研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 日期 2026 年 2 月 25 日 行业 国债日报 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货2月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.730 | 112.790 | 112.960 | 112.930 | 0.230 | 0.20 | ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 02 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 美国联邦最高法院裁定特朗普政府无权援引《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA) 开征关税，而特朗普政府在取消 IEPPA 关税的同时宣布开征 122 条款临时关税且 威胁加征更多关税，国际贸易形势的混乱势必带来更多避险需求并抑制经济增长 前景，加上美伊冲突一触即发且俄乌谈判毫无进展，来自宏观市场和地缘政治的 避险需求推动伦敦黄金企稳回升至 5150 美元/盎司上方。我们判断贵金属中长期 上涨驱动力不变，贵金属板块已有从 1 月底暴跌中恢复的迹象，建议投资者继续 持偏多思路参与交易；但波动性 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 央行"普降甘霖"。 二是2025年10月5000亿元新型政策性金融工具投放完毕，加之2026年1月央行结构性货币政策工具降息、加量、扩围，会带动今年一季度信贷 较大规模投放。以上都会在一定程度上带来资金面收紧效应。 由此，央行2月加量续做MLF，延续较大规模中期流动性净投放，能够有效应对潜在的流动性收紧态势，引导资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状 态。这在助力政府债券发行，引导银行稳固信贷支持力度的同时，也在释放数量型政策工具持续加力信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 中金公司研报认为，2026年货币市场流动性或继续维持充裕，在稳汇率、稳通胀目标影响下，中国央行货币政策可能进一步加大放松力度。 中国人民银行2月24日发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2月25日，将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开 展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 鉴于本月有3000亿元MLF到期，央行2月通过MLF净投放3000亿元。这是央行连续12个月加量操作MLF。 本周2.2万亿元逆回购到期 "2月有3000亿MLF到期，意味着2月MLF续作加量3000亿，为连续第12月加量，加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The precious metals market is volatile. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver should be carefully participated in. The copper and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Alumina prices may have potential upward drivers. Lead is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and zinc should be traded within a range. Carbonate lithium prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Tin is recommended to be bought on dips. For the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see, with radical investors considering short - term long positions in some contracts. In the agricultural product market, different products have different trends and trading strategies. In the energy and chemical industry, different products also have corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand situations [1][2][3][5][6][8]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold and silver prices fell in the night session yesterday. Gold fell by 5142 dollars/ounce, and silver fell by 1.24% to 87 dollars/ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump's "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday, and inflation - related statements were made by Fed officials. Domestic gold ETF had a small inflow, and inventory changes occurred in various markets [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious in participating in the silver market [1]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices strengthened significantly in the night session yesterday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper ore remains tight. Trump's plan to use AI to set reference prices for key minerals may intensify concerns. The demand shows certain characteristics such as spot premiums and post - festival inventory accumulation [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work, US tariff policies, and overseas production capacity changes [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.42% compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is generally loose, but there may be upward drivers, and the upward space depends on the marginal change of the supply - demand pattern [3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On February 24, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24625 yuan/ton and 16670 yuan/ton respectively, with different price changes compared with the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For lead, the processing fee at the mine end is low, production decreased in February, and demand is limited. For zinc, the processing fee is also low, production decreased seasonally, and the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short lead on rallies and trade zinc within the range of 23500 - 25500 yuan/ton [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 164,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.52% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of lithium - related products increased. Supply decreased in February, and demand also decreased seasonally. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1 [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to concerns about lithium ore export blockades and good expectations for material production in March [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices strengthened significantly yesterday [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and there are concerns about Indonesian policies. The demand shows strong premiums and increased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main contract of rebar 2605 closed at 3030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The demand for building materials is weak, but supply decreased significantly year - on - year. The demand for plates is stable, and exports are high. There is significant inventory accumulation during the festival [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in rebar 2605. The reference range for RB05 is 3000 - 3060 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 closed at 743 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. Port inventory is high, and there are structural contradictions [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 735 - 765 [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main contract of coking coal 2605 closed at 1108.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill profits are poor, and subsequent blast furnace production may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no subsequent plan. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and radical investors can try short - term long positions in coking coal 2605. The reference range for JM05 is 1080 - 1140 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. US soybean crushing is strong, and export concerns are alleviated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans will enter a volatile period, and attention should be paid to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market is also volatile, and attention should be paid to customs policies and South American production [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices continued to rise, and most spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. However, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain after the temperature rises. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and port inventories are low, but downstream is in a loss state [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the Spring Festival, deep - processing enterprises in North China will replenish inventory, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell yesterday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is in the late stage of seasonal production reduction, and the demand decreased in February [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are weak. The resonance of late - stage seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectations is weakened. An inverse hedging strategy can be adopted. Attention should be paid to subsequent production and biodiesel policies [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5252 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the pricing of the northern hemisphere's production increase is completed, and the focus is on Brazil's new - season production expectations. Domestically, the supply is more relaxed, and the inventory will reach a high level after March [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 yuan/ton [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price rose and then fell overnight, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated and closed flat. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose to a recent high [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Globally, the cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% in 26/27, and consumption and exports are expected to increase. In the US, imports from India increased. Domestically, the rising ICE cotton price helps the domestic cotton price strengthen [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range of 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and some spot prices increased [7]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to run at a low level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The demand is weakening, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Industrial customers are advised to pay attention to hedging opportunities on rallies [7]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices weakened across the board [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonally, the slaughter volume will increase as the upstream and downstream resume work. The supply is strong and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival, and both futures and spot prices are expected to be weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE rose slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China is 6640 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is relieved as there is no new device put into operation in the first half of the year, and some existing devices reduce production or stop. The import window is closed, and the demand is weak currently but will enter the peak season in March and April [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate strongly, and the upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran incident [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: v05 closed at 4963, an increase of 0.6% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: PVC is suppressed by high inventory, with large supply and low demand as downstream factories have not resumed work. The real estate market is weak [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The CFR China price of PX is 933 dollars/ton, and the spot price of PTA in East China is 5285 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 62 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX is at a high level, and attention should be paid to seasonal maintenance. The supply of PTA is at a medium level, and the polyester factory load is at a seasonal low. The overall inventory pressure is not large, and the profit of polyester products has improved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the view of long - term allocation of PX and pay attention to buying opportunities. PTA has seasonal inventory accumulation, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. The processing fee has reached a high level, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 closed at 1061, an increase of 1.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass inventory increased during the holiday, and the price is stable. The supply decreased significantly, and the inventory is at a high level. The downstream is not yet in operation, and the price is affected by macro - expectations [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to buy 09 and sell 01 for a positive spread [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 6620 yuan/ton, and the basis is weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In the short term, the supply pressure increases as new device put - into - operation decreases and some devices stop unexpectedly. The demand is low currently as downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, due to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, weak basis, and weak supply - demand, the price will fluctuate. The upward space is limited by the import window. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran incident. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly but the contradiction is still large, and it is recommended to short on rallies [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China is 3648 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 86 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure is relieved as some devices are transferred or under maintenance. The import supply decreases. The inventory in some ports in East China has increased to 900,000 tons, and the polyester load is seasonally low. The overall inventory pressure is not large [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Inventory accumulation is expected, and de - stocking may start in March. The current valuation is low, and attention should be paid to phased long - position opportunities [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices have been fluctuating recently as the market is waiting for the result of the US - Iran negotiation on the 26th. The current oil price contains a risk premium of about 10 dollars/barrel [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of Russian oil may face pressure due to EU policies, but the loading volume remains stable. The short - term core factor is the US - Iran geopolitical risk. In the medium - term, the production capacity of some countries is continuously released [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current trading core is the US - Iran geopolitical risk, with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait for the oil price to reach a high point and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [10]. Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rose significantly yesterday. The spot price in East China is 7700 yuan/ton, and the overseas price is stable with a slight increase. The import window is closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. The downstream enterprise inventory is high, and the downstream is on holiday and will resume work after the Lantern Festival [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, pure benzene will fluctuate strongly due to inventory accumulation and marginal improvement in supply - demand and geopolitical factors. Styrene will fluctuate as the inventory is normal, the basis is strong, and the supply increases while the demand decreases [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 closed at 1184, an increase of 1.9% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased, and the price is stable. The supply is large, and the demand is weak as there is a production - reduction expectation for photovoltaic glass and float glass [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply increases and the demand is weak, and the valuation is low. It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Monetary Policy - The central bank will conduct a 600 billion MLF operation today, with 300 billion MLF maturing this month, marking the 12th consecutive month of increased operations, though the scale is smaller than last month's 700 billion[3] - The February LPR is set at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans, remaining unchanged for 9 months[3] - The capital market is stable, with short-term monetary policy in an observation phase, and the central bank is leaning towards using OMO to adjust market liquidity[3] Global Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. has officially begun imposing a 10% global tariff, with plans to increase it to 15%, affecting various industries including large batteries and industrial chemicals[3] - China is closely monitoring the situation and may adjust its countermeasures regarding tariffs on U.S. products, including fentanyl[3] Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.36%, with total trading volume reaching 22,020.62 billion, an increase of 2,193.82 billion from the previous trading day[4] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.76%, S&P 500 up 0.77%, and Nasdaq up 1.04%[4] Bond and Interest Rates - The yield on the 10-year government bond is at 1.8053%, with a change of +0.92 BP[4] - The average rates for R001 and R007 are 1.4518% and 1.6102%, respectively[4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include petroleum and petrochemicals (+5.53%), building materials (+3.71%), and basic chemicals (+3.45%), while media, computers, and retail sectors saw declines[4]

对于后续市场走向，王青认为，2025年6月以来LPR报价一直没有变化，背后的根本原因是受出口 持续偏强、以高技术制造业为代表的新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，2025年，宏观经济顶住外部经贸 波动压力及国内房地产市场调整等影响，顺利完成全年经济增长目标。2026年1月，央行根据经济金融 形势需要，先行推出一揽子结构性货币政策，强化对科技创新、小微企业等国民经济重点领域和薄弱环 节的支持力度。"值得注意的是，高频数据显示，2026年一季度我国出口还会处于偏强状态，物价水平 有望延续温和回升势头。这些都为当前货币政策保持定力提供了支撑。"王青表示。 业内人士普遍认为，当前进入政策观察期。"今年的央行工作会议提及促进社会综合融资成本低位 运行，降成本目标落脚在低位运行的状态，而当前我国一般贷款加权平均利率运行在历史低位。在当下 实体经济融资成本已相对较低，而银行息差有待修复的环境下，国内降息的紧迫性并不高，实际操作节 奏可能取决于信贷需求修复情况，需关注一季度各项金融数据成色。"中信证券首席经济学家明明如是 分析。 责任编辑：杨喜亭 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2月24日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为： ...

专业人士分析：中期流动性保持净投放，显示货币政策延续支持性立场，有助于支持银行加大信贷投放 力度，支持政府债券发行，稳定市场预期。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，今天，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000 亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。由于本月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着当月MLF净 投放量达3000亿元，为连续第12个月加量续作。 央行今天将在香港发行500亿元央行票据 今天，中国人民银行计划通过香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU）债券投标平台，招标发 行2026年第一期和第二期中央银行票据，发行量分别为人民币300亿元和人民币200亿元。此次央行票据 发行旨在丰富香港高信用等级人民币金融产品，完善香港人民币收益率曲线。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean stock markets reached historical highs, with the Nikkei 225 index touching 58,000 points, up approximately 1.2% [1] - The KOSPI index in South Korea opened with a 1% increase, surpassing the 6,000 points mark for the first time [1] Company Highlights - Samsung Electronics' stock rose about 1%, reaching a new historical high, with a market capitalization nearing $1 trillion. Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Macquarie have collectively raised their target prices, predicting a strong price cycle for DRAM and NAND lasting at least two years, with net profits expected to grow tenfold from 2025 to 2028 [1] - SK Hynix's market capitalization is approximately $480 billion, with a slight increase of about 0.2% [2] - South Korean automotive stocks also performed well, with Kia Motors rising over 12% and Hyundai Motors increasing nearly 6% [3] Currency and Economic Policy - The Japanese yen experienced significant depreciation, with a drop of over 1% against the US dollar on February 24, leading to increased pressure on the yen's value [6] - Concerns regarding further interest rate hikes were communicated by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, as investors reassess the central bank's monetary policy path [8] - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in April is increasing, but the country faces challenges such as economic contraction, rising inflation, and declining real wages [8]

转自：新华财经 针对外部政策扰动，巴尔金指出，美国最高法院对特朗普关税的裁决"增加了经济的不确定性"，但他认 为当前货币政策"处于应对风险的有利位置"，具备足够灵活性以应对潜在冲击。 编辑：崔凯 在通胀方面，巴尔金态度谨慎。他承认"整个经济中都能看到通胀放缓迹象"，但也明确指出"通胀数据 一直持续高于目标水平"。他强调："希望通胀能回落至2%，但希望数据能清晰显示这一点"，表明美联 储仍需更多确凿证据才会转向宽松。 劳动力市场方面，巴尔金观察到"有明显迹象表明就业市场已趋宽松"，但同时坦言"很难精准判断劳动 力供应状况"，反映出在移民、退休及参与率变动等多重因素交织下，就业数据解读存在复杂性。值得 注意的是，他引述企业反馈称"其定价权非常有限"，暗示成本传导能力减弱，或为未来通胀降温提供支 撑。 新华财经北京2月25日电 里士满联储主席托马斯·巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）就人工智能、通胀前景及货 币政策立场发表最新观点，强调当前经济正经历结构性调整，但不会因技术变革而剧烈动荡。 巴尔金表示，"预计人工智能不会导致经济出现剧烈变化"，但他同时指出，AI有望成为"推动生产率提 高的额外动力"。尽管如此，他 ...