交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 豆粕早报 2025-06-30 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美元走弱和空头回补，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡等待中美关税 谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升，美豆带动和技术性 震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期回归区间震荡 格局。中性 2.基差：现货2800（华东），基差-146，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓： ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as a vital support for the resilience of the Chinese economy, highlighting government initiatives to enhance their competitive environment and promote their specialized and innovative development [1][9]. Group 1: Government Initiatives and Support - The 20th China International Small and Medium Enterprises Expo was held from June 27 to 30 in Guangzhou, where the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, called for optimizing the competitive environment for SMEs and promoting an open world economy [1]. - Li Lecheng proposed three key initiatives: optimizing the competitive environment, strengthening the specialized and innovative development of SMEs, and deepening practical exchanges and cooperation among SMEs [10][11]. - The government is actively deploying measures to support SMEs in areas such as market expansion, financing, digital transformation, and technological empowerment [1][12]. Group 2: Economic Performance of SMEs - In the first five months of the year, the added value of industrial SMEs increased by 8.0% year-on-year, with 28 out of 31 manufacturing sectors showing growth [3][2]. - The revenue of industrial SMEs reached 32.6 trillion yuan, with profits continuing to grow, particularly in sectors like computer and communication equipment and electrical machinery [4]. - The export index for SMEs was 50.7% in May, indicating a strong export momentum and remaining in the expansion zone for 14 consecutive months [5]. Group 3: Digital Transformation and Innovation - The pace of digital transformation among SMEs is accelerating, with over 3,500 digital service providers selected and more than 10,000 technology products developed to support over 40,000 SMEs in digital upgrades [6]. - The China SME Development Index (SMEDI) rose to 89.5 in May, indicating a recovery in business expectations, with significant improvements in the industrial, construction, transportation, and accommodation sectors [6]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Challenges - The article notes that while there are positive trends in SME development, challenges remain, including external uncertainties and the need for further domestic demand and consumption revitalization [6]. - The government aims to create more market opportunities for SMEs and consolidate the upward trend in their development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of supporting the specialized, refined, unique, and innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to enhance their competitiveness and innovation capabilities [2][6]. Group 1: Policy Support for SMEs - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is implementing favorable policies to help SMEs focus on their core businesses and achieve high-end, digital, green, and international development [2][6]. - A series of measures are being introduced to optimize the competitive environment for SMEs, including eliminating institutional barriers, improving market access rules, and strengthening intellectual property protection [2][6][4]. - The "2025 Together to Benefit Enterprises" initiative has been launched, involving 17 departments to provide 73 service measures aimed at stabilizing expectations and invigorating SMEs [8]. Group 2: Economic Performance of SMEs - In the first five months of this year, the added value of industrial SMEs increased by 8.0% year-on-year, with 28 out of 31 manufacturing sectors showing growth [3]. - The revenue of industrial SMEs reached 32.6 trillion yuan, with profits continuing to grow, particularly in the computer, telecommunications, and electrical machinery sectors [3]. - The SME Development Index (SMEDI) rose to 89.5 in May, indicating a recovery in business expectations, with the macroeconomic sentiment index also increasing to 98.9 [3]. Group 3: Future Development and Challenges - The number of SMEs in China is expected to exceed 60 million by the end of 2024, with revenues from industrial SMEs projected to reach 81 trillion yuan [6]. - Despite positive trends, SMEs still face challenges due to external uncertainties and the need for further domestic demand and consumption revitalization [4][6]. - The MIIT is advocating for enhanced international cooperation among SMEs to support global supply chain efficiency and resilience [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market is experiencing a decline due to favorable weather in the main production areas and technical adjustments. In the short - term, it will fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance from China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean meal market has also declined, affected by the U.S. soybean market and technical adjustments. With an increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices, the upward movement of the futures price is restricted, and it will return to a range - bound pattern. The expected trading range for M2509 is between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The U.S. soybean market is in a downward trend with short - term fluctuations above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean market has declined, influenced by the U.S. market, while the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports price expectations. In the short - term, it will be affected by the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations and the expected increase in imported soybeans. The expected trading range for A2509 is between 4100 and 4200 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Market is neutral, with a bearish basis, a bullish inventory situation, a neutral position on the 20 - day moving average, and a bullish outlook for the main position. It is expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 2960 [8]. - **Soybeans**: Market is neutral, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory situation, a neutral position on the 20 - day moving average, and a bearish outlook for the main position. It is expected to trade in the range of 4100 - 4200 [10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement in China - U.S. tariff negotiations is beneficial for U.S. soybeans, but favorable weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas has led to a short - term decline after a rally. In the future, it awaits further guidance from soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a volatile pattern due to the conclusion of the China - U.S. tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. However, the tight supply supports the post - holiday price of soybean meal. With the weakening pressure of the China - U.S. tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a weakly - volatile pattern in the short - term. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and the relatively strong spot price support short - term price expectations. The possibility of weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - U.S. tariff war still exist. The soybean meal market will remain volatile in the short - term, awaiting the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - U.S. tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans continues after the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest [13]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [14]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 17th to 26th, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed small - scale fluctuations [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 17th to 26th, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed a downward trend [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: From June 13th to 26th, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean 1 and soybean 2) and soybean meal changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Meal Spot Prices**: The soybean meal futures market is in a relatively strong and volatile state, while the spot market has been relatively weak after May Day, and the discount has slightly widened [22]. - **Soybean Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including information on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [30][31]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided specifically for position data other than the general description of main positions in the viewpoints and strategies section. Other Market Conditions - The weekly export inspection of U.S. soybeans has increased compared to the previous week but decreased compared to the same period last year [41]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, while the soybean meal inventory has continued to increase [43]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, indicating a weakening of long - term procurement demand [45]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [46]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has slightly increased, and the profit margin of imported soybean futures has slightly narrowed [48]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [50]. - The prices of live pigs and piglets have slightly declined [52]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs has slightly increased [54]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has declined to a relatively low level [56].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆主产区天气良好和技术性调整，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2820（华东），基差-173，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，美豆主产区天气良好和技术性调整，美豆短期千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和技术性震荡整理，6月进口大豆到港增多和现货价格弱势压制盘面反弹高度，短期 回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2850（华东），基差-187，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存50.89万吨，上周41万吨，环比增加24.12%，去年同期96.77万吨，同 比减少47.41%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean market in the US is affected by the weather in the planting area and Sino-US tariff negotiations, with short - term fluctuations above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are also influenced by factors such as the arrival of imported soybeans, South American soybean production, and domestic demand, and are expected to be in a range - bound pattern in the short term [8][10][12] - The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2960 - 3020, and the soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4300 [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to US soybeans, but the good weather for US soybean planting has led to a short - term pullback in the US market, which is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. The future trend depends on US soybean planting, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [12] - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory has rebounded from a low level after May Day, but the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to a fluctuating pattern in the short term, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12] - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term weak - fluctuating pattern [12] - The low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal and the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean planting area support the short - term price expectation. The soybean meal market will remain fluctuating in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean planting area [13] - Bearish factors: the total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans continues [13] Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expectation of increased domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [14] - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppress the soybean price [14] 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 12 to 23, the trading volume and average price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [15] - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Price Data**: From June 12 to 23, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal fluctuated. The futures of soybean meal were strongly fluctuating, while the spot prices were relatively weak after May Day, and the discount increased slightly [17][22] - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From June 10 to 23, the warehouse receipts of soybeans (including soybean No.1 and soybean No.2) and soybean meal generally showed a downward trend, with some fluctuations [19] - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory of soybeans [30][31] - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Regions**: - In the 2023/24 season, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans is provided, showing that the sowing and harvesting progress is generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [32] - In 2024, the sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of US soybeans are provided, with the sowing progress slightly behind the previous year and the five - year average in some periods, and the growth and harvesting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [33][34][35][36] - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans are provided, with the planting and harvesting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [37][38] - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans are provided, with the planting progress generally in line with or better than the previous year and the five - year average [39] - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from December 2024 to June 2025 show changes in the harvest area, yield, output, and other information of US soybeans, as well as the output information of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [40] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a high - level oscillation due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10][14]. - The soybean market is also in an oscillatory state, with the market concentrating on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [15]. - In the short term, US soybeans may oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance. Domestic soybean meal may return to an interval oscillation pattern [10][17]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Tips The content does not explicitly present weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are short - term bullish for US soybeans. The US soybean planting weather is still variable, and the US soybean market is oscillating strongly in the short term, expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory increased from a low level, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills also increased [13]. - The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, leading to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans continues [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. - Bearish factors: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans continues, China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated and increased [22]. - **USDA's Recent Six - Month Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: There have been some changes in the harvest area, yield, output, and other indicators of US soybeans in the past six months [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024**: The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans in 2024 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in 2024/25**: The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/25 are compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28]. - **Argentine Soybean Planting Progress in 2024/25**: The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/25 is compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [29]. 3.5 Position Data The provided content does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Trading Strategies 3.6.1 Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal oscillates within the range of 2900 - 3100 in the short term. Short - term interval trading is the main strategy [17]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. 3.6.2 Soybeans - Futures: The A2509 contract of soybeans oscillates within the range of 4100 - 4300. Short - term interval trading is recommended [20]. - Option strategy: Wait and see [20]. 3.7 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) 3.7.1 US Soybean Market Analysis - US soybeans are oscillating strongly in the short term due to Sino - US tariff negotiations and biodiesel policies. The overall good planting weather in US soybean - producing areas suppresses the upward space of the market [33]. - The market focuses on the variability of US soybean - producing area weather and changes in Sino - US trade relations. The US soybean market may oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance [33]. 3.7.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival of imported soybeans reached a high in June, and the overall volume increased [36]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased slightly, while the soybean meal inventory continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the demand for forward stocking weakened [37][39]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement in China has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the pick - up volume has remained good [44]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices and piglet prices decreased slightly [46][48]. 3.8 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the discount fluctuated slightly [59]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between the 2509 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal remained oscillating [61]. 3.9 Technical Analysis 3.9.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - Soybean futures oscillated and rebounded, driven by the trend of US soybeans and the rise of domestic soybean spot prices [67]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a high level, and the short - term technical indicator entered the rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limited the further upward space [67]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term technical rebound may continue for a short time [67]. 3.9.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - Soybean meal oscillated strongly this week, mainly driven by US soybeans. The expected concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans suppressed the upward space of the market [69]. - The KDJ indicator oscillated at a high level, entering the technical oscillation and consolidation stage, and the upward space at the high - level indicator may be limited [69]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded, and the short - term technical rebound was accompanied by a narrowing of the red energy [69]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important points are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US trade relations and the follow - up of the tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - The second - important points are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [74]. - The third - important points are macro - factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are fluctuating due to macro - sentiment disturbances. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant currently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1]. - Iron ore prices are fluctuating. The supply of iron ore is generally recovering, and its consumption maintains resilience. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and future attention should be paid to the iron water output and inventory changes during the off - season [3]. - Coking coal and coke prices are in a range - bound fluctuation. The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the medium - and long - term supply - loose pattern has not changed significantly [6]. - The supply - demand structure of thermal coal has improved, and the coal price has rebounded slightly. With the approaching of the thermal coal consumption peak season, the coal price is expected to continue to rise, and the medium - and long - term supply pattern remains balanced [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 2986 yuan/ton and 3103 yuan/ton respectively. Rebar production has increased, while inventory and demand have slightly decreased. Hot - rolled coil production and consumption have increased, and inventory has slightly decreased. The daily national building materials trading volume is 9.01 million tons. The off - season weak demand suppresses rebar prices, while hot - rolled coils show strong resilience, and short - term exports remain high [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to maintain a fluctuating outlook, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore fluctuates. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume has decreased. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 242.18 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.57 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate is 59.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the port inventory is slightly decreasing. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to maintain a fluctuating outlook, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coke and coking coal fluctuate within a range. Coke production is restricted, and inventory has decreased significantly. Coking coal supply has tightened, and the inventory of coking plants and ports has decreased. Downstream coking enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases. The current supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the medium - and long - term supply - loose pattern remains unchanged [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate, and there are no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options strategies [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The expected output at the mine mouth is shrinking, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price of low - calorie coal has increased significantly, and the price of high - calorie imported coal is firm. With the approaching of the thermal coal consumption peak season, the coal price is expected to rebound, and the medium - and long - term supply pattern remains balanced [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a technical consolidation phase due to a holiday and short - term calm in news. It is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas. In China, soybean meal has rebounded, but the increase in imported soybeans in June and weak spot prices limit the upside. It is expected to trade in a range of 3040 - 3100 for M2509. The overall outlook is neutral, with some factors like low inventory being positive and high import volume being negative [8]. - **For Soybeans**: The US soybean market situation is similar to that of soybean meal. In China, soybeans have rebounded from a low. The price is affected by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans, and the expected increase in imported soybeans. It is expected to trade in a range of 4200 - 4300 for A2509. The overall outlook is neutral, with factors such as cost support being positive and high import and domestic production expectations being negative [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - The short - term agreement in China - US tariff negotiations is positive for US soybeans, but good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back in the US market. It is expected to oscillate above the thousand - point mark, waiting for future developments [12]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory has recovered from a low, while the soybean meal inventory remains low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to an oscillatory pattern, showing a strong - reality and weak - expectation situation [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but tight supply supports the post - holiday price. With the weakening pressure of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal has entered a weakly oscillatory pattern [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas support the short - term price. However, it is still waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Bearish**: The total volume of imported soybeans in China is expected to reach a high in June, and the harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over with a continuous high - yield expectation [13]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish**: Cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Bearish**: The continuous high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From June 10 - 19, 2025, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2937 - 2999 yuan/ton, and the trading volume also fluctuated. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal increased from 2520 to 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small [15]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 11 - 19, 2025, the futures prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed an overall upward - fluctuating trend, while the spot prices also changed accordingly [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipts**: From June 6 - 19, 2025, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal generally decreased [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 show the changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [30][31]. - **Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in Different Regions**: The planting and growth progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 are presented, including sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and harvesting rates [32][33][37] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Additional Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year [41]. - The soybean inventory in oil mills continues to rise, while the soybean meal inventory remains low [43]. - The unexecuted contracts in oil mills continue to rise, indicating an increase in long - term procurement demand [45]. - The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remains high, but the soybean meal output in April decreased year - on - year [46]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has increased slightly, and the import profit on the futures market has narrowed slightly [47]. - The inventory of live pigs and sows has increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [49]. - The prices of live pigs and piglets have decreased slightly [51]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [53]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has fallen to a relatively low level [55].