Core Viewpoint - The conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell escalates following the release of July's CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, below the expected 2.8% [1][3] Economic Data Summary - July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value but lower than market expectations [1] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, down from the previous 0.3% [1] - Following the CPI release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged, with over 90% probability indicated by CME FedWatch Tool [1] Political Pressure Summary - President Trump publicly demanded an immediate rate cut from Powell, criticizing him for being slow to act [3] - Trump threatened to advance a significant lawsuit against Powell related to the management of the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation [3] - Historically, Trump has consistently called for rate cuts and criticized Powell after each inflation report, employment data release, and Fed decision since taking office [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in July [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest month-on-month increase in six months [1] - The housing cost index contributed significantly to the CPI increase, with a year-on-year rise of 3.7% and a month-on-month rise of 0.2% [1] Inflation Drivers - Beef prices saw a notable increase of 1.5% month-on-month, influenced by drought conditions affecting ranch production and tariffs raising import beef prices [1] - Energy prices decreased, with the energy price index falling by 1.6% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, partially offsetting inflationary pressures [1] - Gasoline prices decreased by 2.2% month-on-month, contributing to the overall decline in energy prices [1] Economic Implications - The inflation data indicates a slowdown in rent increases and a drop in gasoline prices, which may mitigate the impact of tariff measures [1] - Many businesses are likely absorbing a significant portion of the tariff costs, suggesting potential implications for pricing strategies [1] - The stability in July's inflation data keeps the possibility of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month on the table [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically analyzing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends for July 2023. Core Insights 1. **CPI Trends**: - China's headline CPI decreased to 0.0% year-over-year (yoy) in July from +0.1% yoy in June, primarily due to deepening food deflation [1][3] - Month-on-month, the CPI fell to +0.4% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in July compared to +1.8% in June [3] 2. **Food Inflation**: - Year-over-year food inflation dropped to -1.6% in July from -0.3% in June, driven by significant declines in fresh vegetable prices [4] - Pork prices fell by 9.5% yoy in July, while fresh vegetable prices decreased by 7.6% yoy [4] 3. **Non-Food Inflation**: - Non-food CPI inflation increased to +0.3% yoy in July from +0.1% in June, with household item prices rising by 1.2% yoy [5][7] - Fuel costs saw a decline of 9.0% yoy in July [5] 4. **PPI Trends**: - Headline PPI remained unchanged at -3.6% yoy in July, with ongoing deflationary pressures primarily from upstream sectors [9] - Month-over-month PPI inflation rose to -1.8% (annualized, seasonally adjusted) in July from -2.9% in June [9] 5. **Sector Contributions to PPI**: - The deflation in PPI was attributed to price declines in coal mining, petroleum, ferrous metals, and chemicals, with downstream sectors also contributing negatively [9] Additional Important Insights - The report suggests that the current "anti-involution" policies in China may not lead to a rapid PPI reflation without broad-based demand stimulus [1] - The NBS indicated that falling export prices due to US tariffs and seasonal declines in raw materials contributed to the deep PPI deflation [9] - Core CPI inflation, excluding food and energy, edged up to +0.8% yoy in July, indicating some resilience in non-food sectors [8] This summary encapsulates the critical data and insights from the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese economy, particularly focusing on inflation metrics and their implications for future economic policies and investment considerations.

Core Insights - Significant downward revision of employment growth and adjustments in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculation methods have raised questions about the reliability of official statistics [5][6][19] - Bank of America (BofA) maintains that these data remain reliable but advises caution regarding initial employment figures [6][11] - Alternative data cannot replace official statistics but can provide a reasonable check on the data [7][24] Employment Data - The recent downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June is the largest adjustment outside of the pandemic period [8][11] - BofA suggests evaluating these revisions in terms of both absolute numbers and their proportion of total employment, indicating that the latest adjustments, while significant, are not as abnormal when viewed in context [11][12] - The response rate for surveys has declined, which may lead to larger-than-normal revisions, but the revisions typically fall within a 90% confidence interval [13][14][16] Consumer Price Index (CPI) - The increase in imputed data within the CPI is a concern, but BofA believes there is no immediate cause for alarm [20][21] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has had to rely more on imputed prices due to reduced data collection, which could potentially distort inflation readings [20][21] - BofA's analysis indicates that the reduction in CPI sample collection has not significantly impacted overall CPI changes, with discrepancies being less than 1 percentage point [21] Alternative Data Sources - In light of concerns over government data reliability, BofA identifies several alternative data sources, such as Homebase, ADP, and credit card spending data, which can provide insights into labor market conditions and consumer spending [24][26][27] - While these alternative data sources are useful supplements, BofA emphasizes that there is no perfect substitute for official statistics [28] GDP Tracking Adjustments - BofA has revised its second-quarter GDP growth estimate down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, influenced by lower-than-expected construction spending and downward revisions in payroll data [29][30] - The adjustments in GDP tracking reflect changes in employment data, construction spending, and inventory levels, indicating a more cautious economic outlook [29][30]

巴基斯坦7月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨4.1%。 ...

Group 1 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a revised increase of 0.3% in May, indicating the mildest annual increase since September last year at 2.3% year-on-year [1] - Core PPI, excluding food, energy, and trade services, also remained flat, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, marking the smallest increase since the end of 2023 [1] - Service costs played a crucial role in suppressing inflation, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, largely driven by a 4.1% drop in travel accommodation prices and a 2.7% decline in air passenger service prices, the largest drop since May of last year [1] Group 2 - The report is significant for the Federal Reserve as some components of the PPI are directly used to calculate the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation indicator for the Fed [2] - Current market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the July meeting to observe the actual impact of trade policies [2] - There are signs of tariff-related inflation in the PPI, with durable goods costs rising significantly for two consecutive months, marking the largest cumulative increase in three years [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June unexpectedly remained flat, influenced by a stronger dollar, leading to a decline in gold prices [1] - Economists suggest that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and PPI data indicate a projected month-over-month increase of 0.27% in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is better than initial concerns during the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Trump [1] - Despite these indicators, there are concerns regarding the potential impact of increased tariffs set for August 1, as businesses may have depleted their pre-tariff inventories [1]

Core Insights - The June PPI data in the U.S. unexpectedly fell short of expectations, primarily due to a decline in service prices, indicating that businesses are absorbing some of the costs associated with increased import tariffs [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month, and the core PPI also showed no change, both below market forecasts [1] - The impact of tariff increases has permeated various categories, including home goods, appliances, and leisure products, as indicated by the recently released CPI data [1] - Despite moderate inflation so far this year, many economists anticipate that inflation will gradually rise as more companies attempt to offset the increasing trade costs [1]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in prices of various goods, including coffee, audio equipment, and household items, has led to a rise in inflation in June, indicating that the costs of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are being passed on to consumers [1][2]. Inflation Data - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in June, translating to an annualized rate of approximately 3.5%, compared to a mere 0.1% increase in May [1]. - The core inflation, excluding food and energy, was reported to be lower than expected, suggesting that inflation is being stabilized under Trump's administration [3]. Tariff Impact - Economists predict that the delayed effects of tariffs will accelerate inflation over the summer, with significant price increases observed in imported goods such as audio equipment, which saw a monthly increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, marking the highest increase on record for this category [1][5]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to continue influencing inflation, with estimates suggesting that new tariffs could increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price level by approximately 0.4 percentage points if fully transmitted [4]. Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut in September becoming uncertain due to rising inflation concerns [2][3]. - The Boston Fed President warned that rising import taxes will likely continue to push inflation higher while suppressing growth and employment [2]. Consumer Behavior - Despite rising prices, strong balance sheets for businesses and households may help absorb the shock of tariffs, potentially limiting negative impacts on the labor market and economic growth [2]. - The price increases in categories such as household goods and entertainment indicate that the effects of tariffs are gradually permeating through the economy [3][5].

Core Insights - In June, U.S. rental prices increased by 0.2%, which is lower than the increases of 0.4% in April and 0.3% in May [1] - The overall trend of rental price increases has been gradually slowing over the past three years, which is beneficial for the overall inflation level, as rent accounts for approximately 35% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The improvement in rental data for the month is primarily attributed to a decline in hotel prices, while residential rental prices remain stable and moderate [1] Rental Price Breakdown - The "Owner's Equivalent Rent," which measures the cost of self-owned housing, rose by 0.3%, remaining unchanged from May [1] - The "Primary Residential Rent," which pertains to rental properties, also increased by 0.2%, consistent with the figures from May [1]