证券研究报告 | 2025年12月25日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-24 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3940.94 | 13486.41 | 4634.05 | 14415.35 | 3911.33 | 1352.12 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.28 | 1.15 | 1.21 | 0.90 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 7739.28 | 11063.39 | 4063.75 | 3992.53 | 5025.69 | 510.88 | 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 策略快评:国信资配体系概览-低利率时代资产配置攻略 行业与公司 电子行业周报：电子上游通胀趋势延续，业绩预告期继续推荐存力+算力 农业行业快评:牧业大周期更新点评-重视牧业大周期反转，肉奶联动有 望打开成长空间 滔搏(06110.HK) 海外公司快评:三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加 深幅度 ...

Core Viewpoint - Waymo's autonomous vehicles are designed to handle situations where traffic lights are out by treating them as four-way stops, but the scale of the issue has led to operational challenges [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - Waymo reported that its vehicles successfully navigated over 7,000 instances of non-functioning traffic lights, but this led to a surge in requests for confirmation checks to ensure safety [1] - The increase in confirmation requests resulted in task backlogs and response delays, exacerbating traffic congestion on already crowded streets [1] Group 2: Service Suspension - Waymo temporarily suspended its services in San Francisco at the request of city officials to clear streets for emergency responders during a widespread power outage [1] - The company emphasized that this decision was made to prevent further congestion and to ensure that emergency vehicles could operate effectively during peak rescue times [1] Group 3: Industry Context - The power outage in San Francisco caused significant disruptions to public transportation and impacted Waymo's autonomous taxi services [1] - In contrast, Tesla's Robotaxi service reportedly was not affected by the power outage, as noted by Elon Musk [1]

Group 1 - Yu Minhong has selected a successor for Dongfang Zhenxuan, with Sun Jin, the vice president of New Oriental Education Technology Group, expected to take over as CEO [3] - ZTE has received several collaboration invitations from major AI model manufacturers, indicating a potential expansion of its AI ecosystem beyond its partnership with ByteDance [5] - Li Auto is merging its first and second product lines following the departure of Zhang Xiao, who is reportedly leaving to pursue entrepreneurial ventures [5] Group 2 - Nvidia plans to deliver its H200 AI chips to Chinese customers before the Lunar New Year, with an estimated shipment of 5,000 to 10,000 chip modules [5] - Mercedes-Benz has officially acquired a stake in Qianli Technology, potentially appointing a board member to enhance collaboration in AI and smart driving technologies [7] - Bilibili has denied rumors of a shift to a fully paid viewing model, leading to the arrest of individuals spreading false information [7] Group 3 - The BMW electric M3 is undergoing road testing, expected to feature 700 horsepower and a four-motor drive system [15] - ByteDance has launched a formal mathematical reasoning model, Seed Prover 1.5, achieving a score that meets gold medal standards in international mathematics competitions [17] - Alibaba has upgraded its voice model Qwen3-TTS, allowing for advanced voice design and imitation capabilities [20] Group 4 - Tesla's new car registrations in Europe have dropped by 28% year-on-year, with a significant decline in the EU market [21] - The number of new AI applications launched in China in the second half of the year reached 205, with a notable focus on in-app AI features [21] - Global smartwatch shipments are projected to grow by 7% by the end of 2025, led by brands like Huawei and Apple [21]

在资本追捧与业务狂奔的背后，Waymo用2025年证明：自动驾驶的最终考验并非技术本身，而是其能否在现实世界的混乱与秩序之间找到可靠的平衡 点。 12月20日，旧金山遭遇一场罕见的大规模停电。太平洋煤气与电力公司一座变电站突发火灾，导致全市30%区域交通信号灯熄灭。 然而，在这场城市应急事件中，最引人注目的并非人类司机的混乱应对，而是——Waymo自动驾驶车队的集体"宕机"。 在社交媒体传播的视频上，多辆白色Waymo车辆在漆黑路口停滞不前，红色尾灯在夜色中闪烁，后方排起长龙。 Waymo车辆停摆导致交通堵塞 而就在几天前，外媒The Information刚刚报道称，Waymo正与潜在投资者洽谈融资事宜，公司估值至少达1000亿美元。该报援引知情人士消息称， Waymo的融资规模或超100亿美元，预计将于明年年初落地。 从百亿级融资洽谈、千万级订单达成，到跨城市与跨国业务布局，再到突发事故与安全争议，2025年对于谷歌母公司Alphabet旗下自动驾驶子公司 Waymo而言，是商业化扩张提速、资本关注度飙升的一年，也是技术落地遭遇多重现实挑战的一年。 Waymo在自动驾驶赛道的攻坚之路充满突破与波折，也勾勒 ...

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 美股在圣诞节前的缩短交易日中继续小幅走高。上周首申失业金人数回落。VIX跌至14，创2024年12月初以来的最低点。美股除能源板块外，周三所有板块 均上涨，消费必需品领涨。耐克涨4.6%，苹果CEO库克购入该公司300万美元的股票。 美债收益率普跌，10年期跌2.73基点。 美元一度跌至近三个月低点，随后震荡上涨，最终较日低涨0.23%。人民币三连涨、一度逼近7.00大关。 加密货币疲软，比特币曾跌1.5%，随后反弹走平。以太坊反弹后仍微跌。 黄金一度涨破4500美元，随后获利了结压力下，金价较日高下挫1.7%。白银高位震荡。WTI原油震荡于58.5美元下方。 要闻 中国央行四季度例会：继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 北京楼市新政：放宽非京籍家庭购房条件、支持多子女家庭住房需求。 贝森特暗示美联储未来方向：通胀"区间制"，取消"点阵图"，支持财政部，回归"幕后"。 圣诞前夕美国就业市场回温，上周首申21.4万人，较前值小幅回落。 马斯克预测美国经济18个月内实现两位数增长，AI成关键驱动力。 白银LOF ...

Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [3] - A joint opinion from the PBOC and eight departments outlines 21 key measures to support the high-quality development of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, including exploring cross-border digital RMB payment pilot programs with Singapore [2][3] Industry News - Beijing's housing policy adjustments include reducing the social security or individual income tax payment period for non-Beijing households purchasing homes within the Fifth Ring Road from 3 years to 2 years, and from 2 years to 1 year for homes outside the Fifth Ring Road. Additionally, commercial loan rates will no longer differentiate between first and second homes [4] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a plan for the special governance of industrial product quality and safety in online sales from 2025 to 2027, encouraging the use of big data and AI for daily inspections [4] Company News - Fenglong Co., Ltd. announced that its controlling shareholder will change to UBTECH, and the stock will resume trading [6] - According to sources close to CATL, the lithium mining project in Yichun is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [6] - Anfu Technology announced a strategic investment in Suzhou Yilong Micro, which has established a leading position in the global technology of optical chips for data centers [6]

12月24日，悬挂号牌"渝AD0001Z"的L3级自动驾驶车辆行驶在重庆内环快速路上。12月20日，中国首 块L3级自动驾驶专用正式号牌"渝AD0001Z"在重庆诞生，由重庆市公安局交通管理总队正式授予长安 汽车。根据规划，该车辆获准在重庆市内环快速路、新内环快速路（高滩岩立交—赖家桥立交）及渝都 大道（人和立交—机场立交）开展上路通行试点。中新社记者 何蓬磊/摄 ...

Core Insights - The issuance of the first L3-level autonomous driving license plate "渝AD0001Z" to Changan Automobile marks a significant milestone in China's progress in the autonomous driving sector, reflecting the company's commitment to safety and innovation [2][3] - The approval of L3-level conditional autonomous driving products by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology indicates a critical advancement in the management practices of strategic technologies in China, serving as a catalyst for the industry's intelligent transformation [2][3] Industry Developments - Changan Automobile has undergone seven iterations of technology since establishing its intelligent research and development team in 2009, showcasing its deep-rooted automotive manufacturing experience and successful transition to smart technology [3] - The penetration rate of L2-level advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) in new passenger cars in China exceeded 60% in the first three quarters of this year, with expectations to rise to 90% by 2030, indicating a shift from technology validation to large-scale commercial application [3] Collaborative Innovation - The achievement of L3-level autonomous driving is attributed to collaborative innovation across the industry chain, with leading domestic brands and new car manufacturers investing heavily in intelligent driving as a core strategy [4] - Domestic chip companies have made significant breakthroughs in high-performance AI computing chips, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers and providing a "digital foundation" for China's smart vehicles [4] Data Advantage - The rapid proliferation of L2-level assistance driving has established a strong foundation for the advancement of higher-level intelligent driving, creating a unique data advantage through millions of smart connected vehicles operating in complex road environments [5] - This data-driven approach enhances the iterative capabilities of autonomous driving algorithms, making it difficult for other countries to replicate [5] Regulatory Framework - The approval of L3-level products does not equate to mass production, as it serves as a "permit" for specific models to conduct road tests under strict conditions, emphasizing safety and regulatory compliance [6][10] - The initial speed limit of 50 km/h for L3-level autonomous driving reflects a cautious approach to ensure safety during testing in complex urban traffic environments [7] Future Outlook - Achieving safe and rapid deployment of L3-level autonomous driving requires a collaborative effort from government, enterprises, research institutions, and society [9] - A clear and stable regulatory framework is essential to define the legal identity of L3 vehicles and clarify responsibilities in the event of accidents [10] - Continuous investment in technology and infrastructure, along with public trust and understanding of autonomous driving, will be crucial for the industry's long-term success [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that platform enterprises are becoming significant forces in technological innovation, surpassing traditional company forms and driving global technological progress and digital transformation [2][3] - The report highlights that leading platform enterprises, such as the "Seven Sisters" in the U.S., invest approximately $200 billion annually in research and development, showcasing their substantial innovation input [3] - It notes that Chinese platform economy is undergoing a profound transformation from "scale-driven" to "innovation-driven," necessitating a focus on platform enterprises with technological innovation capabilities [3] Group 2 - The case study of ByteDance illustrates its evolution from an information platform to a comprehensive platform integrating "information + transactions + enterprise services + AI," leveraging core technologies like recommendation algorithms and large models [5] - ByteDance's technological products and services have reached 150 countries and regions, influencing various aspects of user interaction and contributing to high-quality economic development and social welfare [5] - Experts at the conference articulated that the core mission of platform enterprises should focus on "strengthening technology" and "practical innovation," ensuring that innovation benefits public health and economic development [6]

Core Insights - Samsung's subsidiary Harman International announced the acquisition of ZF's Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) division for $1.76 billion, marking a significant move in the automotive electronics sector [1][3][5] Group 1: Samsung's Strategic Move - The acquisition is expected to be completed by the second half of 2026, with approximately 3,750 employees transferring to Harman [3] - This acquisition follows Samsung's previous purchase of Harman in 2017, indicating a continued commitment to the automotive electronics market [3][5] - Samsung aims to integrate Harman's digital cockpit with ADAS under a central control architecture to enhance its capabilities in meeting automotive market demands [8][9] Group 2: ZF's Strategic Shift - ZF will retain its commercial vehicle autonomous driving business and core technologies while selling its ADAS division to reduce financial liabilities [5][14] - ZF's net debt has surged from €279 million in 2014 to €10.5 billion in 2024, prompting significant cost-cutting measures, including a large-scale layoff plan [13][14] - The new CEO of ZF emphasized that the sale of the ADAS business will significantly lower financial debt and allow the company to focus on core technologies like chassis and powertrains [14][16] Group 3: Industry Trends - The automotive industry is experiencing intensified competition, shifting from product-based competition to a focus on software-defined vehicle systems [16][18] - Mergers, restructuring, and consolidation are becoming increasingly common as industry players seek to redefine their positions in the evolving market landscape [18]