分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 报告统计时间为2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变，建议关注红利低波、银行、 公用事业等方向。待市场出现阶段性调整或政策发力紧迫性提高时再积极布局，可关注AI+、 TMT、电子等科技方向，以及旅游、文娱、体育等新型消费的逢低布局机会。 权益市场， 上周，市场风格方面，小盘及成长风格表现强势；风格波动方面，市场风格波动处于 低位，风格较为稳定。市场结构方面，上周，行业指数超额收益离散度继续下降，成分股上涨比 例先升后降，行业轮动速度快速上升；交易集中度方面，前100个股成交额占比及前5行业成交额 占比继续维持在低位，显示行业热点较为分散。市场活跃度方面，上周，市场波动率从高位迅速 下降，换手率亦快速下行。 商品市场方面， 上周，趋势强度表现分化，能化、黑色板块延续其较强的趋势性，有色、农产 品、贵金属板块趋势性较弱；基差动量方面，有色、农产品板块维持高位；波动率方面，各板块 波动率从高位大幅下降；流动性方面，各板块流动性表现 ...

2025 年 05 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 金融工程周报 关税下调之后，市场分歧仍存 市场环境因子跟踪周报（2025.05.09） 分析师：柏逸凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524100001 电话：021-20321081 邮箱：baiyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 向 — 市 场 环 境 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.04.30）》2025-05-07 2、《关税问题反复，大盘延续稳健—市场 中 观 因 子 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.04.27 ）》 2025-04-29 3、《市场进入降波阶段，风格稳定性上升 —量化数据看板跟踪周报（2025.04.20）》 2025-04-23 风 险 特 征 解 析 — 量 化 策 略 视 点 》 2024-12-17 投资要点 报告统计时间为 2025.05.05-2025.05.09。 分析师：程秉哲 静观其变，谋而后动。关税下调之后，可适度控制仓位，静观其变， ...

- The report covers the period from 2025.05.05 to 2025.05.09[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Stock Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Market Style Factors - **Construction Idea**: Track the performance and volatility of different market styles such as small-cap vs. large-cap and growth vs. value[11] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the performance of small-cap and large-cap stocks - Measure the performance of growth and value stocks - Calculate the volatility of these styles - **Evaluation**: The market style factors showed a strong performance for small-cap and growth styles, with low volatility[11][13] 2. **Factor Name**: Market Structure Factors - **Construction Idea**: Analyze the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices and the concentration of trading volume[11] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the dispersion of excess returns among industry indices - Measure the proportion of trading volume of the top 100 stocks and the top 5 industries - **Evaluation**: The market structure factors indicated a decrease in the dispersion of excess returns and low concentration of trading volume[11][13] 3. **Factor Name**: Market Activity Factors - **Construction Idea**: Track the market's volatility and turnover rate[12] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the market's volatility - Calculate the turnover rate - **Evaluation**: The market activity factors showed a rapid decline in both volatility and turnover rate[12][13] Commodity Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Commodity Trend Strength - **Construction Idea**: Measure the trend strength of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the trend strength for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The trend strength was strong for energy and black metals, while weak for non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals[25][28] 2. **Factor Name**: Basis Momentum - **Construction Idea**: Track the basis momentum of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the basis momentum for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products - **Evaluation**: The basis momentum remained high for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products[25][28] 3. **Factor Name**: Commodity Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measure the volatility of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the volatility for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The volatility significantly decreased from high levels across all sectors[25][28] 4. **Factor Name**: Commodity Liquidity - **Construction Idea**: Track the liquidity of different commodity sectors[25] - **Construction Process**: - Measure the liquidity for energy, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and precious metals - **Evaluation**: The liquidity showed mixed performance across different sectors[25][28] Option Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Implied Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measure the implied volatility of options on different indices[33] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the implied volatility for options on the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices - **Evaluation**: The implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options significantly decreased, indicating a divergence in market views on small-cap stocks[33][34] Convertible Bond Market Factors 1. **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Premium - **Construction Idea**: Measure the premium of convertible bonds[35] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the premium for convertible bonds priced around 100 yuan - **Evaluation**: The premium showed a slight adjustment, with the market valuation at a moderately high level[35][37] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Market Style Factors**: - Small-cap and growth styles showed strong performance with low volatility[11][13] 2. **Market Structure Factors**: - Decrease in excess return dispersion and low trading volume concentration[11][13] 3. **Market Activity Factors**: - Rapid decline in market volatility and turnover rate[12][13] 4. **Commodity Trend Strength**: - Strong trend for energy and black metals, weak for others[25][28] 5. **Basis Momentum**: - High basis momentum for non-ferrous metals and agricultural products[25][28] 6. **Commodity Volatility**: - Significant decrease in volatility across all sectors[25][28] 7. **Commodity Liquidity**: - Mixed liquidity performance across sectors[25][28] 8. **Implied Volatility**: - Significant decrease in implied volatility for SSE 50 and CSI 1000 options[33][34] 9. **Convertible Bond Premium**: - Slight adjustment in premium, moderately high market valuation[35][37]

会谈利好下，昨日港股科技股大幅拉升，但今日早盘回调震荡。数据显示，今日上午南向资金净买入港 股超27亿，又双叒叕上演每调买机。 历史数据显示，相关红利指数在市场弱势期往往跑赢大盘指数，叠加当前全球利率中枢下移，10年期国 债收益率处于低位，都使得高股息资产更具吸引力。 以恒生港股通高股息低波动指数为例，其最新股息率超过8.5%，远超A股及多数固收产品。且指数ETF 产品如港股红利低波ETF（520550）能够通过持续分红回馈现金流，逆周期特性为大家提供了长期配置 的底气，安全感直接拉满。 从收益表现看，港股红利低波ETF（520550）标的指数近三年累计回报跑赢恒生指数，并在市场震荡中 展现出较强的抗跌性。资料显示，该ETF是月月评估分红机制，并且已经于昨日启动首次分红，拟每10 份派发现金红利0.02元。 不过港股红利资产倒是依旧保持强势，低费率$港股红利低波ETF(SH520550)$虽然开盘时也有所回落， 但探底水下后就快速反弹，午盘收涨0.2%。 资金面显示，该ETF近日持续吸金，最近三个交易日实现净流入超1.01亿元，显示资金仍旧偏爱红利。 没办法，虽然会谈结果确实对推动市场情绪有很大作用，但4月份 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 2.1 什么是红利低波100指数 ？ 红利低波100指数 （ 代码 ： 930955 ） 是中证红利低波动100指数的简称 ， 由中证指数有限公司于 2017年5月26日发布 ， 是一只以 " 高股息和低波动 " 为核心逻辑的指数 。 作者： 王博雅投资 来源：雪球 1 引言 红利低波100指数是仅有的2个五星级红利指数之一 。 它可以看做中证红利的升级版 ， 在保持优秀分散性 的情况下实现了更高的收益和更低的波动 ， 因此在市场上备受关注 。 图1 沪深300 、 中证红利与红利低波指数全收益对比 在之前 ， 我已经对追踪中证红利的基金进行了分析。 今天我将对红利低波100指数进行简介 ， 然后从 费用 、 规模 、 流动性 、 收益与分红频率 等几个关键角 度 ， 对红利低波100ETF进行横评 ， 看看谁最好 ！ 2 红利低波100指数简介 红利低波100指数构成逻辑如下 ： 1 中证全指中过去一年日均成交金额前 80%的公司 。 这是为了避免流动性过差 。 2 过去三年连续现金分红 。 这是为了确保公司具有良好的分红 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that 17 equity star advisory portfolios collectively reported negative returns over the past month, with only 8 maintaining positive returns in the first four months of the year [1][2] - The top three performing advisory portfolios have shifted their strategies towards defensive positions, increasing allocations in consumer sectors and undervalued assets, reflecting differing responses to market volatility [1][2] - The average return of the 17 equity star advisory portfolios was 0.22%, with the best-performing portfolio, "Yinhua Tianji - Qiaoqiao Ying," leading with a return of 7.65% in the first quarter, focusing on hard technology, medical healthcare, and basic consumer sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The "Yinhua Tianji - Qiaoqiao Ying" portfolio made adjustments in late April, increasing its allocation to consumer sectors while balancing technology categories, and reducing the proportion of index funds [2][3] - The "Jihua Jinqu" portfolio also made adjustments in late April, reducing exposure to bonds and low-volatility assets while increasing investments in undervalued sectors like pharmaceuticals and real estate [3][4] - The "Zhongou Super Stock All-Star Portfolio" conducted a rebalancing in early April, maintaining an overweight position in growth styles while optimizing specific holdings due to macroeconomic uncertainties [4] Group 3 - The global asset direction advisory portfolios showed significant performance divergence, with an average return of approximately -0.62% over the past month, and only 9 out of 27 portfolios reporting gains [4][5] - The "Guotai Jinqi Global Allocation Portfolio" achieved the highest return of 11.84% in the first four months, focusing on the Hong Kong stock market and sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and gold [5] - The "Time Traveler Portfolio" completed its first rebalancing since 2025 in late April, shifting from high-volatility tech investments to lower-volatility index funds due to anticipated increases in U.S. stock market volatility [5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector's profitability has significantly declined in 2024 due to falling coal prices and regional safety supervision factors, but leading companies are increasing their dividend payout ratios to return value to investors [1][2][3]. Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - The overall net profit of the coal sector decreased by 18% year-on-year in 2024, with total coal production of 1.236 billion tons, a growth of 0.49%, which is lower than the national coal production growth rate [2]. - The total revenue and costs for the sector changed by -4.64% and -0.11% respectively, with a gross profit margin of 23.62%, down by 4.66 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The total net profit for the sector was approximately 146.02 billion yuan, primarily impacted by declining coal prices and reduced sales volume [2]. Group 2: Dividend and Capital Expenditure - The overall cash dividend rate for listed coal companies in 2024 was 61.24%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points year-on-year, despite total cash dividends decreasing by 14.68% to 89.506 billion yuan [3]. - Capital expenditures for the sample companies in 2024 amounted to 179.641 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.60% [3]. - Operating cash flow for the sample companies was 250.7 billion yuan, while investment and financing cash flows were -220.6 billion yuan and -112.1 billion yuan respectively, with free cash flow declining by 51.6% to 98.2 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance Insights - In Q1 2025, coal prices fell by 22.22% year-on-year, leading to a 29% decline in overall net profit for the sector [4]. - The total production and sales volume for listed coal companies changed by +3.10% and -0.99% respectively, with net profit approximately 28.683 billion yuan, down by about 29.08% year-on-year [4]. - The sales, management, and financial expense ratios were 0.92%, 7.83%, and 3.01%, showing slight year-on-year increases [4]. Group 4: Short-term Outlook - The supply pressure in the coal industry is expected to ease, with initial cost support indicating a potential bottom for coal prices, which may rebound in Q2 2025 [5][6]. - Weak demand from thermal power and accelerated supply have contributed to a loose supply situation, but signs of demand recovery are emerging, particularly in non-electric sectors [5]. - The industry sentiment may improve as coal prices approach a bottom, with expectations for a rebound in prices later in the year [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - Despite the overall decline in Q1 2025 performance, the coal price is expected to find support at the bottom, making leading companies with attractive dividend levels worth considering for investment [8]. - The anticipated release of price pressure in Q2 could lead to improved sector performance, with leading companies likely to generate excess returns due to favorable policies and market management [8].

中信证券表示，2024年，受煤价下行以及区域性安监因素影响，煤炭板块盈利整体显著下滑，板块经营 性现金流以及自由现金流也有一定收缩，但煤炭企业在业绩下行的背景下整体分红比例有所提升，显示 龙头公司积极回报投资者的态度。2025Q1，煤价下行继续拖累板块业绩表现。展望全年，我们认为煤 价底部依然有支撑，需求端的压力也已阶段性定价，若后续煤价企稳回暖，长期具备"红利低波"属性的 公司仍然值得青睐。 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Capital Flows of Exchange-Traded Index Funds [1] - Data Date: April 21 - April 25, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Jin Ling [1] - Report Date: April 28, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the capital flow, fund scale, and weekly price change data of domestic passive stock funds, overseas index funds, and other types of index funds from April 21 to April 25, 2025, helping investors understand the market dynamics of different types of index funds [4][5][6] Summary by Category Domestic Passive Stock Funds - **Composite Concepts**: Among them, the CSI 1000 had a weekly price increase of 1.95% and a net capital inflow of 594 million yuan; the Science and Technology Innovation 100 had a weekly price increase of 0.69% and a net capital inflow of 391 million yuan; while the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 had a weekly price increase of 0.38% but a net capital outflow of 2.783 billion yuan [4] - **Industry Themes**: The large - technology concept had a weekly price increase of 1.10% and a net capital inflow of 4.849 billion yuan; the large - health concept had a weekly price increase of 2.36% and a net capital inflow of 479 million yuan; the large - consumer concept had a weekly price increase of 0.36% and a net capital outflow of 1.397 billion yuan [4] - **Style Strategies**: The dividend - low - volatility concept had a weekly price increase of 0.76% and a net capital inflow of 87 million yuan; the growth concept had a weekly price increase of 1.84% and a net capital outflow of 109 million yuan [4] - **Enterprise Nature**: The China Special Valuation (C - Special Valuation) concept had a weekly price change of - 0.05% and a net capital outflow of 242 million yuan [4] - **Region**: The regional concept had a weekly price increase of 1.62% and a net capital outflow of 600,000 yuan [4] Overseas Index Funds - **Composite Concepts**: The Nasdaq 100 had a weekly price increase of 4.79% and a net capital inflow of 1.052 billion yuan; the S&P 500 had a weekly price increase of 3.35% and a net capital inflow of 366 million yuan; the Nikkei 225 had a weekly price increase of 1.50% and a net capital outflow of 16 million yuan [5] - **Industry Themes**: The Hong Kong Stock Technology concept had a weekly price increase of 3.73% and a net capital inflow of 553 million yuan; the China Internet concept had a weekly price increase of 5.22% and a net capital outflow of 51 million yuan; the Hong Kong Stock Medical concept had a weekly price increase of 9.53% and a net capital outflow of 3.053 billion yuan [5] - **Style Strategies**: The dividend concept had a weekly price increase of 1.18% and a net capital inflow of 200,000 yuan; the dividend - low - volatility concept had a weekly price increase of 1.85% and a net capital inflow of 100,000 yuan [5] Other Types of Index Funds - **Bond Funds**: Among interest - rate - related bond funds, the 10 - year bond fund had a weekly price increase of 0.05% and a net capital inflow of 3 million yuan; the 5 - 10 - year bond fund had a weekly price change of - 0.04% and a net capital outflow of 195 million yuan [6] - **Commodity Funds**: The gold fund had a weekly price change of - 0.70% and a net capital inflow of 1.8109 billion yuan; the non - ferrous metal fund had a weekly price increase of 1.70% and a net capital outflow of 400,000 yuan [6] - **Index - Enhanced Funds**: The CSI 500 index - enhanced fund had a weekly price increase of 1.92% and a net capital outflow of 18 million yuan; the GEM index - enhanced fund had a weekly price increase of 2.45% and a net capital outflow of 500,000 yuan [6]

数据显示，截至2025年3月31日，沪深300红利低波动指数前十大权重股分别为中国神华、格力电器、大 秦铁路、中国石化、宝钢股份、双汇发展、宁沪高速、海螺水泥、华域汽车、中国电信，前十大权重股 合计占比37.95%。 今年一季度，尽管红利指数出现一些震荡，但红利基金仍然受到资金青睐，规模创历史新高。Wind数 据显示，截至今年一季度末，红利基金总规模达2513.67亿元，较去年四季度末增加约270亿元。 中信证券研报指出，"对等关税"政策的实施直接引发全球资本避险模式，风险资产持续大幅下跌，避险 资产或成较大赢家，关税风暴所带来的催化与红利基本面的坚实逻辑有望形成向上共振。 没有股票账户的场外投资者可通过对应的沪深300红利低波动ETF联接基金（007606）把握投资机会。 截至2025年4月28日 10:52，沪深300红利低波动指数上涨0.94%，成分股宝钢股份上涨5.72%，格力电器 上涨4.09%，国投电力上涨2.34%，江苏银行上涨1.81%，华能水电上涨1.80%。红利低波ETF基金 (515300)涨近1%。 流动性方面，红利低波ETF基金盘中成交2287.42万元。规模方面，红利低波ETF基金 ...