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2025年8月财政数据点评:税收累计同比转正
HTSC· 2025-09-19 11:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In August 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure performance was relatively stable. Tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth turned positive for the first time, possibly an early sign of improved economic vitality, but land transfer revenue still had a large drag, reflecting the inertia of the "old economy." The general budget target for this year is not difficult to achieve, while the government - funded budget may face a certain gap, but policy - based financial instruments may form a certain hedge [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 General Budget Revenue - **Overall Growth and Composition**: In August, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than July. Tax revenue increased by 3.4% (previous value 5.0%), and non - tax revenue's year - on - year decline narrowed from - 12.9% to - 3.8%. From January to August, tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth was 0.02%, the first positive growth this year, and non - tax revenue's cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.5% [1]. - **Total Progress and Regional Differences**: From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general budget revenue was 0.3%, 0.1% higher than the annual budget target, and about 67% of the annual budget was completed, slightly faster than the same period last year. In August, the year - on - year growth of central and local fiscal revenues was both 2.0%, with a slight decline from the previous value. Considering the convergence of economic data in recent months, there may still be some pressure on revenue growth in the future [2]. 3.2 Tax Structure - **High - growth Taxes**: In August, value - added tax, personal income tax, and corporate income tax continued to grow rapidly. Value - added tax increased by 4.4% year - on - year, personal income tax and corporate income tax increased by 9.7% and 33.4% respectively, mainly related to strengthened tax supervision, active capital markets, and improved corporate profitability [3]. - **Slowing - growth Taxes**: The year - on - year growth rate of consumption tax slowed down to 0.9% (previous value 5.4%). Low consumer enthusiasm and high - base pressure in the fourth quarter may affect consumption tax revenue [3]. - **Declining Taxes**: The decline of real - estate - related taxes widened, with a 11.6% year - on - year decrease in August. Real - estate policies had limited impact on sales, and investment and construction indicators continued to decline [4]. - **Increasing Taxes**: The year - on - year growth of stamp duty further increased, with the year - on - year growth of stamp duty rising from 24% in July to 154%, and the year - on - year growth of securities trading stamp duty rising from 125% to 226%, due to the strong rise of the stock market [4]. 3.3 General Budget Expenditure - **Overall Growth**: In August, general public budget expenditure increased by 0.8% year - on - year, slower than the previous value of 3.0%. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first eight months was 3.1%, lower than the annual budget target of 4.4% [5]. - **Expenditure Areas**: The main driving force was still people's livelihood expenditure, such as social security and employment, health, and education. Infrastructure - related expenditure was still weak, and the growth rate of generalized and narrow - sense infrastructure investment declined [5]. 3.4 Government - Funded Revenue - **Overall Growth**: In August, government - funded revenue decreased by 5.7% year - on - year, turning negative from positive. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth was - 1.4%, lower than the annual budget target of 0.7%. Land transfer revenue's cumulative year - on - year decline was 4.7% [6]. - **Completion Progress and Forecast**: By August, government - funded revenue had completed about 42% of the annual budget. Assuming the current real - estate demand trend continues, the annual revenue growth of the second - account budget is expected to be around - 5%, resulting in a revenue gap of 300 - 500 billion yuan [6]. 3.5 Government - Funded Expenditure - **Growth and Reasons**: In August, government - funded expenditure increased by 19.8% year - on - year, still maintaining high growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first eight months was 30.0%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The high - intensity expenditure was mainly due to the front - loaded issuance of local bonds and the injection of special treasury bonds [7]. - **Combined Fiscal Deficit**: The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first eight months was 6.7 trillion yuan, nearly 2 trillion yuan higher than the same period last year. After excluding the 500 - billion - yuan special treasury bond for capital injection, the broad - fiscal deficit was 6.2 trillion yuan, comparable to the same period in 2022 [7]. 3.6 Future Fiscal Concerns - **Rhythm**: In the third quarter, replacement bonds and special treasury bonds were completed successively. In the fourth quarter, government bond supply will enter a low - season, and the fiscal support for the economy will decline year - on - year, but there is still room for the expenditure of existing funds, mainly in the general budget [9]. - **Tools**: In August, core economic indicators weakened, and the market expected pro - growth policies. However, considering the small gap in the annual target, the possibility of additional fiscal deficits in the fourth quarter is low. Policy - based financial instruments are the core focus, and attention should also be paid to whether there is incremental support for implicit debt resolution [9]. - **Investment Direction**: This year, fiscal focus is not only on infrastructure, but also on child - rearing subsidies, urban renewal, consumer loan interest subsidies, and enterprise arrears. These will still be the focus of future efforts, and attention should be paid to whether there is incremental capital support [9].
2025年7月财政数据点评:税收端改善,狭义支出提速
HTSC· 2025-08-22 14:24
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fiscal data in July continued to show a warming trend. The improvement on the tax side led to a slight acceleration in narrow - fiscal spending, while broad - fiscal spending maintained resilience supported by special bonds for bank capital injection and ultra - long - term special bonds. Based on the current progress, it is estimated that the fiscal strength in the second half of the year can achieve a smooth continuation, and the probability of supplementing fiscal funds through additional bond issuance within the year is low [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Tax Revenue Situation - In July 2025, the national general budget revenue increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with significant tax contribution. Tax revenue increased by 5.0% year - on - year, 4 percentage points higher than the previous value, while non - tax revenue decreased by 12.9% year - on - year, with negative growth for three consecutive months and an expanding decline. The total general budget revenue from January to July increased by 0.1% year - on - year, reaching the annual budget target and completing about 62% of the annual budget, faster than the same period last year. In July, central fiscal revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year, and local fiscal revenue increased by 3.1% year - on - year [1][2]. - In terms of tax structure, major tax items generally showed high year - on - year growth. Personal income tax and consumption tax increased by 13.9% and 5.4% respectively in July, with their cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July being 8.8% and 2.1%. Corporate income tax increased by 6.4% year - on - year in July. VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year in July, showing a slight decline but overall remaining stable. Most real - estate - related taxes saw a decline in growth, while securities trading stamp duty increased significantly by 125.4% year - on - year in July [3][4]. General Budget Expenditure - In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.0% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points higher than the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to July was 3.4%, 1 percentage point away from the annual target. The main driving force for expenditure was on the livelihood front, such as social security and employment, health, and education, while infrastructure - related expenditure remained in the negative range, and science - related expenditure turned negative [4]. Government - Fund Revenue - In July, national government - fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, with a marginal slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year decline from January to July further narrowed to 0.7%, and the annual budget target is 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to 4.6%. The government - fund revenue in the first half of the year completed about 37% of the annual progress, significantly faster than the same period last year [6]. Government - Fund Expenditure - In July, national government - fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, still at a high level although it declined compared to the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 31.7%, above the annual budget target of 23.1%. The budget completion progress of government - fund expenditure for the whole year was about 43%, faster than the same period in previous years. The combined broad - fiscal deficit of the two accounts in the first seven months reached 5.6 trillion, 1.8 trillion higher than the same period last year [7]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The first - account target is expected to be achieved, while the second - account may have a small gap. Assuming the annual growth rate of the second - account revenue is around - 5%, there may be a revenue gap of about 300 - 50 billion by the end of the year. However, government - fund revenue and expenditure are not rigid requirements, and the expected 500 - billion - yuan policy - based financial instruments can basically offset the gap [8].
国泰海通|宏观:收支改善,服务民生——2025年7月财政数据点评
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery in both revenue and expenditure growth in July 2025, primarily driven by improved tax revenue and proactive government spending focused on public welfare [1][2][3]. Revenue Summary - In the first seven months of 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [1]. - Tax revenue showed a significant rebound, while non-tax revenue continued to decline, indicating a shift towards improved tax collection [1]. - Local revenue growth outpaced that of the central government, alleviating some fiscal pressure at the local level [1]. - Specific tax categories such as domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed marginal improvements, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty reflecting a more active stock market [1]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure rose by 3.4% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with July showing a recovery in growth [2]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth rates and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints from revenue [2]. - Key areas of expenditure included health care and social security, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [2]. - Government fund revenue growth saw a marginal decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in the first seven months, influenced by the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2]. Government Fund Expenditure Summary - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with central and local levels growing by 4.5 times and 18.1%, respectively [3]. - The acceleration in bond issuance and utilization was a significant factor driving this growth, with 2.89 trillion yuan allocated to government fund budget expenditures [3]. - Despite a slight decline in the growth rate of government fund budget expenditure in July, it remained at a high level [3]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that there are positive signs in fiscal revenue and expenditure, with improved tax collection and accelerated local revenue growth helping to ease fiscal pressures [3]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [3]. - The ongoing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector, require close monitoring, with expectations for continued proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year [3].
什么是核电站乏燃料处理处置基金?
蓝色柳林财税室· 2025-08-17 11:40
Basic Situation - In 2010, to promote the development of nuclear power, the Ministry of Finance, National Development and Reform Commission, and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Interim Measures for the Collection, Use, and Management of the Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Treatment and Disposal Fund," effective from October 1, 2010 [2] - In 2017, the National People's Congress passed the "Nuclear Safety Law," which mandates that operating units of nuclear facilities must pay for spent fuel treatment and disposal according to national regulations [2] - In 2018, the Ministry of Finance announced that starting January 1, 2019, the collection of the spent fuel treatment and disposal fund would be transferred to the tax authorities [2] Policy Basis - The primary legal basis is the "Nuclear Safety Law of the People's Republic of China" [3] - Key documents include: 1. "Notice on the Issuance of the Interim Measures for the Collection, Use, and Management of the Nuclear Power Plant Spent Fuel Treatment and Disposal Fund" [3] 2. "Notice on the Transfer of Non-Tax Revenue Projects to Tax Authorities" [3] 3. "Announcement on the Management Responsibilities for Non-Tax Revenue Projects" [3] Collection Scope - The fund must be paid by nuclear power plants that have operated commercial pressurized water reactor units for more than five years [4] Collection Standard - The spent fuel treatment and disposal fund is collected based on the actual on-grid sales electricity of the nuclear power plant, with a standard rate of 0.026 yuan per kilowatt-hour [5] Budget Management - The spent fuel treatment and disposal fund is classified as a government fund, with all revenue submitted to the central treasury. It is included in the "Government Fund Budget Revenue" under the specific category for this fund [6]
2025年6月财政数据点评:广义财政再上“台阶”
HTSC· 2025-07-30 09:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - In June 2025, the fiscal data continued to show a warming trend. The revenue side had highlights such as personal income tax, and land sales revenue also marginally stabilized. The expenditure side continued to reflect the characteristics of fiscal efforts. Based on the current progress, the annual general budget revenue and expenditure targets are expected to be achieved, and there may be a small gap in government - managed funds, but policy - based financial tools and local debt limit space in the second half of the year may provide some flexibility. Overall, the fiscal situation is better than last year [11]. - The broad - based fiscal deficit of the two accounts combined in the first half of the year reached 5.3 trillion, significantly higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024, and comparable to 2022. It is expected to remain active in the second half of the year. Key areas to focus on in the future include major infrastructure projects and "urban renewal" policies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. General Budget Revenue - **Revenue Growth and Composition**: In June 2025, the national general budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with non - tax revenue being a significant drag. Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year - on - year, while non - tax revenue decreased by 3.7% year - on - year and has been on a continuous downward trend this year. The decline in non - tax revenue is expected to continue, and tax revenue may be the focus of the revenue side this year [1]. - **Revenue Target Progress**: In the first half of the year, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general budget revenue was - 0.3%, 0.4 percentage points short of the annual target (0.1%), and it completed about 53% of the annual budget, slightly faster than the same period last year and basically in line with the average of the past five years [2]. - **Central and Local Revenue**: In June, central fiscal revenue decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while local fiscal revenue increased by 0.6% year - on - year [2]. 2. Tax Structure - **Main Tax Items**: - **Value - Added Tax and Personal Income Tax**: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of value - added tax and personal income tax were 6.8% and 5.0% respectively, showing a slight decline from the previous values. However, from the perspective of cumulative year - on - year growth and absolute scale in the first half of the year, they were at relatively high levels in recent years. The sustainability of the year - on - year increase in personal income tax remains to be observed [3]. - **Consumption Tax and Corporate Income Tax**: In June, corporate income tax increased by 2.7% year - on - year (previous value: 0.0%), and vehicle purchase tax increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The acceleration of consumption tax (2.0%) deviated from the year - on - year decline in social retail sales, which may reflect differences in the tax collection rhythm within the year [3]. - **Real Estate - Related Taxes**: In June, the year - on - year decline of transaction - related taxes (deed tax, land value - added tax) narrowed slightly, and the year - on - year growth rates of holding - related taxes such as property tax and arable land occupation tax were 20.7% and 9.6% respectively, which may be related to the rebound in the new construction and construction area of real estate, but the investment side is still at the bottom - grinding stage [4]. - **Stamp Duty and Securities Transaction Stamp Duty**: In June, stamp duty and securities transaction stamp duty increased by 30.7% and 67.1% year - on - year respectively, mainly due to the increase in stock market trading volume and activity [5]. 3. General Budget Expenditure - **Expenditure Growth**: In June, general public budget expenditure increased by 0.4% year - on - year, down from the previous value of 2.6%. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 3.4%, falling below the annual target of 4.4% [6]. - **Expenditure by Category**: - **Livelihood - Related Expenditure**: In June, social security and employment and health expenditures increased by 8.2% and 5.6% year - on - year respectively, showing resilience, while education expenditure growth slowed to 2.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [6]. - **Infrastructure - Related Expenditure**: In June, expenditures on agriculture, forestry and water, transportation, and urban and rural communities decreased by 10.0%, 12.7%, and 8.1% year - on - year respectively. The year - on - year growth rate of narrow - based infrastructure investment in June was 2.0% (- 3.1 pct), showing a certain slowdown, which may be related to the infrastructure funding gap period [6]. - **Science and Technology and Debt Interest Expenditure**: In June, science and technology expenditure increased by 18.1% year - on - year, while debt interest expenditure decreased by 6.3% year - on - year. As of the end of June, the cumulative net issuance of national debt was 3.4 trillion, and the net issuance of local debt was 4.4 trillion, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 7.8 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the annual quota. The budget expenditure completion rate in the first half of the year was only about 48%, the same as last year, which may be restricted by the decline in non - tax revenue and the narrow - based infrastructure gap period [8]. 4. Government - Managed Fund Revenue - **Revenue Growth**: In June, national government - managed fund revenue increased by 20.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 8.2%), reaching a new monthly high since 2021. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the first half of the year narrowed to - 2.4%, approaching the annual budget target of 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to - 6.5% (previous value: - 11.9%) [9]. - **Revenue Progress**: In the first half of the year, government - managed fund revenue completed about 31% of the annual progress, slightly faster than the past two years. However, the real - estate recovery foundation is not solid, and the sustainability of the stabilization of land transfer revenue remains to be observed. Policy - side efforts such as urban renewal may become new directions [9]. 5. Government - Managed Fund Expenditure - **Expenditure Growth**: In June, national government - managed fund expenditure increased by 79.2% year - on - year, up 70 percentage points from the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 30.0%, exceeding the annual budget target of 23.1%, and the annual budget completion rate was about 37%, significantly faster than the same period last year [10]. - **Reasons for Growth**: The significant increase in government - managed fund expenditure is due to the continuous marginal improvement of land transfer revenue and the accelerated issuance and use of special bonds. In addition, the 500 - billion - yuan central financial institution capital - injection special treasury bonds for supporting large - state - owned commercial banks were issued in four installments from late April to early June, and most of them may have formed expenditures in June, supporting the year - on - year growth of central - level government - managed fund expenditure to reach 600% [10].
2025年6月财政数据点评:如何看待上半年财政形势?
EBSCN· 2025-07-27 12:36
Revenue Analysis - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national general public budget revenue from January to June 2025 is -0.3%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure is +3.4%, down from +4.2%[1] - Government fund budget revenue shows a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -2.4%, improving from -6.9% previously[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In June, tax revenue shows a year-on-year growth of +1.04%, an improvement compared to May[3] - The domestic consumption tax in June increased by +1.96%, while the vehicle purchase tax rose by +5.99%, indicating a positive contribution from automotive consumption[4] - The corporate income tax grew by +2.73%, reflecting a low base effect, but remains lower than the growth rate of value-added tax[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in June increased significantly by +20.8%, recovering from -8.1% the previous month, driven by land sales[25] - The expenditure of government funds in June surged by +79.2%, compared to +8.8% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures showing a year-on-year growth of +5.9%[25] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure growth in June is +0.38%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure in June fell by -8.80%, while social security and health expenditures also saw declines[15] - The completion rate for general public budget revenue from January to June is 48.8%, lower than the average of the past five years[15]
什么是中央水库移民扶持基金?
蓝色柳林财税室· 2025-05-30 07:27
Group 1 - The Central Reservoir Resettlement Support Fund includes three funds: the Large and Medium-sized Reservoir Resettlement Support Fund, the Inter-provincial Large and Medium-sized Reservoir Fund, and the Three Gorges Reservoir Fund, established based on various regulations to support the livelihoods of reservoir resettlers and infrastructure development in resettlement areas [3][4] - The fund is collected from electricity users or those with power generation income from inter-provincial large and medium-sized reservoirs, aimed at addressing the economic development and other issues faced by reservoir resettlers [3][4] Group 2 - The collection scope of the Large and Medium-sized Reservoir Resettlement Support Fund applies nationwide, excluding the Tibet Autonomous Region, and is charged to provincial grid enterprises based on the total electricity sold within their respective regions [5] - The Inter-provincial Large and Medium-sized Reservoir Fund is collected from power generation facilities with a capacity of 25,000 kW or more, while the Three Gorges Reservoir Fund is based on the actual electricity sold by the Three Gorges power station [6] Group 3 - The collection standards for the Large and Medium-sized Reservoir Resettlement Support Fund vary by region, ranging from 1.425 cents to 6.225 cents per kWh, while the Inter-provincial Large and Medium-sized Reservoir Fund and the Three Gorges Reservoir Fund are both capped at 8 cents per kWh [7] Group 4 - The application for the Central Reservoir Resettlement Support Fund is standardized using the "General Non-tax Revenue Declaration Form," with payers required to declare and pay through self-declaration, while relevant grid enterprises handle the collection on behalf of the tax authorities [8] - The fund is collected monthly, with declarations and payments due by the 15th of each month [8] Group 5 - Annual reconciliation of the Central Reservoir Resettlement Support Fund is to be completed by the end of March of the following year based on actual electricity sales [9] Group 6 - The fund provides exemptions for distributed photovoltaic power generation self-consumed electricity, as per the relevant notification from the Ministry of Finance [10] Group 7 - The Central Reservoir Resettlement Support Fund is classified as a government fund, with revenues fully allocated to the central treasury under specific budget categories [11]
2025年4月财政数据点评:积极财政:加快节奏
Revenue Insights - In the first four months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%[6] - In April 2025, the monthly revenue growth rate was 1.9%, up from 0.3% in March[6] - Tax revenue for the same period was 65,556 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1%[8] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure from January to April 2025 was 93,581 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%[9] - In April 2025, the expenditure growth rate was 5.8%, slightly higher than March's 5.7%[9] - Social security and education expenditures maintained high growth rates, indicating a focus on welfare[11] Government Fund Insights - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 6.7% year-on-year to 12,586 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025[17] - In April 2025, the revenue growth rate rebounded to 8.1%, compared to -11.7% in March[17] - Government fund budget expenditure grew by 17.7% year-on-year, with April's growth rate reaching 44.7%[17] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate, focusing on urban renewal projects and infrastructure improvements[22] - There is an emphasis on increasing local government special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds to support economic growth[22] - Risks remain due to uncertainties in overseas demand, which could impact future fiscal performance[23]
广义支出再提速——4月财政数据解读【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-20 14:59
Group 1 - The overall fiscal situation shows signs of recovery, with broad fiscal revenue and expenditure growth rates rebounding to -1.3% and 7.2% respectively for January-April, and April figures improving to 2.7% and 12.9% [1][3] - Tax revenue recovery and a slight rebound in the land market have contributed to the improvement in revenue, while special bond issuance and the initiation of special treasury bonds have supported expenditure growth [1][3] - The fiscal space for further stimulus remains, as economic growth shows resilience despite external shocks, although uncertainties in exports may pose challenges to fiscal balance [1] Group 2 - National general public budget revenue for January-April reached 8.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -0.4%, below the target growth of 0.1%, while April's revenue growth rose to 1.9% [3] - Central revenue turned positive with a growth rate of 1.6%, while local revenue decreased to 2.1%; tax revenue growth improved to 1.9% [3] - National fiscal expenditure for January-April was 9.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, exceeding the target growth of 4.4% [4] Group 3 - In April, the growth rates of value-added tax and consumption tax revenues declined, while corporate income tax growth significantly fell, and personal income tax saw a large increase of 67.5 percentage points [6] - Real estate-related tax revenues weakened, with both property tax and deed tax growth rates declining, although land value-added tax growth saw a slight narrowing of decline [6] Group 4 - In April, major expenditure categories showed mixed results, with transportation and technology spending growth exceeding 10 percentage points, while infrastructure spending's proportion continued to decline [8] - Government fund income growth narrowed to -6.7% for January-April, with April's growth turning positive at 8.1%, and land use rights transfer income growth rebounding to 4.3% [9] - Government fund expenditure growth increased to 17.7% for January-April, but remained below the target of 23.1%, with April's growth rising to 44.7% [9]
热点思考 | 解码地方“财政账” ——“大国财政”系列之二
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-03-03 13:24
Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the changes in local fiscal reports, highlighting the income structure and expenditure situation for 2024 and the budget expectations for 2025, providing insights into potential fiscal "bottlenecks" and revenue expectations for local governments [1][24]. Group 1: 2024 Local General Fiscal Situation - In 2024, local general fiscal revenue growth reached 1.7%, higher than the national average of 1.3%, primarily due to increased efforts in asset disposal and resource mobilization [2][8]. - Local general fiscal expenditure growth was 3.2%, lower than the national rate of 3.6%, attributed to sufficient central carryover funds supporting national fiscal spending [2][8]. - Local non-tax revenue saw a significant increase of approximately 12.5%, while tax revenue experienced an average decline of about 2% [2][9]. Group 2: 2024 Local Government Fund Performance - Local government fund revenue decreased by 13.5% in 2024, with a slight expenditure growth of 0.4% [3][12]. - The decline in land transfer income, which fell by 16%, significantly impacted government fund revenues, with 19 out of 25 provinces reporting decreases [13][12]. - Some regions compensated for the decline in land transfer income through project construction and investment revenues, with notable increases in specific funds in provinces like Guizhou [14][12]. Group 3: 2025 Local Fiscal Budget Goals - Local governments have raised their 2025 general fiscal revenue growth target to 3%, up from 1.7% in 2024, mainly due to expected tax recovery [5][18]. - Tax revenue is projected to grow by an average of 3.9%, while non-tax revenue is expected to decline by 11.6% [5][18]. - Local government fund revenue is anticipated to increase by 1.6%, while expenditure is expected to decrease by 6.5% [5][20].