Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil indicates that future monetary policy measures may be adjusted and will not hesitate to continue the interest rate hike cycle if deemed appropriate [1] Group 1 - The Central Bank of Brazil is open to adjusting its monetary policy measures in response to economic conditions [1] - There is a clear indication that the Central Bank is prepared to continue raising interest rates if necessary [1]

日本央行行长植田和男表示，以可预期的方式适当减少购债规模；若收益率大幅上升，将灵活应对。 ...

日本央行将从2026年4月起每季度削减购债2000亿日元。 日本央行将从明年第二季度开始放慢削减购债步伐。 ...

日本央行今年三季度至明年3月份期间，将按计划削减购债规模。 ...

日本央行：将减少每月购买国债规模，预计2027年1月至3月的购买总额将约为2万亿日元。从2026年4月 起，每个季度每月减少约2000亿日元的日本国债购买量。 ...

拉加德称降息周期即将结束，因欧洲央行已处于应对不确定性的"有利位置"，但部分决策者近期暗示可 能仍需进行"微调"。 "市场完全理解了行长关于'处于有利位置'的表态，"德金多斯称，"即便在当前高度不确定的环境下，我 认为市场相信并已消化了如下预期——我们正无限接近中期内维持2%可持续通胀的目标。" 但不确定性仍然高企，尤其是受美国总统特朗普政策反复(特别是贸易政策)的影响。调查显示，经济学 家仍预期今年会再降息一次。 德金多斯表示，特朗普政策声明引发的欧元升值目前尚未对欧洲央行构成重大担忧。"1欧元兑1.15美元 的汇率水平不会对经济或通胀造成重大阻碍，"他指出，"相较于具体汇率水平，我们更需关注变动速度 ——升值或贬值的剧烈程度。目前来看，汇率波动仍相当可控。" 保持灵活 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行副行长路易斯·德金多斯表示，通胀率低于欧洲央行2%目标的风险已得到 控制。他在采访中称，尽管消费者价格涨幅预计将在2026年一季度放缓至1.4%，但不会动摇市场预 期。 与此同时，薪资涨幅正回落至与欧洲央行目标相符的水平。 "在我看来通胀下行的风险非常有限，"根据欧洲央行官网发布的访谈实录，德金多斯表示，"我们的 ...

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy in the second half of 2025 is characterized by "weak reality, strong shocks, and high volatility," with significant uncertainty and concerns about recession [1][8] - The U.S. economy shows signs of weakening core growth, with consumer spending support for GDP diminishing and inflation pressures re-emerging, potentially pushing CPI back to 3% by mid-year [2][26][32] - European economic improvement is limited, with weak domestic demand despite temporary boosts from fiscal deficits, and the European Central Bank expected to maintain a loose monetary policy with 1-2 rate cuts [2][9] - Japan's economy is under pressure from high inflation, with wage growth offset by rising prices, and a potential interest rate hike expected by the end of 2025 [2][9] Major Economies - The U.S. faces multiple pressures including consumption, inflation, and employment challenges, with rising fiscal deficit risks and delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [3][12] - U.S.-China trade relations are undergoing adjustments, with some tariffs being suspended, but structural issues remain unresolved, leading to ongoing tensions in non-tariff areas [3][4] - The overall economic landscape is marked by a fragile balance, with the potential for a weak recovery amid high volatility [8] Asset Markets - Global asset markets are expected to experience high volatility in the second half of 2025, with the S&P 500 potentially testing previous highs around 6150 points, but facing risks from inflation and trade negotiations [4][10] - U.S. Treasury yields are projected to remain elevated, fluctuating between 4.2% and 4.7%, with 4.5% acting as a critical support and resistance level [4][10] - The Japanese market is anticipated to fluctuate between 36,000 and 40,000 points, influenced by currency volatility and persistent inflation [4][10] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue their upward trend, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [4][10] Market Logic - The core market logic revolves around the interplay between policy expectations and economic realities, with high uncertainty stemming from U.S. fiscal and trade policies [5][8] - The weakening dollar may lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, enhancing the attractiveness of emerging market equities [5][8] - Investors are advised to navigate the complexities of the economic landscape by understanding policy directions and identifying structural opportunities amid volatility [5][8]

本文重点 观点来自： 6 月 11 日本周三直播 欢迎大家 点击【预约】 按钮 预约 我 下一场直播 日本市场则仍处于加息周期，整体处于流动性收缩状态。日本经历了30年通缩和异常宽松的货币政策， 目前正尝试回归正常化，包括提高利率和缩减国债规模。短期内这种政策调整导致市场表现乏力，表现 较弱。日本市场适合机会主义操作，若出现暴跌则是介入机会，否则维持观望。作为发达国家，日本治 理和基本面仍较稳健，但目前吸引力有限。 德国市场暂时未重点跟踪，主要因为其与美国市场高度相关，关注美国市场即可代表对德国的关注。 黄金方面，目前处于高位整理阶段。央行持续买入黄金，形成支撑，避免价格大幅下跌。美国美元走势 偏弱，短期难见显著反弹，因此黄金仍具备相对吸引力，适合作为配置资产。 总结来看，印度由于政策利好兑现且估值偏高，短期建议止盈谨慎；越南经济健康、估值合理，值得继 续关注；日本加息周期内表现乏力，适合等待机会；黄金保持稳定，美元弱势下仍可配置。朋友们如有 兴趣，可以关注我们全球配置的思路和服务，结合宏观与资产配置，实现收益稳健的目标。 以上内容仅为案例展示，不构成投资建议，投资有风险，交易需谨慎。 注：基金投顾服务由盈米 ...

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that the UK labor market will continue to weaken, leading the Bank of England to reverse its restrictive monetary policy [1] Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate is expected to rise above the Bank of England's modal forecast, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [1] - In May, employment numbers decreased by 109,000, marking the most significant drop since May 2020, which paints a concerning picture of the labor market [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - Deutsche Bank forecasts that the Bank of England's interest rate will decrease from the current 4.25% to 3.5% by the end of this year, and further to a low of 3.25% in the first quarter of 2026 [1]

日本央行副行长内田真一：央行正在缩减资产负债表，但许多央行不太可能重新采用传统的货币政策调 整方式。 ...