1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests unilateral and arbitrage to remain on the sidelines [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic disturbances and peak - season expectations are driving the EC main contract to operate strongly. Although the overall demand is neutral, short - term macro - level positives, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will continue to support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early November, MSK quoted $2300, HPL quoted $2150, OOCL quoted $2250, EMC quoted $2500, MSC quoted $2250, YML quoted $1700, and HMM and ONE quoted $1900 [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Sino - US trade policy relaxation has released positive signals, but the agreement is short - term and may not lead to significant changes in supply - chain strategies. The US government shutdown has also affected the implementation of tariff policies [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - **Demand**: The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, with significant differences among alliances. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Outlook and Strategy**: Short - term macro - positives, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to try long positions on the main contract at low prices, while closely monitoring suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [5] 3.2 Price - The report presents various price charts, including the European Line Index, the US West Line Index, the US East Line Index, and spot quotes from Maersk on the European line [9][15] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [18] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities are presented, as well as future delivery forecasts [21][27] - **Prices**: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand ship price of container ships in different loading capacities [34][40] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, ships over 25 years old, and idle and retrofit ratios [51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances on the Shanghai - European Base Port route are shown [64][66] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It presents the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed, and to - be - installed desulfurization towers in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage [74][75] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships and the average speed by loading capacity are provided [79] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships, including total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and idle capacity ratio, is analyzed [82]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报（EC）】 宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动EC主力反弹 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-27 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：宏观扰动及旺季预期先行，带动E C主力反弹 | 影响因素 驱动 | | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货运价 利多 | | 10月下旬马士基报价1800-1900，HPL报价1900、OOCL报价2600，CMA报价2100，EMC报价2050、MSC报价2050，YML报价1350，ONE报价1450；11月 | | | | 上旬HPL报价2500、CMA报价2800，EMC报价2700、MSC报价2550，YML报价1350，ONE报价2550。 | | | | 【1】美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周日表示，他已与中国副总理何立峰达成"一项非常实质性的框架协议"，该协议将避免对中国产品征收 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping index shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness due to factors such as the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations. The spot freight rate has a mixed impact, with price increases planned but also uncertainties. Political and economic factors are complex, including the progress of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, potential tariff adjustments, and diplomatic meetings. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, with changes in weekly average capacity deployment in different months and overall loading rates lower than in previous years. The demand is also neutral, with a differentiation in loading rates among shipping alliances. The first round of price support in late October has initially stopped the decline, and the market has entered the second round in early November, with more price - support attempts in the next two months. However, future trends still depend on changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and the situation of empty sailings in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts** - **Spot Freight Rate**: It has both positive and negative impacts. In late October, the overall price increase was expected to be between 1800 - 2000, but finally landed at 1500 - 1800, and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: There are many uncertainties. For example, the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has core issues to be resolved, Egypt has suffered shipping losses due to Houthi attacks, the US may adjust tariffs, and there are diplomatic meetings to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 305,000, 250,000 in October, 280,000 in November, and 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than in previous years [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. There is a differentiation in loading rates among alliances. PA + MSC has a relatively low loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, it is on hold. Risks to focus on include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data charts showing the trends of European line index, US West line index, US East line index, and Mediterranean line index, as well as the spot quotes of Maersk's European line [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data charts showing the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [14] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data charts showing the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [17][19] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data charts showing the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [18][20] - **Future Delivery**: There are data charts showing the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods [23][25][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data charts showing the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [30] - **New - Building Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the new - building price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities [30][32] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [36][38][40][42] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships** - There are data charts showing the total existing shipping capacity, the existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, the existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age by loading capacity [45][46][48][49][52][54] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are data charts showing the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, the shipping capacity deployment of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN in different weeks [60][62][64][66][68] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers** - There are data charts showing the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, the number and proportion of container ships being installed with desulfurization towers, the average age and duration of retrofitting desulfurization towers, and the average speed of container ships [71][74][75][77] - **Idle Shipping Capacity** - There are data charts showing the idle shipping capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, the idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, the hot - idle shipping capacity, and the shipping capacity of ships being retrofitted with desulfurization towers [79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Spot Freight Rate**: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - **Political and Economic**: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships**: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers**: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]