Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in the second half of the year are under pressure, but the probability of additional deficits is low. The government is expected to utilize fiscal policy reserves to cover the revenue gap caused by childcare and elderly service subsidies [1][5][11]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Analysis - In the first half of the year, the national fiscal revenue and expenditure deviated slightly from the initial budget, with revenue falling short by 463 billion yuan and expenditure by 1309 billion yuan for the general public budget [2][6]. - The central government's general public budget revenue decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 6.9%. Local governments showed a revenue increase of 3.0% and expenditure increase of 3.7% [3][6]. - For the second half of the year, the expected year-on-year growth rates for the general public budget are -4.5% for revenue and 1.5% for expenditure, leading to a projected revenue shortfall of 516.6 billion yuan and an expenditure shortfall of 547.2 billion yuan compared to the budget [5][11]. Budget Execution and Adjustments - Historically, the completion rate for the general public budget has been over 98%, and significant deviations typically necessitate budget adjustments or additional deficits. However, the flexibility of the special fund budget allows for a completion rate of 80%-90% without strict requirements [2][5]. - The government plans to cover the expected 1200 billion yuan revenue gap from subsidies without increasing the budget by utilizing reserves, including the budget stabilization fund and profits from central financial enterprises [11][12]. Central Financial Enterprises' Role - The profits from central financial enterprises are crucial for offsetting revenue shortfalls. In 2024, these enterprises contributed significantly to the budget, with non-tax revenue showing substantial increases in late 2024 [7][12]. - The central budget stabilization fund had a balance of 2739.22 billion yuan at the end of 2024, with plans to allocate 1000 billion yuan in 2025, leaving a remaining balance of 1739.22 billion yuan [12].

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure in the second half of the year will face pressure, but the probability of additional deficits is low. It is expected that fiscal policy reserves will be utilized to cover the revenue shortfall caused by the issuance of childcare and elderly service consumption subsidies [2][6][11]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first half of the year, the deviation of fiscal revenue and expenditure from the budget was limited, with national revenue falling short of the initial budget by 463 billion and expenditure lower by 1309 billion for the general public budget [4][6]. - The revenue and expenditure growth rates for the general public budget in the first half of 2025 were -0.3% and 3.4%, respectively, while the government fund revenue and expenditure growth rates were -2.4% and 30.0% [5][7]. Group 2: Projections for the Second Half of the Year - For the second half of the year, the expected growth rates for the general public budget revenue and expenditure are -4.5% and 1.5%, respectively, with a projected revenue shortfall of 516.6 billion and an expenditure shortfall of 547.2 billion compared to the budget [6][11]. - The second half of the year is anticipated to see government fund revenue and expenditure growth rates of -2.5% and 11.4%, respectively, with a budget shortfall exceeding 500 billion [6][11]. Group 3: Budget Management Strategies - In 2024, the highest deviation of the general public budget revenue from the budget reached 915.6 billion, but no additional deficit was added. Instead, measures such as strengthening tax collection and activating existing assets were employed to catch up with the budget [9][11]. - The central budget stabilization fund had a balance of 273.9 billion at the end of 2024, with 100 billion planned to be transferred in 2025, leaving a remaining balance of 173.9 billion [12].

财政部25日发布数据显示，今年上半年，全国一般公共预算收入115566亿元，同比下降0.3%。 分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算本级支出19914亿元，同比增长9%；地方一般公共预算支出121357 亿元，同比增长2.6%。 从主要支出科目看，上半年，教育支出21483亿元，同比增长5.9%；科学技术支出4790亿元，同比增长 9.1%；文化旅游体育与传媒支出1738亿元，同比增长5%；社会保障和就业支出24504亿元，同比增长 9.2%；卫生健康支出11004亿元，同比增长4.3%；节能环保支出2556亿元，同比增长5.9%。 全国政府性基金预算收支方面，上半年，全国政府性基金预算收入19442亿元，同比下降2.4%；全国政 府性基金预算支出46273亿元，同比增长30%。(申铖、欧阳剑环) 分中央和地方看，上半年，中央一般公共预算收入48589亿元，同比下降2.8%；地方一般公共预算本级 收入66977亿元，同比增长1.6%。 财政支出方面，上半年，全国一般公共预算支出141271亿元，同比增长3.4%。 ...

周至县财政局公布的数据显示，截至6月底，全县地方一般公共预算收入累计完成14646万元，完成预算的55.7%，同比增长3.1%。其中：税收收 入完成9120万元，同比增长68.8%，税收占比62.3%；非税收入完成5526万元，同比下降41.4%。全县政府性基金收入完成5078万元，完成预算的 5.8%，同比增长65.7%。 近日，陕西省西安市周至县公布2025年1-6月财政收支情况。2025年前6个月，周至县地方一般公共预算收入累计完成14646万元，其中税收占比 62.3%；一般公共预算支出累计完成231857万元。 | 索引号 | 2025-005172 | 发布日期 | 2025-07-30 10:42 | 来 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 截至6月底，全县地方一般公共预算收入累计完成14646万元，完成预算55.7%，同比增长3.1%，其中税收和非税收入有不同变化；政府性 | | | | | 内容概述 | 基金收入完成5078万元，完成预算5.8%，同比增长65.7%。一般公共预算支出累计完成231857万元，完成调整预算60.6%，同比下降 | | | ...

当前，我国财政收支情况如何？近日，财政部发布了上半年的财政收支数据，具体包括一般公共预算收 支情况，个人所得税、房产税等主要税收收入项目情况，社保、教育、卫生等主要支出科目情况，政府 性基金预算收支情况、央地财政收支情况等。为进一步分析我国财力并剖析数据背后的真实场景， 7月28日，一则国家育儿补贴制度实施方案发布的消息引发社会关注：从2025年1月1日起，对3周岁以下 婴幼儿发放补贴，至其年满3周岁，每孩每年3600元。有网友直呼："国家真的发钱了！" 钱从哪里来？上述方案规定由中央和地方财政共同承担。对此，有网友问道："当前财力能否支撑这样 一笔不小的支出？" ...

Group 1 - The tax imposed is not directly on countries like the EU, Japan, or China, but rather on American consumers, which could negatively impact political support if framed as a direct tax increase on consumers [1] - The purpose of the tax is to address fiscal shortfalls and the expanding U.S. debt gap, while being presented as a means to support American manufacturing and strengthen the country [3] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to lead to increased consumer prices and inflation in the U.S., as consumers will face higher costs for goods [3] Group 2 - Japan has negotiated a 15% tariff rate, which is seen as a favorable outcome compared to the initially threatened 25%-27.5% rate, and this has led to a lack of significant pushback from Japan [3] - South Korea is also expected to negotiate down to a 15% tariff rate, similar to Japan [4] - The U.S.-China temporary tariff situation includes a base rate of 10% with additional rates for specific goods, leading to comprehensive rates that can reach up to 245% for electric vehicles [4][5] Group 3 - Certain technology products, such as semiconductors, are exempt from tariffs, indicating a strategic approach to protect key industries [5] - The overall tariff burden on China is higher than that on the EU and Japan, which may not adversely affect the latter's exports to the U.S. and could even provide them with competitive advantages [5][6] - There is speculation that China may devalue its currency to counteract the impact of U.S. tariffs, although an argument is made that the yuan should appreciate to increase costs for U.S. consumers and contribute to inflation [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall operation of general public budget revenue in the first half of 2025 was weak, with insufficient tax recovery momentum and limited support from non - tax revenue. The economic recovery foundation is still unstable, and the pressure on fiscal revenue growth remains significant. Meanwhile, the general public budget expenditure accelerated its expansion, focusing on people's livelihood and innovation, but the overall expenditure progress was slightly lower than the annual budget [3][4]. - The government - funded budget revenue in the first half of 2025 was under pressure, especially the land transfer revenue. In the context of the continuous adjustment of the real estate market, the growth of fund revenue lacks stable support. However, the government - funded budget expenditure accelerated, showing an active orientation of fiscal policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs General Public Budget Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1.15566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Tax revenue was 929.15 billion yuan, down 1.2% year - on - year, while non - tax revenue was 226.51 billion yuan, up 3.7% year - on - year. Central revenue was 485.89 billion yuan, down 2.8% year - on - year, and local revenue was 669.77 billion yuan, up 1.6% year - on - year [35]. - Main tax items: domestic VAT was 363.93 billion yuan, up 2.8% year - on - year; domestic consumption tax was 89.8 billion yuan, up 1.7% year - on - year; enterprise income tax was 249.1 billion yuan, down 1.9% year - on - year; personal income tax was 79.45 billion yuan, up 8% year - on - year; export tax rebates were 127.02 billion yuan, up 11.6% year - on - year; etc [36][37][38][39][40]. General Public Budget Expenditure - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. Central expenditure was 199.14 billion yuan, up 9% year - on - year, and local expenditure was 1.21357 trillion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year [46]. - Main expenditure items: education expenditure was 214.83 billion yuan, up 5.9% year - on - year; science and technology expenditure was 47.9 billion yuan, up 9.1% year - on - year; social security and employment expenditure was 245.04 billion yuan, up 9.2% year - on - year; etc [47][48][50]. Government - Funded Budget Revenue - In the first half of 2025, the national government - funded budget revenue was 194.42 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Central revenue was 21.73 billion yuan, up 4.8% year - on - year, and local revenue was 172.69 billion yuan, down 3.2% year - on - year. The state - owned land use right transfer income was 142.71 billion yuan, down 6.5% year - on - year [57]. Government - Funded Budget Expenditure - In the first half of 2025, the national government - funded budget expenditure was 462.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30%. Central expenditure was 63.08 billion yuan, up 6.2 times year - on - year, and local expenditure was 399.65 billion yuan, up 15.1% year - on - year. The expenditure related to the state - owned land use right transfer income was 206.01 billion yuan, down 6.4% year - on - year [58][59].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported that in the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure reached 141,271 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Central government expenditure was 19,914 billion yuan, growing by 9% year-on-year, while local government expenditure was 121,357 billion yuan, increasing by 2.6% [1] - Key areas of expenditure included education (21,483 billion yuan, +5.9%), science and technology (4,790 billion yuan, +9.1%), social security and employment (24,504 billion yuan, +9.2%), health (11,004 billion yuan, +4.3%), and environmental protection (2,556 billion yuan, +5.9%) [1] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% [1] - Central government revenue was 48,589 billion yuan, down 2.8%, while local government revenue was 66,977 billion yuan, up 1.6% [1] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized a stable overall fiscal operation, with tax revenue gradually recovering and most regions experiencing revenue growth [1] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance's Social Security Department outlined five key areas of work in employment, pension, and healthcare [2] - Employment support included 667.4 billion yuan in employment subsidies from the central government [2] - The central government increased funding for basic pension insurance and ensured timely payments for over 300 million elderly citizens [2] - Medical security services were enhanced with 5,522 billion yuan allocated for related subsidies [2] - Support for vulnerable populations included 1,566.8 billion yuan in assistance for those in need [2]

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue reached 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - National general public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [1] - Overall, fiscal operations have remained stable, characterized by a gradual recovery in tax revenue, a decline in non-tax revenue growth, income growth in most regions, and increased fiscal spending in key areas [1] Employment and Social Security - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 667.4 billion yuan in employment support funds, emphasizing social security as a priority area for fiscal spending [2] - Policies include reducing unemployment and work injury insurance rates, increasing unemployment insurance subsidies, and expanding social insurance subsidies to stabilize jobs and support employment for college graduates [2] - The basic pension for retirees has been increased by 2%, and the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions has been raised by 20 yuan [2] Healthcare and Public Health - The per capita fiscal subsidy standard for basic public health services has been increased by 5 yuan, reaching 99 yuan per person per year [3] - The per capita fiscal subsidy for urban and rural residents' medical insurance has been raised by 30 yuan, totaling 700 yuan per person per year [3] - A total of 552.2 billion yuan has been allocated for related subsidies this year to enhance medical assistance and reduce the financial burden on vulnerable groups [3] Consumer Spending Initiatives - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been a key initiative to boost consumer spending, with 1.6 trillion yuan in sales for items like automobiles and home appliances [4] - Retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture have seen year-on-year growth rates of 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% respectively [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of policies to stimulate consumer spending and improve the consumption environment [4][5]

Revenue Insights - In the first half of 2025, general fiscal revenue totaled 11.56 trillion, down 0.3% year-on-year, with June revenue at 1.89 trillion, also down 0.31% year-on-year[1][2] - Government fund revenue in June was 395.9 billion, a significant increase of 20.8% year-on-year, driven mainly by land transfer income[9][10] Expenditure Trends - Total general fiscal expenditure in the first half reached 14.13 trillion, up 3.4% year-on-year, with June expenditure at 2.83 trillion, a mere 0.38% increase year-on-year[1][2] - Central fiscal expenditure grew by 9% year-on-year, significantly outpacing local expenditure growth of 2.6%[2][8] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, suggesting a potential slowdown to around 4.7% in the second half, still maintaining a target of "around 5%"[4][5] - New policies are expected from the Political Bureau by the end of July, but strong stimulus measures are unlikely, with a focus on gradual support[4][5] Fiscal Policy Considerations - The fiscal policy approach is expected to be a "two-step" process, focusing first on the implementation of existing policies and then adjusting based on economic conditions[5][6] - Key areas of focus include the pace of government bond issuance and the actual progress of physical work projects[5][6]