2025 年 12 月 02 日 锌：供应减产，震荡偏强 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22590 | 0.74% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3051 | 0.96% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 128295 | 34139 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 9061 | 669 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 105756 | 4214 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 218095 | -1636 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 20 | -30 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 224.43 | 58.99 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水 ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $87,000 and Ethereum falling below $2,900, leading to a liquidation of over $5 billion in contracts and affecting 177,200 traders [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's intraday drop exceeded 5%, while Ethereum also saw a decline of over 5% [1][3]. - As of the report, Bitcoin was down 4.22% at $87,100, and Ethereum was down 5.35% at $2,837 [3]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $5.28 billion, with long positions accounting for $466 million and short positions for $61.75 million [3]. Market Sentiment - The recent sell-off in the cryptocurrency market is attributed to rumors regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's potential resignation, although analysts suggest these rumors are likely false [1][3]. - The market is characterized by heightened risk aversion, with traders anticipating further declines, particularly watching the $80,000 support level for Bitcoin [3]. Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - President Donald Trump announced he has decided on the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with speculation that his choice may aim to lower interest rates [4][5]. - Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, is considered a potential candidate to succeed Powell, although he has denied being a frontrunner [5][6]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has grown, and he seeks a chairman who will more aggressively pursue rate cuts [6].

24小时内爆仓人数达到17.72万。 今日盘中，加密货币纷纷下挫。比特币盘中一度跌破8.7万美元，以太坊跌破2900美元。截至发稿，比特币跌4.22%报8.71万美元，以太坊跌5.35%报2837美元， XRP、狗狗币跌超6%，Solana、艾达币跌近6%。 Coinglass数据显示，24小时内，加密货币全网合约爆仓5.28美元，爆仓人数达到17.72万。其中，多单爆仓4.66亿美元，空单爆仓6175万美元。最大单笔爆仓单 发生在Binance-ETHUSDC，价值1448.17万美元。 | 1小时爆仓 | $3.78亿 | 4小时爆仓 | $4.28亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 念車 | $3.73亿 | 容更 | $4.21亿 | | 空車 | $504.85万 | 空車 | $721.83万 | | 12小时爆仓 | $4.69亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $5.28亿 | | 念東 | $4.35 乙 | 念車 | $4.66 Z | | 空車 | $3355.21万 | 空車 | $6175.24万 | | | 最近24小时,全球共有 177,216 人被爆仓,爆仓总 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The economic sentiment level in China is generally stable. In November, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but has been below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.3 percentage points. Some sub - indicators show initial signs of economic recovery, but policy support is still needed to boost demand [8]. - For LPG, the short - term supply is tight, but the medium - to - long - term trend is under pressure. For propylene, the supply - demand pattern remains loose [12]. - It is recommended to grasp the opportunity to allocate precious metals on dips, especially silver with a tight spot structure [13]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0% (up 0.3 percentage points), the new orders index was 49.2% (up 0.4 percentage points), the raw material inventory index was 47.3% (unchanged), the employment index was 48.4% (up 0.1 percentage points), and the supplier delivery time index was 50.1% (up 0.1 percentage points). The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% (down 0.6 percentage points), and the composite PMI output index was 49.7% (down 0.3 percentage points) [8]. 2. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term price increase of the PG main contract was due to factors such as increased civilian demand in winter, supply reduction from Middle - East maintenance, strong external paper - cargo prices, and unexpectedly strong chemical demand. However, the chemical demand is expected to weaken, North American supply may increase, and the long - term trend is under pressure due to slower downstream chemical production growth and increased supply from the Middle East and the US in 2026 [12]. - **Propylene**: The Shandong spot price first rose and then fell last week. After the cost - side propane strengthened, it broke away from the restriction of PP. But now the positive factors have been fully digested, the downstream is in serious losses, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [12]. 3. Silver - The long - term allocation logic of precious metals remains unchanged. One should seize the opportunity to allocate silver when the risk sentiment improves marginally, taking advantage of its high elasticity. Although the silver spot contradiction is normal, the current overseas macro - liquidity improvement logic is stronger than the economic demand side [13]. 4. Other Commodities - **Gold**: The expectation of interest - rate cuts has rebounded [16]. - **Copper**: The spot price has strengthened, pulling up the price. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [24][26]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the bottom [16]. - **Lead**: The reduction in inventory supports the price [16]. - **Tin**: There are new disturbances in supply [16]. - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly, while the fundamental contradiction of alumina remains unresolved, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [16][37]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals limit the upside elasticity, and it is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel has high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside space [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is oscillating at a high level, and attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [46]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range - bound market. For polysilicon, attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [50]. - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [16][53]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are oscillating at a low level [16][55]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Silicon ferrosilicon is affected by market sentiment and oscillating at a low level, while manganese silicide has a firm ore - end price and is also oscillating at a low level [59]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They are in a wide - range oscillation [16][63].

新加坡元兑美元在亚洲交易时段汇率保持盘整。三菱日联的Lloyd Chan在一份研究报告中写道，市场正 等待美国总统特朗普预计将在未来几周内宣布下一任美联储主席的人选。财政部长贝森特已表示，继任 者很有可能在圣诞节前被提名。Chan表示："鲍威尔的任期定于2026年5月结束，任何关于领导层的早 期信号都可能影响市场对2026年美国货币政策的预期。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn on December 1, with Bitcoin dropping below $87,000 and Ethereum falling below $2,900, attributed to rumors regarding the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's resignation, which analysts believe to be false [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's intraday drop exceeded 5%, while Ethereum also saw a decline of over 5% [1]. - As of the report, Bitcoin was down 4.22% at $87,100, and Ethereum was down 5.35% at $2,837 [3]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached over $528 million within 24 hours, affecting approximately 177,200 traders [2][3]. Liquidation Details - The breakdown of liquidations included $466 million from long positions and $61.75 million from short positions [3]. - The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance-ETHUSDC, valued at $14.48 million [3]. Market Sentiment - The cryptocurrency market remains unstable, with a prolonged sell-off beginning in early October, leading to the liquidation of approximately $19 billion in leveraged positions [5]. - Analysts express concern over the lack of inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the absence of buyers at lower prices, indicating a potential for further declines [5]. Federal Reserve Leadership Speculation - President Trump announced he has decided on the next Federal Reserve Chairman, with speculation surrounding Kevin Hassett as a potential candidate [6][7]. - Hassett has indicated that he would accept the position if offered, but analysts warn he may struggle to unify the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee [7].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has decided on the next Federal Reserve Chair, with expectations for the new appointee to advocate for interest rate cuts, leading to a positive market reaction, including a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield below 4% [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - The announcement of a new Fed Chair candidate has resulted in a strong performance in U.S. Treasury auctions and a decrease in interest rates, indicating that the public can expect lower auto loans and mortgage rates [3]. - Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Director, noted that the market's response to the upcoming announcement was "very positive" [1][6]. Group 2: Potential Candidates - Kevin Hassett is viewed as a leading candidate to replace Jerome Powell, with a 66% probability of being nominated according to Polymarket predictions [1]. - Other potential candidates include Federal Reserve Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder, although Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has ruled himself out [7]. Group 3: Nomination Process - The nomination is expected to be announced before the Christmas holiday, with Powell's term ending in May of the following year [3][7]. - Any nominee will require Senate confirmation, and if the candidate is from outside the Fed, they may also need to be confirmed for a 14-year term starting in February [7].

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特，本周成为市场关注的热门美联储主席候选人。预测平台 Polymarket上，交易员们加大了对特朗普任命哈西特为下一任美联储主席的押注。目前哈西特胜出的概 率已跃升超20个百分点至56%。多位接近特朗普的顾问表示，特朗普十分信任哈西特，双方私交深厚。 ...

来源：@央视财经微博 【#下一任美联储主席热门人选# 分析人士：#哈西特若当选利空美元#】白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文· 哈西特，本周成为市场关注的热门美联储主席候选人。预测平台Polymarket上，交易员们加大了对特朗 普任命哈西特为下一任美联储主席的押注。目前哈西特胜出的概率已跃升超20个百分点至56%。多位接 近特朗普的顾问表示，特朗普十分信任哈西特，双方私交深厚。目前市场分析人士认为，如果特朗普最 终选择哈西特，这不仅意味着其降息倾向会被带入美联储决策层，也会强化外界对特朗普希望"重塑美 联储运作方式"的预期。基于哈西特偏向宽松的政策立场，分析人士普遍认为，这一人事安排对美元构 成利空。 ...

从历史上看，美联储主席和理事的人选是总统影响央行的最直接方式。美联储现任主席鲍威尔的任期将 于明年5月到期。特朗普多次表示对鲍威尔的工作不满，此前甚至威胁说要将其解职，近期则一直催着 贝森特加紧推进新任美联储主席遴选工作，并推动美联储降息。据彭博社报道，哈西特被认为与特朗普 在经济问题上的观点非常一致，包括降低利率。他在20日接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，如果他是美联储 主席，"现在就会降息"，因为"数据表明我们应该降息"。 值得注意的是，贝森特对美联储未来角色表达了新的看法。他对媒体表示，2007年金融危机之后美联储 一直在经济和金融领域发挥着主导作用，但今后美联储应该扮演不同角色，"现在到了化繁为简的时 候，美联储应该像过去一样回归后台，安静些"。 据报道，目前由贝森特牵头美联储新任主席的遴选工作，他早在上月就披露，共有5人进入候选人名 单，分别是白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什、贝莱德高管里克·里德尔以 及现任美联储理事会成员克里斯托弗·沃勒和米歇尔·鲍曼。根据贝森特最新发言，这些候选人的面试将 于本周结束。 在上述候选人中，"哈西特目前是领跑者"，彭博社25日援引知情人士的话表示 ...