7月30日，国家发展改革委会同有关方面起草的《政府投资基金布局规划和投向工作指引（公开征求意 见稿）》（以下简称《指引》）和《加强政府投资基金投向指导评价管理办法（公开征求意见稿）》向 社会公开征求意见。公开征求意见的时间为2025年7月30日至2025年8月28日。 三是地方基金要找准定位，在省级政府统筹管理下综合考虑本地区财力、产业资源基础、债务风险等情 况，因地制宜选择投资领域。新设地方基金直投项目或其子基金投资项目要注重于地区特色优势产业、 区域创新能力提升，以及小微民营企业和科创企业支持孵化，带动社会资本有效参与。 四是政府投资基金要着力增加高端产能供给，聚焦产业技术创新和关键核心技术攻关，推动加快实现高 水平科技自立自强。其中，产业投资类基金要在产业发展方面发挥引领带动作用，围绕完善现代化产业 体系，支持改造提升传统产业、培育壮大新兴产业、布局建设未来产业；创业投资类基金要围绕发展新 质生产力，通过市场化方式投资种子期、初创期企业，兼顾早中期中小微企业，支持科技创新，解决重 点关键领域"卡脖子"难题。 《指引》要求，政府投资基金不得通过明股实债等方式变相增加地方政府隐性债务，除并购重组、定向 增发 ...

Economic Performance - The Politburo meeting affirmed the good performance of the economy in the first half of the year, with GDP growth reaching 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[2] - The meeting emphasized the need to consolidate the economic recovery and address prominent issues in economic operations, such as insufficient effective demand and low price levels[2] Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the importance of "bottom-line thinking" to safeguard domestic economic and social stability, prioritizing employment as a key policy goal[2] - It was stated that macro policies should continue to exert force and be implemented in a timely manner, with a focus on more proactive fiscal policies in the second half of the year[3] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains moderately loose, with expectations for 1-2 interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, totaling a reduction of 20-30 basis points[3] - The meeting indicated that structural monetary policy tools would be utilized to support technology innovation, boost consumption, and stabilize foreign trade, with a new focus on small and micro enterprises[3] Market Competition and Consumption - The meeting called for the promotion of a unified national market and the optimization of market competition order to eliminate disorderly competition[3] - Service consumption is emphasized as a new growth point, with per capita service consumption expenditure increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, accounting for 45% of total per capita consumption expenditure[3] Long-term Planning - The decision to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October to formulate the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal reflects a long-term strategic vision[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as crucial for achieving the long-term goal of socialist modernization, with a focus on new quality productivity and emerging pillar industries[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rhythm of macro - policies may change in the second half of the year. The downward trend of treasury bond yields remains the general direction. The equity market is expected to have a long - bull market. The core of bond market trading lies in controlling the rhythm of band trading, and it is maintained that the third quarter is the window for going long in the bond market in the second half of the year [1][7]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 730 Politburo Meeting Six Key Points of Concern 1. **Affirming the achievements of economic development in the first half of the year and a potentially stable and improving external environment** - In the first two quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% and 5.2% year - on - year respectively, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year. To achieve the 5% growth target, the GDP growth rate in the second half only needs to reach 4.7%, so the economic work pressure is relatively small [14]. - Compared with the April meeting, the external environment uncertainty has significantly decreased. The overall trend of the equal - tariff policy is clear, and Sino - US relations have continued to ease [15]. 2. **Macro - policies should be both continuous, stable and flexible** - Continuity and stability mean maintaining an actively expanding macro - policy to support the overall trend of the marginal improvement of the macro - economy [16]. - Flexibility and predictability aim to guide market expectations, and the possibility of policy discretion in the second half of the year may increase [16]. 3. **From "intensifying implementation" to "timely boosting", the policy rhythm may change** - In terms of rhythm, "timely boosting" reflects the difference in the macro - environment between April and July, and the flexibility of macro - policies will increase. The policy strength depends on the economic operation [18]. - In terms of quality, from "making full use" to "implementing in detail", the policy will shift from "expanding quantity" to "improving quality". Fiscal policy focuses on improving capital use efficiency, and monetary policy aims to promote the decline of social comprehensive financing costs [18][19]. 4. **Defining three major anti - involution tasks** - The tasks are to "govern the disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, promote the capacity governance of key industries, and standardize local investment promotion behaviors". The policy determination of anti - involution should not be underestimated [4][20]. 5. **More positive statements about the capital market** - The meeting proposed to "enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidate the momentum of the capital market's recovery and improvement". The equity market is expected to have a long - bull market [5][21]. 6. **Focusing on urban renewal in the real estate field** - The meeting only mentioned "implementing the spirit of the Central Urban Work Conference and carrying out high - quality urban renewal". The real estate market may still need further policy support [6][22]. Mapping to the Bond Market - In the process of promoting the decline of social comprehensive financing costs, the downward trend of treasury bond yields remains the general direction. With the increase in macro - policy flexibility, bond market fluctuations may expand. The core of bond market trading in the second half of the year lies in controlling the rhythm of band trading, and it is maintained that the third quarter is the window for going long in the bond market in the second half of the year [7][25].

Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with increasing uncertainties in the economic environment[5] - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods and proactive fiscal measures[7][8] Policy Direction - The government aims to maintain stable and flexible fiscal and monetary policies, with an emphasis on timely adjustments based on economic conditions[9][10] - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new fiscal deficits and special bonds is planned for 2025, with 5,550 billion yuan of long-term special bonds already issued by June 2025[11] Consumption and Services - The government is focusing on boosting service consumption, which is currently a weak point in the economy, by expanding the scope of trade-in policies to include service sectors[12][13] - The trade-in program for consumer goods is expected to generate over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales, accounting for more than 6.5% of total retail sales in the first half of 2025[12] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a slow recovery phase, with urban renewal initiatives being a key strategy to stabilize housing demand[25] - Despite a brief recovery in early 2025, real estate sales and investment have shown negative growth since May, necessitating further government intervention[25] Debt Management - The government is committed to managing local government debt risks, prohibiting the creation of new hidden debts, and promoting the clearance of financing platforms[26][27] - The focus is on transforming local financing platforms to operate independently from government control by mid-2027[27][28] Capital Market Stability - The capital market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 7.9% since the beginning of the year, stabilizing around 3,600 points[29] - Efforts will be made to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to maintain its upward momentum[29][30]

7月30日，据国家发改委网站消息，国家发改委向社会公开征求《政府投资基金布局规划和投向工作指引》(以下简称《工作指引》)和《加强政府投资基 金投向指导评价管理办法》(以下简称《管理办法》)意见。其中提出，政府投资基金要着力增加高端产能供给，聚焦产业技术创新和关键核心技术攻关， 推动加快实现高水平科技自立自强。 《工作指引》规定，政府投资基金要着力增加高端产能供给，聚焦产业技术创新和关键核心技术攻关，推动加快实现高水平科技自立自强。其中，产业投 资类基金要在产业发展方面发挥引领带动作用，围绕完善现代化产业体系，支持改造提升传统产业、培育壮大新兴产业、布局建设未来产业；创业投资类 基金要围绕发展新质生产力，通过市场化方式投资种子期、初创期企业，兼顾早中期中小微企业，支持科技创新，解决重点关键领域"卡脖子"难题。 《工作指引》明确，国家级基金要立足全局、抓大放小，重点支持国家层面现代化产业提质升级、关键核心技术攻关和跨区域重大项目建设，补齐产业发 展短板，突破产业基础瓶颈，聚焦少数关键领域发挥示范引领作用。鼓励国家级基金加强与地方基金联动，在前沿科技领域和产业链关键环节，结合地方 资源禀赋，通过联合设立子基金或对地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" as a critical period for achieving socialist modernization, focusing on "consolidating the foundation and making comprehensive efforts" [1][6][7] - The overall economic outlook is positive, with key economic indicators performing well and a strong emphasis on maintaining economic recovery momentum [1][9][10] Economic Policy - The meeting highlights the need for macroeconomic policies to be "continuous, stable, flexible, and predictable," aiming for sustained growth and maximizing policy effects [2][10][11] - Emphasis is placed on implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support economic stability [11][12] Consumption and Investment - The meeting stresses the importance of expanding service consumption and stimulating effective investment, particularly in the context of weak fixed asset investment growth [3][12] - The "old-for-new" policy has already released some elasticity in durable goods consumption, and there is a call to cultivate new growth points in service consumption [3][12] Supply-Side Policies - The meeting calls for deepening the construction of a unified national market and optimizing market competition order, while also addressing issues of local government debt and hidden debts [4][13] - Policies will focus on promoting high-quality development and addressing overcapacity in key industries [4][12] Capital Market - The meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum in capital market recovery [5][14] - There is a focus on ensuring that the capital market functions effectively and supports long-term investment [5][14] Transition from 14th to 15th Five-Year Plan - The meeting outlines the need for a smooth transition from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on urban renewal and managing hidden debts [5][14] - The importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in achieving long-term economic goals is highlighted [7][8]

策 略 研 究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 30 日 反内卷路径明细，十五五预期升温 ———申万宏源策略 7 月政治局会议点评 相关研究 - 证券分析师 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 (8621)23297818× chengxiang@swsresearch.com 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 报 A 股 策 略 证 券 研 与公司有关的信息披露 告 本公司隶属于申万宏源证券有限公司。本公司经中国证券监督管理委员会核准，取得证券投资咨询业务许可。本公司关联机 构在法律许可情况下可能持有或交易本报告提到的投资标的，还可能为或争取为这些标的提供投资银行服务。本公司在知晓 范围内依法合规地履行披露义务。客户可通过 compliance@swsresearch.com 索取有关披露资料或登录 www.swsrese ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has proposed significant policies for government investment funds, focusing on enhancing high-end production capacity, promoting technological innovation, and achieving high-level self-reliance in technology [2][4]. Group 1: Government Investment Fund Guidelines - The proposed guidelines emphasize that government investment funds should avoid investing in industries with structural contradictions and prevent blind following in emerging industries [2][6]. - The guidelines require that investments align with national industrial policies and support the upgrading of traditional industries while fostering new industries [4][5]. - Government investment funds are encouraged to collaborate with local funds to leverage regional resources and enhance funding effectiveness [5]. Group 2: Evaluation and Management - The management measures outline a comprehensive evaluation system that combines quantitative and qualitative assessments of fund operations, focusing on policy alignment, investment optimization, and execution capability [3][7]. - The evaluation results will be communicated to provincial governments and relevant departments, with incentives for high-performing funds and corrective measures for underperforming ones [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the second - half macro - policies and clarified the strategic claims and development ideas during the 15th Five - Year Plan period. Policies will continue to exert force and release policy effects. The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting reform while maintaining stability and progress [2]. - The "anti - involution" market is expected to continue, with a more market - oriented implementation in the industry. The meeting's policies on optimizing market competition order and capacity governance are related to the "anti - involution" concept [3][4]. - The conclusion of the China - US Stockholm talks and the Politburo meeting have a short - term positive impact on the capital market, increasing risk appetite, benefiting risky assets such as stocks, slightly raising the RMB exchange rate, and helping commodity prices regain an upward trend. However, long - term caution is still needed [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Macro - policy Summary - **Total policies**: Fiscal policy will be more active, accelerating government bond issuance and use, boosting consumption, and promoting high - quality "two major" construction. Monetary policy will be moderately loose to lower financing costs. There is no need for ultra - expected policies for now, and a certain interest - rate cut expectation has formed in the market [3]. - **Structural policies**: Structural monetary policy tools focus on science and technology innovation, consumption boosting, small and micro enterprises, and stable foreign trade. Reform - promoting policies emphasize developing new - quality productivity through science and technology innovation, building a unified national market, and optimizing market competition order [3]. Impact on the "Anti - Involution" Market - Although the term "anti - involution" is not directly mentioned in the meeting announcement, relevant concepts such as optimizing market competition order and capacity governance are reflected. The "anti - involution" market is expected to further develop in the capital market, and its implementation in the industry will be more market - oriented [4]. China - US Talks and Market Impact - The 90 - day extension of the China - US talks is a "fragile cease - fire", reducing short - term market uncertainty. There are still fundamental differences between China and the US in many aspects. In the short term, it is beneficial to the capital market, but long - term risks remain [4][5].

根据新华社报道，7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 会议指出，要坚定不移深化改革。坚持以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，加快培育具有国际竞争力的新 兴支柱产业，推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合发展。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市场竞争秩 序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两 个毫不动摇"，激发各类经营主体活力。 会议指出，"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，我国发展环境面 临深刻复杂变化，战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多，同时我国经济基础稳、优势多、 韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场 优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人才资源优势更加彰显，要保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应 变求变，集中力量办好自己的事，在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略 任务取得重大突破。 会议强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展要坚持马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论、"三个代 表"重要思想、科学发展观，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特 ...