Core Viewpoint - Chile's Finance Minister Marcel introduced preliminary plans for negotiations with the U.S., aiming for an agreement by the end of the current round of talks, which are flexible in duration [1] Group 1: Negotiation Details - The negotiations with the U.S. are expected to last three days, with a focus on mutual understanding and win-win outcomes [1] - Topics raised by the U.S. are within the negotiable framework of the bilateral free trade agreement [1] Group 2: Tariff Exemptions - The Chilean government seeks tariff exemptions for wood and copper, similar to agreements reached by the Trump administration with other countries regarding steel and raw materials [1] - If copper tariffs take effect on August 1, market volatility is anticipated to increase [1]

2025 年 07 月 29 日 铜：美元回升，施压价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,000 | -0.32% | 79010 | 0.01% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,763 | -0.34% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 75,630 | -12,517 | 176,092 | -4,738 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 13,965 | 1,900 | 270,000 | -789 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 17,832 | 1,699 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 127,400 | -1,075 | 13.56% | -1.11% | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc investment rating indicates a downward trend, with a trend strength of -1 [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to fluctuate and weaken [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Data - The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,645 yuan/ton, down 1.05% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,829 dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1] - The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 193,107 lots, an increase of 41,021 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 8,275 lots, a decrease of 2,398 lots [1] - The open interest of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 124,461 lots, a decrease of 4,767 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 188,773 lots, a decrease of 1,902 lots [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -1.8 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.8 dollars/ton [1] - The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -1,546.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.31 yuan/ton [1] - The difference between ZN00 and ZN01 was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc's third - consecutive contract was -1,360.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46.07 yuan/ton [1] - Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory was 13,767 tons, an increase of 478 tons; LME Zinc's inventory was 115,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [1] - The tax - included price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,385 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME Zinc's cancelled warrants were 54,950 tons, an increase of 150 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 19,243 tons, a decrease of 2,712 tons [1] - The price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 23,275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia on the Russia - Ukraine conflict to 10 - 12 days, causing crude oil to rise nearly 3% during the session [2] - Chile expects to obtain tariff exemptions from Trump, which caused New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [2][3]

标普500指数惊险六连涨续创新高；美元涨超1%创两月最大涨幅，欧元跌超1%；黄金四连跌，纽 约期铜一度跌超6%；国内焦煤夜盘跌超10%。 中美经贸会谈在瑞典斯德哥尔摩开始举行。 中国育儿补贴政策来了，3周岁以下婴幼儿每孩每年3600元。 特朗普等不及了，缩短对俄罗斯达成协议最后通牒期限，原油盘中涨近3%。 美财政部三季度借款预期破万亿，上调82%，债务上限提高后加速发债；5年期美债拍卖意外疲 软，海外需求创三年新低。 智利预计能获特朗普关税豁免，纽铜一度跌超6%，铜矿股普跌。 特斯拉给三星下165亿美元芯片大单，马斯克称将亲自参与提升生产效率。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel expressed optimism about the possibility of excluding copper from high tariffs during ongoing negotiations with the U.S., indicating that Chile will not retaliate against U.S. tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Chile's Tariff Negotiations - Marcel highlighted two aspects of the tariff negotiations: a general tariff affecting many countries and a specific 50% tariff on copper, with details still unclear [1] - He believes there is hope to exclude copper from high tariffs, citing previous agreements where the U.S. negotiated separately for raw materials like steel and copper with other countries [1] - Marcel emphasized that over half of Chile's exports to the U.S. consist of copper and timber, making it crucial for these commodities to be included in the negotiations [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Marcel's statements, COMEX copper futures experienced a sharp decline, with intraday losses exceeding 6% before partially recovering [2] - U.S. copper mining stocks also saw widespread declines, with McEwen dropping over 6% and Freeport (FCX) falling more than 5% in early trading [2]

智利不会报复美国关税。（Emol） 智利财长预计，将获得（美国总统特朗普的）铜关税豁免。 ...

市场消息：欧盟贸易负责人表示，关税豁免清单可进一步增加。 ...

Group 1 - The core discussion between the US and EU revolves around the potential tariff exemptions for wine and spirits, which are still under negotiation despite the overall framework of the trade agreement being established [1] - According to data from the European Union's statistical office, alcoholic beverages are one of the main export products from the EU to the US [1]

Group 1 - Trump's recent Middle East visit resulted in significant military purchase contracts and investment commitments from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, totaling thousands of billions of dollars [1] - Qatar gifted Trump a Boeing aircraft, showcasing the high-level diplomatic relations during his visit [1] - Despite these apparent successes, Trump faces a critical situation with only 90 days remaining to address ongoing challenges, particularly in U.S.-China relations [1] Group 2 - Following the initiation of a tariff war in April, Trump granted a 90-day temporary tariff exemption to most trade partners, aiming to negotiate new trade agreements [3] - However, no country, except the UK, reached an agreement with the Trump administration, while China unexpectedly secured a tax reduction agreement with the U.S. [3] - This outcome indicates a failure of Trump's tariff strategy, as he did not achieve the concessions he anticipated from China [3] Group 3 - On May 14, China's Ministry of Commerce announced a 90-day suspension of export control measures against 28 U.S. entities, which previously restricted military-related exports [5] - Additionally, measures against 17 U.S. entities listed as "unreliable" will also be adjusted, allowing for a temporary reprieve from restrictions on trade and investment in China [6] - These actions are seen as a strategic move to ease tensions and facilitate the implementation of agreements reached during U.S.-China trade talks [8] Group 4 - The 90-day exemption period for U.S. companies is critical, as it hinges on Trump's actions and performance in the coming weeks [8] - Trump's recent statements indicate a willingness to engage with China, highlighting the strategic importance of U.S.-China relations on a global scale [8][10] - The urgency for Trump to resolve issues related to the supply of strategic minerals from China is underscored, as these resources are vital for U.S. technology and defense sectors [11] Group 5 - China has implemented strategic mineral export controls and is actively combating smuggling to protect its resource security [13] - The U.S. faces significant challenges in the rare earth sector due to technological limitations, which has become a critical vulnerability [13] - Trump's need for reconciliation with China is driven by the necessity to secure essential resources for U.S. industries [13]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading below 9390, with a recent report showing a price of 9372 USD/oz, down 0.53% from the opening at 9300 USD/oz, indicating a short-term sideways trend [1] - The highest price reached today was 9447 USD/oz, while the lowest was 9290 USD/oz, suggesting volatility within the trading session [1] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on negotiations with the US despite plans for counter-tariffs, indicating positive progress in trade discussions [3] - A proposed framework similar to the US-Japan trade agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on EU goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30% tariff [3] - Key industries such as automotive and pharmaceuticals may be affected, with potential tariff exemptions for certain sectors, although high tariffs on steel remain a contentious issue [3] - The EU may consider reducing some tariffs, such as the current 10% on car imports, as part of a "tariff for tariff" strategy [3] Group 3 - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with a support level established at 9300 and a potential resistance at 9550 [4] - Short-term trading is expected to remain within a high-level fluctuation range, with key levels to watch being 9300 for support and 9550 for resistance [4] - The market sentiment suggests caution against overly aggressive bullish positions, with a focus on potential breakout points for further movement [4]