对于后续市场走向，王青认为，2025年6月以来LPR报价一直没有变化，背后的根本原因是受出口 持续偏强、以高技术制造业为代表的新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，2025年，宏观经济顶住外部经贸 波动压力及国内房地产市场调整等影响，顺利完成全年经济增长目标。2026年1月，央行根据经济金融 形势需要，先行推出一揽子结构性货币政策，强化对科技创新、小微企业等国民经济重点领域和薄弱环 节的支持力度。"值得注意的是，高频数据显示，2026年一季度我国出口还会处于偏强状态，物价水平 有望延续温和回升势头。这些都为当前货币政策保持定力提供了支撑。"王青表示。 业内人士普遍认为，当前进入政策观察期。"今年的央行工作会议提及促进社会综合融资成本低位 运行，降成本目标落脚在低位运行的状态，而当前我国一般贷款加权平均利率运行在历史低位。在当下 实体经济融资成本已相对较低，而银行息差有待修复的环境下，国内降息的紧迫性并不高，实际操作节 奏可能取决于信贷需求修复情况，需关注一季度各项金融数据成色。"中信证券首席经济学家明明如是 分析。 责任编辑：杨喜亭 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2月24日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为： ...

专业人士分析：中期流动性保持净投放，显示货币政策延续支持性立场，有助于支持银行加大信贷投放 力度，支持政府债券发行，稳定市场预期。 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，今天，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展6000 亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，期限为1年期。由于本月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着当月MLF净 投放量达3000亿元，为连续第12个月加量续作。 央行今天将在香港发行500亿元央行票据 今天，中国人民银行计划通过香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU）债券投标平台，招标发 行2026年第一期和第二期中央银行票据，发行量分别为人民币300亿元和人民币200亿元。此次央行票据 发行旨在丰富香港高信用等级人民币金融产品，完善香港人民币收益率曲线。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite, the reversal of US tariff policies, the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange - rate driving foreign capital inflows, and the release wave of large models and the popularity of robots, stock indices are expected to show a strong performance [4]. - The unchanged LPR in February meets market expectations. Although there is potential inflation pressure on the bond market, the economic recovery momentum needs further observation. With a loose capital - market environment and strong bond - market allocation power, the bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. - Gold is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation due to factors such as the strength of the US dollar and market uncertainty. Future trends depend on US macro - economic data, Fed officials' speeches, and US tariff policies [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation, aluminum prices may rise slightly in the short - term, and nickel prices are expected to rise with a contraction in supply [12][14][19]. - In the black building materials sector, the black series is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play, and it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products have different strategies. For example, crude oil is recommended for mid - term layout, and methanol is suggested to be bought at low prices in the mid - term [57][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand situation of various products varies. For example, the pig market has an oversupply situation in the short - term, while the sugar market is not suitable for excessive short - selling due to potential production - ratio adjustments in Brazil in the future [80][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Indices - **Market Information**: The US imposed a 10% tariff on relevant goods, the central bank carried out a 600 billion yuan MLF operation, Musk proposed a satellite - launching plan, and a four - legged robot was released [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stock indices are expected to perform strongly in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices had slight changes, relevant entities were added to the export - control list, the LPR remained stable, and the central bank had a large - scale net capital withdrawal [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [6][7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices had different trends, and the COMEX precious - metal inventory decreased [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Gold will maintain a high - level oscillation, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: Copper prices rose, LME and domestic inventories changed, and the spot - futures basis and import losses also changed [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Copper prices are expected to turn to oscillation in the short - term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly in the short - term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak, but zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell, and inventory and basis data changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead industry is in a weak state, but strategic stockpiling by battery enterprises may support prices in the short - term [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and the cost and price of related products were stable [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel prices are expected to rise, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rebounded, and supply and demand had certain characteristics [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate may tighten after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking and production - recovery progress [21][22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term, and future price trends depend on ore - supply disturbances and supply - pressure relief [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless - steel prices rose, and inventory and production - related data changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price has strong support at the bottom, and a long - position view is maintained [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices rose, and inventory and trading - volume data changed [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Prices are expected to stabilize in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and position changed [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage and is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron - ore prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron - ore prices will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic terminal - demand start - up and policy guidance [33]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking - coal and coke prices fell, and relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the upward impetus for coking coal is not strong, and there is a risk of price correction. In 2026, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October [36][37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and soda - ash prices also rose slightly, with corresponding inventory and position data changes [38][41]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda - ash is expected to oscillate weakly and steadily in the short - term [40][42]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell, and the technical form was in an oscillating state [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market may enter an oscillating and volatility - reducing cycle. The future market of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the black - market trend, cost - push factors, and supply - contraction expectations [44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial - silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices fell. Relevant data such as inventory and basis changed [47][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial - silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to production changes in upstream and downstream enterprises and demand feedback [48][50]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization and inventory changed [52][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trading on the disk is recommended, and a hedging strategy of buying NR and selling RU2609 is suggested [55]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude - oil and related product prices rose [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term layout for crude oil is recommended, waiting for the end of geopolitical risks [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A mid - term strategy of buying at low prices is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis data was provided [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A short - position strategy is recommended [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Profits from non - integrated styrene production have been repaired, and a profit - taking strategy is recommended [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and cost changed [65][66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support prices, and attention should be paid to changes in production capacity and start - up [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene - glycol prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a need to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA inventory - accumulation cycle is about to end, and there is a mid - term opportunity to buy at low prices [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and profit changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern in the short - term, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy at low prices following crude - oil trends [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward space for PE valuation exists, and the supply - demand situation is in a seasonal off - peak period [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and relevant data such as production - capacity utilization, inventory, and basis changed [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and there is a long - term opportunity to buy the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: Hog prices fell, and the supply - demand situation was unbalanced [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at the bottom in the medium - term [80]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable with slight fluctuations, and the supply - demand situation was normal [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price is expected to have limited decline, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [82]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean export data, Brazilian soybean harvest data, and domestic soybean and meal inventory data were provided [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Protein - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [85]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm - oil production, export, and inventory data, as well as domestic and Indian oil inventory data were provided [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is currently weak, but a long - position strategy is recommended at low prices in the medium - term [87]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar production data from Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, as well as import data were provided [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the global sugar market. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the domestic market, and there may be a rebound after the end of the sugar - pressing season [90]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton export data, domestic cotton inventory and production - capacity utilization data, and relevant policy information were provided [91]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: US cotton prices rebounded, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for domestic cotton, with attention to downstream start - up [92].

Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean stock markets reached historical highs, with the Nikkei 225 index touching 58,000 points, up approximately 1.2% [1] - The KOSPI index in South Korea opened with a 1% increase, surpassing the 6,000 points mark for the first time [1] Company Highlights - Samsung Electronics' stock rose about 1%, reaching a new historical high, with a market capitalization nearing $1 trillion. Analysts from Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Macquarie have collectively raised their target prices, predicting a strong price cycle for DRAM and NAND lasting at least two years, with net profits expected to grow tenfold from 2025 to 2028 [1] - SK Hynix's market capitalization is approximately $480 billion, with a slight increase of about 0.2% [2] - South Korean automotive stocks also performed well, with Kia Motors rising over 12% and Hyundai Motors increasing nearly 6% [3] Currency and Economic Policy - The Japanese yen experienced significant depreciation, with a drop of over 1% against the US dollar on February 24, leading to increased pressure on the yen's value [6] - Concerns regarding further interest rate hikes were communicated by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, as investors reassess the central bank's monetary policy path [8] - The likelihood of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in April is increasing, but the country faces challenges such as economic contraction, rising inflation, and declining real wages [8]

转自：新华财经 针对外部政策扰动，巴尔金指出，美国最高法院对特朗普关税的裁决"增加了经济的不确定性"，但他认 为当前货币政策"处于应对风险的有利位置"，具备足够灵活性以应对潜在冲击。 编辑：崔凯 在通胀方面，巴尔金态度谨慎。他承认"整个经济中都能看到通胀放缓迹象"，但也明确指出"通胀数据 一直持续高于目标水平"。他强调："希望通胀能回落至2%，但希望数据能清晰显示这一点"，表明美联 储仍需更多确凿证据才会转向宽松。 劳动力市场方面，巴尔金观察到"有明显迹象表明就业市场已趋宽松"，但同时坦言"很难精准判断劳动 力供应状况"，反映出在移民、退休及参与率变动等多重因素交织下，就业数据解读存在复杂性。值得 注意的是，他引述企业反馈称"其定价权非常有限"，暗示成本传导能力减弱，或为未来通胀降温提供支 撑。 新华财经北京2月25日电 里士满联储主席托马斯·巴尔金（Thomas Barkin）就人工智能、通胀前景及货 币政策立场发表最新观点，强调当前经济正经历结构性调整，但不会因技术变革而剧烈动荡。 巴尔金表示，"预计人工智能不会导致经济出现剧烈变化"，但他同时指出，AI有望成为"推动生产率提 高的额外动力"。尽管如此，他 ...

【美联储理事警告：美联储货币政策可能无法应对AI引发的失业潮 】库克称，AI已引发美国劳动力市场的代际更迭，可能导致失业率上升，美联储可能无 法以降息应对，货币政策可能陷入两难——降息既无法有效应对结构性失业，又可能推高通胀；AI或先推高、后压低中性利率；生产率统计数据或需五到 十年才体现AI影响。另一理事沃勒认为，周一引发软件等行业股大跌的Citrini报告"夸大了AI对就业的潜在影响"，强调AI是种工具，不会替代人类。详见 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京2月25日电 波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）就美国经济前景与货币政策路径 发表系列讲话，释放出"维持利率稳定、聚焦数据验证"的明确信号。 在劳动力市场方面，柯林斯称近期数据"令人鼓舞"，尽管就业人口增速有所放缓，但她认为这"可能体 现出生产力提升和不确定性增加的综合影响"，并指出"就业市场在脆弱性之中或存在更多稳定性"。 针对外部扰动，她评估称，"最新关税消息并未大幅改变前景预期"，暗示美国最高法院裁定原有关税违 法及特朗普拟推新关税等事件，尚未动摇美联储对基本面的核心判断。 编辑：崔凯 柯林斯表示，"很有可能在一段时间内维持当前利率水平"，并强调货币政策应"保持耐心且审慎行事"。 柯林斯指出，当前政策立场"略具限制性"，"可能已接近中性利率水平"，但决策者仍需更多证据以确认 通胀持续向2%目标回落。她坦言："希望更有信心认为通胀正在缓解"，并重申美联储正"寻求更有信心 地确认通胀放缓进程已恢复"。 值得关注的是，柯林斯将高生产率增长纳入去通胀观察框架。她表示，正在密切关注"高生产率是否有 助于去通胀进程"，并透露目前企业反馈显示，人工智能（AI）主要作用 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •美国对六类商品加征10%临时关税 •美联储库克警告：AI或推高结构性失业 降息难解困局 •波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示，预计通胀将在今年晚些时候回落至目标水平，但货币政策应保持审慎与 耐心，大概率在一段时间内维持当前利率不变。 •日本经济产业大臣赤泽亮正表示，若美国实施10%新关税，部分日企可能面临超出现有15%协议的额 外负担。他称暂无访美谈判计划，但已通过电话要求美方确保日本待遇不低于去年协议水平，并强调美 日关系已从"竞争者"转为"特殊合作伙伴"。 •美联储博斯蒂克强调通胀优先 呼吁维护美联储独立性 •日本首相强硬表态反对进一步加息 央行称未受具体指令 •英国央行贝利释放降息信号 通胀回归轨道 【市场资讯】 •美国海关与边境保护局宣布，自2026年2月24日00:01（美东时间）起，对大型电池、铸铁及铁制配 件、塑料管道、工业化学品、电网设备和电信设备等六大类产品加征10%关税，有效期至7月24日。此 举独立于特朗普政府此前宣布的全球15%关税，美媒称白宫正推动将整体税率提升至15%。 •美联储理事丽莎·库克指出，人工智能正加速美国劳动力市场的代际更替，可能引发结构性失业上升 ...

2月24日，LPR报价如期出炉。人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，当日贷款市场报价利率 （LPR）为：1年期LPR为3%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两大报价均与上月保持不变。同时，这也是LPR 连续9个月保持不变。自2025年5月两大报价分别下行10个基点以来，LPR一直按兵不动。 在王青看来，受反内卷推进等影响，2026年物价水平会温和回升，但总体物价涨幅仍会偏低，货币政策 在包括降息在内的适度宽松方向上有充足空间。另外，2026年美联储会进一步降息，汇率因素对国内货 币政策灵活调整的掣肘也会减弱。 王青表示，2026年还需着力稳定房地产市场，预计监管层有可能通过单独引导5年期以上LPR报价较大 幅度下行，并结合财政贴息等方式，推动居民房贷利率更大幅度下调。这是现阶段缓解实际居民房贷利 率偏高问题、激发市场购房需求、扭转楼市预期的关键一招。 北京商报记者 董晗萱 "背后的根本原因是受出口持续偏强、以高技术制造业为代表的新质生产力领域较快发展等推动，2025 年宏观经济顶住外部经贸波动压力及国内房地产市场调整等影响，顺利完成全年经济增长目标；2026年 1月，人民银行根据经济金融形势需要，先行推出一揽 ...

点评：鉴于本月有3000亿元MLF到期，央行2月通过MLF净投放3000亿元。这是央行连续12个月加量操 作MLF。2月，央行还通过买断式逆回购加量投放中长期流动性。两个期限品种的买断式逆回购2月合 计加量续作规模为6000亿元，为央行连续第9个月通过买断式逆回购向市场注入中期流动性，加量规模 较上月的3000亿元进一步扩大。 NO.2在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率再创阶段新高 每经编辑：张益铭 | 2026年2月25日 星期三 | NO.1央行：将开展6000亿元MLF操作 据央行消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年2月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、 多重价位中标方式开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。 NO.32月LPR报价出炉：5年期和1年期利率均维持不变 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2026年2月24日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期 LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 点评：中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，这表明货币政策仍处于相机抉择模式，总量宽松加码需要 一定"触发剂"。后续降准降息落地，可能需要看到经济 ...