贝莱德在第三季度固定收益展望报告中表示，“我们已经关注美国政府债务问题的危险处境有一段时间了。如果这种情况继续得不到控制，我们认为债务将成为美国在金融市场中所享有的‘特殊地位’面临的最大风险。”公共债务增加可能会降低美国长期国债收益率走势与美国货币政策之间的关联性，尽管美联储降息，收益率仍将上升。美国国债供应增加，可能会面临美联储以及外国央行需求下降的局面。这表明应当将投资多元化，减少对美国公债市场的依赖，同时增加对短期美债的配置，因为短期美债在降息时可能会受益。“尽管政府提议削减开支，但赤字仍在攀升，而且现在更多的支出都用于支付利息。”“随着外国投资者退出，政府每周发行超过5000亿美元的债务，民间市场无法吸收这些债务，从而推高政府借贷成本的风险是切实存在的。” ...

周一，美国财长贝森特表示，他预计将在美国设定的7月9日截止日期前，签署一系列新贸易协议；考虑 到当前的收益率水平，美国政府扩大长期国债发行规模并不合理。对于鲍威尔的继任者，贝森特提到了 两种可能：任命一位新成员，或从现有的美联储理事中挑选。他还表示，稳定币立法可能在7月中旬前 出台。 扩大长期国债发行规模不合理 美国财长贝森特表示，考虑到当前的收益率水平，美国政府扩大长期国债发行规模并不合理，尽管他仍 希望随着通胀放缓，各期限的利率将会下降。他周一接受媒体采访时，被问及是否应增加长期美债在美 国财政部债务发行中的占比时表示： 我们为什么要这么做？真正该这么做的时间是在2021年、2022年。 在当前利率水平下我们为什么要这么做？我们的利率已经高于长期水平超过一个标准差。 贝森特去年曾多次批评前美国财政部长耶伦在债务发行中过于依赖短期国债，称其目的是为了在大选前 维持较低的长期借贷成本、刺激经济。但自他上任以来，仍延续了耶伦的债务发行策略。 新贸易协议将至 贝森特周一表示，他预计将在美国设定的7月9日截止日期前，签署一系列新贸易协议。"进入最后一 周，随着压力增加，将会有一波公告。财政部、贸易代表办公室、商务部 ...

Core Viewpoint - The passage discusses the passage of the "GENIUS Act" by the U.S. Senate, which aims to regulate stablecoins and reflects a broader financial strategy to maintain the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the global economy [1][5]. Group 1: Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are digital currencies pegged to specific assets, primarily fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar, providing stability in value [2][3]. - Unlike traditional cryptocurrencies, stablecoins adjust their supply based on market demand and are not fully decentralized, as their issuance and reserve processes are managed by private entities [3][4]. - The majority of stablecoins are dollar-pegged, with over 95% of them based on the U.S. dollar, as the "GENIUS Act" does not recognize gold, silver, or digital assets as collateral [4]. Group 2: U.S. Dollar Dominance - The U.S. dollar's global dominance is under threat, prompting the U.S. to explore digital currencies as a means to sustain its hegemony [5][6]. - The U.S. currently holds a significant share of the global stablecoin market, with 95% of domestic stablecoins and 83% of global fiat stablecoins being dollar-based [6]. - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoins must be backed by a 1:1 ratio of U.S. dollar cash reserves, which is expected to further increase the volume of dollar stablecoins [6]. Group 3: U.S. Debt and Stablecoins - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.22 trillion, with concerns about the sustainability of this debt level [7]. - Stablecoins are becoming major buyers of U.S. Treasury bonds, with USDT and USDC holding approximately $170 billion in U.S. debt, surpassing several countries [8]. - Predictions suggest that by 2028, the issuance of stablecoins could reach $2 trillion, creating an additional $1.6 trillion demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, which could help absorb new debt issued during Trump's term [8][9]. Group 4: Global Demand for Stablecoins - There is a growing demand for dollar stablecoins in regions with volatile local currencies, as they provide easier access to U.S. dollars [9]. - The "GENIUS Act" stipulates that stablecoin reserves must primarily consist of short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, ensuring safety and liquidity [9].

Group 1 - The core argument reveals that the perception of high consumption levels in the U.S. is inflated due to various factors, including high legal and health insurance costs that are included in consumption statistics but are largely domestic transactions [1][3] - Historical context shows that the U.S. rapidly accumulated wealth through the Industrial Revolution and two World Wars, allowing even average workers to access modern amenities like private cars [1] - The U.S. debt per capita stands at approximately $105,000, indicating that each American has effectively pre-consumed a significant amount of money [3] Group 2 - The unique consumption culture in the U.S. is influenced by its financial system and global standing, which together foster a high-consumption lifestyle [5] - American consumer habits, such as the tendency to replace bedding rather than wash it, reflect a different approach to quality and longevity compared to other cultures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that Trump's spending plan cannot prevent the U.S. national debt from rising to "unsustainable" levels, with current debt levels only second to those during World War II [1][2]. Group 1: Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. will need to pay $1 trillion in interest on $36 trillion of national debt next year, which exceeds the total spending on Medicare and defense combined [1]. - The current path of debt accumulation is unsustainable, with primary deficits far exceeding normal levels, and the debt-to-GDP ratio approaching post-World War II peaks [1][2]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to become the second-largest government expenditure after Social Security next year [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Political Challenges - Goldman Sachs warns that if debt continues to grow, the government will need to maintain historically rare and politically challenging fiscal surpluses to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the Republican spending bill will increase the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade [2]. - The complexity of increasing taxes or cutting spending poses significant political challenges, making it difficult to address the debt issue effectively [2]. Group 3: Potential Consequences of Inaction - Delaying action on the debt issue may force Congress to make more difficult decisions in the future, potentially leading to extreme austerity measures that could negatively impact GDP [2]. - There is a risk that politicians may resort to excessive money printing to pay off debts, which could lead to hyperinflation and social unrest, as evidenced by historical precedents [2].

智通财经6月16日电，美国国债延续跌势，10年期收益率上涨6个基点至4.46%。 ...

Group 1 - The new tariff policies announced by the Trump administration have raised concerns among financial institutions and businesses about potential inflation, despite recent CPI reports indicating manageable inflation levels [1][2] - The May CPI report showed a nominal inflation increase of 0.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above April's 2.3% [1] - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, remained stable at 2.8%, but was below market expectations of 2.9% [1] Group 2 - The employment market has shown a downward trend, with average monthly job additions from January to May at 123,800, lower than the previous year's average of 179,600 [2][3] - The service sector has been the primary source of job growth, while manufacturing and federal government sectors have seen job losses [3] Group 3 - The U.S. federal debt has reached $36.97 trillion, with a recent bill increasing the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3][4] - Investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is declining, as evidenced by a high issuance rate of 5.047% for 30-year bonds in May, indicating increased risk perception [4] Group 4 - The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices and the depreciation of the dollar suggest a growing distrust in U.S. fiscal policy and the dollar's stability [5] - The impact of tariff policies on the global supply chain is significant, with reduced cargo volumes at several ports and rising production costs affecting economic growth [5][6] Group 5 - The stock market has returned to previous levels, but there are concerns about whether inflated stock prices can be supported by upcoming earnings reports [6] - The concentration of market value in the top ten stocks of the S&P 500, which account for 40% of the index, poses a serious risk to market stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) suggests that investors should expect the dollar to maintain its status as the global reserve currency due to a lack of realistic alternatives [1] Group 1: Dollar's Status - PIMCO indicates that the dollar is not immune to a long-term bear market, especially if demand for U.S. assets changes [1] - The company highlights that overseas investors may reassess their tolerance for unhedged dollar exposure [1] Group 2: U.S. Treasury Bonds - PIMCO describes U.S. Treasury bonds as the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the sovereign debt closet, benefiting from the dollar's reserve currency status [1]

以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 我原本以为我们正迎来四年的高速增长和美国经济的强劲活力，但如今错失了太多机会。 " 美东时间 6 月 5 日举行 2025 年福布斯 " 异见者峰会 " 上， Citadel 创始人兼 CEO 肯 · 格里芬（ Ken Griffin ）参与了重磅对话，话题直指当下最棘手的三件事：关税风暴、美国债务危机以及 " 大而美法案 " 。 肯 · 格里芬创办的城堡投资（ Citadel ）目前管理的资产超过 660 亿美元。据 LCH Investments 统计， 城堡投资是史上盈利最高的对冲基金，截至 2024 年底，累计 回报约 830 亿美元，遥遥领先第二名 D.E. Shaw 的 672 亿美元，第三名的千禧年（ Millennium）则为 655亿美元。 同时，他旗下的做市巨头城堡证券更是承担了全美约四分之一的股票交易量。 去年 12 月，格里芬还曾对这届政府寄予厚望，期盼它能带来减税、去监管、鼓励增长的新气象，并高调宣 扬"美国已经开始对商业开放 " 。 如今再听他发言，语气早已转向：从关税政策到立法支出，他几乎句句都 ...

Group 1 - The core conflict between Trump and Musk reflects the fragility of Trump's political alliance, exacerbated by internal divisions over tariffs, immigration, and education policies [1][3] - Trump's political coalition has expanded to include a diverse group of supporters, including young and non-white voters, who are increasingly uneasy about his policies [3][4] - The rising national debt is becoming a significant political challenge for Trump, with projections indicating that U.S. debt will exceed GDP by over 100% in the next decade [5][6] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, which aims to extend tax cuts and increase defense spending, has faced criticism from Musk and could further divide the Republican Party [6][9] - The current fiscal situation is alarming, with interest payments on the national debt expected to exceed one-fifth of federal revenue, raising concerns about the sustainability of future tax cuts [5][10] - Political analysts warn that if national debt becomes a central issue for voters, it could drastically alter the existing political landscape, similar to past events in the 1990s [8][10]