利率可能进入扩张性区间。 欧洲央行管委Holzmann：没有理由进一步降息。 ...

智通财经7月9日电，欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼表示，目前没有进一步降息的理由。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes are anticipated to signal a potential interest rate cut in September, with Citigroup predicting a more dovish stance from the Fed [1][3] - The core PCE price index in the U.S. has remained below the 2% target for three consecutive months, providing support for dovish sentiments within the Fed [1][3] - Trump's proposed tariffs on copper (50%) and pharmaceuticals (up to 200%) are expected to disrupt supply chains and could impact inflation, complicating the Fed's decision on rate cuts [1][3] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains that the Fed will begin cutting rates in September, with a total reduction of 125 basis points expected by March next year [3][4] - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant drop in LME copper inventories by 80%, raising concerns about market distortions and supply chain adjustments [3][4] - Despite the tariff threats, Wall Street has raised its S&P 500 year-end target, with Goldman Sachs increasing its forecast from 6100 to 6600 points, indicating a 5.9% upside potential [3][4] Group 3 - The earnings resilience of S&P 500 companies is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected 4.5% year-over-year increase in Q2 earnings, largely driven by major tech companies [4][6] - The tech sector is experiencing a valuation surge, with Nvidia's market cap approaching $4 trillion, driven by strong revenue growth from its CUDA ecosystem [6] - The market is showing signs of vulnerability, with a narrow breadth of gains concentrated in a few tech stocks, raising the risk of a significant correction [6][8] Group 4 - Investment strategies are suggested to balance risks, such as diversifying into equal-weighted S&P 500 ETFs to mitigate concentration in tech stocks [8] - The potential impact of copper tariffs is seen as beneficial for companies like Freeport-McMoRan, while gold and Bitcoin are recommended as hedges against inflation volatility [8] - The upcoming dates for tariff implementation and Fed meetings are critical for adjusting investment positions in the current market environment [8]

花旗分析师表示，他们预计会议纪要将暗示"利率轨迹将取决于6月、7月和8月公布的数据"，这与美联 储主席鲍威尔在国会听证会上的说法一致。鲍威尔为美联储在9月会议上可能降息奠定了基础，前提是 关税导致的物价上涨没有显示出导致持续通胀的迹象，而且经济继续创造足够的就业机会，以防止失业 率上升过快。花旗分析师表示："'观望'期可能会在夏末结束。" ...

隔夜，现货黄金下跌逾1%，盘中一度跌破3300美元关口，刷新逾一周低点至3287.06美元，收盘报3301.53美元。今日欧市盘中，黄金窄幅震荡，目前在 3303美元附近徘徊。 新高浪潮或正在酝酿！ 隔夜，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一。截至收盘，道琼斯指数下跌0.37%，报收于44240.76点；标普500指数下跌0.07%，报收于6225.52点；纳斯达克综合指 数上涨0.03%，报20418.46点。 消息面上，特朗普发出威胁，涉及关税。 当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文表示，根据7日发给各国的信函，以及接下来一段时间内将要发送的信函，关税将于 2025年8月1日开始实施，"该日期没有变化，以后也不会改变"。 特朗普4月2日宣布开征所谓"对等关税"，引发美国金融市场暴跌。在多方压力下，特朗普又在4月9日宣布暂缓对部分贸易对象征收高额"对等关税"90天， 但维持10%的"基准关税"。 7月7日，特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。 在特朗普发出上述关税威胁后，当地时间8日盘中，纽约期铜一度飙升超17%，最高触及5.8955美元/磅。 ...

在周二超过1%的下跌后，金价在周三的亚洲交易中继续承受损失，未能从中国6月份的混合通胀数据中找到太多灵感。 周三数据显示，中国6月份的年消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨1%，而5月份下降0.1%。与此同时，国家的 生产者物价指数（PPI）在6月份同比下降3.6%，而 预期为-3.2%，前值为-3.3%。 投资者继续消化美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税谈判，关于可能的美国贸易协议的乐观情绪为 美元（USD）提供了一些支撑，限制了黄金价格的反弹尝试。 特朗普将"对等关税"的最后期限延长至8月1日，给予一些美国贸易伙伴更多的时间进行贸易谈判并达成协议。这一叙述继续推动美元上涨，损害了以美元计 价的金价。 今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年7月9日的黄金深入分析。 · 金价在周三早盘舔舐伤口，突破区间向下。 · 贸易协议的乐观情绪和美联储预期的鹰派转变继续对无收益的金价施加压力。 · 金价在周二收于50日均线下方，日线RSI呈看跌状态。 金价在周三早盘徘徊于3300美元，舔舐伤口。交易者在等待新的贸易更新和美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）6月政策会议的会议纪要，以获取新的指引，因 而不愿意对这块贵金属进行新的 ...

马来西亚央行7月9日将隔夜政策利率下调25个基点至2.75%，为2020年7月以来首次降息。 ...

Group 1 - The uncertainty created by tariffs is affecting the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rate cuts [1][2] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell is willing to wait for clear evidence of the impact of the trade war on prices before making any rate cuts [1] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is perceived to be high at 63%, but some analysts believe the Fed may hold steady [1][2] Group 2 - UBS predicts that tariff levels could reach around 15% by the end of the year, contributing to moderate stagflation risks [2] - The Fed has raised its forecasts for unemployment and inflation for the end of the year, indicating concerns about economic conditions [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut this month are below 5%, but optimism for a policy easing by December is at 96% [2]

Group 1 - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is intensifying, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as the main contenders [1][2] - Hassett's momentum is rising, having met with President Trump multiple times, while Warsh faces skepticism due to his earlier popularity and "hawkish" stance [2][4] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is also rumored to be interested in the Fed Chair position, with suggestions of him potentially holding both roles [2][9] Group 2 - Hassett, a seasoned economist with a strong academic background, has shifted his stance to align more closely with Trump's views, becoming a vocal critic of current Fed Chair Powell [3][4][5] - Warsh, with a high-profile financial background, is attempting to reshape his "hawkish" image and has proposed aggressive rate cuts in collaboration with Mnuchin [6][7] - Mnuchin's dual role as an advisor and potential candidate adds complexity to the selection process, with his comments possibly exacerbating divisions within the Fed [8][9] Group 3 - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has fueled the search for a new Fed Chair, emphasizing the need for rapid interest rate cuts to support economic growth [10][11] - The expectation for the next Chair to prioritize rate cuts is clearer than during Trump's first term, raising concerns about the potential impact on Fed independence and inflation expectations [11]

特朗普，将"关税大棒"对准特定行业！ 当地时间7月8日，美国总统特朗普表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税。他还透露，美国政府正 打算对药品、半导体以及其他多个特定行业征收新的关税。其中，对药品征收的新关税可能高达200%，但不 会在短期内生效。 在特朗普发出上述关税威胁后，当地时间8日盘中，纽约期铜一度飙升超17%，最高触及5.8955美元/磅。截至 当天收盘时，纽约期铜涨幅仍接近10%。9日亚市早盘，纽约期铜下跌近3%。 在8日当天的白宫内阁会议上，特朗普再次表示，美联储主席鲍威尔应立即辞职。特朗普还威胁对俄罗斯追加 制裁。他还表示，韩国应该自行支付军事防卫费用。 来看详细报道！ 特朗普威胁对铜和药品征收高额关税 美国总统特朗普当地时间7月8日表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，但他没有透露新关税生效 具体时间。不过，据美媒报道，在内阁会议结束后，美国商务部长卢特尼克说，商务部已完成对铜进口状况的 调查，他预计新关税"可能在7月底或8月1日实施"。 特朗普当天在白宫召开内阁会议时说："我认为我们将把铜的关税提高到50%。"他还说，美国政府正打算对药 品、半导体以及其他多个特定行业征收 ...