1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "volatile", and the trading strategy is "bearish on rallies in the off - season", with a 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current trading in the container shipping index is sluggish, and there is limited driving force under low valuations. The spot freight rate is affected by the pre - holiday decline and the differentiation adjustment of each alliance, showing a downward trend. Political and economic factors are neutral. The supply of shipping capacity shows a certain change trend, and the demand is bearish in the short and long term. The container shipping index shows a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectations and reality" this week, with the futures and spot markets showing different performances. In the medium and long term, the risk of over - capacity needs to be vigilant [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: It is in a pre - holiday decline, with each alliance making differentiated adjustments. For example, in the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100/FEU, and further decreased to $1995/FEU in WK7; Hapag - Lloyd maintained at $2300 - 2500/FEU in WK6 and remained stable in WK7. In the OA alliance, the price in WK6 dropped slightly to around $2500/FEU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to $2200 - 2300/FEU. In the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between $2200 - 2400/FEU in WK6, and in WK7, affected by ONE's WK8 list price of $2000/FEU, the average price approached $2000/FEU, and some special prices for bulk cargo were $1800/FEU. MSC also slightly lowered its price following the market rhythm. Overall, affected by the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum period, the quotes of each alliance showed a downward trend [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They are neutral. The US and Iran are still sending mixed signals, and the market's probability of predicting military strikes has slightly decreased. The Wall Street Journal reported that the possibility of the US launching an air strike on Iran in the near future is low, and the "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: It shows different levels in different months. In November 2025, the weekly average shipping capacity was about 270,000 TEU; in December 2025, it was about 300,000 TEU; in January 2026, it was 313,000 - 321,000 TEU; in February 2026, it was 255,000 TEU; in March 2026, it was 280,000 TEU [3] - **Demand**: In the short term, approaching the Spring Festival, shippers have stocked up in advance, but there is no traditional pre - holiday small peak season. In the next two weeks (WK6 - WK7), the cargo volume will enter a pre - holiday vacuum period, and the pressure on shipping companies to attract cargo will increase. Only the rush - export of photovoltaic and other categories in the first quarter will provide a slight support for the cargo volume, mainly for pre - holiday replenishment. In the long term, in 2026, the demand in Europe and the US will be differentiated. European infrastructure and reconstruction may moderately boost the cargo volume, while the US inventory replenishment is delayed and has limited elasticity. Coupled with policy pressures such as the EU's anti - subsidy investigation, the global demand growth rate will slow down, and the growth rate of shipping capacity is higher than that of demand, resulting in an expanding supply - demand gap, and the demand side will continue to be under pressure to support freight rates [3] - **Summary**: This week, the EC shows a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectations and reality", with the futures and spot markets showing different performances. The futures market is supported by multiple expectations and has increased. The core logic lies in the rush - shipping expectation caused by the cancellation of photovoltaic tax refunds, which supports the contracts after April. Coupled with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the disturbance of extreme weather in Northwest Europe, it temporarily boosts the market sentiment. The spot market continues to be weak. The pre - holiday cargo volume enters a vacuum period, and shipping companies continue to reduce prices to attract cargo, resulting in an overall decline in freight rates. The SCFIS European line settlement index also decreased month - on - month. The weak supply - demand reality suppresses the near - month contracts. In the medium and long term, the risk of over - capacity needs to be vigilant. The concentrated delivery of new ships in 2026 and the resumption of the Red Sea route will release hidden shipping capacity and continuously suppress the freight rate center. The strategy should be cautious, not chasing high prices. Hedging should be held, and arbitrage positions can be gradually reduced. Key points to track include the implementation of shipping companies' price increase announcements, signals of the Red Sea route resumption, and cargo volume data, and control the operation rhythm and risks [3] 3.2 Price - The report provides line charts of multiple shipping route indexes, including the European line index, the US West line index, the US East line index, etc., but no specific analysis content is provided [6] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [11] - **Delivery Volume**: It shows the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 5999 TEU, 6000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [14] - **Demolition Volume**: It shows the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 5999 TEU, 6000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [14][15] - **Future Delivery**: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities, including different loading capacity ranges such as 0 - 3000 TEU, 3000 - 6000 TEU, 6000 - 8000 TEU, 8000 - 12000 TEU, 12000 - 16999 TEU, >17000 TEU, etc., and also shows the quarterly seasonal chart of future delivery [20][22][23] - **Scrap Price**: It shows the scrap prices of container ships in different loading capacities, including different loading capacity ranges such as about 1000 TEU, about 1700 TEU, about 2000 TEU, etc., and also shows the new - building price index and second - hand price index of container ships [27][33] - **Existing Shipping Capacity**: It shows the existing shipping capacity of container ships in different loading capacities, including the total shipping capacity, the shipping capacity of different age groups, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of scrapped ships [42][45][49] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: It shows the shipping capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) on the Shanghai - European base port route from week 13 to week 28 [57][59][61] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It shows the situation of container ships with desulfurization towers installed, being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [67][70][72] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: It shows the idle shipping capacity of container ships, including the total idle shipping capacity, the idle shipping capacity in different loading capacity ranges, the proportion of idle shipping capacity, and the hot - idle shipping capacity [75][76][77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current freight rates on the European route are fluctuating at a high level. The mid - to - late - month quotes of each alliance are generally higher than those in the early month. The OA alliance has the highest overall freight rate level, and the separate quote of MSC has a significant increase [3]. - Politically and economically, the situation is neutral. There are events such as the US's "large - scale strike" on Venezuela and Trump's meeting with Netanyahu to promote the second - stage cease - fire in Gaza, but the progress is limited [3]. - In terms of capacity supply, it is a negative factor. The average weekly capacity deployment in November was 265,000 TEU, 290,000 TEU in December, and 310,000 TEU in January [3]. - The demand for container shipping on the European route remained strong at the end of 2025, showing a super - seasonal recovery. Driven by the extended Spring Festival stocking window period in 2026 and the replenishment demand of European importers, the booking volume continued to grow, and the fleet loading rate remained high. The overall demand showed strong resilience, supporting the continuous increase in freight rates [3]. - In the short term, the freight rates may peak in mid - January. The market has adjustment pressure, and future attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of resuming flights [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Effects**: - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bullish. Different alliances have different freight rate trends. For example, the OA alliance has a significant increase in freight rates from wk1 to wk2, and MSC's freight rates also rise significantly from wk1 to wk3 [3]. - **Political and Economic Situation**: Neutral. There are major international political events, but their impact on the container shipping market is not one - sided [3]. - **Capacity Supply**: Bearish. The capacity deployment is increasing month by month [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The demand for container shipping on the European route is strong, with continuous growth in booking volume and high fleet loading rates [3]. - **Summary and Investment Viewpoints**: The market is in an oscillating state. The short - term freight rates may peak in mid - January, and the trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the trends of various shipping route indexes including the European route index, the US - West route index, and the US - East route index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [6]. 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years through charts, including new - order volumes and order - to - fleet ratios for different types of container ships [11]. - **Delivery Volume**: Charts are used to display the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [14][16]. - **Demolition Volume**: The demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years is presented in charts [15][17]. - **Future Delivery**: The future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities, quarterly seasonal charts, and total future delivery volume over the years are shown in charts [20][22][23]. - **Ship - Breaking Price**: The ship - breaking prices of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change are presented in charts [27]. - **New - Building Ship Price**: The new - building prices of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index are shown in charts [28][29]. - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: The second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships in different loading capacities and ages are presented in charts [33][35][37]. - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: The existing capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, percentage, different loading capacities, age structure (including ships over 25 years old, average age, and ship - breaking average age), and the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships are shown in charts [42][44][45]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: The total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, MSC capacity deployment, and OCEAN capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports in different weeks are presented in charts [57][59][61][63][65]. - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Information about container ships with installed desulfurization towers (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), those under desulfurization tower installation (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships (overall and by loading capacity) are presented in charts [67][68][71]. - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships (in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage), idle capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle capacity, and capacity under desulfurization tower installation are presented in charts [75][76][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping market shows a trend of "simultaneous strengthening of spot and futures prices". The freight rate has rebounded for multiple consecutive weeks, with both spot and futures prices rising steadily. Shipping companies are strongly willing to control cabin space and support prices. The demand side benefits from pre - Spring Festival stocking and restocking needs, leading to an improvement in cabin loading rates. On the supply side, empty sailings have decreased, and effective capacity has tightened. The Red Sea situation has marginally eased, with some shipping companies testing re - entry into the market, but overall caution remains. In the short term, the freight rate may peak in early January, and the market faces adjustment pressure. Future attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the progress of re - entry into the market [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rate**: It is a positive factor. In the Gemini Alliance, MSK's freight rate in the second week of January rose to $2540/FEU, a $40 increase compared to the opening, with the overall offline loading rate rising; HPL - SPOT's price in the first half of January dropped from $3535/FEU by $500 to $3035/FEU, and there is an expectation of a price increase back to $3535/FEU in the second half of January. In the OCEAN Alliance, OOCL's freight rate in the first half of January remained flat compared to the previous period, at $3180 - 3230/FEU, and CMA's freight rate rose slightly from $3245/FEU to $3293/FEU. In the MSC&PA Alliance, ONE has an online price increase expectation of $2835/FEU in the second half of January, consistent with the announced increase in the first half. The offline FAK quote in the first half of January was $2800/FEU, a $400 increase compared to the end of December, and YML's offline quote is $2800/FEU, with special prices available for increased volume [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They are neutral. Houthi armed leaders warned of an "inevitable" new round of conflict with Israel, and criticized Arab countries seeking normalization of relations with Israel. Ukrainian President Zelensky hopes to reach a framework agreement to end the war when meeting with US President Trump, and is willing to submit a cease - fire plan to a referendum if Russia agrees to at least 60 days of cease - fire. US President Trump plans to announce multiple major measures regarding the Gaza issue in early January, but the next step depends on his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [3] - **Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The average weekly capacity deployment in October was 245,000 TEU, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: It is a positive factor. At the end of 2025, the demand for European container shipping remained strong, showing a super - seasonal recovery. Driven by the extended pre - Spring Festival stocking window in 2026 and the release of European importers' restocking needs, the booking volume continued to grow, and the fleet loading rate remained high. Coupled with the pre - adjustment of the supply chain under geopolitical situations, the enthusiasm of shippers to ship goods increased, supporting the continuous rise of freight rates [3] - **Investment View**: It is "oscillating". The trading strategy is to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and international macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: The report presents the price trends of European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices from 2023 to 2025 through charts, but no specific data analysis is provided [6] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships of different loading capacities from 2015 to 2025 through multiple charts, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, and large - capacity container ships [11] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are presented, including different types of container ships such as feeder and post - Panamax [14] - **Demolition Volume**: The demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity of container ships from 2020 to 2025 are shown, covering various container ship types [15] - **Future Delivery**: The future delivery volume of container ships from 2023 to 2029 is presented, with breakdowns by different time periods and loading capacities [20] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: The ship - breaking prices of container ships of different loading capacities from 2019 to 2025 are presented, along with the new - building price index and year - on - year change of container ships [27] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: The second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships of different loading capacities and ages from 2015 to 2025 are presented [33] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: The existing capacity, capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and average age at ship - breaking of container ships are presented through multiple charts, showing the development and status of the container ship fleet from 2015 to 2025 [42] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: The total capacity deployment, PA + MSC capacity deployment, GEMINI capacity deployment, OCEAN capacity deployment, and MSC capacity deployment from week 13 to week 28 are presented through charts [57] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: The situation of container ships with installed and being - installed desulfurization towers, including the capacity in thousands of TEU, the number of ships, and the proportion, is presented, along with the average age and duration of the retrofit and the average speed of container ships [67] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, proportion of idle capacity, and the situation of hot - idle and desulfurization - tower - retrofitted container ships are presented through multiple charts [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the container shipping industry on European routes is "oscillating", with both short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes expected to be between - 5% and 5% [3][4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of container shipping rates has been poor, but shipping companies continue to announce price increases for January rates. The 12 - month contract of container shipping on European routes has entered the delivery month, and the market is verifying previous expectations. Although there are some signs supporting the bulls (such as price increase announcements), the overall market is still suppressed by the downward adjustment expectation. The key to future trends lies in the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates", especially the freight rate performance in mid - to late December [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bullish. In late December, MSK quoted $2400, HPL quoted $2050, and CMA quoted $3550. MSK announced a price increase to $3500 for January [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Major global liner company CMA CGM will change its INDAMEX route to pass through the Suez Canal. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024. European - related routes are significantly affected by supply - chain disruptions and supply - demand games. The FEWB route has a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9% in December, and the European Northern and Mediterranean main ports are congested. The TAWB route has serious congestion in Nordic and Mediterranean ports due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries [4] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. There is a differentiation in loading rates, with PA + MSC having the lowest loading rate in the alliance and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - **Summary**: Oscillating. The key to future trends is the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates" [4] - **Investment View**: Oscillating [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents price trends of various shipping routes through charts, including the European route index, the US - West route index, and the US - East route index [8] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods through charts [13] - **Delivery Volume**: It presents the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [16][18] - **Demolition Volume**: It shows the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [17][19] - **Future Delivery**: It provides information on the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods, including quarterly and annual data [22][24][25] - **Shipbreaking Price and New - building Price**: The report shows the shipbreaking price of container ships in different loading capacities, the new - building price index, and the new - building price of container ships in different loading capacities [29][31] - **Second - hand Ship Price**: It presents the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [35][37][39] - **Existing Capacity of Container Ships**: It includes the total existing capacity, the existing capacity in different loading capacities, the existing capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of shipbreaking [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: It shows the total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances such as PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [59][63][67] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It presents the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [70][73][74] - **Idle Capacity**: It shows the idle capacity of container ships in terms of TEU and the number of ships, the idle capacity in different loading capacities, and the proportion of idle capacity [78][79][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates in December landed poorly, and the EC showed a weak and volatile trend [3][4]. - The future market trend will present a weak and volatile pattern. The core driving factors include the landing quality of December freight rates, the implementation strength of the January price increase letter, and the seasonal changes in cargo volume [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logic**: - **Spot freight rates**: Negative. In early December, MSK quoted $2,200, HPL quoted $2,150, OOCL quoted $2,400, CMA quoted $2,650, and ONE quoted $2,200 [4]. - **Political and economic factors**: Negative. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have no specific time to adjust the "Gemini" route; CMA CGM's self - operated ships' return journey is almost 90% resumed, but the west - bound first - leg resumption has not increased; the Suez Canal is expected to fully recover ship traffic and normalize revenue by the end of 2026; Sino - US competition affects third - country trade agreements [4]. - **Capacity supply**: Neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, in October was 245,000, in November was 265,000, and in December was 290,000 [4]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, and there is a differentiation in loading rates between alliances [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Weak and volatile. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [4]. 3.2 Price - The report presents the trends of the European line index, the US West line index, and the US East line index through charts, including SCFIS, SCFI, and CCFI [8]. 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: Charts show the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [13]. - **Delivery Volume**: Charts display the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [16][18]. - **Demolition Volume**: Charts present the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [17][19]. - **Future Delivery**: Charts show the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities by year, quarter, etc. [22][24][25]. - **Ship - breaking Price**: Charts display the ship - breaking price of container ships in different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [29]. - **Second - hand Ship Price**: Charts show the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of different - age and different - capacity container ships [35][37][39]. - **Existing Capacity**: Charts present the existing capacity of container ships in terms of total volume, different loading capacities, ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofit ratios, average age, and ship - breaking average age [44][47][51]. 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: Charts show the total capacity deployment, the capacity deployments of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN on the Shanghai - European base port route from week 13 to week 28 [59][61][63]. - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Charts display the situation of container ships with installed desulfurization towers (in TEU, number of ships, and percentage), those under installation, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [70][73][74]. - **Idle Capacity**: Charts show the idle capacity of container ships (in TEU, number of ships, and percentage), idle capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle capacity, and capacity under desulfurization tower installation [78][79][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests unilateral and arbitrage to remain on the sidelines [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomic disturbances and peak - season expectations are driving the EC main contract to operate strongly. Although the overall demand is neutral, short - term macro - level positives, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will continue to support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early November, MSK quoted $2300, HPL quoted $2150, OOCL quoted $2250, EMC quoted $2500, MSC quoted $2250, YML quoted $1700, and HMM and ONE quoted $1900 [4] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Sino - US trade policy relaxation has released positive signals, but the agreement is short - term and may not lead to significant changes in supply - chain strategies. The US government shutdown has also affected the implementation of tariff policies [4] - **Capacity Supply**: The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - **Demand**: The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years, with significant differences among alliances. Key influencing factors include peak - season demand fulfillment, shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Outlook and Strategy**: Short - term macro - positives, capacity control, and price - support expectations will support the market. It is recommended to try long positions on the main contract at low prices, while closely monitoring suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates [5] 3.2 Price - The report presents various price charts, including the European Line Index, the US West Line Index, the US East Line Index, and spot quotes from Maersk on the European line [9][15] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [18] - **Delivery Volume**: The delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities are presented, as well as future delivery forecasts [21][27] - **Prices**: It includes the scrap price, new - building price, and second - hand ship price of container ships in different loading capacities [34][40] - **Existing Capacity**: The existing capacity of container ships is analyzed in terms of total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, ships over 25 years old, and idle and retrofit ratios [51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: The total capacity deployment and capacity deployment of different alliances on the Shanghai - European Base Port route are shown [64][66] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It presents the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed, and to - be - installed desulfurization towers in terms of TEU, number of ships, and percentage [74][75] - **Average Speed**: The average speed of container ships and the average speed by loading capacity are provided [79] - **Idle Capacity**: The idle capacity of container ships, including total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and idle capacity ratio, is analyzed [82]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the container shipping index for the European route is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Macro - disturbances and peak - season expectations have led to a rebound in the EC main contract. The current sanctions have little impact on the European route, which is in the year - end price - holding stage. The first attempt at price - holding in late October to stop the decline was initially successful, and it has now entered the second round in early November. There will be multiple rounds of year - end price - holding in the next two months, so the seasonal expectations are leading. However, attention should still be paid to changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and empty sailings in November [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logic** - **Spot Freight Rates (Likely Positive)**: In late October, Maersk quoted $1800 - 1900, HPL $1900, OOCL $2600, CMA $2100, EMC $2050, MSC $2050, YML $1350, and ONE $1450. In early November, HPL quoted $2500, CMA $2800, EMC $2700, MSC $2550, YML $1350, and ONE $2550 [3] - **Political and Economic (Likely Negative)**: There are positive signs in Sino - US trade relations; some shipping companies are re - flagging ships to India; the Suez Canal Authority expects its 2026 revenue to reach about $8 billion from the current $4 billion; the US and Vietnam have reached a trade framework agreement [3] - **Capacity Supply (Neutral)**: Weekly average capacity deployment was 305,000 in September, 250,000 in October, 280,000 in November, and 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [3] - **Demand (Neutral)**: There is a differentiation in loading rates. PA + MSC has the lowest loading rate in the alliance and is more likely to cut prices, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Investment View and Strategy** - **Investment View**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach (due to the short - term peak - season price increase claims being unfalsifiable and the market being in a bullish - biased oscillation). For arbitrage, also wait and see [3] 3.2 Price - The report presents multiple line charts showing the trends of various container shipping route indices (such as European route, US West route, US East route, and Mediterranean route indices) and Maersk's European route quotes for 20 - foot and 40 - foot containers [6][11] 3.3 Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: Multiple line charts display the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years [14] - **Delivery Volume**: Line charts show the delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2020 - 2025 [17][18] - **Future Delivery**: Charts present the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities from 2023 - 2029, including quarterly and seasonal data [23][25] - **Ship Prices**: Line charts show the scrap prices, new - building prices, and second - hand prices of container ships in different loading capacities [30][32][38] - **Existing Fleet**: Charts show the existing capacity, age, and idle capacity of container ships in different loading capacities [45][52][79] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: Line charts show the total capacity deployment and the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) on the Shanghai - European basic port route from week 13 to week 28 [60][62][64] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: Charts show the number and proportion of container ships with installed, being installed, and the average age and time for installing desulfurization towers, as well as the average speed and idle capacity of container ships [70][74][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping index shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness due to factors such as the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations. The spot freight rate has a mixed impact, with price increases planned but also uncertainties. Political and economic factors are complex, including the progress of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, potential tariff adjustments, and diplomatic meetings. The supply of shipping capacity is neutral, with changes in weekly average capacity deployment in different months and overall loading rates lower than in previous years. The demand is also neutral, with a differentiation in loading rates among shipping alliances. The first round of price support in late October has initially stopped the decline, and the market has entered the second round in early November, with more price - support attempts in the next two months. However, future trends still depend on changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and the situation of empty sailings in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts** - **Spot Freight Rate**: It has both positive and negative impacts. In late October, the overall price increase was expected to be between 1800 - 2000, but finally landed at 1500 - 1800, and the price increase notice for November is around 2500 [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: There are many uncertainties. For example, the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement has core issues to be resolved, Egypt has suffered shipping losses due to Houthi attacks, the US may adjust tariffs, and there are diplomatic meetings to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: It is neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 305,000, 250,000 in October, 280,000 in November, and 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than in previous years [3] - **Demand**: It is neutral. There is a differentiation in loading rates among alliances. PA + MSC has a relatively low loading rate and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is oscillating; for arbitrage, it is on hold. Risks to focus on include geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data charts showing the trends of European line index, US West line index, US East line index, and Mediterranean line index, as well as the spot quotes of Maersk's European line [6][7][8][9][11] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data charts showing the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [14] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data charts showing the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [17][19] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data charts showing the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [18][20] - **Future Delivery**: There are data charts showing the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods [23][25][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data charts showing the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities and the new - building price index and its year - on - year change [30] - **New - Building Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the new - building price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities [30][32] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data charts showing the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [36][38][40][42] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships** - There are data charts showing the total existing shipping capacity, the existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, the existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age by loading capacity [45][46][48][49][52][54] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)** - There are data charts showing the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, the shipping capacity deployment of PA + MSC, GEMINI, MSC, and OCEAN in different weeks [60][62][64][66][68] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers** - There are data charts showing the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, the number and proportion of container ships being installed with desulfurization towers, the average age and duration of retrofitting desulfurization towers, and the average speed of container ships [71][74][75][77] - **Idle Shipping Capacity** - There are data charts showing the idle shipping capacity of container ships in terms of TEU, number of ships, and proportion, the idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, the hot - idle shipping capacity, and the shipping capacity of ships being retrofitted with desulfurization towers [79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", specifically "oscillating weakly" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the Gaza peace talks and the deterioration of Sino - US relations, the European Container Freight Index (EC) shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot freight rate is favorable, but political and economic factors are unfavorable. The supply of shipping capacity and demand are neutral. In the new long - term agreement cycle in 2026, the market will continue the trend of "falling freight rates and increasing bargaining power of cargo owners". The resumption of the Suez route will likely be phased and verified, with the second quarter of next year as the first substantial observation point [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Spot Freight Rate**: Bullish. This week, the GEMINI price in early October dropped to 1500, OA to 1550, PA to 1400, and MSC to 1600. The FAK freight rate center in the market in late September was 1500, and the overall quotation range in late October was 2000 - 2200 (MSK's price increase letter indicates 2500 in early November) [3] - **Political and Economic**: Bearish. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese - origin goods from November 1. China announced new restrictions on rare - earth exports. The US adjusted the 232 - clause tariff on some products. Israel and Hamas reached a peace agreement, but there are still uncertainties [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The average weekly shipping capacity deployment in September was 305,000 TEU, 250,000 TEU in October, 280,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate declined rapidly, lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. The loading rate of GEMINI rebounded due to significant price cuts, while those of the other two alliances continued to decline [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillating weakly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and the 10 - 12 spread trading is in a long - short positive spread. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [3] 3.2 Price - **Spot Market**: There are data on European line indices, US - West line indices, and US - East line indices, as well as Maersk's European line quotations [6][12] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on order volume, new - order volume, and order volume by loading capacity [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on delivery volume and delivery volume by loading capacity [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on demolition volume and demolition volume by loading capacity [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on future delivery volume, future delivery volume by quarter and season, and future delivery volume by loading capacity [24][26] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on ship - breaking price by loading capacity and new - shipbuilding price index and price by loading capacity [31] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on second - hand ship price index and second - hand ship price by loading capacity [37] - **Existing Shipping Capacity of Container Ships**: There are data on existing shipping capacity, existing shipping capacity by loading capacity, existing shipping capacity of ships over 25 years old, idle and retrofitting ratios, average age, and average age of ship - breaking [46][49][53] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports)**: There are data on the total shipping capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, and the shipping capacity deployments of PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [61][63][65][67][69] - **Container Ships with Desulfurization Towers**: There are data on container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, average age and duration of installation, and average speed [71][72][75] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on idle shipping capacity, idle shipping capacity by loading capacity, hot - idle shipping capacity, and shipping capacity for desulfurization tower retrofitting [79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]