Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Insights - Powell's speech at Jackson Hole provided a clear hint of potential interest rate cuts, causing significant market reactions, with the dollar index dropping as much as 0.94% on August 22[3] - The Fed is facing challenges with inflation risks skewed upwards and employment risks skewed downwards, indicating a need to adjust policy stance[3] - The abandonment of the flexible average inflation targeting framework opens the door for quicker rate cuts if inflation shows signs of rapid decline[4] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market is exhibiting a "curious kind of balance," with both labor supply and demand significantly slowing, which could lead to a rise in unemployment if participation rates do not improve[4] - The upcoming August non-farm payroll data will be crucial for assessing labor market conditions ahead of the September FOMC meeting[4] - Initial jobless claims rose in the third week of August, indicating potential weakness in the labor market, but previous strong data complicates the assessment[4] Group 3: Global Economic Context - Japan's core CPI remained flat at 3.4% in July, suggesting that input inflation may be ending, with future inflation risks leaning towards a decline[26] - The U.S. imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Japan is expected to further impact Japan's manufacturing PMI, indicating a deteriorating external demand environment[26] - If U.S. economic data points to effective fiscal expansion and improved employment, a rebound in the already weakened dollar index may be more likely[5]

新华社华盛顿8月22日电 综述｜鲍威尔暗示降息 通胀就业难平衡 通常来说，高通胀要求美联储保持高利率，而就业市场放缓将推动其降低利率。但观察人士认为，尽管 就业市场疲软与政治压力构成降息推力，但通胀黏性与政策滞后效应使美联储倾向于"以时间换空间"， 今年以来在货币政策方面一直"按兵不动"。 美国就业市场7月明显降温。美国劳工部8月份公布的数据显示，7月美国失业率环比升高0.1个百分点至 4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，表现逊于市场预期的11万。 美国7月份通胀压力维持6月份以来的上升势头，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，7月份核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨3.1%，远高于美联储制定的2%目标。 在美联储内部，降息信号引来质疑。圣路易斯联储银行行长阿尔伯托·穆萨莱姆22日表示，目前美国通 胀高于美联储2%的目标，就业市场的风险也尚未真正到来，在决定支持美联储9月降息之前，需要更多 数据支撑。 新华社记者徐静 美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔22日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，暗示尽 管当前存在通胀上行风险，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息。 鲍威尔当天表示，短期内美国通胀风险偏向上行， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite current inflation risks, the Fed may consider interest rate cuts in the coming months [1] Economic Outlook - Short-term inflation risks in the U.S. are skewed upwards, while employment risks are increasing, presenting a challenging situation [1] - The U.S. economic growth slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, approximately half of the expected growth rate for the same period in 2024, largely due to a slowdown in consumer spending [1] Monetary Policy - The Fed's monetary policy is not on a preset path; decisions will be based entirely on data assessments and their implications for economic outlook and risk balance [1] - The tightening policy context may require adjustments based on changes in economic prospects and risk balance [1] Market Reaction - Financial markets reacted positively to Powell's speech, with all three major U.S. stock indices rising over 1%, the dollar index falling by 0.8%, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping by over 7.5 basis points to 4.256% [1]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference will take place from August 21 to 23 in Wyoming, attracting global investor attention, particularly towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which is expected to provide insights into future monetary policy directions [1][4] - The theme of this year's conference is "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," closely related to recent significant changes in the U.S. labor market, which has shown signs of cooling from May to July [3] - Non-farm payroll data for May and June was revised down by over 250,000, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, and wage growth slowing from 6% in June 2022 to approximately 3.9% [3] Group 2 - U.S. inflation data has been mixed, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing moderate increases, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9%, the largest monthly increase in over three years, indicating rising input inflation risks [5] - Investors are weighing economic data ahead of Powell's speech, with an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, as major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have adjusted their forecasts for the first rate cut from December to September [10] - JPMorgan predicts that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% or higher in August, the Fed may aggressively cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with expectations of three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December [11]

Core Viewpoint - The annual Jackson Hole global central bank conference is taking place from August 21 to 23, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech being a focal point. Analysts suggest that Powell is unlikely to provide clear guidance on interest rate cuts, and if any guidance is given, it may lean towards a hawkish stance [1][2]. Group 1: Labor Market and Inflation Risks - The current monetary policy of the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma, with uncertainty regarding the labor market's deterioration and accumulating inflation risks due to tariffs increasing corporate costs [2][3]. - Powell's views on the labor market and inflation risks are crucial, as his perception of whether the labor market has "cooled to policy goals" will directly impact the necessity for rate cuts [2][3]. - The U.S. July non-farm payroll data was significantly below market expectations, leading to a market consensus that the Fed would begin cutting rates in September, with expectations of three cuts this year [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market sentiment appears to be preparing for hawkish signals from Powell, with the S&P 500 index declining for five consecutive trading days, particularly in the tech sector [7]. - If Powell's speech leans towards a dovish tone, confirming a potential rate cut in September, it could alleviate market concerns and boost the stock market. Conversely, a cautious or hawkish stance could trigger a new wave of selling [7]. - Historical data indicates that the S&P 500 index has averaged a 0.9% increase in the five trading days surrounding past Jackson Hole meetings, suggesting that the market often gains certainty from the Fed Chair's remarks [7]. Group 3: Dollar and Commodity Impacts - Powell's emphasis on inflation pressures could lead to a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, while a dovish stance might weaken the dollar [7][9]. - Gold prices are currently fluctuating with the dollar's movements, and if Powell adopts a dovish tone, gold and other safe-haven assets may strengthen in the following days [8].

近期，贸易、地缘局势缓和，市场避险需求下降。另外，由于美国劳动力市场降温，叠加通胀温和反 弹，市场已基本定价美联储9月降息25个基点的预期，白银短期或陷入高位震荡整理。仍需等待美联储 政策预期进一步明朗化，重点关注8月美国的通胀和非农就业报告情况，不排除9月降息不及预期的可 能。 美国降息必要性上升 根据美国联邦基金利率期货隐含的降息预期，明年上半年美联储利率可能降至3.3%~3.5%，目前联邦基 金利率为4.25%~4.5%，即有1个百分点的降息空间。预计美联储将在9月和12月议息会议上分别降息25 个基点，明年上半年仍有两次降息的可能性，但降息预期能否落地更多取决于数据的表现。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 美联储独立性担忧加剧 特朗普再次上台以来，曾多次在个人社交媒体和公开场合批评美联储主席鲍威尔，指责美联储政策引发 通胀且没有很好解决通胀问题，在降息问题上行动迟缓等。近日，特朗普对美联储持续施压，喊话美联 储理事库克立即辞职。 随着美联储主席鲍威尔任期临近结束，市场对美联储政策独立性的担忧可能进一步发 ...

美联储独立性担忧加剧 近期，贸易、地缘局势缓和，市场避险需求下降。另外，由于美国劳动力市场降温，叠加通胀温和反 弹，市场已基本定价美联储9月降息25个基点的预期，白银短期或陷入高位震荡整理。仍需等待美联储 政策预期进一步明朗化，重点关注8月美国的通胀和非农就业报告情况，不排除9月降息不及预期的可 能。 美国降息必要性上升 美国近几个月的通胀并未出现此前市场预期的由于关税政策影响大幅上升的情况，通胀整体表现温和。 美国7月CPI环比增0.2%，较6月放缓0.1个百分点，同比增2.7%，与前值持平；核心CPI环比增0.3%，较 6月增加0.1个百分点，同比增3.1%，高于前值和市场预期，整体呈现出名义增速放缓，但核心增速上涨 的特征。虽然关税给美国带来了输入性通胀的压力，但其主要作用于占比较小的核心商品领域，而美国 以服务消费为主，因此其长期通胀水平仍然取决于核心服务。预计美国长期通胀维持高位震荡，但下半 年通胀预期仍有回落可能，美联储 9月降息的压力降低。 疫情之后，美国劳动力市场表现出一定韧性。今年上半年以来，美国新增非农就业人数有所下调，一方 面经济增长放缓，另一方面移民、政府部门裁员政策对就业也有冲击。2 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicates that most officials are more concerned about inflation risks than employment market issues [1] - The July meeting resulted in a vote of 9 in favor and 2 against maintaining interest rates, marking the first time since late 1993 that two officials opposed the rate decision [1] - The minutes suggest a clear "hawkish" policy stance, which diminishes market expectations for a rate cut in the near term [1] Group 2 - Since August, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have been frequently adjusted, particularly following disappointing non-farm employment data [2] - Recent inflation data, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), has shown unexpected increases, leading to a tightening of rate cut expectations [2] - As of August 21, market odds for a 25 basis point rate cut in September were at 81.2%, down from 92.1% a week prior, indicating fluctuating market sentiment [2]

当地时间8月20日，美联储公布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月货币政策会议纪要显示，部分与会者指出，美国对全球贸易对象加征关税的政策，将持 续影响美国消费和服务价格。 关税对商品价格带来了上升的压力，这是非常明确的。美国的商品和服务在二季度因为高关税是急剧下降的，高关税的影响和冲击在延续。从这个角度来 看，美联储判断美国的通胀会逐步走升，认为实际的价格会伴随着关税的升高而上涨。 美联储官网截图 与此同时，与会者指出，迄今为止的证据表明，外国出口商只支付了加征关税的"小部分成本"，美国国内企业和消费者则承担了"主要成本"。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受总台环球资讯广播记者采访时分析认为，这是美联储对当下美国关税政策影响的判断，而这一结论与特朗普 在第一任期内发起关税战时，美国业界做出的评价一致。 这次美联储的货币政策会议纪要对美国关税政策对价格的影响做出"逐步推升"的明确判断。在成本分摊方面，其实在特朗普第一任期时，包括彼得森研究所 也做出了非常明确的数据分析，结论就是九成以上的关税成本都是由美国消费者承担的。美联储也认为这些高关税，无论是"对等关税"还是行业关税，都会 逐步由美国的消费者来承 ...

PGIM首席全球经济学家Daleep Singh在报告中表示，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上可能暗示将 采取更为渐进的降息策略。上周美国CPI和PPI数据显示，美国通胀依然顽固，维持在3%以上。他指 出，CPI中高于4%的构成部分数量与低于2%的部分相当，这种情况自2021-2022年通胀高峰以来还是首 次出现。在此背景下，PGIM仍对其预测保持信心，预计美联储到明年将累计降息100个基点，比当前市 场预期低约50个基点。 ...