1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]