▲当地时间2025年7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间的水平不变。图为美联储主席鲍威尔出席当天 记者会。图/IC photo 连续5次顶着特朗普压力不降息的美联储终于快顶不住了。 据新华社，在当地时间7月30日的美联储议息会议上，美联储还以9-2的投票维持联邦基金利率目标区间4.25%至4.50%之间不变，美联储主席鲍威尔还表 示，现在判断美联储是否会在9月的下次会议上降息还"为时过早"。但没过几天，支持美联储降息的"鸽派"声音突然成为主流。下一任美联储主席热门人 选沃勒在7月30日议息会议上就要求降息25个基点。 另据证券时报，当地时间8月4日，旧金山联储主席戴利表示，今年美联储可能需要降息两次。8月9日，美联储副主席鲍曼表示，支持今年降息三次并敦促 美联储在9月议息会议上启动降息。这一表态引发市场广泛关注。 美联储政策动向的重要观察工具、由芝加哥商品交易所开发的CME美联储观察工具也显示，美联储在9月会议上降息的概率已高达91.5%，无限逼近 100%。而此前其预测的降息概率分别是80.3%和89.4%。 一切迹象均显示，美联储将在9月开始降息已是板上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of political developments on the US dollar, particularly in light of recent weak employment data and President Trump's actions regarding labor officials and Federal Reserve appointments, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is currently at 98.47, with a slight decline of 0.03% from an opening price of 98.51 [1] - Following weak non-farm employment data, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September rising from 48% to 91% within a week [1] - Cumulative expectations for rate cuts by the end of the year have reached 60 basis points [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The political intervention in monetary policy has intensified market bets on aggressive easing, as traditional economic indicators alone would have already strengthened such expectations [1] - Analysts warn that continued erosion of the Fed's independence could lead to a long-term trust crisis in the market, complicating the pricing environment for the US dollar [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is stabilizing above the 50-day moving average of 98.1886, indicating a slight short-term bullish momentum [1] - However, the 100-day moving average at 99.4597 and the 200-day moving average at 103.1420 present resistance levels, suggesting that the dollar has not fully reversed its medium to long-term downtrend [1]

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts has escalated from policy disagreements to a broader struggle over economic governance, impacting global markets [1] - The U.S. government is under significant pressure to push for interest rate cuts due to rising fiscal burdens, with projected interest payments on federal debt reaching approximately $1.1 trillion for the fiscal year 2024 [1] - Political motivations are driving the urgency for rate cuts, as the current administration seeks to stimulate the economy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1][5] Group 2 - The contradiction in the U.S. strategy of imposing tariffs while advocating for interest rate cuts poses challenges, as high inflation complicates the feasibility of lowering rates [2] - The Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting rates due to persistent inflation, with the core PCE price index rising to 2.8% in June, exceeding expectations [2] - Employment data has shown signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate rising in July and previous job growth figures being revised downward, indicating a cooling labor market [3] Group 3 - Recent personnel changes within the Labor Department and the Federal Reserve may influence the voting dynamics on interest rate decisions, potentially facilitating a rate cut [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's independence is emphasized, as it resists political pressure, maintaining that it cannot compromise its credibility without risking capital flight and rising long-term interest rates [2][4] - The ongoing struggle between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve reflects deeper issues within the U.S. economic governance model, highlighting the unsustainability of a debt-driven growth approach [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from President Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly through the nomination of a "shadow chairman" and scrutiny of the Fed's renovation project, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump has intensified his criticism of Powell and is exploring ways to exert more control over the Federal Reserve, including the potential removal of the "60-vote rule" in the Senate [1][3][4]. - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve and focus on the renovation project may signal a push for more regulatory oversight and reform of the Fed's operations [2][4]. - The administration's narrative suggests that previous interest rate decisions by the Fed were politically motivated, aiming to assist Democratic candidates [2][4]. Group 2: Potential Reforms and Implications - If Trump successfully abolishes the "60-vote rule," it could allow for significant changes in how the Federal Reserve operates, including altering the composition of its board and potentially undermining its independence [3][4]. - Historical precedents show that presidential interference in Fed policy has occurred before, but Trump's approach is unprecedented in its intensity and frequency [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Strategies - Investors are advised to prepare for potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a maximum of 50 basis points before Powell's departure, followed by more significant cuts starting in June [9]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank presents trading opportunities, particularly as a more dovish Fed could lead to a decline in the dollar's value [9]. - The uncertainty surrounding the new Fed chair's stance could lead to volatility in U.S. equity markets, depending on whether the new chair maintains the Fed's independence or succumbs to political pressures [9].

这几个月来，围绕特朗普和鲍威尔之间的争吵一直没有停止。作为在特朗普第一任期被任命的美联储主席，鲍威尔拒绝特朗普大幅降息的要求而 遭到后者的严厉批评和大肆攻击，特朗普认为，鲍威尔让美国损失了"一大笔钱"，继续要求美联储将利率下调"一个点"。 按道理说，美国总统是有权力解雇美联储主席的。在一百多年前美国国会成立美联储的时候就有规定，美联储理事和主席只能"因正当理由"才能 被解职，避免美联储被政治压力而左右。 就目前的情况而言，特朗普及其团队并没有明确的证据证明有正当的理由去解雇鲍威尔。因此，他们开始拿美联储总部25亿美元的翻新工程找茬 说事，表示鲍威尔在处理这个工程上有不当的行为。参议院银行委员会民主党领袖伊丽莎白·沃伦讽刺道："特朗普最初试图胁迫鲍威尔的尝试失 败后，他和国会共和党人突然决定调查美联储在大楼翻修上的支出。" 虽然也有很多共和党人认为解雇鲍威尔是一个正确的选择，但是特朗普还是难免受到共和党内部的阻力，毕竟鲍威尔本人也是一个共和党人。一 些国会共和党人公开表示，解雇鲍威尔将是一个错误。如果特朗普解雇鲍威尔，美联储可能会失去对政治影响的独立性，并给美国经济的基础注 入不确定性。 特朗普和鲍威尔（右） ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the impact of U.S. tariff policies on international trade, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relationship and the implications for various countries including Canada, Mexico, and India. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Structure and Impact** The U.S. has implemented a tiered tariff structure with varying rates: - Optimal rate of 10% for trade surplus countries like the UK and Australia - Second tier of 15% for Japan, South Korea, and the EU - Medium rate of 20% for ASEAN countries, with the Philippines at 19% - Punitive tariffs of 25% for India and 35% for Canada and 25% for Mexico [2][4] 2. **U.S. Tariff Increases** Following August 7, the average U.S. tariff rate is expected to rise to 18%-19% from a previous 12%-13%, primarily due to a minimum 10% base rate plus additional extreme tariffs [12][13]. 3. **Impact on Imports and Exports** U.S. imports from China saw a significant decline, with a -44% growth rate in June, and a further drop of 3.3 percentage points in July, indicating a weakening in trade relations [3][16]. Despite this, China's overall exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year in July 2025, aided by a low base from the previous year and strong demand from ASEAN and Africa [17]. 4. **Geopolitical Implications** The punitive tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil reflect the U.S.'s strong geopolitical stance [1][4]. The U.S. has also utilized Section 232 to impose 100% tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, although companies like Samsung and TSMC are exempt due to their investments in the U.S. [1][4]. 5. **Market Reactions** The new tariff policies have led to fluctuations in market prices, such as a drop in copper futures due to import restrictions on certain copper products [6]. The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs has created volatility in international markets [7]. 6. **Trade Negotiation Challenges** Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations face disputes over funding usage, management rights, investment duration, and profit distribution, complicating the trade landscape [8]. The lack of clear definitions regarding transshipment goods has also led to friction in negotiations [5][11]. 7. **Federal Reserve Independence** Steven Meyer has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that fiscal policy should take precedence over monetary policy [26]. This reflects a broader debate on the role of the Fed in economic governance [25]. 8. **Future Tariff Outlook** The potential extension of tariffs set to expire on August 12 is under consideration, with indications that the U.S. may maintain these tariffs to ensure stable relations with China [20][21]. The overall outlook for U.S. tariffs remains uncertain, influenced by political dynamics and economic conditions [29][30]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The impact of U.S. tariffs on the Swiss economy due to new import taxes on gold bars, which has led to increased international gold prices and market uncertainty [9]. - The strategic use of tariffs as a tool for political leverage by the Trump administration, maintaining a high level of uncertainty to keep trade partners on edge [12]. - The role of Steven Meyer in shaping U.S. economic policy and his proposals for restructuring trade agreements to prioritize American interests [25][27].

智通财经APP获悉，据报道，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在采访中表示，美国预计将在10月底之前与 那些尚未达成贸易协议的国家基本完成谈判。 在此之前，特朗普政府实施的全面新关税已生效。一些主要贸易伙伴，包括加拿大、墨西哥和瑞士，仍 在努力争取与美国达成更有利的协议。 贝森特还重申了美联储独立性的重要性，但他表示，下一任美联储主席应该是"非常善于前瞻性思考， 而不是依赖历史数据"的人。美国总统特朗普曾表示，他渴望替换现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，原因 在于他们对降息问题存在分歧。 贝森特是寻找新任美联储主席人选的遴选委员会成员之一。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran by President Trump to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board represents a deep intertwining of monetary policy and political intervention, potentially leading to short-term benefits for risk assets through interest rate cuts, but posing long-term risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, inflation, and the credibility of the dollar, which may reshape global capital flows [2][18]. Group 1: Nomination and Political Implications - Trump's nomination of Miran is seen as a strategic move to penetrate the Federal Reserve, which is viewed as the global financial power center [4]. - Miran, known as the "chief architect" of Trump's economic strategy, is expected to push for a more dovish monetary policy, which aligns with Trump's criticism of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's high interest rates [5][6]. - The temporary nature of Miran's appointment allows the White House to avoid significant backlash from Congress while enabling him to influence the Fed's internal dynamics [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following Miran's nomination, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged to over 90%, leading to a decline in the dollar index [6]. - The market's sensitivity to policy signals has increased, with potential sell-offs if rate cuts are delayed or insufficient [7]. - The nomination is likely to intensify the existing divisions within the Federal Reserve, particularly between hawkish and dovish members, which could lead to a stalemate in upcoming meetings [6][8]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is heating up, with Miran's temporary role potentially positioning him as a candidate for a longer-term appointment if he demonstrates effective policy execution [8]. - The future chairperson's selection will directly influence monetary policy, including interest rate decisions and the strength of the dollar, making this a critical event for market participants [9]. - Miran's advocacy for reforms that could undermine the Fed's independence raises concerns about inflation risks and the trust in the dollar, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of global capital flows [10]. Group 4: Sector-specific Impacts - In the stock market, the expectation of interest rate cuts is likely to benefit growth stocks, while sectors reliant on imports may face challenges due to rising tariff costs [12]. - In the bond market, the anticipated rate cuts could lead to lower yields on U.S. Treasuries, although unexpected inflation spikes could trigger sell-offs in long-term bonds [13]. - The foreign exchange market may see the dollar under pressure, with currencies like the euro and yen gaining support, alongside commodities such as gold, which will continue to attract interest as a safe-haven asset [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is expanding its list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair to approximately 10 individuals, indicating a shift in the selection process and potential implications for market perceptions of Fed independence [1][4]. Candidate Selection Process - The candidate list now includes James Bullard, Marc Sumerlin, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Kevin Warsh, with Scott Bessent leading the selection process [1]. - Bessent was initially considered for the position but opted out, and he will conduct preliminary interviews with candidates before presenting a final list to Trump [1][2]. Candidate Backgrounds - James Bullard recently stepped down as the St. Louis Fed President and is now the Dean of Purdue University's business school; he has expressed interest in the Fed Chair position [3]. - Marc Sumerlin, who served as an economic advisor during the Bush administration, lacks direct Fed experience but has maintained business ties with Bessent [3]. Market Implications - The emergence of traditional economists Bullard and Sumerlin as potential successors to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell may alleviate market concerns regarding the politicization of the Fed, potentially affecting U.S. Treasury yield curves [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the appointment of Stephen Milan as a new Federal Reserve Board member following the unexpected resignation of Governor Kugler, with Milan's term set to last until January 31, 2026 [2][4] - Milan's appointment is seen as a temporary measure by President Trump, allowing him to make a more permanent selection for the Federal Reserve Board and potentially the next Fed Chair [5] - Milan has previously criticized the Fed's policies under Powell, particularly opposing interest rate cuts, but has shifted his stance to support rate reductions under the current economic conditions [6] Group 2 - The market is speculating on potential candidates to succeed current Fed Chair Powell, with Waller, Hassett, and Walsh being prominent names; Waller is viewed as a favorable choice for maintaining continuity in the Fed's leadership [8] - If the new Fed Chair is perceived as aligned with Trump's views, it could lead to negative market reactions due to concerns over the Fed's independence [8][9] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process involves multiple members, and even if a Trump-aligned Chair is appointed, it may not significantly influence the broader Federal Open Market Committee [9] Group 3 - Disagreements within the Fed are intensifying, as evidenced by the recent decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [11] - Two Fed governors voted against the rate decision, indicating a divide in opinions on monetary policy direction, with some advocating for a shift towards a more neutral stance to mitigate economic risks [11][12] - Inflation concerns are rising, with the Atlanta Fed President warning about persistent inflation risks due to changing tariff policies and supply chain issues, as consumer inflation expectations have increased [12]