Core Viewpoint - Multiple Federal Reserve officials advocate for significant interest rate cuts to support the U.S. economy, arguing that current monetary policy is hindering economic growth and that there is no inflation issue to address [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve Governor Milan links the deterioration of the U.S. job market to the current tight monetary policy, emphasizing the need for substantial rate cuts to prevent rising unemployment [2]. - Milan believes that the Federal Reserve should quickly lower rates to neutral levels, stating that recent economic data supports a dovish stance [2][3]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly also supports a rate cut in December, citing a greater risk of job market deterioration compared to inflation rising [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. September core PPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while retail sales rose by 0.2% month-on-month, also below forecasts [1]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with an 84.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut according to CME FedWatch [1][5]. - Major U.S. stock indices experienced a V-shaped rebound, with the Dow Jones up 1.43% and the S&P 500 up 0.91% [1]. Group 3: Future Projections and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut in December and anticipates two additional cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026 [6]. - Analysts suggest that the potential for a "preventive rate cut" exists due to delayed economic data releases from the government shutdown, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [6]. - Concerns about rising inflation in the coming year are noted, leading to a cautious stance on U.S. Treasury investments [6].

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September in the U.S. increased compared to August, driven by rising energy and food prices [1] - The PPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-over-year increase rose from 2.60% in August to 2.7% in September, also meeting market forecasts [1] - Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.2%, but improved from a previous value of -0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the core PPI rose by 2.6%, slightly lower than analysts' estimates of 2.7% [1] Price Movements - Wholesale commodity prices increased by 0.9%, with 60% of this increase attributed to rising gasoline prices [1] - Service prices remained unchanged after a decline in the previous month [1] - In the services sector, wholesale profit margins for machinery decreased, while those for food increased [1] - Costs for airline passenger services also saw an increase [1] Economic Context - The PPI data was released after a delay due to a government shutdown and provides critical insights for assessing the inflation trajectory in the U.S. [1] - The previous month's PPI had unexpectedly declined, primarily due to a drop in service category prices, but the September data indicates a return to typical growth patterns [1] - The PPI is a leading indicator for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is set to be released on December 5 [2] - Current inflation persistence contrasts with a weak labor market, leading to divided opinions within the Federal Reserve, making the PPI data significant for the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December [2]

Core Insights - Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi suggests that the current economic troubles in the U.S. could have been avoided if the Trump administration had not implemented aggressive changes to trade rules and immigration policies [1] Inflation Trends - The consumer price inflation rate is nearing 3%, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target, with indications that inflation will continue to rise [3] - After peaking at 9% in 2022, U.S. inflation experienced a cooling period, but as of April, the annual inflation rate reversed its downward trend, reflecting a rebound [3] - The latest statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the overall consumer price index rose by 3% year-on-year in September, up from 2.3% in April, indicating a significant reversal in inflation trends within five months [3] Factors Influencing Inflation - Higher tariff barriers have increased the cost of imported goods, while strict immigration policies have led to labor shortages, compounded by a global trend towards de-globalization, all contributing to the reversal of the inflation decline [3] - Zandi predicts that U.S. inflation will rise to approximately 3.5% next year, with a long-term expectation of remaining above 3%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target [3] Alternative Scenarios - Zandi believes that without the increased tariffs and with a stable flow of immigration, U.S. inflation could stabilize around 2.25% by 2026, as sufficient labor supply would alleviate worker shortages and lower labor costs [4] - Lower tariff barriers would ensure smoother supply chains and help suppress the rise in import prices, while global resource allocation would further stabilize price fluctuations [4] - The Trump administration has claimed effective control over price levels but has quietly adjusted some policies, such as removing tariffs on basic food items, indirectly acknowledging the pressure on living costs [4]

Group 1 - The necessity for a rate cut in December is increasing due to signs of a slowing U.S. labor market, as stated by San Francisco Fed President Daly [1] - Daly expressed concerns that the labor market could deteriorate quickly, making it harder for the Fed to respond in a timely manner [1] - There is a division within the Fed regarding policy direction, with some officials focusing on inflation pressures while others support a rate cut [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for a December rate cut have surged to approximately 76%, up from 42% a week prior, influenced by dovish signals from multiple officials [2] - The U.S. Treasury yields have declined, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, which saw a price increase of over 1.6% [2] - Key economic indicators are set to be released this week, which may influence market recalibration of rate cut expectations [2]

Employment Data Summary - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 50,000[1] - Job growth was primarily concentrated in two sectors: education and healthcare services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), accounting for about 90% of total job additions[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, driven by an increase in labor supply with a participation rate of 62.4%[1][2] Wage and Hourly Data - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, increasing by 0.2% month-over-month, compared to the forecast of 0.3%[2] - Year-over-year wage growth remained at 3.8%, matching expectations[2] - Average weekly hours worked remained stable at 34.2 hours, a low level since 2015[2] Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market's expectation for a December rate cut increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9%[2] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be influenced by the lack of recent employment data, leading to a cautious stance on rate cuts in December[4][5] - Recent statements from Fed officials indicate a preference for maintaining rates, with 7 out of 14 officials leaning towards not cutting rates in December[4][5] Economic Indicators and Future Projections - The overall employment situation remains weak but has not deteriorated significantly, with initial jobless claims between 220,000 and 230,000 since October[3] - The ADP report indicates job additions remain below 50,000, suggesting ongoing labor market challenges[3] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts in early 2024, with expectations for three additional cuts based on current economic conditions[7][19]

Core Viewpoint - The September non-farm payroll data indicates a marginal recovery in overall employment, although structural issues remain. The report shows an increase in non-farm employment that exceeded market expectations, but the growth is concentrated in a few sectors, highlighting ongoing weaknesses in the labor market [3][8]. Employment Situation - Non-farm employment increased by 119,000, surpassing the expected 50,000, with revisions to previous months showing a downward adjustment of 33,000 jobs [16][18]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, primarily due to an increase in labor supply, with the labor force participation rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [20][19]. - Job growth was concentrated in two sectors: education and health services (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000), which together accounted for about 90% of total job additions [18][19]. Wage Growth and Labor Market Indicators - Hourly wage growth was slightly below expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to the expected 0.3%. Year-on-year wage growth remained at 3.8% [27][29]. - The average weekly hours worked remained stable at 34.2 hours, indicating a low level of labor utilization [27]. Market Expectations and Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the release of the employment data, market expectations for a rate cut in December increased, with the probability rising from 29.3% to 34.9% [29]. - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be influenced by the lack of recent employment data, as the next non-farm payroll report will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting [14][15]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that the Fed may not cut rates in December, but further cuts are anticipated in early 2024, contingent on sustained improvements in employment data [15][14].

dbgmarkets的专家指出，若这种分歧无法在会议前达成统一，12月降息的可能性或将进一步下降，市场 对美联储未来政策路径的预期也将持续波动。 11月21日，三位高级官员——美联储理事MichaelBarr、克利夫兰联储主席BethHammack和芝加哥联储 主席AustanGoolsbee——在同一天表达了各自对通胀问题的深切担忧，使得市场对12月降息的预期迅速 降温。根据期货合约数据，投资者目前预计美联储在12月会议上降息的概率已降至约40%，远低于此前 的乐观预期。 作为美联储理事，MichaelBarr的立场具有关键影响力。他此前支持了9月和10月的两次降息，但对12月 是否继续行动始终保持模糊态度。在最新的公开发言中，Barr明确表示，他对通胀率仍高于2%目标感 到担忧，并强调："我们在货币政策上需要小心谨慎，因为我们希望确保实现双重使命的两个方面。"尽 管他未直接反对降息，但其谨慎态度无疑为12月的政策路径增添了不确定性。 与此同时，克利夫兰联储主席BethHammack的立场更为强硬。她重申反对进一步降息，并警告称，过早 放松货币政策可能延长高通胀周期，甚至引发金融市场的不稳定。Hammack ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月美国劳动力市场数据表现分化：新增非农就业人数大幅高于预期，但失业率连续 三个月上升，时薪数据指向核心服务通胀压力尚且可控。总的来看，数据确认劳动力市场持续 走弱，但并未出现超预期恶化，就业端仍不足以构成美联储必须降息的理由。往前看，1）年内， 考虑到目前就业并未加速恶化，12 月暂停降息仍是大概率情形；2）2026 年，关税推升通胀但 幅度大概率有限，待关税影响逐渐明朗，美联储的重心仍会回到就业下行风险之上，届时经济 仍需宽货币呵护，美联储或再度降息 2-3 次至中性利率水平以应对经济下行风险。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 [Table_Title 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 2] ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 [Table ...

当地时间周四，美国劳工统计局发布了联邦政府停摆后的首份非农就业报告，9月新增非农就业人数超 出预期。对于美联储而言，良好就业数据意味着降息的迫切性有所降低。 报告显示，9月非农就业人数增加了11.9万个，而道琼斯对9月份的预期为5万个。9月失业率略升至 4.4%，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。而平均小时工资环比增长0.2%，同比增长3.8%，道琼斯分别预 测为0.3%和3.7%。 该报告结束了自9月初开始，并持续了创纪录的44天美国政府"停摆"的劳动力市场数据空窗，包括劳工 统计局、经济分析局等机构被禁止收集或发布数据。 围绕关税对通胀的影响，美联储官员意见存在分歧。一些与会官员认为，不考虑关税带来的影响，目前 通胀水平已接近美联储的目标值。然而更多官员认为，总体通胀水平已持续高于目标值，且几乎没有迹 象表明其能够及时、可持续地回落至2%的目标水平。 同时，部分美联储官员认为，进一步降息对推高通胀的作用会大于支撑劳动力市场的效果。美联储主席 鲍威尔日前曾表示，美联储12月货币政策会议决定进一步降息并非板上钉钉。美国联邦政府"停摆"导致 关键经济数据缺失，也可能成为暂缓降息的原因。 在10月货币政策会议上， ...

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国劳工统计局周四发布报告称，9月，新增非农就业人数11.9万人，远超市场预期的5万人，失业率上升0.1个百分点至 4.4%，续创2021年11月以来的最高水平。分析师认为，9月非农就业数据进一步强化了市场对劳动力市场疲软但并未崩 溃的看法，12月降息的可能有所下降。 9月非农就业报告本应在10月初公布，但由于之前美国政府"停摆"而推迟至今。当地时间11月12日晚，美国总统唐纳德· 特朗普签署一项联邦政府临时拨款法案，结束了持续40多天的联邦政府停摆。 非农数据公布后，美股一度拉升，但随后因失业率上升和降息预期降温而回落，周四纳斯达克指数跌逾2%。 惠誉评级美国经济研究主管奥卢·索诺拉也对智通财经表示，面对更强劲的就业增长与失业率攀升的局面，美联储的政 策抉择会更趋复杂。作为下次利率决议前唯一的官方就业数据，报告中超预期的积极部分，可能会削弱12月降息的概 率。 熊园表示，从货币政策时滞推算，美国新增非农就业可能在近几个月迎来触底回升的拐点，而失业率作为滞后指标大概 率仍会延续上行，不过美联储的政策决策会有前瞻性考虑，一旦非农确认拐点就有理由放慢甚至暂停降息。目前看，如 果在12月会议 ...