Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the implementation of anti-involution policies in Guangdong Province starting July 7, 2025, which aims to stabilize pricing and protect the rights of couriers [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Implementation of Anti-Involution Policies**: - Guangdong Province has established a guiding group to adjust pricing standards based on the cost standards set by the Yiwu Postal Administration, with prices for major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu set at approximately 1.48 CNY, 1.45 CNY, and 1.40 CNY per kilogram respectively [1][4]. - A 15-day lock period from August 5 to 20 was established to prevent cross-region pickups, with strict enforcement of the guiding prices [1][4]. - **Market Performance**: - The average growth rate of the express delivery industry in the first half of 2025 was 16.8%, with a decline of 6.8%. The expected annual growth rate is projected to reach 18% to 19% [6]. - Daily average package volume in Guangdong reached 129 million, accounting for about 40% of the national total, with Zhongtong leading at 34 million packages daily [2]. - **Pricing Adjustments**: - The average price for regular franchisees ranges from 1.20 to 1.25 CNY per kilogram, while discounted express services are priced lower, with Zhongtong's special express at approximately 1.05 CNY [2][5]. - A price increase of 0.2 CNY per package was implemented across all brands in Guangdong, with adjustments based on market conditions [5]. - **Competitive Dynamics**: - Zhongtong and Yuantong are expected to benefit from the price adjustments, as they can narrow the cost gap with competitors, enhancing their competitive edge [7][8]. - Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu are focusing on price increases to mitigate losses [7]. - **Future Outlook**: - The express delivery market is expected to see a stable and prolonged price increase trend, particularly during peak seasons from August to September [5]. - The introduction of mandatory social insurance for couriers is anticipated to further drive price increases, with an expected average rise of around 0.15 CNY [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: - Zhongtong's system cost is approximately 1.25 CNY per kilogram, leading to widespread losses among outlets due to pricing pressures [3]. - The profit margins between different brands vary significantly, with Zhongtong's single ticket profit at 0.26 CNY and Yuantong at 0.15 CNY, indicating a direct impact on pricing power [17]. - **Strategic Moves by Companies**: - Shentong's acquisition of Alibaba's Dan Niao may provide short-term benefits, but long-term success will depend on improving pricing capabilities in the low-price segment [9]. - Jitu faces challenges with network integration post-acquisition of Best Express, leading to increased operational costs [10]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: - There is currently no significant shortage of couriers, with average earnings between 7,000 to 12,000 CNY. However, upcoming regulations requiring social insurance may lead to fluctuations in labor supply [22]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the express delivery industry's current state, competitive landscape, and future expectations.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the recent "anti-involution" policies and their impact on pricing and competition in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increases**: Recent data indicates that express delivery prices in Yiwu and Guangdong have increased, with Yiwu's 0.3 kg regular item price rising by approximately 0.05 CNY compared to June, and Guangdong's 0.1 kg special item price increasing by 0.05 to 0.10 CNY [1][3]. - **Government Intervention**: The State Post Bureau has held meetings to address the issue of cutthroat competition, urging companies to stabilize their networks. Guangdong's drug administration has mandated price increases starting August 1, aligning with Yiwu's standards [2][3]. - **Historical Policy Review**: The effectiveness of past anti-involution policies is reviewed, noting that while the 2021 policies successfully raised industry price levels, the 2023 and 2024 price increases have only provided temporary support due to previous intense competition and cost pressures during the pandemic [1][5][6]. - **Profitability Pressure**: The current price competition is intensifying, with special pricing policies lowering average prices. Although headquarters are gaining more volume, this has led to reduced delivery fees for outlets, increasing operational pressure on both headquarters and franchisees, resulting in a decline in per-package profit [1][7][8]. Additional Important Content - **Future Profit Elasticity**: If significant price increases can be achieved, the profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery companies will notably increase. For instance, under a hypothetical price increase of 3% to 10%, companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong could see profit elasticity ranging from 10% to 34% and 18% to 60%, respectively [9]. - **Demand Forecast**: The overall demand for e-commerce express delivery is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 15% in the near future. The anti-involution policies are anticipated to stabilize prices, potentially reducing the intensity of competition in the latter half of the year [10]. - **Long-term Competition Dynamics**: While competition is expected to persist, stronger network capabilities among leading mid-tier companies will likely enhance their competitive advantages. Attention should also be given to improvements in last-mile efficiency and the development of autonomous delivery vehicles [10].

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is facing multiple challenges including intensified market competition, the influence of e-commerce platforms, and regulatory pressures, leading to a pronounced issue of overcapacity [1][2] - Technological advancements and improvements in transportation efficiency are further driving down prices, resulting in reduced cost and brand premium differences among companies, making price competition the primary strategy [1][2] Core Points and Arguments - The regulatory framework aims to alleviate cash flow pressures on franchisees, stabilize employment, enhance service satisfaction, and address issues like illegal charges in rural delivery [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy is designed to stabilize the competitive baseline of the industry, preventing competition below cost and improving service quality, although it is not expected to change the market structure significantly [1][3] - Price increases have a significant impact on the profitability elasticity of listed companies, but the effects vary by region and customer tier, making it difficult to generalize price increases across the board [1][6] - Major express delivery companies such as Shentong, Yunda, YTO, and ZTO have room for improvement in EPS, but volatility may increase due to recent price increases [1][7] Important but Overlooked Content - The anti-involution policy has positive implications for investors, but the long-term stability of profitability and valuation improvements are limited [4] - The impact of price increases on overall network performance varies; for instance, a price increase of 0.8 to 0.9 yuan per kilogram may have limited overall network impact (15%-20% of the national average) [4] - The express delivery industry is currently experiencing a high concentration level (CR8 at approximately 85%), indicating a clear oligopoly effect, which suggests that while policies may not alter market dynamics, they will influence the competitive baseline [3] - The success of price increases depends on specific conditions, including the need for reasonable profitability and income levels as desired by regulators [5] Future Market Expectations - Market expectations in the coming months will hinge on the implementation of price increases, including specific regions, magnitude, and sustainability [8] - As the industry enters a peak season, the early initiation of price increases in 2025 suggests that further related policies may emerge, likely serving as positive catalysts for the market [8]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.37% at 3559.95 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.17% to 10991.32 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.24% to 2322.63 points, indicating a general downward trend in the market [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 16.2 billion yuan, a decrease of over 3.4 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Sectors such as insurance, brokerage, military industry, oil, and semiconductors experienced declines, while logistics, environmental protection, media, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] Investment Opportunities - The International Energy Agency predicts that global data center electricity consumption will more than double by 2030, reaching approximately 945 TWh, which will account for nearly 3% of total global electricity consumption [2] - Chinese power equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the increasing demand for electricity driven by AI, with exports of power transformers projected to grow by over 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2] Industry Developments - The express delivery industry is seeing a shift towards "anti-involution" policies, with the State Post Bureau actively opposing "involution-style" competition, which is expected to stabilize prices and support the industry's recovery [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a digital transformation implementation plan for the machinery industry, aiming for significant advancements in digitalization and smart manufacturing by 2030 [4] Robotics and Technology - The 2025 World Robot Conference will showcase over 100 new robot products, with participation from more than 200 domestic and international robotics companies [5][6] - A significant breakthrough was achieved with the successful transportation of materials to offshore platforms using a ton-level unmanned aerial vehicle, marking a key advancement in logistics applications [7] Company Updates - Leshan Electric announced a price adjustment for residential gas sales, which is expected to increase the company's gas sales gross profit by approximately 2.7 million yuan in 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [11] Core Insights - The express delivery industry, although not listed among the top ten "anti-involution" sectors, has shown strong stock performance and exceeded expectations in July, reflecting a "latecomer advantage" [2][6] - The industry's characteristics of "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing growth," and "price increase acceptance" drive its performance [2][6] Summary by Sections Stabilizing Employment - The express delivery sector is a significant reservoir for employment, with over 4 million direct workers in 2024, highlighting its role in the flexible employment market [19][21] - The low social security coverage for delivery workers emphasizes the importance of the sector in stabilizing employment [22] Stabilizing Growth - The profitability of express delivery headquarters is under pressure, with average monthly prices dropping to around 2 yuan, leading to intensified price competition [25][26] - The report notes that the pressure on franchise operators is at historical highs, with some facing cash flow issues, necessitating a stable operational environment [26] Price Increase Acceptance - The average cost rate for online shopping express delivery is approximately 5.2%, indicating a relatively high acceptance of price increases among e-commerce customers [34][39] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures could positively impact the quality of service and operational stability in the express delivery industry [34]

港股8月开局不利，三大指数继续承压走低，尾盘跌幅有所扩大。截止收盘，恒生指数跌1.07%或265.52 点，报24507.81点，大市交投缩减，全日成交额为2546.74亿港元；恒生国企指数跌0.88%，报8804.42 点；恒生科技指数跌1.02%，报5397.4点。全周来看，恒指累跌3.47%，国指累跌3.78%，恒科指累跌 4.94%。 东吴证券指出，往后看，市场担心海外风险上行。一是，美元资产继续上涨，或会导致全球资金减少对 中国资产的关注；二是，对等关税截止日临近，市场预期关税博弈更偏向税率"缓"+"降"。交银国际认 为，港股市场当前流动性状态仍较为充裕，估值水平保持合理，适度的市场拥挤度也为投资者提供了较 为理想的配置窗口。 蓝筹股表现 5.71港元。 1.个别快递股逆市走高。截至收盘，中通快递-W(02057)涨7.44%，报163.2港元；极兔速递-W(01519)涨 2.52%，报10.58港元。 7月29日，国家邮政局召开快递企业座谈会，就依法依规治理行业"内卷式"竞争，强化农村地区领取快 件违规收费等突出问题整治，促进行业高质量发展进行座谈交流。据现代物流报，7月17日义乌邮管局 已率先 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [8]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is expected to experience a "de-involution" phase, with significant policy catalysts anticipated in the upcoming months. The transition from the off-peak to peak season is expected to enhance the pricing power of express companies [2][11]. - The pricing increase duration is projected to be between 2 to 4 months, with a price increase of 0.06 to 0.30 yuan per ticket expected during the peak season. The profit per ticket is anticipated to improve by 0.01 to 0.10 yuan in Q4 [2][11]. - The average profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery is expected to reach double digits, with second-tier express companies showing even more significant profit elasticity [2][11]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The report discusses the recent meeting of the State Post Bureau, which emphasized the need to combat "involution" in the express delivery sector. It addresses three main questions: the timing and sustainability of the current "de-involution," the profit elasticity for core enterprises, and the tools available for this process [6]. Pricing Dynamics - The report analyzes historical pricing trends, indicating that the current "de-involution" phase may be catalyzed by policy changes, with pricing increases expected to last longer than in 2024 but shorter than in 2021. The report references past data to illustrate potential outcomes [11][20]. Profit Elasticity - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit elasticity for major express companies, projecting that if the industry begins to raise prices in August and continues until December, the net profit for companies like Zhongtong, Yunda, and Shentong could reach 95.8 billion, 40.6 billion, and 17.4 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding profit elasticities of 6.5%, 12.7%, and 27.9% [20][21]. Tools for "De-involution" - The report identifies two main strategies for achieving "de-involution": regulatory measures to curb price wars and encouraging mergers and acquisitions among leading companies to optimize competition. The acquisition of Danbird Logistics by Shentong Express is highlighted as a significant step towards improving market dynamics [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests actively seizing opportunities presented by the "de-involution" phase, recommending companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the ongoing consolidation in the express delivery sector, with Shentong Express planning to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, aiming to enhance its market position and differentiate itself from competitors [5] - The report emphasizes the recovery in air travel demand and the potential for long-term growth in the aviation sector, driven by macroeconomic improvements and a favorable supply-demand dynamic [13] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from rising oil transport demand due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with a positive outlook for dry bulk shipping as well [14] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - Shentong Express is set to acquire Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan, which is expected to enhance its market share by 0.8 percentage points and improve brand influence [5] - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with terminal prices at historical lows, limiting further downside [13] - Key companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing low long-term supply growth, but demand is anticipated to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [13] - The report notes that the overall passenger transport volume in civil aviation reached 370 million in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [7] - Key companies to focus on include China Southern Airlines, Air China, and HNA Group [13] Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) reached a new high of 2258 points, up 119% year-to-date, driven by improved consumption expectations and seasonal factors [9] - The report suggests a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment [14] - Companies to watch include China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [14] Ports - China's port cargo throughput increased by 2.43% week-on-week, reaching 26.677 million tons, while container throughput rose by 2.61% to 6.64 million TEU [12][77] - The report highlights the stable cash flow and growth potential of port operations, suggesting a focus on companies like Tangshan Port and Qingdao Port [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volume increasing by 1.11% and highway freight traffic up by 0.67% [12] - The report indicates that road passenger traffic decreased by 3.92%, while freight volume increased by 2.86% [45]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price decline, which may lead to a more stable competitive environment. The focus on leading e-commerce express companies is expected to enhance their market share and catalyze valuation recovery opportunities, while the timing for cyclical bottoming in express delivery services is also favorable [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 15.8% year-on-year, with a total of 16.87 billion packages expected to be delivered by the end of the month. The second quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year growth of 17.3%, driven by e-commerce promotions and convenient return policies [1][2]. - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain a growth rate exceeding 8% for the entire year of 2025, surpassing the predictions made by the postal administration [1]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the business volume growth rates for major listed companies were as follows: SF Express +31.8%, YTO Express +19.3%, Yunda Express +7.4%, and Shentong Express +11.1%. For Q2 2025, the growth rates were +31.2%, +21.8%, +11.2%, and +16.0% respectively [1][2]. - The single-package revenue for the four major companies in June 2025 showed declines: SF Express -13.3%, YTO Express -6.7%, Yunda Express -4.5%, and Shentong Express -1.0%. In Q2 2025, the declines were -13.7%, -6.3%, -5.4%, and -2.5% respectively [3]. Market Concentration - The concentration of the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 index reaching 87.0 in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market shares for major companies in June 2025 were SF Express 8.7%, YTO Express 15.6%, Yunda Express 12.9%, and Shentong Express 12.9% [2]. Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry's revenue grew by 9.0% year-on-year in June 2025, while the single-package revenue decreased by 5.8%. In Q2 2025, the revenue growth was 9.3%, with a single-package revenue decline of 6.8%. The narrowing of the price decline indicates a potential easing of price competition [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the express delivery industry [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the decline in express delivery prices has narrowed, indicating a potential for healthier competition in the industry. The focus is on leading e-commerce express companies, which are expected to see an increase in market share and valuation recovery opportunities [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 16.87 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.8%. The revenue for the same month was 126.32 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year. The average revenue per piece was 7.49 yuan, down 5.9% [5][8]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the business volume growth rates for major listed companies were as follows: SF Express +31.8%, YTO Express +19.3%, Yunda Express +7.4%, and Shentong Express +11.1%. For Q2 2025, the growth rates were +31.2%, +21.8%, +11.2%, and +16.0% respectively [5][30][31]. Market Concentration - The market concentration index (CR8) for the express delivery industry was 87.0 in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market shares for major companies in June 2025 were: SF Express 8.7%, YTO Express 15.6%, Yunda Express 12.9%, and Shentong Express 12.9% [5][27][31]. Price Trends - The report notes that the decline in express delivery prices has slowed down, with the industry experiencing a 9.0% year-on-year revenue growth in June 2025, while the average revenue per piece decreased by 5.8% [5][8]. Long-term Outlook - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is moving towards healthier competition, with leading companies expected to gain market share. The regulatory environment is anticipated to support this trend, ensuring a controlled level of price competition [41][52]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading e-commerce express companies for potential valuation recovery opportunities, particularly highlighting SF Express as a key investment target [55][56].