Core Viewpoint - The ongoing uncertainty continues to exert pressure on economic growth expectations according to the Bank of England Governor Bailey [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England highlights that persistent uncertainty is a significant factor affecting the outlook for economic growth [1]

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU and Mexico, effective August 1, and a 35% tariff on Canadian products [1] - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU will extend the suspension period for countermeasures against US tariffs until early August, emphasizing a preference for negotiation [3] - The UK economy has entered a recession for the second consecutive month, with May GDP declining by 0.1%, slightly better than April's 0.3% decline but still below economists' expectations [4] Group 2 - Brazil's Ministry of Finance raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.4% to 2.5% [5] - Global foreign exchange reserve managers shifted their risk-averse asset allocation from the Japanese yen to the Swiss franc in Q1, selling a record $94.3 billion worth of yen and buying $66.7 billion worth of Swiss francs, increasing the franc's share in global reserves to 0.76% [5] Group 3 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 279.13 points to 44,371.51, a decline of 0.63%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced declines [6] - COMEX gold futures rose by 1.34% to $3,370.30 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 4.74% to $39.08 per ounce [6] Group 4 - Light crude oil futures for August increased by $1.88 to $68.45 per barrel, a rise of 2.82%, while Brent crude for September rose by $1.72 to $70.36 per barrel, up 2.51% [7] - The US dollar index rose by 0.21% to 97.853, with fluctuations in exchange rates against the euro, pound, and yen noted [7]

美国非农数据是全球金融市场中的一个重要经济指标，通常于每个月的首周星期五公布，对市场的影响 深远，尤其是对现货黄金市场来说，非农数据的发布常常引发黄金价格的剧烈波动。因此，了解非农数 据及其与黄金价格之间的关联性，是投资者应对非农行情的必修课。本文中，领峰环球将详细介绍非农 数据的知识点，分析其与黄金价格的关系，并为投资者提供捕捉非农行情的实用建议。 一、非农数据是什么？ 非农数据是美国劳工部每月发布的一项重要经济报告，主要反映了美国境内非农业行业的新增就业人 数。具体来说，它包含了全美就业市场的综合表现，排除了政府部门、农业和自营职业的影响。因此， 非农数据对于衡量美国经济健康状况具有重要的参考价值。 非农数据的核心内容包括： 1.新增就业人数：指的是一个月内新增的非农业就业岗位数量。 理解非农数据与黄金价格之间的关系后，投资者可以通过以下几种方式把握非农期间的黄金交易机会。 2.失业率：反映劳动力市场中失业人口的比例。 3.平均小时工资：衡量劳动力市场中工资变化的趋势。 这些数据不仅反映了美国经济的就业情况，还能够揭示出潜在的经济增长动能，对金融市场具有重大影 响。投资者登录领峰环球官网、领峰环球官方AP ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced two significant adjustment phases in the past six months, driven by discrepancies in monetary policy expectations and fundamental outlooks [2] - The first adjustment occurred from February to March, where the anticipated "double reduction" policy did not materialize, leading to a tightening of the funding environment and a subsequent decline in bond prices [2] - The second adjustment was triggered in early April by unexpected increases in U.S. tariffs, raising concerns about the economic fundamentals and leading to a rapid strengthening of the bond market [2] Group 2 - Future variables that could disrupt the current market oscillation include a potential slowdown in economic growth, which may lead to a temporary strengthening of bonds [3] - If the market doubts the sustainability of short-term positive economic data, it could impact corporate capital expenditure and consumer confidence, potentially leading to a correction in economic growth expectations and a subsequent bond market rally [3] - A more proactive signal from the central bank could guide funding prices lower, which may lead to a decrease in short-term yields and open up space for long-term price increases [4] Group 3 - The resilience shown in the domestic economy during the first half of the year may lower policy expectations for the second half, and if fiscal and real estate policies exceed expectations, it could lead to an upward revision of fundamental outlooks [4] - The bond market is currently in a low interest rate and low spread environment, with institutional funds likely to engage in ongoing debates regarding the pace and intensity of easing measures [4] - In this oscillating market, flexibility in duration management and careful selection of investment products will be essential to enhance returns through periodic trading [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Vickie Chang's report analyzes four scenarios in which the Federal Reserve may implement monetary easing earlier than expected, highlighting that a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar will be the main trends across all scenarios [1][2]. Scenario Summaries Scenario 1: Downward Inflation Risk Drives Rate Cuts - If inflation data continues to exceed expectations or if the Fed believes the impact of tariffs is temporary, the market will lower the 2-year Treasury yield by 25 basis points [4]. - Market reactions include rising stock prices, declining bond yields, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [5][6]. Scenario 2: Declining Growth Expectations Drive Rate Cuts - A 50 basis point downward adjustment in U.S. economic growth expectations will fully drive the rate cut [7]. - This scenario may occur due to further deterioration in labor market and economic activity data, especially if the market doubts the limited damage from tariffs [8]. - In this case, both stock prices and bond yields will decline, with a slightly weaker dollar overall [9][10]. Scenario 3: Dovish Policy + Downward Growth Expectations - This scenario combines dovish policy impacts with negative growth shocks, pricing in both Fed easing and downward growth expectations [11][12]. - The U.S. stock market will see slight declines, with bond yields dropping more than in the previous scenarios, a steeper yield curve, and a broadly weaker dollar [13]. Scenario 4: Dovish Policy + Upward Growth Expectations - In this scenario, the market prices in Fed easing while also raising U.S. economic growth expectations by 50 basis points [14]. - Risk assets perform strongly, with significant stock market gains, slight declines in bond yields, and a moderately weaker dollar, particularly against cyclical currencies [15]. Consistent Trends Across Scenarios - Across all scenarios, a decline in yields, a weaker dollar, and an increase in gold prices are consistent trends [16]. - The direction of the stock market is highly dependent on accurate assessments of growth expectations, as is the strength of risk currencies against the dollar [16][17]. Market Pricing and Future Outlook - The market has begun to price in Fed easing, and if data supports this, the trend may continue [18]. - Current market pricing for growth is slightly above the one-year forecast, but there is still potential for upward movement if the focus shifts to 2026 growth outlooks [18]. - If growth conditions remain stable, a dovish shift from the Fed could benefit risk assets, although current growth expectations appear relatively full compared to April [19].

Core Viewpoint - The market is increasingly focused on when the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs analysts outlining four scenarios for potential monetary easing and their cross-asset impacts [1][3]. Group 1: Scenarios for Rate Cuts - Scenario 1: If inflation data continues to improve or if the Fed believes tariff impacts are temporary, the 2-year Treasury yield may decrease by 25 basis points, leading to a rise in the stock market and a weakening of the dollar [4]. - Scenario 2: A 50 basis point downward adjustment in U.S. economic growth expectations could drive rate cuts, particularly if labor market and economic activity data worsen [5][6]. - Scenario 3: A combination of dovish policy and negative growth expectations would result in a slight decline in the stock market and a more significant drop in bond yields [8]. - Scenario 4: If the market prices in both dovish policy and a 50 basis point increase in growth expectations, risk assets would perform strongly, with significant stock market gains [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Across all scenarios, a consistent trend of declining yields, a weaker dollar, and rising gold prices is expected, while stock market direction will depend heavily on growth expectations [10]. - The market has begun to price in the Fed's easing, and if data supports this, the trend may continue [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with risk assets showing a preference. The domestic economy remains stable, presenting mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets, and the policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the weak US dollar pattern will continue in the long run. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. - The overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the ideas of long - short allocation diverge. In the financial sector, the bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. For precious metals, risk appetite has recovered, leading to a short - term adjustment. Shipping sentiment has declined, and the duration of the increase in the loading rate in June should be monitored. In the black building materials sector, the performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. The low inventory reality and weak demand expectations in the non - ferrous and new materials sector lead to continued oscillations. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil remains stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. In the agricultural sector, the substantial progress of Sino - US negotiations is beneficial for the market [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future. This week, the long - term inflation expectation has stabilized, the short - term inflation expectation has risen, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic fundamentals have changed little this week, with both internal and external demand showing some resilience. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the infrastructure physical workload has decreased seasonally. At the local level, the issuance of special bonds has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds from the central government will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Stock index options: Sellers need to wait for the inflection point of the decline in volatility, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Treasury bond futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment fades, and the price remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Coking coal: Transaction conditions improve, but confidence is still insufficient, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Other varieties: Most varieties are in a state of oscillation, while soda ash is expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a state of oscillation, while zinc is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, and nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation and decline. - LPG: Weak oscillation due to geopolitical easing. - Other varieties: Different varieties have different short - term judgments, such as oscillation, oscillation and rise, or oscillation and decline [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in a state of oscillation, with different influencing factors and short - term trends [9].

Group 1: Key Events - On June 16, the White House announced a trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, which includes a quota of 100,000 vehicles per year for U.S. imports from the UK, with a 10% tariff rate [1] - On June 17, the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy interest rate at around 0.5% and slow down the pace of bond purchase reductions, currently reducing by approximately 400 billion yen per quarter [2] - On June 18, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, while lowering economic growth forecasts for the U.S. [1][2] Group 2: Economic Data - Japan's exports fell for the first time in eight months in May, with exports to the U.S. down 11.1% year-on-year to 1.51 trillion yen, driven by declines in automotive and automotive parts exports [5] - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone rose significantly to 35.3 in June, up from 11.6, with Germany's index increasing to 47.5 from 25.2 [5] - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, the largest decline since March 2023, primarily due to decreased automobile purchases [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The Bank of England decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%, citing weak GDP growth and a soft labor market [2] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased by 0.9 basis points, while the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds fell by 1.6 basis points [10] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices fell by 3.76% to $75.78 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices increased slightly by 0.28% to $74.04 per barrel [12] - The CRB Commodity Index decreased by 0.59%, while the Baltic Dry Index dropped by 3.54% [12]

Group 1: Main Views - US economic performance is relatively robust with a reduced recession risk, and the implementation of the tax - cut bill could boost demand expectations; China's May economic data shows resilience, but real estate is a major drag on commodity chains [3] - This week, domestic commodities continued to rebound, driven by the conflict between Israel and Iran, China's economic resilience, good US economic data, and the Sino - US framework agreement. Commodities may continue to rebound in the short - term, but there are still differences among varieties [4] Group 2: Overseas Situation Analysis US - The US military's air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities may escalate the Middle East situation, affecting global supply chains and oil prices [4] - The Fed paused rate cuts in June. There are differences among committee members on rate - cut expectations. The new economic outlook downgrades growth expectations and raises inflation expectations. The Fed may cut rates late in 2025 [4] - US employment and inflation data are not bad, but there may be hidden concerns in the employment market, and the impact of tariffs on inflation has not fully emerged. Short - term inflation expectations are rising [4] Japan - The Bank of Japan paused rate hikes and plans to slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction. It is not optimistic about the economic and inflation outlook. There is a probability of rate cuts in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 3: Domestic Situation Analysis - In May, domestic macro - data showed a pattern of "weak investment, strong consumption". Economic growth still faces pressure, and new incremental policies are needed in the second half of the year. The central bank may cut rates, and fiscal policies will further strengthen [4] - Positive fiscal policies continue to be effective. A total of 162 billion yuan in central funds has been allocated in January and April, and another 138 billion yuan will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [4] - At the 2026 Lujiazui Forum, the central bank governor announced eight financial policy measures, the financial regulatory chief mentioned bank - insurance opening and support for Shanghai's financial center construction, and the CSRC chair proposed measures to reform the Sci - tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [27] Group 4: High - Frequency Data Tracking - In June, the operating rates of PTA plants, POY, etc. showed certain trends, with the PTA operating rate at 76% - 89% and other related data [34] - As of June 22, there were changes in some consumption - related data such as factory wholesale and retail, with year - on - year growth and decline rates [40] - In June, the average price of 28 key monitored vegetables, pork, and other agricultural products showed certain trends [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of risk - aversion sentiment, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to make long - term allocations for IH2509 and IF2509, and move positions from IM2506 to IM2509 as the June contract of IM is approaching maturity and its annualized basis rate is relatively high [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, most domestic and foreign indices declined this week. The Nasdaq rose 0.22%, the S&P 500 fell 0.15%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.08%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.74%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.55%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined, with sectors such as beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical biology falling more than 3%, while only a few sectors such as banking and communications rose [11][12]. Liquidity - In May, the growth rate of social financing was stable, and the growth rate of M2 declined slightly. The net MLF investment in May was 375 billion yuan, and the 10 - year government bond yield was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing remained relatively high, with government bond financing being an important support, but credit growth was still weak. The M2 growth rate declined slightly but remained stable overall, the M1 growth rate increased, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [22]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict led to the weakening of stock indices this week. The trading volume of the two markets shrank to around one trillion yuan. The number of new A - share accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, and in May continued to drop to 1.555 million [34]. Index Valuation - Index valuations are in the median range. As of June 20, 2025, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.64 with a quantile of 64.72, and the latest PE of the Wande All - A Index was 19.18 with a quantile of 01.82. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [51]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, food and beverage, and non - bank finance are relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 are relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are exactly the same, namely electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 has a higher weight [52].