focus will be on optimizing the expenditure structure, ensuring funds are allocated to critical areas, breaking the "base + growth" spending pattern, and applying zero-based budgeting principles [2]. - The fiscal department aims to support employment, businesses, markets, and expectations through robust financial backing [2]. Group 4: Policies to Stimulate Investment and Consumption - A comprehensive set of policies will be implemented to stimulate domestic demand, including optimizing personal consumption loan interest subsidies and extending support for service industry loans [2][3]. - The policies targeting private investment are expected to significantly reduce financing costs and enhance profitability for enterprises, thereby invigorating private investment [3]. - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy will be extended to the end of 2026, with improvements such as including credit card installment payments and raising subsidy standards [3].

财政部等部门1月20日还发布财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。其中，首次实施中小微企业贷款贴息政 策，覆盖新能源汽车、工业母机等14个"重点产业链及上下游产业"、生产性服务业领域，以及农林牧渔 相关领域。首次设立民间投资专项担保计划，通过国家融资担保基金专设担保计划5000亿元，分两年实 施。廖岷表示，几项政策同向发力将给企业带来直接利好。 廖岷：这次新设的中小微企业贷款贴息以及优化后的设备更新贷款贴息，都可以为企业提供贷款总额的 1.5个百分点贴息。在间接融资方面，设立了民间投资专项担保计划，这是一项新政策，提高了融资担 保额度、风险分担的比例和代偿上限，让银行敢贷、愿贷、多贷。 央广网北京1月21日消息（记者李思默）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，财政 部有关负责人1月20日表示，2026年，我国将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子。确保 总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 财政部副部长廖岷：把更多的财政资金用在提振消费、"投资于人"、民生保障等方面，多渠道增加居民 收入。2026年将继续安排超长期特别国债，用于"两重"建设和"两新"工作。 2026年，财政部门将 ...

财政政策是宏观调控的重要手段，通过预算、税收、政府债券、转移支付等工具组合，可以发挥扩 大总需求和定向调结构的双重优势，熨平经济周期性波动，落实国家重大决策部署，促进经济总量平衡 和结构优化。2025年中央经济工作会议提出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。2026年财政政策和2025 年财政政策取向一以贯之，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央审时度势、综合考量作出的重大决策部 署。我们要推动更加积极的财政政策精准增效，助力经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 更加积极的财政政策成效显著 2025年我国首次实施更加积极的财政政策，为推动完成全年经济社会发展目标任务发挥了重要作 用。通过筹集更加充分的财力，加大支出强度，加快支出进度，优化支出结构，财政政策效果显著。这 也为2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策提供了强有力支撑，积累了宝贵经验。 支出规模扩大。2025年全国一般公共预算支出规模29.7万亿元，比上年增加1.2万亿元，财政支出强 度明显加大，体现了财政政策的扩张性。财政赤字率从3%提高到4%左右，提高1个百分点，财政赤字 规模达5.66万亿元，比上年增加1.6万亿元，不仅财政可用财力增加，而且向社会发出政策 ...

一揽子政策同时发力 1月9日，国务院常务会议研究推出财政金融促内需一揽子政策。1月20日，财政部官网连发五项通知， 涉及系列贴息政策、民间投资专项担保计划。 在廖岷看来，一揽子政策可以概括为"一个目标""两个重点""三个原则"和"六项政策"。具体来看，"一个 目标"指"扩大内需"；"两个重点"主要是以更大力度来"激发民间投资"，以更大力度来"促进居民消 费"；"三个原则"分别是坚持"便捷高效"、坚持"精准有效"和坚持"规范提效"；"六项政策"中的四项是支 持民间投资的政策，另外两项是支持促进消费的政策。 "激发民间投资是此次一揽子政策的'重头戏'。"廖岷表示，这次支持民间投资的四项政策，惠及领域很 广，支持力度也比较大，工具箱也很丰富，有信贷、有贴息、有担保、有补偿。 据介绍，一揽子政策将同时发力。一方面，将降低企业融资成本，解决民营企业融资贵的问题。例如， 此次新设的中小微企业贷款贴息，以及优化以后的设备更新贷款贴息，都可以为企业提供贷款总额的 1.5个百分点贴息。同时，新政还大幅度拓展了支持领域和贷款用途，以帮助企业开展融资活动。另一 方面，将降低融资门槛，解决民营企业融资难的问题。廖岷表示："这主要是通 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 20, with a fixed rate and a total of 324 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%. The total bid and awarded amount was 324 billion yuan, while 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market funding conditions remained stable, with the D R001 weighted average interest rate rising over 5 basis points to around 1.37%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system maintained at 1.30%, with supply exceeding 100 billion yuan. Non-bank institutions' overnight borrowing rates for pledged credit bonds were around 1.49%, slightly higher than the previous day. Traders noted that the upcoming tax period caused a slight increase in funding prices, but overall liquidity remained loose [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.62%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a general decline in yields. The 30-year main contract for government bonds rose by 0.52%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.09%, and the 2-year by 0.05% [11]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy Insights - The Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, stated that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on increasing total volume, optimizing structure, improving efficiency, and enhancing momentum. The fiscal deficit and total debt will maintain necessary levels, ensuring that overall spending intensity will "only increase" and key areas will be "stronger" [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission's Deputy Director, Wang Changlin, indicated that the current economic operation faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The focus will be on strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [12]. Group 6: Tax Policies - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced the continuation of tax and fee preferential policies for community family services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [13]. Group 7: LPR Rates - The latest LPR quotes remained unchanged, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, maintaining stability for eight consecutive months since a decrease in May 2025 [13].

当前，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内重点领域风险隐患较 多。从国际看，大国博弈更加复杂激烈，单边主义、保护主义抬头，关税和非关税壁垒依然存在，外需 面临较大不确定性不稳定性。需要将国际经贸中可能遇到的问题考虑得更周全些，聚精会神搞建设，练 好内功，办好自己的事。从国内看，产业结构、商业模式、人口结构、财富分配等发生显著变化，供强 需弱矛盾突出，一些领域风险尚未出清。需要在促进供需平衡上下功夫，大力提振需求，解决供需错配 问题，让需求和供给更加匹配。适应新形势新变化、积极应对风险挑战，要求我们继续实施更加积极有 为的宏观政策，包括更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。 财政政策是宏观调控的重要手段，通过预算、税收、政府债券、转移支付等工具组合，可以发挥扩大总 需求和定向调结构的双重优势，熨平经济周期性波动，落实国家重大决策部署，促进经济总量平衡和结 构优化。2025年中央经济工作会议提出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。2026年财政政策和2025年财 政政策取向一以贯之，这是以习近平同志为核心的党中央审时度势、综合考量作出的重大决策部署。我 们要推动更加积极的财政政策精准增效 ...