证券研究报告 固收视角 税收端改善,狭义支出提速 2025 年7月财政数据点评 华泰研究 2025年8月22日|中国内地 | 张继强 | 吴宇航* | 仇文竹* | 朱逸敏* | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究员 | 研究员 | 研究员 | 联系人 | | SAC No. S0570518110002 | SAC No. S0570521090004 | SAC No. S0570521050002 | SAC No. S0570124070133 | | SFC No. AMB145 | wuyuhang@htsc.com | qiuwenzhu@htsc.com | zhuyimin@htsc.com | | zhangjiqiang@htsc.com | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | | | 财政部发布的7月财政数据显示.7月财政教据延续回暖态势,尤其税收端改善带动狭义财政支出有所提速, 广义财政则在银行注资特别国债、超长期特别国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery in both revenue and expenditure growth in July 2025, primarily driven by improved tax revenue and proactive government spending focused on public welfare [1][2][3]. Revenue Summary - In the first seven months of 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with July showing a growth rate of 2.6%, marking the first positive cumulative revenue growth of the year [1]. - Tax revenue showed a significant rebound, while non-tax revenue continued to decline, indicating a shift towards improved tax collection [1]. - Local revenue growth outpaced that of the central government, alleviating some fiscal pressure at the local level [1]. - Specific tax categories such as domestic consumption tax, corporate income tax, and personal income tax showed marginal improvements, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty reflecting a more active stock market [1]. Expenditure Summary - National general public budget expenditure rose by 3.4% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with July showing a recovery in growth [2]. - Both central and local fiscal expenditures were proactive, with central expenditure maintaining high growth rates and local expenditure turning positive, likely due to eased constraints from revenue [2]. - Key areas of expenditure included health care and social security, while infrastructure spending showed a slowdown [2]. - Government fund revenue growth saw a marginal decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7% in the first seven months, influenced by the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [2]. Government Fund Expenditure Summary - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 31.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with central and local levels growing by 4.5 times and 18.1%, respectively [3]. - The acceleration in bond issuance and utilization was a significant factor driving this growth, with 2.89 trillion yuan allocated to government fund budget expenditures [3]. - Despite a slight decline in the growth rate of government fund budget expenditure in July, it remained at a high level [3]. Overall Fiscal Outlook - The article concludes that there are positive signs in fiscal revenue and expenditure, with improved tax collection and accelerated local revenue growth helping to ease fiscal pressures [3]. - Central government efforts to maintain economic stability through direct funding for major projects and transfer payments are emphasized, alongside continued support for public welfare [3]. - The ongoing challenges in the economy, particularly in the real estate sector, require close monitoring, with expectations for continued proactive macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year [3].

一、基本情况 2010年，为促进核电事业发展，规范核电站乏燃料处理处置基金的征收、使用和管理，财政部、发展改革委、工业和信息化部印发 《核电站乏燃料处理处置基金征收使用管理暂行办法》（财综〔2010〕58号），自2010年10月1日起施行。 2017年，中华人民共和国第十二届全国人民代表大会常务委员会第二十九次会议通过《中华人民共和国核安全法》，其中第四十八条 规定，核设施营运单位应当按照国家规定缴纳乏燃料处理处置费用。 2018年，财政部印发《关于将国家重大水利工程建设基金等政府非税收入项目划转税务部门征收的通知》（财税〔2018〕147号）， 明确自2019年1月1日起，将核电站乏燃料处理处置基金划转税务部门征收。 二、政策依据 欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： （一）基本法律 《中华人民共和国核安全法》。 （二）主要文件 1.《财政部 发展改革委 工业和信息化部关于印发〈核电站乏燃料处理处置基金征收使用管理暂行办法〉的通知》（财综〔2010〕58 号）； 2.《财政部关于将国家重大水利工程建设基金等政府非税收入项目划转税务部门征收的通知》（财税〔2018〕147号）； 3.《国家税务总局关于国家重大水利工程建设 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - In June 2025, the fiscal data continued to show a warming trend. The revenue side had highlights such as personal income tax, and land sales revenue also marginally stabilized. The expenditure side continued to reflect the characteristics of fiscal efforts. Based on the current progress, the annual general budget revenue and expenditure targets are expected to be achieved, and there may be a small gap in government - managed funds, but policy - based financial tools and local debt limit space in the second half of the year may provide some flexibility. Overall, the fiscal situation is better than last year [11]. - The broad - based fiscal deficit of the two accounts combined in the first half of the year reached 5.3 trillion, significantly higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024, and comparable to 2022. It is expected to remain active in the second half of the year. Key areas to focus on in the future include major infrastructure projects and "urban renewal" policies [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. General Budget Revenue - **Revenue Growth and Composition**: In June 2025, the national general budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with non - tax revenue being a significant drag. Tax revenue increased by 1.0% year - on - year, while non - tax revenue decreased by 3.7% year - on - year and has been on a continuous downward trend this year. The decline in non - tax revenue is expected to continue, and tax revenue may be the focus of the revenue side this year [1]. - **Revenue Target Progress**: In the first half of the year, the cumulative year - on - year growth of general budget revenue was - 0.3%, 0.4 percentage points short of the annual target (0.1%), and it completed about 53% of the annual budget, slightly faster than the same period last year and basically in line with the average of the past five years [2]. - **Central and Local Revenue**: In June, central fiscal revenue decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while local fiscal revenue increased by 0.6% year - on - year [2]. 2. Tax Structure - **Main Tax Items**: - **Value - Added Tax and Personal Income Tax**: In June, the year - on - year growth rates of value - added tax and personal income tax were 6.8% and 5.0% respectively, showing a slight decline from the previous values. However, from the perspective of cumulative year - on - year growth and absolute scale in the first half of the year, they were at relatively high levels in recent years. The sustainability of the year - on - year increase in personal income tax remains to be observed [3]. - **Consumption Tax and Corporate Income Tax**: In June, corporate income tax increased by 2.7% year - on - year (previous value: 0.0%), and vehicle purchase tax increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The acceleration of consumption tax (2.0%) deviated from the year - on - year decline in social retail sales, which may reflect differences in the tax collection rhythm within the year [3]. - **Real Estate - Related Taxes**: In June, the year - on - year decline of transaction - related taxes (deed tax, land value - added tax) narrowed slightly, and the year - on - year growth rates of holding - related taxes such as property tax and arable land occupation tax were 20.7% and 9.6% respectively, which may be related to the rebound in the new construction and construction area of real estate, but the investment side is still at the bottom - grinding stage [4]. - **Stamp Duty and Securities Transaction Stamp Duty**: In June, stamp duty and securities transaction stamp duty increased by 30.7% and 67.1% year - on - year respectively, mainly due to the increase in stock market trading volume and activity [5]. 3. General Budget Expenditure - **Expenditure Growth**: In June, general public budget expenditure increased by 0.4% year - on - year, down from the previous value of 2.6%. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 3.4%, falling below the annual target of 4.4% [6]. - **Expenditure by Category**: - **Livelihood - Related Expenditure**: In June, social security and employment and health expenditures increased by 8.2% and 5.6% year - on - year respectively, showing resilience, while education expenditure growth slowed to 2.4% (previous value: 3.5%) [6]. - **Infrastructure - Related Expenditure**: In June, expenditures on agriculture, forestry and water, transportation, and urban and rural communities decreased by 10.0%, 12.7%, and 8.1% year - on - year respectively. The year - on - year growth rate of narrow - based infrastructure investment in June was 2.0% (- 3.1 pct), showing a certain slowdown, which may be related to the infrastructure funding gap period [6]. - **Science and Technology and Debt Interest Expenditure**: In June, science and technology expenditure increased by 18.1% year - on - year, while debt interest expenditure decreased by 6.3% year - on - year. As of the end of June, the cumulative net issuance of national debt was 3.4 trillion, and the net issuance of local debt was 4.4 trillion, with a total net issuance of government bonds of 7.8 trillion, accounting for nearly 60% of the annual quota. The budget expenditure completion rate in the first half of the year was only about 48%, the same as last year, which may be restricted by the decline in non - tax revenue and the narrow - based infrastructure gap period [8]. 4. Government - Managed Fund Revenue - **Revenue Growth**: In June, national government - managed fund revenue increased by 20.8% year - on - year (previous value: - 8.2%), reaching a new monthly high since 2021. The cumulative year - on - year decline in the first half of the year narrowed to - 2.4%, approaching the annual budget target of 0.7%. The cumulative year - on - year decline in state - owned land use right transfer revenue narrowed to - 6.5% (previous value: - 11.9%) [9]. - **Revenue Progress**: In the first half of the year, government - managed fund revenue completed about 31% of the annual progress, slightly faster than the past two years. However, the real - estate recovery foundation is not solid, and the sustainability of the stabilization of land transfer revenue remains to be observed. Policy - side efforts such as urban renewal may become new directions [9]. 5. Government - Managed Fund Expenditure - **Expenditure Growth**: In June, national government - managed fund expenditure increased by 79.2% year - on - year, up 70 percentage points from the previous value. The cumulative year - on - year growth in the first half of the year was 30.0%, exceeding the annual budget target of 23.1%, and the annual budget completion rate was about 37%, significantly faster than the same period last year [10]. - **Reasons for Growth**: The significant increase in government - managed fund expenditure is due to the continuous marginal improvement of land transfer revenue and the accelerated issuance and use of special bonds. In addition, the 500 - billion - yuan central financial institution capital - injection special treasury bonds for supporting large - state - owned commercial banks were issued in four installments from late April to early June, and most of them may have formed expenditures in June, supporting the year - on - year growth of central - level government - managed fund expenditure to reach 600% [10].

Revenue Analysis - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of national general public budget revenue from January to June 2025 is -0.3%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure is +3.4%, down from +4.2%[1] - Government fund budget revenue shows a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of -2.4%, improving from -6.9% previously[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In June, tax revenue shows a year-on-year growth of +1.04%, an improvement compared to May[3] - The domestic consumption tax in June increased by +1.96%, while the vehicle purchase tax rose by +5.99%, indicating a positive contribution from automotive consumption[4] - The corporate income tax grew by +2.73%, reflecting a low base effect, but remains lower than the growth rate of value-added tax[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in June increased significantly by +20.8%, recovering from -8.1% the previous month, driven by land sales[25] - The expenditure of government funds in June surged by +79.2%, compared to +8.8% in the previous month, with land-related expenditures showing a year-on-year growth of +5.9%[25] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure growth in June is +0.38%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous month[15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure in June fell by -8.80%, while social security and health expenditures also saw declines[15] - The completion rate for general public budget revenue from January to June is 48.8%, lower than the average of the past five years[15]

欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 一、基本情况 中央水库移民扶持基金包括大中型水库移民后期扶持基金、跨省际大中型水库库区基金、三峡水库库区 基金三项基金，依据《大中型水利水电工程建设征地补偿和移民安置条例》、《国务院关于完善大中型 水库移民后期扶持政策的意见》（国发〔2006〕17号）、《长江三峡工程建设移民条例》等文件设立， 主要对电力用户或有发电收入的跨省大中型水库征收，用于水库移民生产生活补助，支持库区及移民安 置区基础设施建设、维护经济发展，以及解决水库移民其他遗留问题。2018年，财政部印发《关于将国 家重大水利工程建设基金等政府非税收入项目划转税务部门征收的通知》（财税〔2018〕147号），明 确自2019年1月1日起，将中央水库移民扶持基金（含大中型水库移民后期扶持基金、三峡水库库区基 金、跨省际大中型水库库区基金）划转税务部门征收。 二、政策依据 1.《大中型水利水电工程建设征地补偿和移民安置条例》； 2.《长江三峡工程建设移民条例》； 3.《国务院关于完善大中型水库移民后期扶持政策的意见》（国发〔2006〕17号）； 4.《财政部关于印发〈大中型水库移民后期扶持基金征收使用管理暂行办法〉的通知》（ ...

报 告 正 文 土地市场边 际回 暖 。 广义财政来看，1-4月广义财政收入、支出增速分别回升至-1.3%、7.2%，单独看4月当 月的表现，4月广义财政收入和支出增速较上月分别回升4.4、2.8个百分点至2.7%、12.9%。收入端来看，税收 收入延续修复以及土地市场有所回暖带动了收入端的改善；支出端来看，专项债发行保持较快速度，叠加特别 国债开启发行的背景下，广义财政积极发力的态势延续。 财政加码空间仍存。 从4月经济和财政数据来看，外部冲击下，经济增长具备一定韧性，尤其是生产端和消费 端，外需虽有回落但仍处较高水平。往后看，若关税变化下出口不确定性加大，并向通胀、就业等传导，财政 收支平衡或面临挑战，年内财政加码的空间仍然存在。 财政收入增速延续回升。 1-4月，全国一般公共预算收入8.06万亿元，同比增长-0.4%，低于0.1%的目标增 速，4月当月全国财政收入增速继续回升至1.9%。分项来看，中央收入同比增速由负转正至1.6%，地方收 入同比增速回落至2.1%；税收收入增速较上月回升4.1个百分点，由负转正至1.9%，非税收入增速延续放 缓至1.7%。从进度来看，今年前4个月公共财政收入的完成进度为 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源宏观 ，作者赵伟 贾东旭等 申万宏源证券研究所 | 宏观研究部 作者： 赵伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯 倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 侯倩楠 摘要 申万宏源宏观 . 强化非税收入，中西地区加力盘活国有资源，东部加强国有资本经营收入。 中西部地区中，山西、内蒙 古、新疆非税收入增速均超20%，或主因矿产等资源出让收入带动；东部地区，北京积极扩大市属机关所 办企业上缴收益试点范围，促使国有资本经营收入增长97%。 二问：2024年地方政府性基金表现？土地出让收入拖累明显，超长期特别国债有效支撑 2024年地方本级政府性基金收入下降明显，支出小幅正增长。 2024年地方本级政府性基金收入同 比-13.5%，支出同比0.4%。从各地财政预算执行报告来看，西藏外的30个地区中，仅8地政府性基金收入 实现增长；22个地区政府性基金收入明显下滑。 部分地区通过项目建设与投资收入补充地方本级政府性基金收入。 拆解贵州政府性基金收入可发现， 2024年其国家重大水利工程建设基金收入与大中型水库库区基金收入分别增长127.6%、69.8%，使得贵州 本级政府性基金收入总体增长1.5 ...