今日周二，黄金开盘先行走低，受到避险拉升后的获利了结，以及市场等待本周非农等重磅数据的公 布，而有所观望。 反之，如数据减弱降息前景，但只要没有完全消退降息预期，也都是多头的入场机会，再加上地缘局势 这十多年来一直都是处于不确定和升级的预期当中，目前市场也普遍预期美联储在2026年将至少降息两 次。特别是在宽松周期中，当下通胀率超过2%时，黄金价格回归历史平均上涨13%来看。金价2026仍 将维持牛市发展。 日图；金价昨日大幅反弹重返短期均线之上，多头占据优势，虽有缺口回补的风险，但在回补之前，仍 先维持正常的支撑看涨思路，下方关注5/10日均线支撑为多单入场位，上方关注布林带上轨或新高为目 标。 但如果地缘政治紧张局势进一步扩大，或美国经济数据强化了美联储将采取更激进宽松政策的预期，黄 金很可能再次挑战历史新高，并再度连续攀升。 综合来看，当下仍处于央行持续购金，避险需求和宽松周期等的共振局面，历史经验告诉我们，这将会 导致黄金的上涨空间和牛市动力继续延续和扩大。 ...

Geopolitical Tensions - The global geopolitical situation is increasingly tense [1] U.S. Military Movements - A significant number of U.S. military aircraft, including at least 10 C-17 transport planes, have been observed flying to Europe from the U.S. between January 3 and January 5 [2][4] - The aircraft movements have raised speculation about potential special operations by the U.S. military in the region [4] - The C-17s are believed to be transporting helicopters, with some aircraft originating from the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment [4] Iran's Military Readiness - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, stated that the Iranian armed forces are on high alert and enhancing their readiness in response to potential new attacks [6][7] - Baghaei criticized U.S. and Israeli officials for their comments regarding Iran's internal unrest, labeling them as psychological warfare and media propaganda aimed at pressuring Iran [6][7] - The Iranian government is closely monitoring actions from the U.S. and Israel, asserting that it will not neglect its sovereignty and territorial integrity [6][7]

今日国内金店黄金价格整体上涨，品牌金价较昨日（1月4日）普遍上调。其中，周大福、潮宏基、周大生黄金价格均为 1378元/克，并列市场最高价；上海中国黄金价格保持1285元/克不变，仍为市场最低价。两者价差为93元/克。 上周五的金价波动主要还是紧张的地缘政治局势推动市场避险情绪升温；美联储降息预期的强化，美元走弱支撑金价。而 部分投资者选择在金价冲高后提前获利了结，以及CME期所上调黄金交易保证金的行为，又限制了金价的涨幅。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： 今日金价暴涨主要是美国在上周六对委内瑞拉进行的军事行动，以及抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的行为直接引爆市场避险需 求。而美国总统特朗普还在后续采访中继续威胁委内瑞拉代总统，如不配合，将付出更严重代价，还称美国"绝对需要格陵 兰岛"。 | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年1月5日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1377 | 元/克 | 21 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1376 | 元/克 | 21 | 涨 | | 周 ...

Core Points - Leonardo DiCaprio was unable to attend the Palm Springs International Film Festival to receive the "Desert Palm Achievement Award" due to unexpected travel disruptions and airspace restrictions caused by geopolitical tensions in Venezuela [1][2] - DiCaprio received the award for his performance in the film "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood," which is also a contender for the upcoming Academy Awards [2][3] Group 1 - The "Desert Palm Achievement Award" was still conferred to DiCaprio in recognition of his outstanding contributions to the film industry despite his absence [1] - The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a notice prohibiting U.S. airlines from flying in certain airspace over the Caribbean, leading to the cancellation of hundreds of flights on the day of the festival [2][3] - The Palm Springs International Airport announced that the FAA's notice affected Southern California airspace, resulting in delays and suspensions of departing flights from multiple airports, including Palm Springs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that foreign exchange rates are crucial indicators in the international financial market, affecting cross-border trade costs, multinational companies' financial conditions, and individual investors' asset allocation choices [1] - Economic fundamentals, including economic growth, inflation rates, and unemployment rates, are identified as key long-term determinants of exchange rate trends [1] - Central bank monetary policy, particularly adjustments in benchmark interest rates and money supply, has a direct and short-term impact on exchange rates [1] Group 2 - The balance of international payments, particularly the current account, directly influences exchange rate stability, with a surplus indicating stronger currency support [2] - Geopolitical changes can lead to sudden impacts on exchange rates, as political conflicts or increased policy uncertainty can weaken market confidence in a currency [2] - Market sentiment and investor risk appetite significantly guide capital flows, affecting currency valuations during periods of heightened risk aversion [2] Group 3 - For countries reliant on commodity exports, fluctuations in international commodity prices are closely linked to currency exchange rates, with rising prices supporting currency strength [3] - Technical factors, such as the prevalence of algorithmic trading, can exacerbate short-term exchange rate volatility due to rapid execution of trades triggered by specific signals [3]

今日国内金店黄金价格在昨日大幅下跌后整体企稳，多数品牌金价与昨日持平。其中，老凤祥上涨3元/克，报价1366元/ 克，成为今日市场最高价；上海中国黄金价格保持1285元/克不变，仍为市场最低价。两者价差为81元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年12月31日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1365 | 元/克 | 6 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1361 | 元/克 | 0 | में | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1363 | 元/克 | 0 | 기 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1348 | 元/克 | 2 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1361 | 元/克 | 0 | में | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1366 | 元/克 | 3 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1363 | 元/克 | 0 | गर | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1355 | 元/克 | 2 | 涨 | | 菜百黄金价格 | 1342 | 元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping market shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of spot and futures prices". The freight rate has rebounded for multiple consecutive weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control cabin space and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, leading to an improvement in cabin loading rates. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, with some shipping companies testing re - entry into the market, but overall caution remains. In the short term, the freight rate may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure. Future attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of re - entry into the market [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: It is a positive factor. In the Gemini Alliance, MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to $2540/FEU, a $40 increase compared to the opening, with the overall offline loading rate rising; HPL - SPOT's price in the first half of January dropped from $3535/FEU by $500 to $3035/FEU, and there is an expectation of a price increase back to $3535/FEU in the second half of January. In the OCEAN Alliance, OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat compared to the previous period, at $3180 - 3230/FEU, and CMA's freight rate rose slightly from $3245/FEU to $3293/FEU. In the MSC&PA Alliance, ONE has an online price increase expectation of $2835/FEU in the second half of January, consistent with the announced increase in the first half. The offline FAK quote in the first half of January was $2800/FEU, a $400 increase compared to the end of December, and YML's offline quote is $2800/FEU, with special prices available for increased volume [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They are neutral. Houthi armed leaders warned of an "inevitable" new round of conflict with Israel, and criticized Arab countries seeking normalization of relations with Israel. Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes to reach a framework agreement to end the war when meeting with US President Trump, and is willing to submit a cease - fire plan to a referendum if Russia agrees to at least 60 days of cease - fire. US President Trump plans to announce multiple major measures regarding the Gaza issue in early January, but the next step depends on his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [3] - **Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The average weekly capacity deployment in October was 245,000 TEU, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. At the end of 2025, the demand for European container shipping remained strong, showing a super - seasonal recovery. Driven by the extended pre - Spring Festival stocking window in 2026 and the release of European importers' restocking needs, the booking volume continued to grow, and the fleet loading rate remained high. Coupled with the pre - adjustment of the supply chain under geopolitical situations, the enthusiasm of shippers to ship goods increased, supporting the continuous rise of freight rates [3] - **Investment View**: It is "oscillating". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: The report presents the price trends of European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices from 2023 to 2025 through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [6] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships of different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through multiple charts, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, and large - capacity container ships [11] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including different types of container ships such as feeder and post - Panamax [14] - **Demolition Volume**: The demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are shown, covering various container ship types [15] - **Future Delivery**: The future delivery volume of container ships from 2023 to 2029 is presented, with breakdowns by different time periods and loading capacities [20] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: The ship - breaking prices of container ships of different loading capacities from 2019 to 2025 are presented, along with the new - building price index and year - on - year change of container ships [27] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: The second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships of different loading capacities and ages from 2015 to 2025 are presented [33] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: The existing capacity, capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and average age at ship - breaking of container ships are presented through multiple charts, showing the development and status of the container ship fleet from 2015 to 2025 [42] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: The total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, OCEAN capacity deployment, and MSC capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 are presented through charts [57] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the capacity in thousands of TEU, the number of ships, and the proportion, is presented, along with the average age and duration of the retrofit and the average speed of container ships [67] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle capacity, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofitted container ships are presented through multiple charts [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, both gold and silver prices rose, hitting new all - time highs. Silver showed particularly strong performance, with a weekly increase of over 18% and a cumulative increase of over 170% this year. The price increase was supported by macro - level factors, fundamental factors, and changes in the price - spread structure [3]. - In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there are signs of a "short squeeze" in the silver market, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a phased adjustment due to the rapid price increase, especially during the New Year's Day holiday in China this week. It is recommended that existing long positions be gradually closed for profit, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [5]. - In the long term, the underlying logic of the precious metal bull market remains solid. Factors such as the continuous rise in the US federal government debt, the Fed still in a rate - cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will support the upward movement of the gold price center [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情及基本面指标跟踪 (Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking) 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Prices and Gold - Silver Ratio - Gold prices rose steadily, with the London spot gold at $4532.505 per ounce, up 4.41% from the previous week. The Shanghai gold futures main contract was at 1016.30 yuan per gram, up 3.71% [4]. - Silver prices soared, with the London spot silver at $79.3290 per ounce, up 18.31% from the previous week. The Shanghai silver futures main contract was at 18319 yuan per kilogram, up 19.14% [4]. - The domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios dropped to near 53 and 57 respectively, reaching the lowest levels since 2013, indicating that silver is no longer undervalued compared to gold [3]. 3.1.2 Price - Spread between Futures and Spot - For gold, the basis (TD - futures) was - 6.17 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 14.26%. The internal - external price difference was - 5.91 yuan per gram, with a weekly change rate of 70.32% [4]. - For silver, the basis (TD - futures) was 181 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 796.15%. The internal - external price difference was - 439 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly change rate of - 65.89% [4]. 3.1.3 ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR - ETF holdings increased by 18.59 tons to 1071.13 tons, a weekly increase of 1.77%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 10092 contracts to 233978 contracts, a weekly increase of 4.51% [4]. - Silver SLV - ETF holdings increased by 324 tons to 16391 tons, a weekly increase of 2.02%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8357 contracts to 36352 contracts, a weekly decrease of 18.69% [4]. 3.1.4 Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory increased by 5.98 tons to 97.692 tons, a weekly increase of 6.52%. COMEX gold inventory increased by 5.76 tons to 1125.67 tons, a weekly increase of 0.51% [4]. - SHFE silver inventory decreased by 80.20 tons to 819 tons, a weekly decrease of 8.92%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 124.39 tons to 13988 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.88%. SGE silver inventory increased by 117.71 tons to 832 tons, a weekly increase of 16.48% [4]. 3.2主要宏观指标跟踪 (Tracking of Major Macroeconomic Indicators) 3.2.1 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was at 98.0341, down 0.69% from the previous week. The US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.0042, down 0.42% [4]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was at 3.4749%, down 0.06% from the previous week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was at 4.1277%, down 0.23% [4]. 3.2.2 Economic Data - The US third - quarter GDP growth was strong, and the consumer confidence index rebounded for the first time in five months [61]. - The US November non - farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Job vacancies increased, and the labor participation rate increased. Wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year [66]. - Inflation in the US was relatively controllable. Core commodity inflation rebounded, while core service inflation declined. Consumer inflation expectations rose significantly [68][71]. 3.2.3 Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone declined, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented [77][78]. 3.2.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months. As of the end of November, China's gold reserves reached 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month [85]. - Global central banks still maintained net gold purchases. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. However, the gold - purchasing demand is expected to remain strong in the future [85].

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have shown a downward trend, with mainstream market prices falling to the range of 1403-1408 yuan per gram, a decrease from recent highs [1] - Major brands' gold prices are as follows: Lao Miao at 1403 yuan, Liu Fu at 1403 yuan, and Zhou Da Fu at 1405 yuan, all reflecting a decline [1] - Platinum jewelry prices have also decreased, with Zhou Da Fu's platinum price dropping by 29 yuan per gram to 950 yuan [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - Gold recycling prices have increased, with the following reference prices: 1001.40 yuan per gram for gold, 977.50 yuan for Cai Zi gold, and 967.20 yuan for Zhou Sheng Sheng gold [2] - The price differences among various brands for gold recycling are significant [2] Group 3: International Gold Prices - Last Friday, spot gold reached a record high of 4549.57 USD per ounce, closing at 4533.34 USD, up 1.19% [4] - Current spot gold shows a downward trend, reported at 4514.55 USD per ounce, down 0.39% [4] - The recent surge in gold prices was driven by expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions [4] - Market sentiments have slightly eased following a meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, impacting gold prices negatively [4] - Short-term gold prices may experience downward pressure due to profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions, although overall prices are expected to remain high [4]

来源：领峰贵金属 一、基本面： 黄金多头浪延续攻击到历史高位4545.0美金附近，因市场对2026年美联储降息预期及地缘政治局势加剧 共同推动黄金多头上涨。短线市场聚焦俄乌谈判结果，若出现利好局面，黄金短线恐下跌调整。 当地时间12月28日下午，美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基在美国佛罗里达州海湖庄园举行会晤。 特朗普在会后表示，会谈取得多项进展，但俄乌"和平计划"中关键的领土问题尚未达成一致；在安全保 障议题上，泽连斯基称美乌已100%达成一致，特朗普则表示双方共识度约为95%。对于谈判时间表， 特朗普指出若进展顺利可能"几周内就会有结果"，若遇阻力则可能延迟甚至无法达成协议。特朗普强调 当前谈判是"极其复杂、细节密集的"，但他对最终达成协议持谨慎乐观态度。此次会晤凸显了俄乌冲突 调解进程中领土问题的敏感性，以及各方在安全保障机制建设上的积极进展。 12月28日，俄国家杜马国际事务委员会主席斯卢茨基在接受媒体采访时表示，俄美两国在原则上已达成 共识，将举行俄罗斯国家杜马议员和美国国会议员的会见，但会谈地点和时间目前尚未确定。斯卢茨基 表示，本次会见不是形式上的为了会见而举行的，而是需要成果，是为了国家利益 ...