格隆汇11月14日｜最近一轮对美国股市的小幅抛售，震动了三年牛市的大部分支柱。然而，企业盈利的 基础这一支撑迄今仍未受影响。这些担忧共同导致标普500指数周四下跌近1.7%，这是八个交易日内第 三次跌幅达到或超过1%。其他风险资产也遭受了损失，比特币跌回10万美元以下，小型股暴跌2.8%。 对于看涨者来说，不稳定的市场将更多关注点放在了利润上，随着另一个财报季进入最后阶段，有一点 是清楚的：尽管存在诸多不确定性，高管们仍对未来的盈利表示乐观。Horizon Investment首席投资官 Scott Ladner表示："这是一个非常强劲的财报季，一切都与利润扩张有关。市场会有抛售，但利润率处 于历史高点附近，所以这可能是另一个逢低买入的机会。" ...

近日，软银清仓英伟达套现超58亿美元等事件引发AI泡沫恐慌。美东时间周四，美股三大股指全线下 挫。科技股遭遇猛烈抛售，大型科技股大多下跌。截至收盘，特斯拉跌6.64%，英特尔跌5.23%，博 通、甲骨文跌超4%，英伟达跌3.58%，谷歌-A跌2.84%，亚马逊跌2.71%，微软跌1.54%，苹果跌 0.19%，仅Meta微涨0.14%。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 刘怡鹤）11月14日上午，存储芯片、光通信模块等AI算力相关板块领跌A 股。截至10时33分，佰维存储、聚辰股份跌近10%，康强电子、同有科技跌超8%，普冉股份跌近8%， 华懋科技跌超6%，可川科技跌超5%，源杰科技跌超4%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 ...

⑥ 【特斯拉跌近3%，跌破400美元】特斯拉盘前跌近3%，跌破400美元，目前是2025年"美股科技七巨 头"中唯一股价处于负收益的股票。 ⑦ 【12月降息概率跌破50%，美联储官员齐"泼冷水"】当地时间11月13日，据媒体报道，短期利率期货 显示，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）12月10日降息的可能性已降至47%，而本周早些时候这一 概率为 67%。仅周四一天，就有至少四位美联储官员就政策前景发表了讲话，包括旧金山联储主席玛 丽·戴利、克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克、明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利、圣路易斯联储主席穆 萨勒姆，他们均对12月进一步降息表现出犹豫的态度。 ① 【三大期指普跌】截至发稿，道指期货跌0.14%、标普500指数期货跌0.26%、纳指期货跌0.52%。 ⑧ 【德银下调Circle目标价至90美元】德意志银行将"稳定币第一股"Circle的目标价从147美元下调至90 美元，维持"持有"评级。 ② 【中概股盘前普跌】中概股盘前普跌。截至发稿，阿里巴巴跌0.71%，拼多多跌1.69%，京东跌 2.05%，小鹏汽车跌3.94%。 ③ 【CoreWeave跌超2%，被点名为"AI泡沫的 ...

崩盘，崩盘，崩盘，美股终于崩盘了！ 这一次崩盘的原因，猫哥很早前就已经提醒大家了，市场正在和猫哥设想的趋势一样，庞氏骗局集团彻 底泡沫破灭，英伟达也是连续大跌。 究其原因，几家巨额亏损的公司，动辄喊出上千亿美元的合作，这些公司都有着巨额的贷款债务，它们 一年的利息支出加起来就超100亿美元，想要赚到这么多钱，那恐怕是10年后的事了，这不是骗局又能 是什么？ 港股今天也是跟随着美股一起崩盘，猫哥今天也亏钱了，但亏损还是可控，因为猫哥 早都 知道，英伟 达会引发美股大崩盘，港股这边肯定也不会平静。 【走势复盘】 港股今天低开低走的原因有以下几方面： 1、隔夜美股全面雪崩，市场开始担心庞氏骗局会毁灭一切，现在市场已经开始有这种担忧了，毕竟上 万亿的资本投入，才换来不到100亿美元的回报，这个泡沫终究是要被点爆的。 2、美联储释放出了鹰派预期，现在美国各种数据造假，经济已经全面衰退，华尔街还在那通过AI造 梦，但惨淡的就业数据不会造假，市场已经开始为衰退计价，这自然也对港股是短期负面消息。 3、腾讯、京东和中芯国际相继公布业绩，并没有想象中那么好，对市场还是有负面情绪的，正如猫哥 前几天说的，当前的市场需要谨慎。 4 ...

Group 1 - Meta plans to invest $600 billion in the U.S. by 2028 for AI data centers and talent recruitment [1] - Meta recently completed a $30 billion financing through a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for data center construction [1] - Alphabet is set to issue an additional €3 billion in bonds this year after a previous €6.75 billion issuance [1] Group 2 - Oracle's Credit Default Swaps (CDS) surged in September, indicating market concerns over its high debt levels related to AI infrastructure investments [2][5] - The total financing for tech companies in the U.S. reached $157 billion by the end of September, a 70% increase year-over-year [2] - Oracle signed a $300 billion computing power procurement contract with OpenAI, boosting its stock price significantly [2][9] Group 3 - Oracle's debt-to-equity ratio is significantly higher than other AI giants, with a debt ratio of approximately 85% [6][9] - Despite Oracle's high leverage, many leading AI companies are still showing strong profit growth, with Alphabet's Q3 revenue at $102.35 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase [9][10] - The current capital investments in AI, while substantial, remain within a reasonable range compared to historical bubbles [10] Group 4 - The U.S. tech companies are expected to invest nearly $700 billion in data center construction by 2027, contrasting with Chinese companies' projected investment of under $80 billion [12] - Meta's SPV financing structure allows it to isolate $30 billion in debt from its balance sheet, improving its financial appearance [16] - The use of SPVs by tech companies is a strategy to manage debt pressure and attract diverse investors [16][17] Group 5 - Indicators for identifying an "AI bubble" include the proportion of new funding from loans and the sustainability of stock price growth [18][19] - Current debt levels in AI companies are lower than during the internet bubble, suggesting a safer debt structure [19] - The market's ability to adjust quickly due to modern trading systems may lead to shorter correction periods compared to past bubbles [20]

Core Viewpoint - Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, has sparked market discussions again after being reported to have made a significant bet against AI stocks. However, he clarified that the reported amount of $912 million was a media error, and his actual investment was only $9.2 million [2][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Actions - Burry purchased 50,000 put options on Palantir, each costing $1.84, totaling an investment of approximately $9.2 million, not $912 million as reported [5][10]. - The notional value of his options, which corresponds to 5 million shares of Palantir at a stock price of $182, was reported as $912 million, but this figure represents potential exposure rather than actual investment [9][10]. Group 2: Market Concerns - Burry has expressed concerns about an AI bubble, comparing the current market situation to the internet bubble of 2000, citing overinflated valuations in companies like Nvidia, Palantir, Meta, and Oracle [11][12]. - He criticized these companies for excessive capital expenditures and for artificially inflating profits by extending asset depreciation periods [11]. Group 3: Fund Management Changes - Burry has quietly terminated the SEC registration of his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, indicating a potential shift in his investment strategy [13][16]. - In a letter to investors, he announced plans to liquidate the fund and return capital to investors, expressing disappointment with market valuations [14][16]. - Speculation arises that Burry may move towards a new independent platform for sharing investment insights, potentially bypassing traditional regulatory frameworks [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The storage sector has experienced a significant downturn due to the poor performance of KIOXIA, raising concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven storage market and increasing fears of an "AI bubble" [1][4][5] Group 1: KIOXIA's Performance - KIOXIA's stock plummeted over 23% following the release of its disappointing Q2 FY2025 earnings, which showed a more than 60% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit to 40.7 billion yen, falling short of analyst expectations of 47.4 billion yen [1][4] - The company's revenue for the same quarter decreased by 7% year-on-year to 448.3 billion yen, although it saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.8% [4] - KIOXIA's guidance for Q3 FY2025 indicates expected revenue of 500-550 billion yen, which is below market expectations of 530 billion yen, and Non-GAAP operating profit guidance of 100-140 billion yen, also below the anticipated 141 billion yen [4][6] Group 2: Market Impact - The fallout from KIOXIA's earnings report led to a widespread sell-off in the global storage chip sector, with significant declines in stock prices for major companies such as SanDisk (down 13.96%), Seagate (down 7.31%), and Western Digital (down 5.39%) in the U.S. market [7][8] - In South Korea, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics saw their stock prices drop by 8.5% and 5.45%, respectively, while the A-share storage chip sector in China also experienced declines, with several stocks falling over 10% [8] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that KIOXIA's disappointing results reflect uncertainty at the end of the storage industry's cyclical low, but they remain optimistic about the upward trend in NAND prices [8] - Major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and KIOXIA are reducing NAND flash supply, with Samsung considering price increases of 20% to 30% for next year [8] - Market research indicates that the shortage of AI-driven storage products may persist until at least 2027, with demand for DRAM products expected to stabilize only after that [9]

Core View - CoreWeave (CRWV.US) continues to decline, dropping over 2% pre-market to $76.7, following a significant drop of over 8% the previous day [1] - A forthcoming investigative report from The Verge describes CoreWeave as "the heart of the AI bubble," raising concerns about its business model and heavy reliance on NVIDIA [1] - The report emphasizes that CoreWeave is unlikely to operate without substantial funding and hardware support from NVIDIA, questioning the sustainability of its model amid fluctuations in AI demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has significantly reduced its positions in major AI-related tech stocks, reflecting concerns over an "AI bubble" and the sustainability of the AI investment trend, while simultaneously increasing positions in certain ASIC leaders like Broadcom [1][2]. Holdings Summary - Citigroup's total holdings value reached approximately $224 billion in Q3, up 10% from the previous quarter, with 826 new stocks added and 3,028 stocks reduced [1]. - The top ten holdings accounted for 19.48% of Citigroup's total U.S. stock market value, indicating a high concentration in these positions [1]. Major Stock Adjustments - Significant reductions were made in holdings of Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, with Nvidia being the largest holding but reduced by 28.22% to approximately 33.39 million shares valued at $6.2 billion [2][3]. - Citigroup increased its position in the Russell 2000 ETF put options, reflecting a bearish outlook on small-cap stocks [3]. Specific Stock Positions - The second-largest holding was in Russell 2000 ETF put options, with approximately 23.99 million shares valued at $5.8 billion, an increase of 12.26% [3]. - Microsoft was the third-largest holding, with about 9.56 million shares valued at $5 billion, down 19.55% from the previous quarter [3]. - Tesla put options ranked fourth, with about 10.43 million shares valued at $4.6 billion, showing a slight increase of 6.84% [3]. Additional Insights - Citigroup's strategy included a significant reduction in positions in Apple and Amazon by 33% and 30% respectively, while increasing its stake in Broadcom, which is seen as a competitor to Nvidia in the AI GPU market [4]. - The firm also increased its holdings in Nasdaq 100 ETF put options by 81%, indicating preparation for potential declines in AI-related stocks [4][5]. - The top five sell-offs included Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple, further emphasizing Citigroup's cautious stance on the AI investment trend [5].

继前阵子高调做空美股AI科技股后，那个在《大空头》里被搬上大银幕的传奇人物——Michael Burry， 突然宣布：关闭自己的基金。 没预兆，也没过多解释。 （原标题：做空Palantir、英伟达的大空头，突发大动作） 大空头又有新动作了？ 他回应道："我买了5万份看跌期权，每份价格1.84美元。每份合约对应100股股票。总共只花了920万美 元，不是9.12亿美元。" 在他眼里，这场AI盛宴已经泡得太满。他公开表示，美国科技股现在的状态，"市场正被AI泡沫裹挟， 像极了2000年的互联网泡沫。" 消息出来后，市场又炸了。 一个曾经提前预见次贷危机的人，为什么突然收摊？是认输，还是他又闻到了别人还没察觉的味道？ 从这位大空头过往的操作看——每一次沉默，都酝酿了一场风暴。 在2008年那场金融危机中，当所有人都在买房、炒房时，Burry却孤身一人做空美国楼市。那时投资人 天天吵着赎回，骂他疯了。 最后，美国楼市真崩了，他赚了几亿美元，一战封神。电影《大空头》就是拍的那段经历。 从那以后，Burry就成了华尔街的"逆行者"，一个总是和世界唱反调的人。 这一次，他盯上的，是这场延续了几年的AI浪潮。 今年以来，B ...