交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-10 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升， 美豆带动和技术性买盘支撑，但6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹空间， 短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2840（华东），基差-179，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存38.25万吨，上周29.8万吨，环比增加28.36%，去年同期85.61万吨， 同比减少65.19%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Bean Meal - The US soybeans are oscillating and rising. The phone call between China and the US this week and the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are positive for agricultural products. In the short term, US soybeans will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation and the planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In China, bean meal is also oscillating and rising, supported by rapeseed meal and technical buying, but the increase in imported soybeans arriving at ports in June and the weak spot price are suppressing the market. The short - term trend will return to the range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for bean meal M2509 is between 2940 and 3000 [8]. 2.2. Soybeans - US soybeans are oscillating and rising, waiting for the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation and the planting weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In China, soybeans are oscillating and rising. The increase in imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the market, but the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the price bottom. The expected trading range for soybeans A2507 is between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Recent Important News - The short - term agreement reached in the China - US tariff negotiation is positive for US soybeans, but due to the favorable recent planting weather in the US, the US soybean market has risen and then fallen. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybeans arriving at ports, and the follow - up of the China - US tariff negotiation. - The volume of imported soybeans arriving at ports in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level, but the bean meal inventory remains low. In the short term, soybeans and related products have returned to an oscillating pattern affected by the outcome of the China - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for bean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the reduced pressure of the China - US tariff war, bean meal has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory remains low, and the strong spot price supports the short - term price expectation. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Bean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.2. Long and Short Concerns 3.2.1. Bean Meal - **Long factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas. - **Short factors**: The total volume of imported soybeans arriving at ports in China will rebound to a high in June, the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans persists [13]. 3.2.2. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price expectation. - **Short factors**: The expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans persists, China has increased the purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [14]. 3.3. Fundamental Data - **Bean meal**: The spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 179, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 298,000 tons, a 44.03% increase from last week's 206,900 tons and a 65.19% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 22, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 582,880 tons, a 3.97% increase from last week's 560,630 tons and a 20.45% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 3.4. Position Data - **Bean meal**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with a slight decline in late - May due to some steel mill maintenance. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 2.33 million tons to 2.2 million tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased from 3.19 million tons to 3.29 million tons. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions [3][14]. - Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand weakened, and plate demand was weak. Real estate investment was sluggish, and infrastructure was stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry was in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances weakened. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, with steel exports increasing by 8.2% year - on - year from January to April, but the new export order index in May shrank to 42% [3]. - In the next month, steel prices will face continuous pressure. Terminal real estate investment will continue to decline, and due to poor data on new housing starts and construction areas, combined with seasonal patterns, the apparent demand for construction materials will decline. The domestic manufacturing industry will continue to contract, the demand for automobiles and home appliances will slow down, and overseas tariff impacts will lead to weak demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, steel demand will face both internal and external pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the steel market was under pressure and declined. After the May Day holiday, steel prices rose and then fell, with weak supply and demand. The blast furnace operating rate remained high, and electric furnaces reduced production due to losses. The demand side was suppressed by the decline in real estate investment. On May 12, the Sino - US tariff negotiation reached an agreement, boosting market sentiment, but the steel price rebound was short - lived. In the second half of the month, steel prices broke through downward after narrow - range fluctuations. Weak reality (declining off - season demand) and weak expectations (weak real estate + export pressure), combined with high supply and cost loosening, drove steel prices down. In June, supply - demand contradictions may further accumulate [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel mills' production is stable, and supply pressure remains high - From January to April, China's pig iron, crude steel, and steel production were 288.85 million tons, 345.35 million tons, and 480.21 million tons respectively, with cumulative year - on - year increases of 0.8%, 0.4%, and 6%. In April, crude steel production decreased by 7.3% month - on - month due to blast furnace maintenance and weak demand. In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with blast furnace hot metal production remaining at around 2.44 million tons per day. The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was about 2.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.08%; the weekly output of five major steel products was 8.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The production structure was differentiated, with long - process better than short - process. Electric furnace losses increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.2% to 33.8% [14]. 2.2 Steel inventory reduction slowed down, and factory inventory increased - In May, steel inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The absolute inventory was at a historical low, and the differentiation between varieties intensified. As of June 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 million tons), the social inventory was 9.31 million tons (a decrease of 0.92 million tons), and the factory inventory was 4.33 million tons (an increase of 0.09 million tons). After the May delivery, the number of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil will gradually enter the accumulation cycle [19]. 2.3 Demand enters the off - season, and pressure increases - Construction steel demand is weak and entering the off - season. Real estate investment is sluggish, and infrastructure is stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry is in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances are weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, and subsequent exports are under pressure [22]. 2.4 External risks still exist - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. Real estate investment continued to decline, and housing steel - using indicators continued to decline significantly. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating. In May, manufacturing steel - using showed internal differentiation and weakening external demand. Steel exports faced short - term pressure relief but were still blocked in the medium term. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative steel imports were 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and cumulative exports were 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [28][31][46]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In May, steel production was stable at a high level. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions. - Demand side: Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand will weaken, and plate demand will be weak. Overall, steel demand will continue to face double pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [48][51].

Group 1 - The report indicates a recovery in market sentiment, with a renewed focus on technology sectors, particularly in the context of the A-share market showing resilience despite geopolitical tensions [7][17][19] - The A-share market is expected to maintain upward momentum until late June, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and potential easing of US-China trade tensions [17][18] - The report highlights that the overall market is in a continuation phase of an upward trend since the 924 market rally, with the Wind All A Index currently at 5156 points, indicating room for further growth [17][24] Group 2 - Investment recommendations include a focus on technology growth sectors, particularly AI, which has seen reduced crowding and is expected to benefit from potential policy relaxations regarding technology restrictions [24][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic consumption, particularly in emerging sectors such as health, tourism, and pet economy, as a counterbalance to uncertainties in overseas demand [24][25] - High dividend sectors are highlighted as having sustained value, with particular attention to banking, coal, public utilities, and transportation as potential investment areas [25][26] Group 3 - The report notes that the small-cap stocks represented by the CSI 2000 index have a high price-to-earnings ratio of 137.40 times, indicating accumulated risks in this segment [18][19] - The report anticipates that the upcoming Lujiazui Forum in June 2025 will be a key event for financial policy announcements, which could influence market dynamics [22][24] - The report also discusses the impact of US economic data, particularly the better-than-expected non-farm payrolls, which may delay Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and affect market sentiment [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views - **豆粕**: The domestic soybean meal may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The US soybean production area weather supports the bottom of the US soybean price, but the bumper harvest in South America and good recent planting weather limit the rebound height. In addition, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans in China affects the domestic soybean meal market. The M2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2940 and 3000 [8]. - **大豆**: The domestic soybean price is affected by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand, but the bumper harvest in South America and the expected increase in domestic production limit the rebound height. The A2507 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4080 and 4180 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **豆粕**: The spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 179, indicating a discount to the futures. The oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 29.8 tons, up 44.03% from last week and down 65.19% from the same period last year. The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upwards. The long positions of the main contract are increasing, but the funds are flowing out [8]. - **大豆**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 22, indicating a premium to the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 582.88 tons, up 3.97% from last week and up 20.45% from the same period last year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downwards. The short positions of the main contract are decreasing, and the funds are flowing out [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but the good recent planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pullback in the US market. The domestic arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in May, and the soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, and the market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. 3.3 Multi - Short Concerns - **豆粕**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean production area. Bearish factors include the expected increase in the arrival of imported soybeans in June and the bumper harvest in South America [13]. - **大豆**: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand. Bearish factors include the bumper harvest in South America and the expected increase in domestic production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot and futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal are provided from May 27 to June 5, along with the basis data [15][17]. - **Inventory**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. from 2015 to 2024. The inventory of oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal is also presented, with the oil - mill soybean inventory increasing and the soybean meal inventory remaining low [31][32][44]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in 2024 - 2025 are detailed, along with the data on US soybean exports, oil - mill soybean crushing volume, and the situation of the pig industry [33][34][38]. 3.5 Position Data There is no specific information about position data other than the change in the main contract's long and short positions mentioned in the views and strategies section.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980. The market is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [8]. - The soybean market is also expected to be range - bound. The A2507 contract is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160, influenced by factors like South American soybean harvest weather, Sino - US trade tariff games, and domestic supply and demand situations [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial for US soybeans, but good weather in US soybean - growing areas has caused the US soybean futures to rise and then fall, with expectations of oscillation above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to an oscillating pattern due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. - Reduced profits in the domestic pig - breeding industry have led to low expectations for pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. However, tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectations of soybean meal, and the market has entered an oscillating and weakening pattern in the short term [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and strong spot prices support short - term price expectations. Uncertainties such as potential weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and Sino - US tariff war variables have kept the soybean meal market oscillating in the short term [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors of Concern Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans persists [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 159, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 29.8 tons, a 44.03% increase from last week and a 65.19% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 37, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 582.88 tons, a 3.97% increase from last week and a 20.45% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed out [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **For Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The price of soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2920 and 2980. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The domestic soybean market is also affected by multiple factors and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160 for soybean A2507. The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back of the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiation [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean market returned to an oscillating pattern due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The reduction of domestic pig - breeding profit has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal and the strong spot price support the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variable impact of the Sino - US tariff war make the soybean meal market oscillate in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and further guidance on the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Bearish factors include the increase in the total arrival volume of imported soybeans in June and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. - **Soybeans**: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors include the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From May 22 to June 3, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to narrow [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From May 23 to June 3, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed different trends. The futures price of soybean meal was relatively strong and oscillating, while the spot price was relatively weak after May Day, and the discount widened slightly [17][22]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From May 21 to June 3, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 decreased to zero, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal also decreased [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis [42]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills continued to rise, while the inventory of soybean meal remained low [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to rise, indicating an increase in long - term stocking demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills rebounded to a high level, but the output of soybean meal in April decreased year - on - year [24][48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread narrowed slightly [50]. - The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The prices of pigs and piglets fluctuated slightly [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [56]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit increased slightly [58].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-03 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，特朗普关于中美关税言论和美豆种植天气良好影响，美豆短期千 点关口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕 探底回升，美豆带动和国内油厂豆粕库存处于低位，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税 谈判后续交互影响，短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-138，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存20.69万吨，上周12.17万吨，环比增加70.01%，去年同期76.06万吨， 同比减少72.8%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal market is expected to trade in a range between 2920 and 2980 for M2509. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The short - term outlook is neutral, with both bullish and bearish factors at play [8]. - The soybean market for A2507 is expected to trade in a range between 4040 and 4140. The market is affected by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, the harvest in South America, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations reached a short - term agreement, which is positive for US soybeans. However, favorable weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a short - term pullback in the US market. The market is expected to trade above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, domestic soybean inventories rebounded from a low level, while soybean meal inventories remained low. The soybean market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - Reduced profits in the domestic pig - farming industry led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal weakened after May Day, but tight supply supported post - holiday price expectations. With reduced pressure from the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal entered a short - term weakening and oscillating pattern [12]. - Low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills and strong spot prices supported short - term price expectations. Uncertainty about the weather in US soybean - growing areas and the outcome of the Sino - US tariff war meant that soybean meal would continue to oscillate in the short term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low soybean meal inventories at domestic oil mills, and uncertainty about the weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in May, and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2850, with a basis of - 111, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean meal inventories are 20.69 million tons, up 70.01% from last week and down 72.8% from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 41, indicating a premium to futures. Oil mill soybean inventories are 560.63 million tons, down 4.46% from last week and up 24.44% from the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The long positions of the main players increased, but funds flowed out [8]. - **Soybeans**: The short positions of the main players increased, and funds flowed out [10].